Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Income security for older adults is a significant concern globally, with various sources contributing to their financial stability, including continued work, family support, accumulated assets, and government benefits [5][12] - In emerging economies, the rapid aging of the population raises concerns about the preparedness of older adults to achieve income security, necessitating a stronger role for the state in promoting financial security [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for innovative solutions to expand pension coverage and improve income security for older adults, particularly in developing countries [51][65] Summary by Sections Understanding Income Security for Older Adults - The report discusses the importance of various income sources for older adults, highlighting that family support, continued work, and government benefits are crucial for financial security [5][12] - It notes that the adequacy of these income sources varies significantly across different regions and levels of development [5][12] Income Sources for Older Adults across Regions - The report identifies four main income sources for older adults: family support, continued work, income from accumulated assets, and government benefits [12][19] - It highlights that living arrangements and access to services significantly impact income security [12] Role of Contributory and Non-Contributory Pensions in Old Age Financial Protection - The report outlines the differences in pension systems between high-income and developing countries, noting that many older adults in developing countries lack adequate pension coverage [19][30] - It discusses the challenges of contributory pension systems, particularly in informal labor markets, and the rise of social pensions as a response [30][34] Contributory Coverage Expansion Challenges, Promise of Voluntary Schemes, and Growth of Non-Contributory Pension Benefits - The report highlights the low coverage of pension systems in low- and middle-income countries, emphasizing the need for innovative informal sector schemes [43][48] - It discusses the importance of expanding savings and encouraging older workers to remain in the labor force to improve income security [51][52] What the World Bank is Doing on Income Security for Older Adults - The World Bank supports income security for older adults through various lending and non-lending instruments, focusing on pension reforms and social assistance [55][57] - The report details the World Bank's efforts to improve pension administration and promote financial inclusion [57][61] Learning from World Bank Engagements on Income Security in Old Age and Looking Ahead - The report outlines key lessons for future work, including the need for rethinking pension design, promoting data transparency, and harnessing digital transactions for pension administration [65][66] - It emphasizes the importance of a holistic view on income security that includes financial literacy and the interaction between public and private transfers [71][72]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to subdued domestic demand and a contracting property sector, which saw real estate investment decline by 11.5% year-on-year from July to November [25][62] - Incremental policy stimulus has been introduced to support growth, including a RMB 300 billion consumer trade-in scheme and a RMB 10 trillion program to swap local government off-budget debt for lower-cost on-budget financing [26][111] - The property sector remains a significant drag on economic activity, with new home sales in the primary market declining by 51.5% in value compared to peak levels in July 2021 [92] - Despite challenges, manufacturing investment grew by 9.6% year-on-year, supported by robust external demand and policy incentives [63] Summary by Sections I. Recent Economic Developments - Growth momentum has slowed under domestic demand constraints, with GDP growth decelerating from 5.3% in Q1 to 4.6% in Q3 2024 [62] - The property sector's adjustment continues to impact investment negatively, while net exports have provided some support to growth [62] - Retail sales growth has weakened, reflecting low consumer confidence, with retail sales growing only 2.8% year-on-year in July-November [63] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments have remained robust, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [63] II. Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - GDP growth is projected at 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with policy support expected to provide a modest boost to housing demand [28][133] - Weak domestic demand is anticipated to keep consumer price inflation low at 0.4% in 2024, rising to 1.1% in 2025 [29][133] - The outlook is subject to risks, including a potential persistent downturn in the property sector and global trade uncertainties [30] III. Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - The secure middle class in China has expanded significantly, from 9.8% to 32.1% of the population between 2010 and 2021 [34] - Despite progress, 17% of the population remains low-income, and 38.2% are in the vulnerable middle class, indicating ongoing economic vulnerabilities [35] - Education plays a crucial role in upward mobility, with higher education correlating with better economic outcomes [178]

JANUARY 2 0 2 5 VIETNAM MACRO MONITORING Photo credit: Shutterstock WHAT'S NEW? Public Disclosure Authorized • The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased in December as businesses ramped up production to meet year-end consumer demand. However, manufacturing sales prospects face some uncertainty as the PMI entered contractionary territory, falling from 50.8 in November to 49.8 in December as new orders growth slowed. • Exports picked up in December in response to the western holiday season and some f ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual economic growth in Thailand, supported by strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption, suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [1][2]. Core Insights - Economic activity in November showed gradual expansion, driven by solid goods exports and improving tourism, with private consumption also seeing a slight uptick due to fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production contracted by 3.6 percent, primarily due to a significant decline in the automotive sector, which faced challenges from tighter credit and price competition in electric vehicles [2][3]. - Goods exports grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, although this was a decrease from the previous month's 14.2 percent growth, with strong performance in electronics and agricultural exports [3]. - Tourism remained a crucial growth driver, with a 4.3 percent increase in tourist arrivals in December, reaching 86 percent of pre-pandemic levels [4][14]. - Inflation rose slightly to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining below the central bank's target, driven by core inflation and energy prices [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 2.25 percent, anticipating continued economic expansion despite external challenges [16][27]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - November economic data indicates gradual growth, with strong external demand and a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal measures [1][2]. - Manufacturing production saw a notable contraction of 3.6 percent, the deepest decline in eight months, largely due to the automotive sector [2]. Exports and Tourism - Goods exports expanded by 9.6 percent year-on-year in November, with notable growth in electronics and agricultural exports, while automotive exports declined [3]. - Tourist arrivals increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year in December, contributing significantly to economic growth [4][14]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Headline inflation rose to 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, remaining the lowest among ASEAN countries [15][20]. - The Bank of Thailand held the policy rate steady at 2.25 percent, projecting continued economic growth despite external pressures [16][27]. Government Initiatives - The Thai government introduced a debt relief initiative aimed at alleviating household debt pressures, targeting vulnerable groups with various support measures [17]. - Plans for future economic relief and structural reforms were outlined, focusing on community empowerment and sustainable development [26].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report outlines a harmonized method for defining urban and rural areas, facilitating international statistical comparisons [12][19][29] - It emphasizes the importance of reliable and comparable data for effective policy-making and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [43][44][67] - The methodology developed by six international organizations aims to classify territories on a continuum from urban to rural, enhancing the understanding of socio-economic conditions [14][19][30] Summary by Sections Introduction - The manual responds to a UN request for a technical report on defining urban and rural areas for international comparisons [12][34] - It highlights the need for a standardized methodology to improve the comparability of urban and rural statistics globally [28][29] Legal and Strategic Framework - Understanding socio-economic conditions in urban and rural areas is crucial for effective policy development [42] - The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development emphasizes the role of cities and rural areas in achieving global goals [43][44] Rationale and Benefits of the Method - Different countries use varying criteria for defining urban and rural areas, necessitating a globally applicable definition for meaningful international comparisons [65][66] - The proposed method aims to create a universal mapping of urban and rural areas, providing reliable data for policy formulation and monitoring progress towards SDGs [67]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of off-grid electricity provision into national electrification strategies is increasingly common in low-income countries, with a focus on decentralized markets for electricity, particularly through pay-as-you-go (PAYGo) solar home systems [6][11][19] - A significant subsidy implemented by the Togolese government in 2019 reduced usage costs for solar home systems by 17.8% to 41.7%, leading to a dramatic increase in adoption rates, especially for smaller systems [15][16][49] - The study highlights the importance of usage prices in the electrification decisions of low-income households, indicating that high intensive margin prices limit the adoption of solar home systems [6][16][22] Summary by Sections Introduction - Extending the electrical grid to rural areas is often fiscally unsustainable in low-income countries, prompting a shift towards decentralized electricity provision, particularly solar energy [11][12] Background and Context - In 2017, only 35% of Togo's population had access to electricity, with a stark contrast between urban (74%) and rural (5%) households [25] - The CIZO initiative aimed to increase rural electrification rates to 40% by 2022, targeting the electrification of 300,000 households [26][62] Empirical Strategy - The report utilizes administrative data from a major solar company in Togo to measure the impact of the subsidy on the adoption of solar home systems, employing event studies and two-way fixed effects specifications [39][49] Results - The subsidy led to an increase in overall adoption by approximately 122%, with small systems seeing a 240% increase and large systems a 66% increase in adoption rates [49][50] - The findings suggest that low adoption rates of solar home systems are primarily due to low benefits at market prices rather than credit constraints [16][22] Theoretical Framework - A theoretical model is developed to understand the conditions under which the effects of subsidies in Togo may generalize to other contexts, emphasizing the unique cost structures of decentralized solar electricity [17][73] Conclusion - The report concludes that while the subsidy significantly increased the adoption of solar home systems in Togo, the effects may not be replicable in other decentralized energy markets due to varying demand fundamentals and cost structures [91][92][93]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in water security as a strategic business interest for companies, highlighting the potential for significant returns through mitigating water risks [2][4]. Core Insights - Water poses substantial risks to global corporations, including operational, supply chain, market, reputational, and regulatory risks, making investment in water security essential for sustainable business practices [2]. - The 2030 Water Resources Group (WRG) facilitates collaboration between businesses and governments to address water security challenges, aiming to create a more water-secure world [5][10]. - Over 300 companies are engaged with WRG, indicating a strong interest in public-private partnerships to tackle water-related issues [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Companies are exposed to water risks valued at $225 billion, with 69% of listed equities affected, suggesting a significant potential for business transformation through water investments [4]. - WRG provides a platform for corporates to engage with government leaders to address policy bottlenecks and leverage private sector innovation [6]. Achievements and Impact - WRG has mobilized $1.6 billion and saved 1 billion cubic meters of water through various initiatives, demonstrating the effectiveness of collaborative efforts [11]. - Specific projects include supporting sustainable rice production in India, aiming to reach 1 million small farmers and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions [11]. - In Gauteng, South Africa, WRG has established a partnership to reduce water demand by 10% and improve water security in a region critical to the national economy [12].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in human capital to create jobs and foster entrepreneurship, particularly in developing countries [7][8][12]. Core Insights - Human capital, defined as knowledge, skills, and good health, is crucial for job creation and economic prosperity, with two-thirds of the income gap between developed and developing countries attributed to disparities in human capital [12]. - The report highlights that investments in human capital can connect people to jobs and stimulate entrepreneurship, which in turn drives economic growth [12][13]. - The global workforce is increasingly concentrated in developing countries, with a projected increase of one billion people in the working-age population by 2050, necessitating significant job creation efforts [14][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Human capital is essential for job creation and economic growth, with disparities in human capital contributing significantly to income gaps between countries [12]. - Investments in education and health are foundational for developing productive workers and entrepreneurs [12][13]. The Jobs Challenge: One Billion Good Jobs - The working-age population in developing countries is expected to grow by one billion by 2050, requiring substantial job creation, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, which needs 1.5 million new jobs per month [14][16]. - The Human Capital Index in developing countries averages 0.49, indicating that individuals are less than half as productive as they could be with full health and education [14]. Connecting People to Good Jobs - Reducing barriers to employment and enhancing access to training and job placement programs can significantly improve job opportunities, especially for women and youth [19][20]. - Programs like "Jóvenes" in Latin America have successfully combined skills training and job search assistance, leading to improved employment outcomes for young people [20][21]. Equipping Entrepreneurs to Create Good Jobs and Innovate - Human capital is a key driver of entrepreneurship, with successful interventions including tailored training programs and financial support for aspiring entrepreneurs [26][27]. - Micro-entrepreneurship programs have shown positive impacts on economic and social outcomes, with a significant share of programs reporting benefits in women's empowerment and income diversification [30][31]. Human Capital and Job Creation - The report underscores the need for holistic support systems that integrate financial assistance, skills training, and market access to empower disadvantaged groups and foster entrepreneurship [34][35]. - Collaborative partnerships between universities and the private sector can enhance innovation and job creation through research and development initiatives [34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Uttar Pradesh, but it emphasizes the potential for economic gains through improved agricultural practices and water management [6]. Core Insights - The UP Accelerator PRAGATI initiative aims to transform agricultural development in Uttar Pradesh by enhancing water use efficiency, increasing agricultural productivity, and promoting climate-resilient practices [5][6]. - The initiative targets to support 1 million farmers in improving their incomes and adopting sustainable agriculture and water management practices [6]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Challenges - Key challenges impacting agricultural productivity and farmer incomes in Uttar Pradesh include declining groundwater levels, fragmented land holdings, low technology adoption rates, information asymmetry in value chains, limited crop diversification, and inadequate access to inputs and finance [3]. Program Components - **Component 1**: Enhance water use efficiency by increasing the net irrigated area under micro-irrigation and expanding climate-smart rice-wheat systems [7]. - **Component 2**: Increase agricultural productivity through improved access to farm machinery via custom hiring centers and digital platforms, enhancing the adoption of water-saving practices [8]. - **Component 3**: Sequester carbon and reduce emissions by supporting climate-positive practices that decarbonize agricultural value chains [9]. Governance and Implementation - The UP Accelerator PRAGATI is implemented through the UP Diversified Agriculture Support Project, with a dedicated Project Management Unit established to support program implementation [10]. - The initiative provides a one-stop shop for service delivery, opportunities for private sector engagement, and advisory services to strengthen agricultural value chains [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Nitrogen fertilizer is crucial for enhancing agricultural yields, but its subsidized use often leads to inefficiencies, resulting in negative economic and environmental impacts [3][10] - Over 50% of global agricultural production occurs in regions with high nitrogen subsidies, where additional fertilizer application yields negative marginal benefits [3][10] - Up to 17% of nitrogen pollution in water is attributed to inefficient fertilizer subsidies, contributing to environmental issues like hypoxic zones and harmful algal blooms [3][10] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the transformative impact of nitrogen on global agriculture, significantly increasing yields and supporting billions of lives since the 20th century [8][9] Subsidy Dynamics - Fertilizer subsidies are substantial in many countries, with India spending approximately $10 billion to $11 billion annually, primarily on nitrogen [10] - The rationale for these subsidies includes stimulating agricultural production and stabilizing food prices, but they often lead to market distortions and inefficiencies [11][12] Agricultural Productivity - The report presents evidence that nitrogen fertilizer has heterogeneous effects on yields, with diminishing returns observed at higher application levels [39][40] - Regions like East Asia and South Asia are at the high end of nitrogen usage, experiencing diminishing returns, while Sub-Saharan Africa shows low usage and potential food security risks [41][43] Water Quality - Increased nitrogen fertilizer use correlates with significant water quality deterioration, leading to harmful algal blooms and other environmental issues [50][51] - A 10% increase in nitrogen fertilizer use results in a 1.6% to 3.4% increase in nitrogen concentration in water, indicating a strong link between agricultural practices and water pollution [51][52] Impact of Subsidies on Pollution - Coupled producer support significantly impacts nitrogen pollution levels, with estimates suggesting that input support accounts for approximately 17% of nitrogen pollution over the past 30 years [57]