Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Positive** rating for the computer industry [3] Core Views - The computer industry is experiencing a multi-dimensional resonance driven by technological innovation, economic cycles, industrial policies, and CapEx trends [5] - The industry is transitioning from the PC era to the AI era, with the Gartner Hype Cycle and Moore's Law playing pivotal roles in shaping the tech landscape [5] - The report highlights that AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving are key drivers of the industry's future growth [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from a double-click effect due to external and domestic interest rate cuts, low fund holdings, and the premium on domestic assets [6] Key Summaries by Section 1. Multi-dimensional Resonance in the Computer Industry - The Gartner Hype Cycle remains a constant in the evolution from the PC era to the AI era, with technological cycles shortening due to the "Super Moore's Law" [25] - Tech giants' CapEx is leading the industry direction, while economic cycles guide mid-term fluctuations, and industrial policies serve as crucial levers [25] - Historical trends show that macroeconomic cycles significantly impact the computer industry, with fiscal and industrial policies playing a key role during downturns [43] 2. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide a favorable external environment for the computer industry's valuation expansion [54] - Domestic interest rate cuts and improved liquidity are expected to support the industry's growth, with historical parallels seen in 2015 and 2019 [66] - The computer industry's PE (TTM) has entered a marginal expansion phase, with valuations expected to rise further due to AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving trends [59] 3. Alpha and Beta Tracks - AI is a critical driver of market growth, with scaling laws driving demand for computing power and domestic innovation [97] - AI applications are improving in quality, with productivity tools like Office and PDF being key areas of focus [7] - AI hardware innovations are emerging across various sectors, including PCs, smartphones, and robotics, while AI's energy consumption is driving demand for clean energy [7] - Smart driving, industrial intelligence, and financial IT are expected to exhibit strong Alpha characteristics, while sectors like Huawei's HarmonyOS and low-altitude economy are supported by strong policy backing [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI server-related companies and domestic AI chip manufacturers, such as **HaiGuang Information**, **Cambricon**, and **Inspur Information** [123] - Companies in the cooling, power supply, and high-performance storage sectors are also recommended due to the increasing demand for power and storage driven by computing power iterations [123] 5. Market Performance and Fund Holdings - The computer industry's fund holdings reached a four-year low in 3Q2024, with a marginal improvement in risk appetite [72] - The industry's PE has been grinding at a low level but is expected to rise rapidly due to policy-driven liquidity improvements [85] - High trading volumes in the bull market are amplifying the industry's performance, with the computer sector's trading activity showing relative strength [89]

社会服务 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.17 政策利好不断，推动内需回暖 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -31% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 社会服务 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号：S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《政策发力持续，关注顺周期标的》 2024-11-10 2. 《政策引导积极，消费整体受益》 2024-11-04 3. 《从"59 到 115"，黄金周到小长假》 2024-11-02 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 文旅：假期延长叠加冰雪游热度提升，四季度旅游有望维持景气。免税 方面关注顺周期下免税客单价修复逻辑，以及四季度起市内免税店开 业催化。回顾 2024 年 Q2 与 Q3，客单价是海南免税销售额下滑的重要 因素之一，目前顺周期预期下，海南旅游大盘有望得到修复，同时可以 展望客单价修复对于销售额回暖的带动。旅游出行方面，本轮顺周期 行情 OTA 受益于出行链热度提升，估值有望上调，建议关 ...

房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.17 房地产行业周报（2024 年第 46 周） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -22% -12% -1% 9% 19% 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 分析师 吴梦茹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524060001 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 45 周）》 2024-11-11 2. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 44 周）》 2024-11-04 3. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 43 周）》 2024-10-27 ❖ 风险提示：基本面不及预期，行业政策收紧，资金面收紧，个别企业出现信 用风险等 购房减税政策落地 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾：本周申万房地产指数下跌 8.92%，沪深 300 指数较上周下跌 3.29%，板块跑输沪深 300 指数 5.62pct，在 31 个板块中排第 31 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾：30 大中城市商品房成交面积 227 万 ...

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.17 宠物食品双十一增长亮眼，供应充足猪价下行 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -16% -7% 2% 10% 19% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《需求支撑不足猪价下行，10 月产能 回补仍慢》 2024-11-10 2. 《养殖链业绩环比改善，宠物食品盈 利能力增强》 2024-11-08 3. 《需求预期转好，畜禽价格支撑增强》 2024-11-04 农业重点数据跟踪周报 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价延续下行。供应相对充足，需求端实际支撑不足，猪价延续下 跌。中长期，产业情绪谨慎，产能回补较慢，企业仍有望持续实现盈利，持续推 荐生猪养殖。1）数量端：10 月能繁母猪存栏回补较慢。根据钢联统计，10 月 能繁母猪存栏量较月环比+0.39%（9 月+0.53%）。2）价格端：延续下行。11 月 14 日，商品猪出栏价为 16.63 元/kg，周环比-2.92%。相关标的：牧原股 份，温氏股份，巨星农牧，唐人神。 ...

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2024.11.17 供应充足猪价震荡下行，商品代苗价高位震荡 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -16% -7% 2% 10% 19% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《需求支撑不足猪价下行，10 月产能 回补仍慢》 2024-11-10 2. 《养殖链业绩环比改善，宠物食品盈 利能力增强》 2024-11-08 3. 《需求预期转好，畜禽价格支撑增强》 2024-11-04 ❖ 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，食品安全风险，动物疾病不确定风险，极端 灾害风险，饲料原材料波动风险 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------|-------|-------------------- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 商社 | 2025 | 年度策略 | | | | | | 物有复始，风起再航 | | | | | 财通商社 分析师：刘洋 S A C ： S 0 1 6 0 5 2 11 2 0 0 0 1 | | | | | | 日期： 2 0 2 4 . 11 . 1 7 | | | | 投资要点 财通商社 免税：当前免税板块业绩博弈核心分为三个维度。维度一：中免的海南免税修复与口岸免税/市内免税增量。前三季度海南离岛 免税持续承压，九月海口遭遇台风灾害，影响三季度业绩兑现，离岛免税仍处于修复阶段。维度二：王府井等免税运营商的市内 免税开店情况。维度三：海汽集团、海南发展、格力地产三个标的的免税资产注入预期。 旅游：目前假期延长预期+冰雪游政策催化+内需提振逻辑三者带动板块行情，可以关注冰雪游标的长白山，大连圣亚。低空经 ...

契税调降落地，家具销售回暖 轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.17 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -22% -12% -1% 9% 19% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《10 月家具社零同比+7.4%，换新效 果持续释放》 2024-11-15 2. 《地方化债政策落地，加大逆周期调 节力度》 2024-11-10 3. 《前 10 月家具出口额同增 7.2%，关 注轻工相关转债》 2024-11-10 核心观点 轻工行业周报 证券研究报告 本周行情回顾：本周（2024.11.11-2024.11.15）申万轻工指数收报 2037.77 点， 周涨跌幅为-3.68%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.38pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第 17。本周轻工制造细分板块普跌，文娱用品/包装印刷/造纸/家居用品分别- 0.39%/-2.73%/-4.07%/-5.06%。 房地产契税与增值税调降，降低购房成本。近日，三 ...

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.17 契税调整降低成本，关注家居相关转债 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -22% -12% -1% 9% 19% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《10 月家具社零同比+7.4%，换新效 果持续释放》 2024-11-15 2. 《地方化债政策落地，加大逆周期调 节力度》 2024-11-10 3. 《前 10 月家具出口额同增 7.2%，关 注轻工相关转债》 2024-11-10 核心观点 证券研究报告 契税调整降低成本，关注家居相关转债。近日，三部门发布《关于促进房 地产市场平稳健康发展有关税收政策的公告》，明确多项支持房地产市场发展 的税收优惠政策。公告明确，加大住房交易环节契税优惠力度，积极支持居民 刚性和改善性住房需求；降低土地增值税预征率下限，缓解房地产企业财务困 难。此外，明确与取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税、土地增值 税优惠政策，降低二手房交易成本，保持房地 ...

汽车 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.11.15 欧洲汽车市场分析报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -27% -18% -9% 0% 9% 18% 汽车 沪深300 分析师 邢重阳 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 10 月 新 能 源 汽 车 行 业 洞 察 》 2024-11-14 2. 《 10 月 份 中 国 车 市 运 行 回 顾 》 2024-11-12 3. 《10 月重卡行业洞察》 2024-11-02 证券研究报告 欧洲市场空间广阔，有望成为全新增长点 核心观点 ❖ 欧洲新能源汽车销量持续增长，渗透率逐步提升：2023 年，欧洲新能源 汽车销量同比增长超 20%至 330 万辆。欧洲新能源汽车市场增长较为强劲。 IEA 预计，2024 年欧洲新能源汽车销量同增 6%达到 350 万辆，新能源汽车的 渗透率有望提升至 25%。我们预计，2024-2028 年，欧洲新能源汽车销量将从 350 万辆升至 531 万辆 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [1] Core Views - In October 2024, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% YoY, with a month-on-month growth of 1.6 percentage points [2] - Furniture retail sales in October 2024 rose by 7.4% YoY, a significant increase from the previous month's growth of 0.4% [3] - The "replace old with new" policy has effectively boosted furniture sales, with 150 billion yuan in special treasury bonds allocated to support this initiative [3] - Residential property sales and completions showed narrowing declines, while new construction starts saw an expanded decline in October 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Furniture retail sales in October 2024 increased by 7.4% YoY, with a month-on-month growth of 7.0 percentage points [3] - Daily necessities retail sales grew by 8.5% YoY, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Apparel, footwear, and textile retail sales turned positive with an 8.0% YoY increase, compared to a -0.4% decline in the previous month [3] - Cultural and office supplies retail sales surged by 18.0% YoY, up 8.0 percentage points from the previous month [3] Real Estate Market - Residential property sales area declined by 0.5% YoY in October 2024, narrowing from an 11.0% decline in the previous month [4] - New residential construction starts fell by 25.7% YoY, with the decline expanding by 8.0 percentage points [4] - Residential completions dropped by 19.5% YoY, but the decline narrowed by 10.6 percentage points [4] - Policy measures, including reduced mortgage rates and unified down payment ratios, are expected to stabilize the real estate market [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommend leading companies such as Kuka Home (603816 SH) and Oppein Home (603833 SH) for their strategic advancements and operational efficiency [5] - Suggest monitoring DeRUCCI (001323 SZ), Easyhome (000785 SZ), and Sleemon (603008 SH) for their strong brand positioning and channel expansion [5]