Approach Paper Indonesia Country Program Evaluation January 15, 2025 1. Evaluation Purpose and Audience 1.1 This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group's support to Indonesia between FY 2013 and FY23. The evaluation will focus on the Bank Group's contribution to help Indonesia tackle key long-term development challenges and position the country toward its goal of reaching high- income status by 2045. The evaluation period spans three country strategies—the FY13– ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study. Core Insights - The presence of tax authority officers did not significantly impact overall tax compliance and morale among SMEs in Tanzania, although there were short-term increases in compliance in Dar es Salaam and sustained increases in tax morale elsewhere [5][16][66] - The study highlights the challenges of enforcing tax compliance among SMEs, particularly in a context where many businesses remain informal and tax contributions are minimal [10][12][26] - The findings suggest that increased visibility of tax officials may enhance perceived credibility of enforcement rather than trust in the tax system itself [17][18] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the challenges of taxing SMEs in Tanzania, emphasizing the limited fiscal gains and high enforcement costs associated with compliance [10][12] - It outlines a field experiment conducted to assess the impact of increased local presence of tax officials on SME tax compliance and morale [10][11] Context - Tanzania's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, with a significant portion of the workforce engaged in informal sectors, leading to low tax revenue [25][26] - The tax-to-GDP ratio in Tanzania is relatively low at 11.4%, indicating structural challenges in tax collection, particularly among small businesses [26][30] Study Design - The study involved a sample of 1,210 SMEs across various sectors, with a randomized controlled trial design to assess the impact of tax officials' presence during surveys [32][35] - The data collection included both survey responses and administrative tax records to evaluate compliance behavior [39][50] Results - The presence of tax officials led to an increase in tax morale, particularly outside Dar es Salaam, but did not significantly affect compliance rates overall [16][66] - In the Eastern zone, there was a notable increase in both the likelihood of payment and the amount paid immediately following the intervention, while the Southern zone showed a decrease in compliance in subsequent quarters [66][67] - The study indicates that while tax morale improved, the actual compliance behavior did not show consistent positive changes across all regions [62][66] Conclusion - The report concludes that while the intervention provided insights into taxpayer behavior and attitudes, the overall impact on compliance was mixed, suggesting the need for further research to understand the dynamics of tax morale and compliance in the SME sector [18][71]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study investigates the impact of corporate tax incentives, specifically focusing on the phasing out of a significant income tax exemption for export-oriented firms in Tunisia, revealing that the reform led to a 20% decline in the entry of new offshore firms without affecting employment, revenue, or wage bills of existing firms [4][15][19] - The findings challenge the conventional belief that tax incentives are crucial for attracting investments, suggesting that other factors may play a more significant role in economic activity [4][20][24] Summary by Sections Introduction - Tax incentives are widely used to attract investment, with 87% of surveyed developing economies having at least one type of corporate income tax exemption [9] - In 2021, tax relief schemes accounted for 1.4% of global GDP and 7.8% of global tax revenues [9] Institutional Context and Policy Background - Tunisia's offshore regime provided significant tax benefits, costing up to 6.8% of GDP in foregone tax revenues in 2013 [27][28] - The 2014 corporate tax reform aimed to harmonize tax treatment between offshore and onshore firms, raising the CIT rate for offshore firms from 0% to 10% [29][33] Data and Descriptive Statistics - The analysis uses administrative records from Tunisian registered firms, focusing on approximately 198,000 firms, with 22,660 classified as offshore [40][42] - Offshore firms represent about 20% of total firms but account for a disproportionate share of economic activity, particularly in manufacturing [52] Empirical Strategy - A differences-in-differences approach is employed to assess the impact of the CIT reform, comparing outcomes of offshore and onshore firms before and after the reform [58][59] Effects of the 2014 Offshore Tax Reform - The number of offshore firms grew at a slower rate post-reform, with a significant drop in new entrants, while the onshore sector continued to expand [66][68] - Despite the decline in the number of offshore firms, there was no significant decrease in aggregate economic activity, as existing firms maintained their performance [70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Social registries are essential tools for social protection, enabling the identification of individuals in poverty and vulnerability, facilitating resource targeting, and promoting access to services and benefits [13][15] - Over the past two decades, social registries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have significantly expanded in coverage, reaching over 80% in countries like Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica [15] - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of social registries, allowing countries with robust systems to respond effectively to citizens' needs [68][72] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The World Bank aims to strengthen social registries in LAC to reduce knowledge gaps and improve social policy design and implementation [20][21] II. The Role of Social Registries in Social Policy - Social registries support the identification of individuals experiencing poverty, enabling participation in social protection programs and efficient resource targeting [27][31] - They serve as information systems that consolidate data for public policy decision-making [31][35] III. Evolution of Social Registries in LAC - Social registries have evolved significantly, with Colombia achieving 100% population coverage through innovations in interoperability during the COVID-19 pandemic [51][63] - The coverage of social registries has increased over time, with some countries experiencing fluctuations due to challenges in maintaining updated information [51][63] IV. The Role of Social Registries during the COVID-19 Pandemic - During the pandemic, 64% of the population in LAC was covered by some form of protection, with countries implementing innovations in their social registries [72][68] - Innovations included the incorporation of new data sources and the use of technologies like machine learning for better household classification [72][73] V. Social Registries in LAC Today - The report assesses social registries based on five dimensions: institutional arrangements, data collection mechanisms, socioeconomic targeting, information systems, and performance measures [80][81] - Institutional frameworks vary across countries, with most registries linked to ministries of social policy or planning [86][88] - The collection and updating of household information often remain static, but there is a shift towards hybrid models that combine self-declaration and administrative data [96][100]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or countries discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) middle-income countries (MICs) to transition from investment-driven growth to strategies that incorporate infusion of global capital and innovation to achieve high-income status [20][32]. - It highlights that ten ECA countries have successfully transitioned to high-income status since 1990, primarily through structural reforms and integration into EU markets [20][23]. - The report identifies a growing concern that many ECA countries may be caught in a middle-income trap, characterized by slow growth and challenges in achieving high-income status [31]. Summary by Sections Overview - The report outlines the economic transitions of ECA countries, noting that while some have achieved high-income status, many others face stagnation due to insufficient structural reforms and external economic pressures [20][25]. Investment, Infusion, and Innovation - The report advocates for a dual transition strategy for MICs: from investment to investment and infusion, and then to investment, infusion, and innovation [32][37]. - It stresses the importance of adopting new technologies and ideas from abroad to enhance domestic productivity and innovation [32][37]. Understanding Growth - The analysis employs a Schumpeterian lens, emphasizing the balance between creation, destruction, and preservation in economic growth [38][41]. - It notes that the forces of creation are currently weak in the ECA region, with many firms lacking innovation and productivity growth primarily driven by resource reallocation [41][43]. Drivers of Economic Growth - The report identifies three fundamental drivers of growth: enterprises, talent and social mobility, and energy efficiency [43]. - It highlights the inefficiencies in resource use among MICs, which significantly hampers their economic potential compared to high-income counterparts [43][44]. Talent and Social Mobility - The report discusses the declining quality of education and its impact on social mobility, emphasizing the need for reforms in vocational education and higher education systems [57][60]. - It points out that the quality of higher education is inadequate, which poses risks to long-term growth prospects in the region [60][64]. Energy - The report underscores the importance of addressing energy inefficiencies and transitioning to lower emissions to support economic growth [67][71]. - It notes that the dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the energy sector hinders competition and innovation, necessitating policy reforms to facilitate market entry for new players [71][75].

IMPLEMENTATION KNOW-HOW BRIEF Regulatory Sandboxes for Digital Health igital technology, applications, data, and information systems, as part of the ongoing transformation of health and health care can help ensure universal and equitable access to affordable, people-centered, and integrated quality care, contributing to the goal of reaching Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Intelligent use of data and digital technologies can elevate patient experience, improve clinician and staff satisfaction, drive operati ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Economic, Trade, and Industry Implications of the Circular Economy Transition in Türkiye January 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions exp ...

Applying the Degree of Urbanisation A METHODOLOGICAL MANUAL TO DEFINE CITIES, TOWNS AND RURAL AREAS FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 2021 edition Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MANUALS A N D G U I D E L I N E S Public Disclosure Authorized Applying the Degree of Urbanisation A METHODOLOGICAL MANUAL TO DEFINE CITIES, TOWNS AND RURAL AREAS FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 2021 edition 2021 edition Manuscript completed in December 2020 The designations employed ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The productivity of schooling is maximized when there is a match between a child's skill level and the complexity of the learning experiences offered at school, with mismatches in either direction being detrimental to learning outcomes [10][75] - The relationship between early childhood skill and the productivity of schooling follows an inverted-U shape, indicating that increasing early childhood skill enhances productivity up to a certain point, after which further increases can reduce productivity due to widening mismatches [10][76] Summary by Sections Introduction - The study emphasizes the importance of matching learning experiences to a child's understanding level to enhance learning outcomes, supported by various learning theories [2] Empirical Evidence - The research utilizes longitudinal data from the Young Lives Study, focusing on children from Peru, India, and Vietnam, to analyze the effects of schooling on child skill [8][12] - The findings indicate that the productivity of schooling is influenced by the difference between a child's existing skill and the complexity of the school curriculum [10][19] Methodology - A value-added specification is employed to account for individual-specific effects and to analyze the relationship between child skill and school complexity [9][41] - The study uses a non-linear dynamic panel model to estimate the effects of schooling, allowing for heterogeneity in productivity based on mismatches [9][50] Results - The main results reveal that a 1% increase in schooling can lead to a 0.55% increase in skill, with the productivity of schooling being highest when there is a match between child skill and school complexity [51][55] - The analysis shows that the effect of early childhood skill on schooling productivity is non-monotonic, with positive effects dominating in lower skill quartiles and negative effects in higher quartiles [56][60] Cross-Country Evidence - The study extends its findings to India and Vietnam, confirming similar patterns of heterogeneous effects of schooling based on the mismatch between child skill and school complexity [61][69] Conclusion - The research underscores the necessity of tailoring educational experiences to align with children's skill levels to optimize learning outcomes, providing external validity to existing educational interventions [75][76]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate and comprehensive measurement of household livelihoods for monitoring poverty alleviation and targeting social assistance programs. Traditional data collection methods are costly and often inadequate for local-level measurement, necessitating alternative approaches [5][10][12]. - The study evaluates satellite-based deep learning methods to enhance poverty measurement in data-scarce environments, demonstrating that transformer architectures can effectively measure local-level variations in household asset wealth and track changes over time [5][11][33]. - The research highlights the potential of combining satellite imagery, publicly available geo-features, and advanced deep learning techniques for hyperlocal and dynamic poverty measurement [5][11][35]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Accurate measurements of economic well-being are essential for achieving international poverty alleviation goals, including the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 1 [9]. - Traditional household surveys are often infrequent and spatially imprecise, creating a need for scalable alternatives [10]. Methodology - The study utilizes a large-scale dataset comprising over 12 million households across four African countries, leveraging both census data and multi-spectral satellite imagery [12][41]. - The research tests various deep learning models, including vision transformers and convolutional neural networks, to predict asset wealth index (AWI) [13][51]. Results - The transformer model outperforms other models in predicting country-level wealth, achieving R² values of 0.83, 0.70, and 0.62 for Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, respectively [18]. - For wealth change prediction, the transformer model captures 52% of the variation in Malawi and 42% in Mozambique, outperforming traditional models [22][24]. - City-level wealth mapping demonstrates high accuracy, with R² values of 0.76 for Lilongwe and 0.67 for Blantyre, showcasing the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery [32][34]. Discussion - The findings indicate that transformer models can effectively integrate geospatial features to enhance wealth predictions, particularly in data-scarce settings [35][37]. - The report underscores the necessity of having a critical mass of training data to ensure robust predictive performance, with accuracy deteriorating when training data falls below 10% of the population [36][38].