Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Nitrogen fertilizer is crucial for enhancing agricultural yields, but its subsidized use often leads to inefficiencies, resulting in negative economic and environmental impacts [3][10] - Over 50% of global agricultural production occurs in regions with high nitrogen subsidies, where additional fertilizer application yields negative marginal benefits [3][10] - Up to 17% of nitrogen pollution in water is attributed to inefficient fertilizer subsidies, contributing to environmental issues like hypoxic zones and harmful algal blooms [3][10] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the transformative impact of nitrogen on global agriculture, significantly increasing yields and supporting billions of lives since the 20th century [8][9] Subsidy Dynamics - Fertilizer subsidies are substantial in many countries, with India spending approximately $10 billion to $11 billion annually, primarily on nitrogen [10] - The rationale for these subsidies includes stimulating agricultural production and stabilizing food prices, but they often lead to market distortions and inefficiencies [11][12] Agricultural Productivity - The report presents evidence that nitrogen fertilizer has heterogeneous effects on yields, with diminishing returns observed at higher application levels [39][40] - Regions like East Asia and South Asia are at the high end of nitrogen usage, experiencing diminishing returns, while Sub-Saharan Africa shows low usage and potential food security risks [41][43] Water Quality - Increased nitrogen fertilizer use correlates with significant water quality deterioration, leading to harmful algal blooms and other environmental issues [50][51] - A 10% increase in nitrogen fertilizer use results in a 1.6% to 3.4% increase in nitrogen concentration in water, indicating a strong link between agricultural practices and water pollution [51][52] Impact of Subsidies on Pollution - Coupled producer support significantly impacts nitrogen pollution levels, with estimates suggesting that input support accounts for approximately 17% of nitrogen pollution over the past 30 years [57]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Rising sea levels and changes in freshwater flux are increasing riverine salinity in coastal Bangladesh, significantly impacting fish availability and health outcomes for local populations [3][70][76] - The study highlights the complex interplay between species-specific salinity tolerance and fishers' adaptive strategies, which can lead to varying catch responses to salinity changes [71][75] - The findings indicate that while poverty has decreased in Bangladesh, the health impacts of reduced fish availability during peak salinity months remain a significant concern, particularly for child health [64][75] Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate change is causing unprecedented impacts globally, with rising sea levels being a key consequence, having increased by approximately 0.15 to 0.25 meters since 1900 [11] - Coastal regions are experiencing salinization, which affects local ecosystems and livelihoods, particularly in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh [12][13] Data - Salinity data were collected from five monitoring stations in the southwest coastal region, showing significant fluctuations in salinity levels throughout the year [20][23] - A total of 29 fish species were surveyed, with varying salinity tolerances and market prices, to assess the impact of salinity changes on fish catch and prices [25][28] Measuring Salinity Response - The study employs econometric models to measure the response of fish catch quantities to changes in salinity, revealing both negative and positive responses among different species [39][52] - The analysis shows that increasing salinity can lead to a decline in total fish catch, with low-price species being particularly affected [56] Econometric Measurement of Fish Price Response - The report finds that while fish catch declines significantly with increasing salinity, the price response is modest, particularly for high-price fish, suggesting a tendency for wholesalers to stabilize prices despite reduced supply [60][72] Potential Health Impacts - The decline in fish availability during peak salinity months poses serious health risks, particularly for children, as fish protein is crucial for nutrition [64][69] - Data from demographic surveys indicate higher morbidity and mortality rates for children born during peak salinity months, highlighting the ongoing health challenges despite poverty reduction efforts [66][69] Summary and Conclusions - The research underscores the significant consequences of salinity changes on fish protein availability and child health in coastal Bangladesh, suggesting that traditional salinity tolerance parameters may not accurately predict actual fish catch responses [75][76]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Tanzania is experiencing significant impacts from climate change, affecting health, economy, and livelihoods, with climate-related hazards such as extreme rainfall, floods, and rising temperatures exacerbating food security and health risks [23][24] - The Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment (CHVA) aims to assist decision-makers in planning effective adaptation measures to address climate-related health risks, focusing on both the health sector and related sectors like disaster risk management [24][43] - The assessment highlights the need for improved coordination among ministries to enhance resilience and health outcomes in the face of climate change [32] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Tanzania faces increasing health challenges due to climate change, with rising temperatures and extreme weather events impacting food security and health systems [23][24] - The CHVA provides recommendations for adaptation measures at both national and subnational levels [24] Climate Change: Observed Trends and Projections - Mean annual temperatures in Tanzania have increased by 0.56°C over the past 50 years, projected to rise by 0.68°C by the 2030s and 1.40°C by the 2050s [25] - Precipitation has decreased by nearly 50 mm since the 1960s, with future projections indicating slight increases through the 2050s [25] - Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, with projected damages amounting to approximately USD200 million annually by 2050 [25] Climate-Related Health Risks - Nutrition risks: Severe food insecurity affected 56.4% of the population in 2019, with rural areas being more vulnerable [26] - Vector-borne diseases: Tanzania has a malaria prevalence rate of 13.4%, with 93% of the population at risk [27] - Waterborne diseases: Responsible for 23,900 deaths annually among children under five, with increased flooding likely to exacerbate outbreaks [28] Health System Adaptive Capacity - The health system's resilience is influenced by government recognition of climate change impacts and the development of strategies for adaptation [32] - Limitations exist in the health workforce and the integration of climate change awareness among health workers [32] - Public-private partnerships have improved health service access, but rural areas still face significant healthcare delivery challenges [32] Recommendations - Establish climate-smart health systems by integrating climate change considerations into health policies and strategies [33] - Increase financing for climate-related health risks and improve cross-sectoral collaboration for better health outcomes [34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Carbon Monitor Cities 2.0 project aims to provide near-real-time monitoring of urban greenhouse gas emissions without local data collection, enhancing understanding of urban carbon emissions and informing climate change mitigation policies [7][8][56] - The pilot was conducted in 11 cities across Egypt, South Africa, and Türkiye, demonstrating the feasibility of scaling this approach in low- and middle-income countries [8][14] - The system utilizes satellite data and advanced methodologies to estimate emissions from key sectors including energy, transportation, and industry, specifically focusing on the cement industry [16][45] Summary by Sections Introduction - The Carbon Monitor Cities 2.0 initiative is designed to track urban emissions in near real-time, supported by the City Climate Finance Gap Fund [7] Pilot Objectives - The pilot aimed to generate real-time data on greenhouse gas emissions to inform local climate policies and potentially serve as a monitoring system for carbon finance [8][14] Methodology - The monitoring platform quantifies CO2 emissions across three sectors: energy, transportation, and industry, with a temporal resolution of ten days [16] - The methodology follows the BASIC+ approach of the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories [17] Emission Sources - The energy sector includes emissions from electricity generation and direct fossil fuel combustion in residential and industrial settings [18][31] - Transportation emissions are derived from road transport and aviation, utilizing traffic data and flight information [41][43] - The industry sector focuses on emissions from the cement industry, monitored through satellite imagery [45] Data Visualization - An interactive online interface allows users to visualize emissions data at city, district, and pixel levels, facilitating comparison over time [53][54] Conclusions and Future Directions - The pilots confirmed the potential for real-time emissions estimation without local data collection, with future plans to scale the system and include additional data sets [56][58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Tajik banking sector Core Insights - Despite significant reforms in recent years, Tajikistan's financial intermediation remains behind structural peers and the Caucasus and Central Asia region, with bank interest margins significantly higher than those of peers, ranking among the highest globally [4][10] - The study identifies specific bank factors such as income diversification, loan size, risk aversion, market power, credit risk, and the macroeconomic and institutional environment as key determinants of interest margins [4][28] - The findings suggest substantial room for enhancing the banking operating environment, promoting economies of scale, and increasing competitive space [4] Summary by Sections Introduction - The private credit to GDP ratio in Tajikistan was only 12.4% as of the end of 2023, indicating low financial intermediation and posing a barrier to sustainable and inclusive growth [9] - High interest margins are linked to credit rationing, resulting in lower credit levels for borrowers [10][11] Methodology and Data - The analysis utilized a unique panel dataset from the National Bank of Tajikistan covering 19 commercial banks from Q1 2011 to Q4 2022, incorporating both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables [42][27] Results - The results strongly support the importance of bank-specific factors in explaining the differences in Tajikistan's net interest margins, with operational efficiency and perceived credit risk being critical determinants [28] - Higher operational costs lead to wider interest margins, with a 1% decrease in operational costs associated with a nearly 500 basis point reduction in interest margins [59] - The study also highlights the role of market power, risk aversion, and ownership structure in influencing interest margins, with state-owned banks associated with higher margins compared to foreign-owned banks [28][29] Policy Implications - To reduce interest spreads and achieve financial deepening, the report suggests promoting bank consolidation for economies of scale, enhancing competition through regulatory frameworks, and improving the operational environment [29]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the importance of biodiversity conservation and the global "30x30" initiative, which aims to protect 30% of the Earth's land and sea by 2030 [10][12] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for global biodiversity conservation, particularly through the "30x30" initiative, which has been adopted by 188 governments [10] - It highlights the use of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data to identify new species protection opportunities in 10 countries across Latin America, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region [11][12] - The study focuses on the importance of local conservation management and the role of endemic species in achieving biodiversity protection goals [12][13] Methodology and Findings - The report introduces a spatially efficient algorithm to identify priority areas for new protected areas, ensuring equal weight for all species, including vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants [13][16] - It demonstrates that spatial clustering of unprotected species allows for significant conservation gains with relatively small expansions of protected areas [16][19] - The study provides detailed case studies for countries like Brazil, Cameroon, South Africa, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Madagascar, India, and China, showing varying levels of species protection and the spatial impact of expanding protected areas [20][21][35][51][74][85][97] Country-Specific Insights - In Brazil, 30.6% of the land is already protected, covering 93% of endemic species, but 1,412 species remain unprotected [21][22] - Cameroon has only 12% of its land protected, leaving 29.3% of endemic species unprotected [35][36] - South Africa and Costa Rica show impressive protection rates, with 91% and 97.9% of endemic species protected, respectively [51][52] - Ecuador and Papua New Guinea require varying levels of land expansion to achieve full species protection, with Ecuador needing up to 48% of its territory and Papua New Guinea needing 24% [74][75][82] - The Philippines and Madagascar show that marine species protection can be achieved with modest expansions of marine protected areas [85][86][93] - India and China, despite limited public data on protected areas, demonstrate the potential for significant species protection with relatively small land expansions [97][98][109][116]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the healthcare workforce crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically in the primary healthcare (PHC) sector, using data from 10 countries and 7,915 health facilities [4][8] - The median PHC provider sees 10.9 patients per day, spending less than two hours on patient care, indicating significant underutilization of capacity [4][12] - There is a weak correlation between provider caseload and medical competence, with highly competent providers often underutilized [4][14] Key Findings - The top 20% of busiest providers handle 40% to 67% of all outpatient visits, leading to long wait times for patients despite overall underutilization [13][38] - Reallocating underutilized high-competence providers to busier facilities could improve the quality of care by 4.5 percentage points (12%) in half of the sample countries [4][17] - In the other half of the countries, quality improvement would require a complete overhaul of training infrastructure and facility distribution [4][17] Data and Methodology - The study uses data from the World Bank's Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) surveys, covering 10 Sub-Saharan African countries with a total population of 515 million [21] - Two main outcome measures were constructed: "outpatients per provider per working day" and "vignette diagnostic competence," which assesses providers' ability to correctly diagnose and treat common conditions [21][25] - A simulation was conducted to estimate the potential quality improvement from reallocating the most competent providers to the busiest facilities [27] Implications for Healthcare Systems - The findings challenge the notion of a general healthcare workforce shortage, revealing instead a complex issue of unequal caseload distribution and misallocation of competent providers [49][55] - In half of the countries studied, significant productivity losses are observed due to the misallocation of high-competence providers, with potential quality improvements achievable through better allocation [49][62] - In the other half, the lack of highly competent providers limits the potential gains from reallocation, indicating a need for systemic reforms in medical education and training [50][63] Policy Recommendations - The study suggests that reallocating providers to match caseloads with competence could be a cost-effective way to improve healthcare quality in some countries [49][56] - In countries with a severe shortage of competent providers, systemic reforms in training infrastructure are necessary to address the underlying issues [50][63] - The findings highlight the importance of addressing both the unequal distribution of caseloads and the misallocation of competent providers to improve healthcare outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa [55][62]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating, but it highlights significant gender-based disparities in financial access and capital allocation, suggesting potential investment opportunities in addressing these gaps [5][6] Core Findings - Female-managed firms are equally likely to apply for credit as male-managed firms but receive lower credit amounts, indicating intensive margin credit constraints [5][6] - Female-managed firms demonstrate a 15% higher average return on capital compared to male-managed firms, suggesting potential capital misallocation [6] - Gender disparities in credit access are more pronounced in countries with restrictive social and cultural norms [17][18] Data and Methodology - The study uses firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) for 61 countries, focusing on formal firms with 5+ employees in the manufacturing sector [21] - Gender disparities are analyzed using both extensive (credit application, rejection rates) and intensive (loan amounts) margins [41] - Countries are classified as more or less traditional based on social perceptions about women's roles, using data from the World Values Survey (WVS) [24] Gender Gaps in Financial Access - Female-managed firms are less likely to have their credit applications rejected and more likely to have open credit lines compared to male-managed firms [51] - However, female-managed firms receive 39% lower loan amounts on average, with the disparity being more severe (52% lower) in traditional countries [53] - These disparities are not explained by differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity between female and male-managed firms [56] Capital Misallocation - Female-managed firms show a 15% higher average return on capital, indicating potential capital misallocation, particularly in traditional countries [68] - The higher return on capital for female-managed firms suggests they could benefit from increased access to credit to align with male-managed firms' performance [68] - Capital misallocation is more pronounced in firms that apply for and receive credit, especially in traditional countries [71] Policy Implications - The findings suggest the need for gender-inclusive financial products and services to address the specific constraints faced by female entrepreneurs [91] - Enhancing access to markets and technology for female-led firms could improve their sales per worker and overall performance [92] - Legal and regulatory reforms, along with gender intelligence training for financial intermediaries, could help reduce capital misallocation and improve credit access for women-led businesses [94]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the growing importance of cross-border power grid interconnections and regional electricity markets as key enablers for the sustainable energy transition [17][18][19] Core Report Insights - The report highlights the multifaceted drivers of cross-border power trade, including economic value, enhanced power supply security, and climate change mitigation [19] - It underscores the importance of both physical (hard) and regulatory/operational (soft) infrastructure for successful regional power system integration [20][23] - The report identifies political commitment and financing as the two fundamental challenges to achieving deeper regional power grid integration [28][169] Summary by Section Executive Summary - The report aims to provide a foundational guide for integrating power grids and markets across borders, particularly in developing and emerging economies [17] - It emphasizes the economic, security, and environmental benefits of cross-border power trade, including cost savings, improved reliability, and reduced carbon emissions [19][20] - The report outlines five core building blocks for successful integration: interconnection infrastructure, planning and investment coordination, technical and operational coordination, commercial arrangements and market design, and institutional architecture [22][23] Power Trade Across Borders - Infrastructure connectivity, particularly power grid interconnections, is recognized as pivotal for sustainable development and shared prosperity [33] - Cross-border power trade enables countries with electricity surpluses to export power, while energy-deficient countries can improve access to reliable and affordable electricity [35] - The report highlights the potential for grid interconnection on a larger scale, connecting regions with different time zones and weather patterns to better utilize variable renewable energy (VRE) [36] Evolution of the Power Grid and Market Integration - Power system integration has evolved from bilateral grid interconnections to regional power pools and market-based trading [43] - Integration levels range from early-stage (limited coordination) to shallow integration (some coordination) and deep integration (well-developed institutions and competitive markets) [44][46] - The report provides examples of regional power pools at different integration levels, such as the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the European Union's internal energy market [45][46] Drivers of Cross-Border Power Integration - The primary drivers of regional power system integration include economic efficiencies, power supply security, and climate change mitigation [67] - Economic benefits are derived from lower operating costs, economies of scale, and revenue opportunities from electricity exports [72] - Cross-border power trade enhances supply security by aggregating diverse energy resources and balancing supply and demand across regions [74] - Grid interconnections play a critical role in integrating larger shares of renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions [81][82] Building Blocks of Regional Grid Interconnections and Electricity Markets - Successful regional integration requires both physical infrastructure (transmission lines, substations) and enabling soft infrastructure (regulatory, operational, and market frameworks) [87][90] - Planning and investment coordination are essential to optimize generation and transmission investments across participating countries [108][109] - Technical and operational coordination, including grid codes and interconnector capacity allocation, are critical for efficient and reliable power system integration [125][130] - Commercial arrangements and market design, such as transitioning from bilateral trading to regional markets, are key to enhancing cost efficiency and competitiveness [137][140] Challenges of the Power Grid and Market Integration - Political commitment and cooperation are fundamental to overcoming challenges in cross-border grid integration, particularly in regions with complex political dynamics [170][171] - Financing cross-border interconnection projects is more challenging than financing renewable projects due to long lead times, revenue uncertainty, and regulatory complexities [176][177] - Developing countries face additional challenges, including limited domestic transmission infrastructure and difficulties in accessing affordable financing [179] Looking Ahead - Addressing the challenges of power grid integration requires greater partnerships, cooperation, and coordination among governments and the private sector [183] - The report emphasizes the need for global and regional initiatives to foster political commitment, build trust, and prioritize transnational benefits [184] - Scaling up financing for cross-border infrastructure, including concessional financing and innovative mechanisms like green bonds, is critical for advancing regional power grid integration [189][190]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or region [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Vietnam aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring gross capital investments to account for 32-35% of GDP, with government investment at 7.3% of GDP annually to support infrastructure development [14] - Public investment in Vietnam has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with chronic under-execution of investment budgets and significant delays in project implementation [16] - The central government's share of total government investment has decreased from 40% to 20% over the past seven years, leading to over-investment by provinces in low-value projects and stranded assets [16] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality lags behind regional peers, with road transport costs being the highest in the region, which could impact its attractiveness as an FDI destination [20][22] Public Investment Trends - Vietnam's infrastructure quality ranks 77th globally, behind countries like China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with expressway density being one of the lowest in the region [20][22] - To sustain economic growth, Vietnam needs to invest 7-7.3% of GDP in infrastructure annually, aligning with global experience where fast-growing countries invest at least 7% of GDP in public investment [25] - Public investment as a share of GDP has declined from 8% in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with public capital stock per capita and per worker below upper middle-income and high-income countries [28] Inefficiencies in PIM and IGF Systems - The PIM system in Vietnam suffers from allocative inefficiencies, with provinces over-investing in low-value projects like industrial parks and provincial ports, leading to environmental degradation and economic waste [38][39] - Vietnam has 47 seaports, but 95% of cargo goes through three central government-operated ports, indicating uneconomic investments by provinces [40] - Overinvestment in small airports has resulted in low passenger volumes, with only 6 out of 22 airports experiencing growth, while most are loss-making [46] Systemic Problems in Subnational PIM and IGF Systems - Vietnam's fiscal decentralization has led to a fragmented intergovernmental system, with subnational governments accounting for 60% of total government expenditures, significantly higher than the international average [65] - The State Budget Law and Public Investment Law lack mechanisms for vertical and horizontal coordination, leading to underinvestment in national and regional infrastructure [40][41] - The lack of effective incentive and enforcement mechanisms at the regional level has resulted in a race-to-the-bottom competition among provinces, leading to inefficient public investments [44][45] Recommendations and Next Steps - The report recommends rebalancing infrastructure investment from provincial to central levels, addressing legal loopholes, and establishing robust monitoring mechanisms for capital budget resources [17] - It suggests institutionalizing tools for vertical and horizontal coordination, such as co-financing arrangements and regional Public Investment Programs, to enhance regional investment efficiency [96] - The report also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive review of expenditure responsibilities and the alignment of MTIPs with national and regional spatial development masterplans [93]