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国元证券晨会纪要-20250411
国元香港· 2025-04-11 01:36
Group 1: Core Insights - The essential consumption sector shows resilience against tariff disruptions, supported by policy initiatives and a strong demand characteristic [1] - In March 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78%, while the essential consumption sector outperformed with a 6.99% increase, exceeding the index by 6.21 percentage points [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the valuation of the Hong Kong essential consumption sector remained at 18.6 times PE (TTM) and 2.26 times PB (LF) [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The snack industry led the gains in March, primarily driven by the performance of brands like Wei Long, while the liquor and dining sectors lagged behind [1] - The essential food and beverage sector, characterized by its necessity, is less affected by tariff policies, benefiting from national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials may face rising costs due to tariff impacts [1]
板块刚需属性叠加政策支持,无惧关税扰动
国元香港· 2025-04-10 09:37
Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on defensive high-dividend stocks and industry leaders with clear performance improvement trends, indicating a positive investment outlook for the essential consumer sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The essential consumer sector has shown resilience against tariff disruptions, supported by government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand. Companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials may face rising costs [5]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78% in March 2025, while the essential consumer sector outperformed with a 6.99% increase, indicating strong market performance [6][9]. - The report highlights significant monthly stock performance variations, with notable gains in companies like Wei Long (up 57.2%) and Gu Ming (up 44.2%), while others like Nayuki's Tea faced substantial declines (down 50.5%) [9][10]. Monthly Market Performance - The essential consumer sector maintained a valuation of 18.6x PE (TTM) and 2.26x PB (LF) as of March 31, 2025, reflecting stable valuation levels [6][7]. - The snack industry led the sector's performance in March, primarily driven by Wei Long's strong sales, while the liquor and dining sectors lagged [6][9]. Key Industry Data Pork Farming and Meat Products - As of March 31, 2025, the national price for external three-way crossbred pigs was 14.7 CNY/kg, down 3.3% year-on-year, with self-breeding profits at 51.83 CNY/head and losses of 27.13 CNY/head for purchased piglets [11]. Beer and Soft Drinks - In January-February 2025, beer production from large-scale enterprises was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9% year-on-year. The soft drink sector, however, saw a 3.8% increase in production to 26.847 million tons, benefiting from strong travel demand and innovative market dynamics [14][15]. Dairy Products - Dairy production in January-February 2025 was 454,500 tons, down 6.3% year-on-year. The average price of fresh milk was 3.08 CNY/kg, with expectations for stabilization in raw milk prices in the second half of the year [16][25]. Cost Environment - Key agricultural product prices showed mixed trends, with barley averaging 251.1 USD/ton (down 1.4% month-on-month) and corn at 2,269.4 CNY/ton (up 1.8% month-on-month) as of early April 2025 [28][29].
国元证券晨会纪要-20250410
国元香港· 2025-04-10 02:06
2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 【债券快讯】 【市场综述】 昨日港股各种重要指数全部上涨。截至 4 月 9 日,恒生指数上涨 0.68%,报收 20264.49 点。其 中大型股、中型股和小型股的涨跌幅分别为 0.59%、2.07%和 1.68%;与此同时,中资企业指数 和科技指数的涨跌幅度分别达到 1.78%和 2.64%。从行业来看,多数行业出现上涨:其中资讯科 技业和必需性消费表现相对较好,涨跌幅分别为 2.61%和 1.92%;综合企业和恒生综合行业指数 -能源业市场走势较弱,涨跌幅分别为-1.17%和-1.45%。内地股市方面,截至 4 月 9 日,上证指 数收盘价为 3186.81 点,上涨 1.31%;深证综指收盘价为 1823.61 点,上涨 1.77%。陆港股通 方面,截至 4 月 9 日,当日陆股通交易暂停;当日沪市港股通南下资金净流入 204.79 亿元,深市 港股通南下净流入为 133.78 亿元,共计港股通资金净流入 338.57 亿元。 美国三大股指集体收涨:截至 4 月 9 日,道琼斯工业指数报收 40608.45 点,较前一个交易日上 涨 7.87%;标普 500 指数报 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-20250409
国元香港· 2025-04-09 08:23
请务必阅读免责条款 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 【近期研报】 ➢ 关税政策冲击全球市场,短期震荡中静待机会-互联网行业周报(03.31- 04.03) 我们认为美国关税政策扰动对全球贸易体系带来广泛冲击,同时也为资本市场投入了一颗重磅炸 弹,为全球经济带来巨大的不确定性。目前互联网板块下跌幅度依然要大于其他板块,尽管 AI 加速行业发展长期趋势未变,但市场对互联网企业短期盈利增速的预期下调,包括 AI 基础设施 成本攀升、研发投入加大等,而宏观经济疲软导致 AI 技术商业化进度缓慢,因此当前港股互联 网板块"挤泡沫"行情依然会持续。美股方面,由于高额对等关税的影响,美国经济或将长期面临 严峻的滞涨风险,加征关税后意味着企业部门和消费者将承受更高的成本,企业利润和居民可支 配收入受到挤压,市场预期制造业短期难以快速回流美国市场,因此将产生较长的政策阵痛期, 对美元资产带来深远的负面影响。目前建议关注阅文集团(772.HK)、浪潮数字企业 (596.HK)、赤子城科技(9911.HK),美股建议软消费相关标的,包括 Spotify (SPOT.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)。 ➢ 农夫山泉(9633 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-2025-04-08
国元香港· 2025-04-08 09:51
2025 年 4 月 8 日星期二 【新股资讯】 ➢ 映恩生物─B(9606.HK)IPO 申购指南:建议谨慎申购 公司专注于生物制药领域的研发,特别是抗体偶联药物(ADC)的研发。公司拥有多个核心技术 平台,包括专有的 DITAC 平台、DIBAC 平台。公司的研发管线包括 12 款自主研发的 ADC 候选 药物。核心的 2 个管线情况如下:1. DB-1303 处于临床后期的 HER2 ADC 候选药物。正在进行 两项注册性临床试验(一项全球试验及一项中国试验)及一项全球潜在注册研究。适应症: HER2 表达 EC(预计最早将于 2025 年向 FDA 申请加速批准)。特点:采用稳定的、可裂解连 接子及专有的基于拓扑异构酶抑制剂的有效载荷设计,旨在降低脱靶毒性和增强抗肿瘤活性。2. DB-1311 是 B7-H3 ADC 候选药物。进展:正在进行全球多区域临床试验。适应症:治疗晚期 SCLC、食管磷状细胞癌。 如需浏览报告全文,请联系您的客户经理。 【近期研报】 ➢ 港股延续调整,关税等外部不确定性或影响港股-股指期货周报(3.31-4.04) 上周港股延续调整行情,恒指一周下跌 2.46%,受清明假期影 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-2025-04-07
国元香港· 2025-04-07 05:33
2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 【新股资讯】 ➢ 正力新能(3677.HK)IPO 申购指南:建议谨慎申购 公司于中国动力电池制造商中占有 1.8%的市场份额,排名第九。2021~2024 年,公司收入分别 为 14.99、32.9、41.6 和 51.3 亿元人民币,净利润分别为-4.02、-17.2、-5.9 和 0.91 亿元。公 司前期出现亏损主要是因为资本开始和 WM 客户事件。 【近期研报】 ➢ 4 月核心荐股-20250402 更新 【精选个股】 新调入个股 调出个股 ❖ 康龙化成(3759.HK) 如需浏览报告全文,请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 宏观数据即时点评:美国政府宣布加征关税,最终实施力度或有减弱 通常来说,特朗普政府的关税政策通常最终实施力度会较宣布时有所减弱,因此本次关税政策虽 然来势汹汹,但最终实施力度仍然取决于谈判情况,特别是"对等关税"税率存有一定的博弈空 间。在对华关税方面,据乘联会披露的 2024 年出口数据,2024 年我国对美国汽车出口销量 11.6 万台,仅占 2024 年我国汽车出口总量的 1.8%,新增关税措施影响相对较小。而纺织服装 以及电子产品等其他产业相对 ...
港股调整,海外扰动或影响本周港股表现
国元香港· 2025-04-01 14:07
上周港股股指期货价格延续回落趋势,至周末 25 年 4 月份恒指期货价格变 化-1.01%,科技指数期货涨幅-2.19%;当周恒指期货持仓变化 3.21%,基差 3.40 点;科技指数持仓量变化 7.73%;基差-16.47 点。美股股指期货方面, 上周三大股指期货价格下跌,至周末时道指期货价格变化-1.11%,标指和 纳指 100 期货价格变化分别为-1.67%和-2.52%。当周道指期货持仓变化- 1.44%,纳指期货持仓变化 4.15%;三大股指的期货中道指期货基差为 130.10 点较前周变化-214.55 点,纳指 100 期货基差 79.60 点,较前周变化 -137.18 点。 ➢ 市场外部环境: | 周报 | 港股调整,海外扰动或影响本周港股表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指期货 | 星期一 | 2025-04-01 | ➢ 市场回顾: 国内主要城市住房销售情况跟踪:上周二手房销售同比回升。 央行最新动向:美联储对降息的最新表态偏向谨慎,日本央行或继续加息。 部分国内外重要新闻:美国方面公布最新 PCE 和密歇根大学经济预测,特 朗普或在 4 月 2 日起加征关税 ...
国元证券晨会纪要-2025-03-28
国元香港· 2025-03-28 08:59
2025 年 3 月 28 日星期五 【近期研报】 ➢ 康臣药业(1681.HK)即时点评:深耕肾病领域,业绩持续快速增长 CKD 方面,公司通过尿毒清和益肾化湿颗粒两大核心产品实现销售收入 19.96 亿元,较 23 年的 17.41 亿元人民币,同比增长 14.6%,其中益肾化湿颗粒销售收入同比增长 27.2%。公司在双核 产品驱动下抓住市场机遇,成功覆盖 4.3 万家终端医疗机构和 29 万家药店。妇儿产品收入同比 增长 23.1%,终端医疗机构覆盖超 2 万家,药店覆盖超 16 万家。玉林制药实现收入 4.43 亿 元,同比增长 12.1%,未来将通过深度优化品牌化+专业化,推动业绩增长。影像方面,实现了 9%的增长,摆脱了之前因受未能参与国家带量采购影响,覆盖超过 3500 家终端医疗机构。 如需浏览报告全文,请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 宜明昂科-B(1541.HK)即时点评:CD47 研发全球领先,肿瘤及自免应用前景 广阔 1 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 核心产品 IMM01 是创新靶向 CD47 的分子。是全球唯二的两家在单药治疗临床试验中观察到完 全缓解并具有良好耐受性、安全性的公司之一。该 ...
布鲁可(00325):盈利能力有明显优化,多IP矩阵推动生态成长
国元香港· 2025-03-27 11:29
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating a strong growth potential driven by its product mix and market strategies [1][3][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 702.1% [1] - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys, which generated sales of RMB 2.201 billion [1][3] - The company has invested RMB 192 million in R&D, accounting for 8.6% of total revenue, highlighting its commitment to product innovation [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.6%, showcasing enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to product mix optimization and channel penetration strategies, effectively reaching consumers across various demographics and price ranges [3][4] - The company plans to introduce 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, further enhancing its product offerings [4] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its IP matrix, currently holding nearly 50 licensed IPs and planning to add over 25 more, including popular franchises like Star Wars and Pokémon [4][5] - Domestic market penetration is supported by over 450 distributors, while international expansion is achieved through brand partnerships and localization strategies, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4] Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on developing female-oriented products to address specific market needs, including ease of assembly and aesthetic appeal [5] - Forecasts indicate net profits of RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, reflecting strong market confidence in sustained profitability [6]
国元证券晨会纪要-2025-03-27
国元香港· 2025-03-27 03:48
2025 年 3 月 27 日星期四 【债券快讯】 【市场综述】 昨日港股各种重要指数全部上涨。截至 3 月 26 日,恒生指数上涨 0.6%,报收 23483.32 点。其 中大型股、中型股和小型股的涨跌幅分别为 0.66%、1.08%和 0.35%;与此同时,中资企业指数 和科技指数的涨跌幅度分别达到 0.07%和 1.01%。从行业来看,多数行业出现上涨:其中非必需 性消费和资讯科技业表现相对较好,涨跌幅分别为 1.5%和 1%;公用事业和必需性消费市场走势 较弱,涨跌幅分别为-0.53%和-1.09%。内地股市方面,截至 3 月 26 日,上证指数收盘价为 3368.7 点,下跌 0.04%;深证综指收盘价为 2046.12 点,上涨 0.39%。陆港股通方面,截至 3 月 26 日,当日陆股通交易暂停;当日沪市港股通南下资金净流入 47.5 亿元,深市港股通南下净 流入为 30.79 亿元,共计港股通资金净流入 78.29 亿元。 美国三大股指集体下跌:截至 3 月 26 日,道琼斯工业指数报收 42454.79 点,较前一个交易日 下跌 0.31%;标普 500 指数报收 5712.2 点,较前一 ...