各位投资者大家好我是银河证券研究院汽车行业分析师石金曼现在由我为大家带来中国银河证券研究院中资出海专题系列研究的汽车方向诚心能源知识诉海外产业集群本次报告我们主要分为五个部分那么第一部分主要讲一下概况产业升级助力汽车出口四年增长四倍 第二部分我们分析新能源汽车出口主要由产品出海到产能出海第三部分是燃油车我们认为具备高性价比产品丰富的优势将会带动燃油车产品出口量价提升第四部分衍生品包括零部件销售渠道运输物流充电桩等领域的 全产业链出海会打到海外新能源汽车产业集群的优势那么剩下第五部分是投资建议首先呢第一部分我们看在当前全球汽车工业正在经历第四次发展窗口期 汽车正在向科技品时代度过随着中国新能源汽车不断提升的产品竞争力2023年中国超越日本躋身全球为最大的汽车出口国在出口销量方面2020年中国汽车出口迎来爆发从108.1万辆提升到了2023年的522.1万辆整车数量出口四年增长四倍 从出口的结构来看那么整车的出口金额增速是远高于零部件的那么这个呢也是这个带动了我国新能源汽车转型以及品牌突破的一个新的趋势我国零部件那么整体实力之前呈现出了大而不强 新能源的转型突破有望助力我国配套类部件产业链实现产品和品牌的升级那这 ...

证明给予的理解和配合谢谢 各位投资者大家上午好我是东森圈的技术分析师黄细莉非常感谢大家能够支持关注我们基本材质的这样会议那么从去年四度开始以来我们团队其实是坚持每个季度做策略报告的一个更新那么今天刚好也是三月的最后一天在假期正式开始之前的话我们也想借大家一个小时主要时间来跟大家详细的汇报一下我们对当前选点七月四度的一个投资对吧总体观点的话我们会认为我们总的选股的速度其实是延续 三级度围绕全球化、持续化这两条主线C度其实我们还是围绕这两条主线下面有些国家优选核心媒体各股那么整体呢更是相比分度我们认为C度是可以从投资角度来说来看是可以更乐观 自治政策和爽的情绪,我们认为非常好,这是一个非常大的前提,尤其其实还有很多在港股的指数股来看,整个流劲的一个就是说服的话也是非常重要的一个爽的前提,那是第一个,所以肯定是非常重要的一个我们认为更乐观的一个点,第二个的话就是其实本身的基本面而言的话,我们会认为 四一度医学环境的政策在四一度无论城市中坎和科特这边都是去体现的是比较明显的只是呢本身技术技能面积是在积极的一个持续的一个向上的一个过程我觉得也是很好的去匹配整个市场现在的一个情绪的一个向上这两个方面综合吧我们会认为是对四 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The passenger car market has entered a phase of "micro-growth," with manufacturers exploring new growth opportunities beyond new energy vehicles (NEVs), focusing on the potential of replacement and additional purchase users [2] - Replacement and additional purchase users are seen as a new driving force for the industry, with a significant base of 345 million vehicles in China offering substantial market potential [2] - However, consumer income expectations remain pessimistic, raising questions about the effectiveness of government policies aimed at stimulating replacement demand [2] - Replacement users exhibit unique behavioral characteristics and preferences, which manufacturers can leverage to capture market opportunities [2] - The report highlights interesting trends, such as some NEV users switching back to fuel vehicles during replacement, and questions whether this trend will persist and impact the NEV market [2] Replacement and Additional Purchase User Trends - The replacement cycle is typically over 8 years, with a peak expected between 2024 and 2026, though concerns remain about prolonged replacement cycles due to poor income expectations [3] - Replacement subsidies can aid in converting user intentions, but users often lack clear understanding of these policies, and the threshold for effective subsidy amounts has increased [3] - Replacement users tend to first select their desired vehicle model or even complete the new car purchase before selling their old car, making it challenging to predict the timing of replacements [5] - Replacement users have a broader selection range, with twice as many vehicle models considered compared to first-time buyers, and they prefer content such as reviews and user experiences to aid decision-making [5] - Replacement users are divided into three groups: economically driven, experience-driven, and demand-driven, with price and size upgrades remaining the main trend, though mid-range users (10-300k RMB) show signs of upgrade fatigue [5] - Additional purchase users show distinct preferences: those buying fuel vehicles prioritize brand and reputation, while those buying NEVs focus on experiencing intelligent features [5] Replacement User Demographics and Preferences - Replacement users are predominantly male, aged 30-50, and married with children, with over 40% having a household income of 200-500k RMB [9][11] - Replacement users are concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, with a significant middle-class demographic [11] - Replacement users are categorized into three groups: economically driven, experience-driven, and demand-driven, with further segmentation into eight subgroups based on income, age, and preferences [12] - Economically driven users are sensitive to price and prefer Chinese or joint-venture fuel vehicles, while experience-driven users prioritize advanced technology and intelligent features [15][17] - Demand-driven users focus on reliability, brand reputation, and safety, with preferences varying by income level and location [20] Replacement User Behavior and Decision-Making - Replacement users exhibit cautious and rational behavior, with a broader selection range, longer browsing times, and higher interaction rates compared to first-time buyers [31] - Replacement users prioritize safety, price, and brand reputation when purchasing vehicles, with a greater focus on comfort, intelligent features, and technical upgrades compared to first-time buyers [44] - Replacement users are less loyal to their previous brands, with 90% considering other brands during replacement, driven by a desire to try new brands or dissatisfaction with their previous vehicle [45] - The concentration of brand preferences among replacement users is declining, with independent NEV brands rapidly gaining market share, particularly in the mid-range segment [49][60] Additional Purchase User Trends - Additional purchase users are typically older, with a higher proportion of middle-aged and high-income individuals, and a preference for NEVs, especially pure electric vehicles [66][69] - Additional purchase users are divided into two groups: those preferring NEVs, who are younger and more focused on intelligent features, and those preferring fuel vehicles, who are more influenced by price and brand reputation [71][76] - Additional purchase users of fuel vehicles are more economically driven, while those purchasing NEVs are more influenced by experience and technological advancements [77] Market Dynamics and Trends - Price and size upgrades remain the main trend in the replacement market, with an average price increase of approximately 40k RMB, though mid-range users (10-300k RMB) show signs of upgrade fatigue [36][39] - The preference for NEVs among replacement users is growing, with plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles expected to surpass pure electric vehicles in the next 1-2 years [50] - The phenomenon of NEV users switching back to fuel vehicles is minimal (less than 2%) and not expected to significantly impact the NEV market [52] - Independent NEV brands are rapidly gaining market share, particularly in the mid-range segment, while Tesla's share among replacement users has declined [60][61]

Summary of Geely Auto Conference Call Company Overview - Geely Holding Group is a privately held company almost entirely owned by the Li Shufu family, with two core automotive groups: Geely Auto Group and Volvo Cars. The group also owns several brands including Polestar, Lotus, smart, and Zeekr, and holds stakes in Daimler, Volvo Trucks, and Aston Martin [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Geely Holding Group achieved total revenue of 260 billion RMB, with 40% (approximately 104 billion RMB) from Geely Auto and 50% (approximately 130 billion RMB) from Volvo Cars. The group reported a profit of about 13 billion RMB [3] - Geely Auto's total sales reached 960,000 units in the first half of 2024, representing a 40% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by export markets and fuel vehicle sales. Revenue grew by 47% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1% [7][8] - Geely Auto's profit for the first half of 2024 was close to 10 billion RMB, including a one-time gain of approximately 7 billion RMB from a joint venture with Renault. Excluding this, the net profit from core operations was about 3 billion RMB, up from 1.3 billion RMB in the same period last year [9] Strategic Developments - Geely has undergone internal strategic integration, notably merging its cockpit and autonomous driving departments. All models will now use Meizu's cockpit solution, while autonomous driving technology will focus on Nvidia's solution and a lower-end, volume-driven autonomous solution [10] - The company has set a sales target of 2 million units for the year, with expectations to exceed this target, potentially reaching around 2.05 million units. Projected net profit for the year, excluding one-time gains, is estimated to be between 7 to 8 billion RMB [11] Technological Advantages - Geely's primary technological advantage lies in platformization, which supports multi-model development through economies of scale. The company currently utilizes four main platforms: CMA, SPA, Haohan Electric, and GGA, enhancing R&D efficiency and market competitiveness [6] Brand Relationships - The relationship between Geely's brands and listed companies is complex. Volvo is fully owned by the Swedish listed company Volvo Cars AB, while Polestar is held by Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC, and Lotus is owned by Lotus Technology Inc. Zeekr is consolidated into Geely's Hong Kong-listed entity while also being independently listed in the US [5] Future Outlook - Zeekr, listed on the NYSE, reported revenue of 34.8 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with 62% from vehicle sales and a gross margin of 14.9%. The company aims for a sales target of 230,000 units for the year, with projected total revenue of 82.6 billion RMB [12][13] - Despite intense market competition, Geely and its subsidiaries are viewed positively due to strong technological capabilities and platform advantages. The company has a solid base of over 1 million fuel vehicles, and its new energy models are gradually becoming profitable, enhancing overall profitability [14]

升级能力或者说突破清华版的能力有限最终也还只是能够解决部分范围内的问题第二呢是它这个代码由于过于复杂的往往也容易出现越到后期中高阶它的效率越低的一个现象 那么从过去两年开始,特斯拉ISD所引领的这个大模型就在解决这些问题。比如说我们能够从特斯拉的公开信息中看到,在它的大模型上线之后,它的制价的累计形式里程是快速提升的。 那么在国内的话,华为、理想、小鹏、蔚来等等,就一个自动驾驶走得比较靠前的车企,也在快速地尝试使用大模型来解决这些无都城市、MOA中碰到的很多问题。 那么我们从理想这边看到它的进展是比较快的,那么根据公司的披露,截止到今年8月份,理想汽车已经实现了接近23亿公里的自驾数据的累积。 那么在七月份大模型开始上车之后,这个数据的累计速度是每个月两亿公里左右,这是一个非常快的速度。也可以说呢,我们认为在带大模型的版本上车之后,理想的自驾旅程实现了一个快速的提升。 目前,截至8月份,理想汽车的累计是23亿,蔚来是12亿公里,鸿蒙系是6亿公里,我们可以看到它的差异。 是由于理想有非常大的用户的基数比如说公司披露截止8月底它有91万人的用户那么这样大的一个用户规模对应它的里程积累就比较快那么为什么里程积累比较 ...

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Asia China Consumer Autos & Auto Technology Industry Autos & Auto Technology Date 24 September 2024 Industry Update China passenger vehicle weekly sales monitor – September 2nd week This chartbook tracks China passenger vehicle sales on a weekly basis, detailing retail sales trends for various vehicle types, auto makers, and top models, etc. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------------------|---------------------------|- ...

September 23, 2024 02:03 PM GMT M Update Auto Parts | Japan | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

以上言进传播会议纪要或泄露会议内容言进发表诱导他人发表或传播违规言论市场有风险投资需谨慎投资者应自主独立决策一海之言一海通达海通研究小程序新闻财经全时等是研究所指定会议平台 大家早上好非常感谢大家接入我们招文汽车815的系列电话会也非常感谢大家一直以来对我们团队的支持那么今天呢我们打破常规在早上讲一些顺周期行业的观点因为我们之前一直都在早上提示一些具体的标的也是近期呢市场对顺周期的这个行情或者说机会比较的关注 那么汽车作为一个非常大的行业内部确实我们认为也是有一些细分领域对顺周期是有明显的关联的那我们总结下来第一类就是大家更偏传统印象中的顺周期标的就是重卡那么其中业绩或者说盈利情况对销量弹性比较大的以内需为主的标的我们建议关注福建汽车和中国重器 那么另外一类呢就是相对比较间接的就是乘用车行业那毕竟也是一个大额的可选消费品那么显然它跟顺周期整体的一个景气路也有一定的关联那么在乘用车行业链我们去精选以内需为主 同时呢业绩有一定的弹性的整车和零部件我们建议关注的是比亚迪吉利汽车以及零部件中的季风股份华阳集团等少数公司 那我们呢就说一下分两部分说一下这两个的逻辑首先是重卡那么重卡中比较直接的就是大约占据销量20%左右 ...

因为根据我们的情况就整个板块都还是不错的这里面的话就是说很核心的原因我觉得还是产业趋势因为北塔大家都知道北塔比如汽车消费这种北塔相对来说比较平稳然后今年一二季度加热战之后整体三季度环比看也是比较平稳但是有一点就是说背后的主要的驱动逻辑是我们产业趋势产业趋势是啥呢一个是出海 第二个是自主品牌份额的一个提升三季度自主品牌份额已经到了67%附近预估是在67%附近上个季度是多少上个季度是在62.5%就是63%这个附近这个的话就是说自主品牌看足季度这个份额都在往上提所以大家看到整车也好零部件也好再看到板块整体汽车消费没有增长 但是这个份额提升的很快所以这个板块汽车这个板块为什么说它基本面它持续潮流期本质原因还是说产业趋势在上行所以每一次就是说汽车这个板块大家如果在这里面找预期差也好找这些这个择时点也好其实也比较明确就是向上的产业趋势和大家比较悲观预期的这种北伐之间这样一个核心矛盾 所以三季度就典型的体现出来当然二季度整个板块大家看到中报就全面超越去了所以才会有9月份的一个反弹9月份的一个反弹三季度现在看大家的盈利增长趋势还是在强化基本上都是环比在增长了所以大家如果是在国内就A股的各个系分的品类找环比增长同比增长不错的赛 ...