证券研究报告•宏观简评 宏观简评报告 提振消费政策的要点 | 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 分析师： | 周君芝 | 电话：15601683648 | SAC 编号： | S1440524020001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分析师： | 王泽选 | 电话：010-86451441 | SAC 编号： | S1440520070003 | 核心观点 国新办提振消费会议涉及 6 大部门，已知政策主要集中在财政和信贷。 此次会议较为明确的政策工具有两处，一是针对以旧换新、民生领域（医疗就业）给出具体数据；二是勾勒未 来还可动用的工具有货币信贷、财政贴息，只不过当前未给出明确数据。 此前市场最关注的生育补贴，虽未给出具体政策数据，但前日呼市给出的生育补贴信息，提高市场预期空间。 事实上早在 2021 年 7 月，四川攀枝花市便率先推出育儿补贴政策，后续各地也有陆续跟进（如浙江温州、湖 北荆门等）。 我们认为，生育补贴政策效果关键在于三对关系平衡：财政资金、部门联动、地方激励兼容。这或许也是关注 未来生育补贴政策需要密切跟踪的重点。 信 ...

证券研究报告•海外经济与大类资产简评 （1）恒科能否打通"经济提供 EPS 保障+AI 打开 PE 空间"的任督二脉？纳指 AI 叙事只是表象， 牛市根基在美国经济稳健。我国本轮牛市，经济复苏不能缺席。 （2）恒科能否重现 2013 互联网+行情"股价上涨带动盈利改善"的正反馈？彼时一大亮点是股 价和盈利内循环，本轮 AI 行情在这一机制上，或略逊色，但预期是动态变化的。 （3）恒科与纳指估值差距收敛，短期比价优势下降，但交易的趋势性不能轻视。 （4）美国衰退、美股盈利的压力多大？经济边际走弱，但美股盈利预期稳定，不像在定价深度 衰退。 （5）欧美资金后续会接力吗？南向和亚太目前是加仓主力。 （6）德国能不能再助攻一把？关注三个节点：议案通过情况、欧央行货币宽松配合态度、基建 等实际效果。 事件： 恒科 vs 纳指，后续的几个问题 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 18 日 分析师： 钱伟 SAC 编号： S1440521110002 核心观点： 年初至 3 月 17 日，纳斯达克指数下跌 8%，恒生科技指数上涨 31%，二者分化显著。 简评： "东升西落"的叙事自年初演绎至今，中美科技股的分化超出此前市场预 ...

证券研究报告·行业动态 2024 公募代销数据点评：ETF 驱动下的代销新格局 核心观点 24 年非货基金代销保有规模的增长主要由以股票 ETF 为代表的 股指基金所推动，债基代销规模亦迎来持续的增加，而主动权益 代销保有却在市场回暖下出现下滑。代销格局维度，主动权益仍 以银行领先；股指基金则以券商居上，24 下半年银行奋起直追； 固收类产品代销则以银行、三方为首。公募保有量本身的排名或 无法直观反映机构的能力，更多反映的是机构的选择。展望未来， 如何提高投资者的赚钱比例？实现基民回报、渠道回报、基金公 司回报三者之间的平衡或是其中的关键。实现"投资者获得感提 升-资本市场长期稳健发展"的正向循环，需要财富管理行业真正 站在客户的一边，而这需要投顾的力量、受托责任的力量、资产 配置和再平衡的力量。 亓良宸 事件 2025 年 3 月 14 日，中国证券投资基金业协会披露 2024 年下 半年基金销售机构公募基金销售保有规模数据。 数据显示，公募基金代销（前 100 名机构，下同）非货基金 保有规模 9.54 万亿，较上半年增加 7.6%，较去年同期增加 11.6%； 权益基金保有规模 4.85 万亿，较上半年 ...

证券研究报告·行业动态 销售与投资降幅均收窄，止跌回稳现积极成效 ——2025 年 1-2 月统计局房地产数据点评 核心观点 中央稳楼市决心坚定，政策持续助力房地产市场止跌回稳，1-2 月全国商品房销售面积同比下降 5.1%，降幅较 2024 年全年收窄 7.8 个百分点，高频数据显示 3 月以来市场延续止跌回稳势头。 得益于房企在核心城市、尤其是一线城市保持较高的拿地热情， 1-2 月房地产开发投资额降幅出现收窄；保交楼持续推进背景下， 竣工降幅出现大幅收窄；相对而言，新开工降幅仍较大，情况好 转尚待销售与拿地的进一步改善。 统计局公布 2025 年 1-2 月房地产市场运行情况，1-2 月单月房地 产销售面积、投资额、新开工面积、竣工面积分别为 10746 万平 方米、10720 亿元、6614 万平方米、8764 万平方米，同比增速分 别为-5.1%、-9.8%、-29.6%、-15.6%，2024 年全年分别为-12.9%、 -10.6%、-23.0%、-27.7%。 销售降幅收窄，止跌回稳现积极成效。中央稳楼市决心坚定，政 策持续助力房地产市场止跌回稳，1-2 月全国商品房销售面积同 比下降 5.1 ...

证券研究报告·行业动态 文心大模型 4.5 和 X1 发布，关注英伟 达 GTC 2025 发布会 核心观点 产业要闻 【谷歌 Gemini 2.0 革新图像生成】 【文心大模型 4.5 和文心大模型 X1 正式发布】 【CoolIT 推出新一代冷板 散热超 GB200 三倍】 【闪迪宣布自 4 月 1 日起对所有渠道和消费类产品提价超 10%】 【百度地图发布智驾级车位导航】 【文远知行、小马智行在京开启自动驾驶出行收费服务】 持续关注： GPU：英伟达、超威半导体、海光信息等； FPGA：安路科技-U 等； SoC：高通、全志科技等； 自然语言处理：科大讯飞等； 计算机视觉：格灵深瞳-U 等； 自动驾驶：德赛西威、中科创达、均胜电子、光庭信息； 智慧交通：千方科技、万集科技； AI+工业：中控技术、华大九天、广立微、概伦电子等。 于芳博 yufangbo@csc.com.cn 010-86451607 SAC 编号:S1440522030001 发布日期： 2025 年 03 月 17 日 -26% -6% 14% 34% 54% 202 4/1/ 12 202 4/2/ 12 202 4/3/12 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][15]. Core Views - The company has solidified its foundation and improved operational quality, achieving stable performance despite external pressures and optimizing its business structure. The performance aligns with expectations, with the blood circulation product series enhancing brand recognition through the "777" strategy [1][9]. - Future prospects include continued brand development for Kun Chinese Medicine, expected synergies from the acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo, effective channel reforms anticipated to show results starting in 2025, and a gradual weakening of external environmental impacts [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 84.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.48 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.86%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 4.19 billion yuan, up 25.09% [2][9]. - Key financial metrics for 2023 to 2027 show a projected revenue increase from 84.01 billion yuan in 2024 to 113.50 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 6.48 billion yuan to 9.73 billion yuan over the same period [3][15]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on the "777" brand strategy to enhance the blood circulation product series, which is expected to drive growth despite external challenges [10][11]. - The integration of the Sanqi industry chain with Huaren Shenghuo is anticipated to maximize value through collaborative advantages in product development and marketing [14]. - The company is implementing channel reforms to enhance long-term partnerships and digital operations, with expected positive impacts on performance starting in 2025 [14]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 43.46%, a decrease of 3.15 percentage points, influenced by revenue and product structure changes. The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.82 percentage points to 26.50% [13]. - The company has seen a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 7.12% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced marketing expenses [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][32]. Core Viewpoints - The company has launched the DH series dexterous hands, which includes models with 11, 20, and 24 degrees of freedom, with the first "popular" model set for trial production and sales starting in Q2 2025. The dexterous hands are designed for various applications beyond humanoid robots, with a long-term market potential exceeding 100 billion [1][3][11]. - The dexterous hands are positioned to leverage the company's existing advantages in motion control, offering high added value and unit price, while being less dependent on distribution channels. This opens up a broader market space as they can be installed on various embodied intelligent agents [2][18]. - The company is transitioning from a "stepping + servo + PLC" model to a "joint module + dexterous hand + brain" model, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities in the humanoid robot sector [4][30]. Summary by Sections Launch of DH Series Dexterous Hands - The DH series dexterous hands were officially launched on March 13, 2025, with the first model, DH116, featuring 11 degrees of freedom and a maximum load capacity of 40 kg, making it suitable for industrial and commercial automation [2][11][15]. Market Potential - The market for dexterous hands is projected to reach 108.73 billion yuan when humanoid robot production reaches 5 million units. The dexterous hands can also be installed on industrial robots and collaborative robots, significantly expanding the potential market [3][19][25]. Strategic Positioning in Humanoid Robotics - The company has established a strong foundation in the robotics sector, with a market share of 3.8% in servo products as of 2024, positioning itself as a key supplier of core components and solutions in the humanoid robotics market [4][30][28]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 215 million, 278 million, and 355 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54.85%, 29.48%, and 27.62%, respectively. The report continues to recommend a "Buy" rating based on the company's leading position in the industry and extensive layout in humanoid robotics [8][32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.431 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 347 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 299 million yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year changes of -5.66%, -7.53%, and +0.83% respectively. The slight decline in revenue is attributed to weak external demand and the company's proactive adjustment of its sales structure. The positive growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items indicates stable operations, with expectations for the automotive business to enhance performance and profitability as it scales up [2][3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.431 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.66% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 347 million yuan, down 7.53%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 0.83% to 299 million yuan [2][3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.140 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.01% to 89 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 22.05% to 63 million yuan [3]. Business Segments - The general lighting segment generated revenue of 3.785 billion yuan, down 6.35% year-on-year, impacted by a decline in export values and the company's decision to reduce operations in high-risk areas. The average selling price (ASP) increased by 1.5% year-on-year, indicating potential stabilization in revenue [3][10]. - The automotive business reported revenue of 596 million yuan, a decrease of 4.43% year-on-year, affected by delays in key projects. However, with the resolution of these issues and new project launches, the automotive segment is expected to see steady growth [3][10]. Profitability - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 19.21% and 7.78%, respectively, showing slight declines of 0.14 percentage points and 0.27 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for the lighting and automotive segments were 19.59% and 15.80%, respectively [4][9]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.74 yuan per share, totaling approximately 346 million yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of about 99.65%, marking a significant increase from the previous year [11]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic general lighting market, with stable contributions from its traditional business and significant growth potential in the automotive sector. The report forecasts net profits of 400 million yuan and 450 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15X and 14X [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.56 yuan for the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17.172 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 840 million yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year. The growth rate of net profit outpaced revenue growth due to improved profitability and effective cost control [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.172 billion yuan, a 9.9% increase from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, reflecting a 14.2% growth. The net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth primarily due to enhanced profitability, with a gross margin of 12.0%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a decrease in expense ratio to 4.3%, down 0.5 percentage points [1][3][4]. Business Operations - The company managed 2,296 projects with a total managed area of 365 million square meters by the end of 2024, an increase of 20 million square meters from the previous year. The new contract amount signed during the year was 4.03 billion yuan, with significant contributions from non-residential sectors such as government public construction, parks, healthcare, transportation, and high-end manufacturing [1][4][19]. Service Segments - The basic property management segment generated a revenue of 13.4 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. The non-residential segment achieved a revenue of 9.67 billion yuan, growing 11.0%, while the residential segment reported a revenue of 3.73 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase. The company also saw strong growth in value-added services, with total revenue from these services reaching 3.09 billion yuan, a 16.7% increase [4][11]. Future Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.91, 1.03, and 1.16 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times for 2025, leading to an adjusted target price of 14.56 yuan [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% [4][15]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust growth in its CHC (Consumer Health Care) segment, driven by its core cold medicine category, and is expected to continue expanding its product offerings and market presence [1][8]. - The prescription drug segment is gradually recovering, with a focus on enriching the product pipeline and responding to external industry changes [1][10]. - The acquisition of a 28% stake in Tianjin Tianshi is progressing smoothly and is anticipated to positively impact the company's earnings starting in 2025 [11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 27.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and a net profit of 3.368 billion yuan, up 18.05% [2][8]. - The CHC business generated revenue of 12.482 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 14.13%, while the prescription drug business saw revenue of 6.006 billion yuan, an increase of 15.04% [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 51.86%, with a slight decrease attributed to changes in business structure and external factors [14]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.429 billion yuan and net profits of 3.868 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 10.2% and 14.8%, respectively [3][15]. - The CHC segment is expected to maintain steady growth, while the prescription drug segment is anticipated to continue its recovery, supported by strategic product development and market expansion efforts [13][15]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand influence and product offerings through a "1+N" brand strategy, which aims to strengthen its market position in the OTC and professional brand segments [13]. - The integration of the acquired Tianjin Tianshi assets is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, driving innovation and market competitiveness [12][11].