Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Light Industry Manufacturing Index Trend Tracking Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, always following a certain trend. Reversal trends are shorter in duration compared to trend continuation. In cases of narrow-range consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. When observing a large-scale trend, the price movement within a short observation window will extend the local trend. Reversals are identified when price changes at the start and end of the observation window exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, eliminating the impact of randomness[3][4] **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the difference `del` between the closing price on day T and day T-20 - Compute the volatility `Vol` for the period from day T-20 to day T (excluding day T) - If the absolute value of `del` exceeds N times `Vol`, the current price is considered to have exited the original oscillation range and formed a trend. The trend direction corresponds to the sign of `del`. If not, the trend direction is assumed to continue as per day T-1 - For stock markets with higher volatility, N is set to 1 for tracking - Combine the returns from both long and short directions to evaluate the strategy's overall performance Formula: $ del = P_{T} - P_{T-20} $ $ Vol = \sqrt{\frac{1}{20} \sum_{i=1}^{20} (P_{T-i} - \bar{P})^2} $ where $ P_{T} $ is the closing price on day T, $ P_{T-20} $ is the closing price on day T-20, and $ \bar{P} $ is the average price over the observation period[3][4] **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved high returns during the tracking period but experienced significant drawdowns in the early and middle stages. It is not suitable for direct application to the Light Industry Manufacturing Index[4] Model Backtesting Results - **Light Industry Manufacturing Index Trend Tracking Model**: - Annualized Return: 17.68%[3] - Annualized Volatility: 24.10%[3] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.73[3] - Maximum Drawdown: 24.90%[3] - Total Return of Index During Period: -16.46%[3]

- The industry crowding monitoring model is constructed to monitor the crowding level of Shenwan first-level industry indices daily[3] - The Z-score model is used to build a signal screening model for related ETF products, providing potential arbitrage opportunities[4] Model Construction Process - Industry crowding monitoring model: The model monitors the crowding level of Shenwan first-level industry indices daily, identifying industries with high and low crowding levels[3] - Z-score model: The model calculates the Z-score of the premium rate for ETF products, identifying potential arbitrage opportunities and warning of potential pullback risks[4] Model Evaluation - Industry crowding monitoring model: The model effectively identifies industries with significant crowding levels, providing valuable insights for investment decisions[3] - Z-score model: The model is useful for identifying potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products, but investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks[4] Model Testing Results - Industry crowding monitoring model: The model identified high crowding levels in the pharmaceutical, environmental protection, and steel industries, while communication and media industries had low crowding levels[3] - Z-score model: The model provided signals for potential arbitrage opportunities in various ETF products, including the Real Estate ETF, Gold ETF, Green Power ETF, and Biopharmaceutical ETF[15] Factor Construction Process - Industry crowding factor: The factor is constructed based on the daily monitoring of the crowding level of Shenwan first-level industry indices[3] - Premium rate Z-score factor: The factor is constructed by calculating the Z-score of the premium rate for ETF products[4] Factor Evaluation - Industry crowding factor: The factor is effective in identifying industries with significant crowding levels, providing valuable insights for investment decisions[3] - Premium rate Z-score factor: The factor is useful for identifying potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products, but investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks[4] Factor Testing Results - Industry crowding factor: The factor identified high crowding levels in the pharmaceutical, environmental protection, and steel industries, while communication and media industries had low crowding levels[3] - Premium rate Z-score factor: The factor provided signals for potential arbitrage opportunities in various ETF products, including the Real Estate ETF, Gold ETF, Green Power ETF, and Biopharmaceutical ETF[15]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a mixed performance with long-term bonds rising and short-term bonds slightly declining. The market has stabilized near the six-month line, indicating potential for allocation [16] - The stock market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.38%, with a correction in overly pessimistic sentiment. The pharmaceutical and controllable nuclear fusion sectors experienced significant gains [19] - The foreign exchange market reported the onshore RMB against the USD at 7.2684, up 165 basis points from the previous close, indicating a strong support level around 7.1 [26] - The commodity market saw the Wenhua Commodity Index increase by 0.8%, led by gains in oil, coal, and construction materials, while feed, oils, and live pig sectors declined [33] Group 2: Important Policies and News - Domestic policies include support for insurance companies to establish private equity funds for long-term stock market investments, reflecting a push for financial innovation [36] - The March Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, the highest in four months, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [36] - Internationally, the Australian central bank maintains a cautious outlook on monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of returning inflation to target levels [39]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index [2][10]. Core Insights - The steel industry experienced an overall decline on April 1, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.38% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices saw slight decreases [2]. - Tangshan's 26 steel enterprises have all completed environmental certifications, leading the nation in this regard. The total loan balance for the steel industry in Tangshan exceeds 160 billion yuan, with green loans accounting for 150 billion yuan [5]. - Jiangsu Province's steel industry revenue reached 1.58 trillion yuan in 2024, with high-end special steel accounting for over 35% for the first time. Jiangsu is undergoing a strategic transformation from "scale-driven" to "value-driven" [5]. Market Performance - The top three gainers in the steel sector include Hengxing Technology (+10.13%), Honghai Technology (+5.96%), and Jiuli Special Materials (+5.15%). The top three decliners are Hangang Co. (-3.37%), Zhongnan Co. (-1.11%), and Shagang Co. (-1.05%) [3]. - Futures data shows slight fluctuations in steel products, with rebar down by 0.09% and iron ore up by 1.86% [4]. Industry Data - Current prices for steel products are as follows: iron ore at 766.43 yuan/ton, rebar at 3209.35 yuan/ton, and hot-rolled coil at 3373.27 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore Platts index indicates prices of 116.25 for 65% powder, 88.2 for 58% powder, and 103.85 for 62% powder [4]. Company Announcements - The Panzhihua Steel Group's lime kiln denitrification project commenced operations on March 18, 2025, significantly reducing nitrogen oxide emissions [6][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [7] Core Insights - The Indian API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) support plan has not met expectations, with delays in capacity release [1] - The Indian government initiated the API PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) plan and API park plan in 2020, with a total expected expenditure of 69.4 billion INR (approximately 795 million USD) to promote domestic production of 53 APIs [2] - Progress on the construction of API parks in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh is slow, with an extended deadline to Q1 2026 [3] - The overall implementation of the API PLI plan has been unsatisfactory, with insufficient fund utilization over three consecutive years [4] - The release of new API capacity in India will take additional time, with a potential realization of capacity release around 2027-2028, while Chinese API companies maintain a comparative advantage [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Indian API support plan's implementation has been less effective than anticipated, leading to a delay in capacity release [1] - The construction of three API parks is progressing slowly, with a revised completion timeline set for March 2026 [3] Financial Insights - The total financial assistance allocated to the three states for API park construction is 43.71 billion INR for Gujarat, 26.05 billion INR for Himachal Pradesh, and 35.73 billion INR for Andhra Pradesh, with varying levels of fund utilization [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the API sector include companies expanding into formulation and CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) fields, those with a high proportion of new product business, and companies with significant potential for earnings recovery due to inventory destocking [6]

- Industry crowding monitoring model is constructed to monitor the crowding level of Shenwan first-level industry indices daily[3] - The Z-score model is used to build ETF product screening signal models, providing potential arbitrage opportunities and warning of potential pullback risks[4] Model Backtesting Results - Industry crowding monitoring model, steel, environmental protection, and mechanical equipment have high crowding levels, while food and beverage, real estate, and building materials have low crowding levels[3] - Z-score model, ETF products with potential arbitrage opportunities include integrated circuit ETF, Southeast Asia technology ETF, and medical ETF[12] ETF Product Daily Net Inflow/Outflow - Broad-based ETF: A500 Index ETF (+7.91 billion yuan), CSI 1000 ETF (+7.10 billion yuan), A500 Index ETF (+7.02 billion yuan)[6] - Industry theme ETF: Securities ETF (+3.69 billion yuan), Brokerage ETF (+2.34 billion yuan), Robot ETF (+2.06 billion yuan)[6] - Style strategy ETF: Free cash flow ETF (+1.13 billion yuan), Dividend low volatility ETF (+0.90 billion yuan), Dividend low volatility 50 ETF (+0.90 billion yuan)[6] - Cross-border ETF: Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (+11.93 billion yuan), Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (+5.95 billion yuan), Hang Seng Technology ETF (+1.45 billion yuan)[6] ETF Product Daily Net Outflow - Broad-based ETF: A500 ETF Fund (-3.38 billion yuan), CSI 500 ETF (-2.84 billion yuan), CSI 300 ETF Huaxia (-1.66 billion yuan)[6] - Industry theme ETF: Bank ETF Long (-2.67 billion yuan), Chemical ETF (-0.71 billion yuan), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (-0.59 billion yuan)[6] - Style strategy ETF: Dividend ETF Fund (-1.68 billion yuan), Dividend ETF E Fund (-0.30 billion yuan), Dividend low volatility ETF Xinhua (-0.19 billion yuan)[6] - Cross-border ETF: Hang Seng Medical ETF (-2.10 billion yuan), Dividend ETF Hong Kong stocks (-1.39 billion yuan), Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (-0.87 billion yuan)[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy/Maintain" with a target price of 17.68, compared to the last closing price of 13.90 [1]. Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a positive outlook for the coming year. The 2024 annual report indicates a revenue of 3.476 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.41%, and a net profit of 625 million, up 36.77% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 1.112 billion, a 21.57% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 192 million, up 41.03% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 34.76 billion, with a net profit of 6.25 billion. The fourth quarter's revenue was 11.12 billion, with a net profit of 1.92 billion. The company also distributed a total dividend of 6.1 billion, representing a payout ratio of 97.62% [4][5]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines in 2024 was as follows: Chinese seasoning (1.771 billion, +16.6%), hot pot base (1.265 billion, +3.5%), and sausages and cured meats (329 million, +11.0%) [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 39.8%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 13.0% [4][5]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue and profit growth of no less than 15%. The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 39.89 billion, 44.35 billion, and 49.23 billion, with corresponding net profits of 7.2 billion, 8.2 billion, and 9.0 billion [5][7]. - The company plans to accelerate product innovation and expand its distribution channels, with new products expected to contribute to growth. The acquisition of online companies is aimed at enhancing online marketing advantages [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21, 18, and 17, respectively. The target price is based on a 26x PE for 2025 earnings [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price based on the last closing price of 61.61 [1] Core Views - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group is under pressure, awaiting a recovery in consumer spending [1] - The significant decline in revenue and net profit is attributed to multiple factors including market conditions and industry cycles, with a notable drop in consumer demand impacting the duty-free sector [5] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 49.51 billion, 57.09 billion, and 64.41 billion respectively, indicating a growth rate of 16.04%, 15.31%, and 12.81% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 564.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 42.67 billion, down 36.44% [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 134.53 billion, a decline of 19.46%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion, down 76.93% [4] - The sales revenue from duty-free goods was approximately 386.66 billion, a decrease of 12.58%, while sales from taxable goods fell to about 170.95 billion, down 23.49% [5] - The revenue from Hainan, a key market, dropped significantly by 27.13% to about 288.92 billion, despite an increase in market share [5] Growth Potential - The domestic duty-free business performed well, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and increased international flight volumes, with revenue from Beijing airports growing over 115% and Shanghai airports nearly 32% [6] - The company has made significant progress in channel expansion, securing operating rights for 10 new airport and port duty-free projects, and has signed agreements for six city duty-free stores [6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.03%, a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, down 2.15 percentage points [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.76, and 3.11 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [8][9] - Revenue projections for the next three years are 61.68 billion, 68.32 billion, and 75.32 billion, with growth rates of 9.23%, 10.76%, and 10.24% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 81.19, compared to the last closing price of 76.53 [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer is expected to face sales pressure in 2024, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1][5]. - The company's 2024 revenue is reported at 32.138 billion, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.345 billion, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [5][8]. - The report highlights that the beer sales volume in 2024 is under pressure, with a total production of 35.213 million tons in China, down 0.6% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales volume of 7.538 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 4189.3 yuan per ton, up 0.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main brand sales volume was 4.34 million tons, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a decline of 7.2% [5][6]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased to 2548 yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 40.23%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [6][8]. - The net profit margin reached 13.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 2% for 2027, with net profit growth of 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53, 3.84, and 4.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [6][8].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with long-term bonds slightly rising and short-term bonds slightly falling. The overall tightening of the funding environment has raised the price center of funds, leading to a correction of previously overestimated interest rate cut expectations. The bond market has stabilized near the six-month line and currently presents allocation value. The technical rebound structure of the bond market remains intact, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [1][13]. - In the stock market, over 3,800 stocks declined amid overall market adjustments. With the upcoming tariff policies and earnings season, the market's overall adjustment is not yet over. Low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns. Without significant positive news, trading volume is unlikely to exceed 20 trillion. Investors are advised to reduce positions in technology stocks and focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare stocks [2][17]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB against the USD at 7.2519, down 109 basis points from the previous close. The USD index has shown a bearish trend post-Fed meeting, with expectations of continued short-term rebounds. The CNY/USD has strong support around 7.1, and the RMB may face depreciation pressure in the medium to long term due to trade war pressures [3][21]. Group 2: Important Policies and News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to coordinate the management of overseas listing filings, emphasizing the importance of high-level opening of capital markets to support enterprises in integrating into the global economy [30]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has mandated a comprehensive review and cleanup of enterprise-related fee items to ensure each project has a basis, aiming to enhance transparency and accuracy in fee structures [30]. - The cancellation of housing sales restrictions in Nanjing is expected to meet various housing replacement needs, effective from March 31, 2025 [30].