外销快速增长,后续新品类是看点 科沃斯(603486) ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 71.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.73 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.85 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.79 | 最近 12 月市场表现 ----------- SAC 证书编号: S0160525060001 sungian@ctsec.com 分析师 于雪娇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080005 yuxj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《扫地机内外销增速亮眼,期间费用率有 所优化》 2025-10-25 2.《科沃斯品牌内外销高增,积极布局具身 智能》 2025-08-18 3. 《收入业绩高增,被忽视的新消费公司》 2025-07-11 核心观点 盈利预测 | 市神(人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,502 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the relay industry [2] Core Insights - The automotive relay industry is experiencing increased demand driven by the growth of both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, with significant applications in various automotive electrical systems [5][8] - The automotive industry's continuous growth is expected to boost the demand for automotive relays, with projections indicating that by 2025, vehicle production and sales in China will reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking a historical high [16] - The shift towards high-end and electric vehicles is anticipated to further drive the relay industry, as higher voltage and current requirements necessitate the use of high-voltage relays [18][33] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Relay Applications - Automotive relays are widely used in both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, controlling various electrical systems such as starting, air conditioning, lighting, and more [8] - In new energy vehicles, relays are also crucial for battery management systems and charging systems [5] 2. Demand Growth from Automotive Sales and High-End Development - The automotive market is projected to see stable growth, with new energy vehicles expected to account for over 50% of domestic new car sales by 2025, significantly influencing the relay demand [16] - The increasing complexity and requirements for high-end vehicles will lead to a higher number of relays being installed per vehicle, particularly in high-end models [15] 3. Key Companies in the Automotive Relay Industry - Meishuo Technology focuses on relay products and has a wide application range, including household appliances and automotive manufacturing [27] - Hongfa Technology is a leading company in the relay industry, producing a variety of relays and electrical products with a significant annual production capacity [31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the automotive relay industry is likely to experience steady growth, driven by increasing automotive sales and the rapid development of electric and intelligent vehicles, recommending attention to Meishuo Technology and Hongfa Technology [33]

. 1 2 1 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 任思雨 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 沃什么穷不是 浪尔完 1. 《存款搬家，新路径 》 2026-01-30 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 是不是沃什当选、沃什采取怎样的货币政策其实都不重要,重要的是，谁才 � 是当今的保罗 · 沃尔克?要解决美国的问题,只能靠颠覆性的技术进步,大幅 提高生产力,用更快的增长覆盖高额的债务。这也是美国在 80年代走出大滞 胎的根本原因。 ❖ 并不是沃尔克选择了时代，而是时代选择了沃尔克。1970年代开始的信息技 术革命的有效突破，才给沃尔克大幅加息整治通胀以及里根整顿财政纪律、 供给侧改革提供了最必要的条件和底气。没有信息技术革命的背景，沃尔克 和里根的政策可能也难以有效推行。所以，美联储其实并不重要，在 AI 技术 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - As of 4Q2025, the food and beverage sector's heavy stockholding ratio is 6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter[9] - The food and beverage sector ranks 7th among all industries in terms of heavy stockholding ratio, falling one position[9] - The total net asset size of the sample funds is approximately 3.98 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings valued at 240 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - Both active and passive funds reduced their allocations to the food and beverage sector, with active equity funds decreasing by 0.2 pct to 3.9% and passive index funds decreasing by 0.6 pct to 8.4%[15] - The allocation to the liquor sector decreased by 0.4 pct to 5.1%, while the allocation to consumer goods increased by 0.1 pct to 0.9%[19] Group 3: Stock Performance - Among the top 20 heavy stockholdings, only Kweichow Moutai remains in the food and beverage sector, with its holding ratio decreasing by 0.08 pct to 2.97%[23] - The leading liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw their holding ratios decline, while stocks in the consumer goods sector, such as Yurun Agriculture and Ximai Foods, experienced significant increases in holdings[27] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain and snack sectors, particularly during the Spring Festival period, which is expected to support industry improvement[29] - Key stocks to watch include those in the restaurant chain (e.g., Anjijia Foods, Angel Yeast) and snack sector (e.g., Wancheng Group, Wei Long) due to their potential for growth[29] Group 5: Risks - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in consumer spending, increased competition in the food and beverage industry, and potential food safety issues that could impact company operations and brand reputation[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The company, Shenghe Jingwei, is advancing its listing process on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, having submitted its prospectus and initiated the first round of inquiries [3] - The company aims to raise 4.8 billion yuan for projects related to three-dimensional multi-chip integration packaging and ultra-high-density interconnection technology, addressing the high growth demand in China's multi-chip integration packaging sector [3] - The advanced packaging industry for integrated circuits is experiencing rapid expansion, with the global market expected to grow from 101.47 billion USD in 2024 to 134.9 billion USD by 2029, driven by diverse downstream applications [3][22] - The company has established itself as a leader in the advanced packaging sector, being the largest provider of 12-inch Bumping capacity in mainland China and holding significant market shares in various advanced packaging technologies [3][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenghe Jingwei was founded in 2015 and has developed comprehensive advanced packaging services, focusing on 12-inch wafer processing and multi-chip integration packaging [7] - The management team consists of experienced professionals with extensive backgrounds in the semiconductor industry [10] Industry Development - The integrated circuit packaging and testing industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 101.47 billion USD [22] - The advanced packaging sector is expected to see a CAGR of 10.0%, with multi-chip integration packaging being the fastest-growing segment, projected to grow from 2.49 billion USD in 2019 to 8.18 billion USD by 2024 [25] Company Position in the Industry - Shenghe Jingwei holds the largest 12-inch Bumping capacity in mainland China and ranks first in revenue for 2.5D technology in the region, with an 85% market share [29] - The company provides full-process advanced packaging services for various high-performance chips, including those used in artificial intelligence and data centers [29] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.178 billion yuan and a net profit of 435 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [15] - The gross margins for the company's main business segments are 43.76% for wafer processing, 5.69% for wafer-level packaging, and 30.63% for multi-chip integration packaging [17] Customer Concentration - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 90.87% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, highlighting the competitive nature of the advanced packaging market [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor packaging industry is experiencing a price increase due to rising costs in testing and packaging services, with major players like Daymoon and Taiwanese firms initiating price hikes of 5%-20% and close to 30% respectively [5] - The demand for semiconductor packaging is driven by the expansion of data centers and the recovery of orders in industrial control, leading to high operational rates for packaging manufacturers [5] - Domestic companies are accelerating the development of 2.5D packaging technology, with significant advancements and production capabilities being established, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for domestic advanced packaging capacity expansion [5] - Key companies to watch include Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others that are positioned at the forefront of domestic computing power support [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance with fluctuations of -13%, 3%, 19%, 35%, 51%, and 67% in various sectors compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor packaging sector is facing structural supply-demand mismatches, compounded by rising prices of essential raw materials like gold, silver, and copper [5] - The 2.5D packaging technology is becoming mainstream, with leading global companies holding over 80% market share, while domestic firms are working to close the technology and capacity gaps [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key enterprises with advanced packaging capabilities and those in the supporting supply chain, including companies like Changchuan Technology and Jinhai Tong [5]

募资投资高端智能电动平台开发项目 江淮汽车(600418) 证券研究报告 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2026.01.28 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-01-28 | | 收盘价(元) | 53.30 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.84 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 21.84 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -10% 4% 18% 31% 45% 江淮汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 吴晓飞 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《与华为合作打造高端品牌，积极开拓海 外市场》 2025-08-26 2. 《尊界 S800 批量投产，大定突破 5000 台》 2025-06-19 3. 《营业收入有所下滑，持续深化外部合 作》 2025-04-08 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

利率| 非银流动性工具怎么看——从美国的 ON 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.29 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 汪梦涵 SAC 证书编号：S0160525030003 wangmh01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 再探超长债供需》 2026- 01-28 2. 《利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注》 2026-01-27 3. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 核心观点 ❖ 近期央行在多个场合表述"央行正探索在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性 安排"，结合美国 ONRRP 的背景和机制，我们认为新工具类似于 ONRRP 概率偏 低，更有可能是类似于前期 SFISF 的再贷款机制。 ❖ 美国的 ONRRP 成立的背景和关注点 美国隔夜逆回购协议工具（Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Facility， 下文简称 ON RRP）是美联储 ...

分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 核心观点 ❖ 联储议息会议维持利率不变、决议措辞偏鹰，但鲍威尔讲话基调温和。本次会 议利率按兵不动符合预期，决议对经济和就业的评估更乐观，但两位理事投 出反对票倾向降息。鲍威尔会后承认通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都有所回 落，淡化加息可能。短期内美债收益率曲线或呈现熊陡，美元指数维持弱势震 荡。预计短期内 10 年美债震荡区间可能在 4%~4.4%，美元指数震荡区间可 能在 96~101。人民币汇率在弱美元和结汇潮下有加速升值趋势，国内债市 "以我为主"，交易盘动能恢复，建议维持多头思维。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 决议偏鹰，发布会温和 ——美联储 1 月议息会议点评 联系人 陆星辰 luxc@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 再探超长债供需》 2026- 01-28 2. 《利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注》 2026-01-27 3. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 证券研究报 ...