机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/王杰睿 2025 财年业绩高于我们预期 公司公布2025 财年（截至3 月31 日）业绩：收入715.5 亿元，同降1.4%，剔除供应链业务收缩及闭店损 失影响则同增1.6%；经营利润14.25亿元（上年净亏损10.09 亿元），净利润4.05 亿元（上年净亏损 16.05 亿元），超出我们预期，主要受益于同店持续优化以及降本增效成效显著。同时，公司宣布期中 期末派息计划每股0.17HKD，对应当日收盘价股息率约17.5%，超市场预期。 发展趋势 1、同店优化，线上渠道及会员店业务增速较快。分业态看：1）商品销售收入684.8 亿元，同降1.4%， 主因长期亏损门店主动关闭，以及淘菜菜及天猫共享库存业务等供应链业务收缩。公司核心业务同店销 售同增0.6%，主要来自伴随价格竞争力提升，各渠道客单价均稳步增长，其中线上B2C业务收入同增 6%，主要来自笔单件增加带动客单增长，线下渠道收入温和回暖，客流、客单均企稳。2）租金收入 30.3 亿元，同比下滑2.8%，主因尾部门店关闭导致出租面积减少以及部分租户结构调整。3）会员费实 现营收0.36 亿元，同增125%。展店方面，FY25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to a significant increase in copper production and a decrease in costs at the Las Bambas mine in Peru, which is its flagship asset [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - Las Bambas is projected to contribute significantly to the company's copper production, accounting for 81.5%, 89.2%, and 79.8% of total copper production from 2022 to 2024, and 73.4%, 83.8%, and 75.1% of equity copper production [1]. - The company anticipates copper production of 515,000 tons and equity production of 344,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.3%, with 66% of this increase coming from Las Bambas [1]. - Las Bambas is expected to account for 64.1%, 78.6%, and 66.5% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024, and its EBITDA contribution is projected to be 73.1%, 94.6%, and 76.6% during the same period [1]. - The company has set a production guidance of 350,000 to 400,000 tons for 2025, with C1 cost guidance of $1.50 to $1.70 per pound [2]. - C1 costs have already decreased to $1.26 per pound in Q1 2025, below the annual guidance [2]. Group 2: Debt and Community Management - The company's debt has significantly reduced from a peak of $7 billion to $900 million, leading to a decrease in the overall debt ratio to 58.1% by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has developed a management model termed "Las Bambas Heart," which emphasizes sustainable development and reform, aiding in resolving community issues effectively [2][3]. - The ability to manage community issues is considered a critical operational capability for mining companies in South America, and the company is expected to replicate this capability across its other South American mines [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company is undervalued compared to its peers, with a performance elasticity of nearly 30% for every 10% increase in copper prices, assuming a benchmark copper price of $9,500 per ton [3]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of $549 million, $694 million, and $703 million for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of $0.05, $0.06, and $0.06, and PE ratios of 8, 6, and 6 times [3].

Overview - The total revenue of Baidu Group increased slightly compared to last year, with adjusted net profit of 6.5 billion yuan and a stable adjusted net profit margin [1] - In Q1 2025, Baidu Group achieved total revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Baidu's core revenue was 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Baidu Group in Q1 2025 was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1] - Baidu's core business achieved an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 25% [1] Advertising and Marketing - Baidu's core advertising revenue declined by 6%, with 35% of search results generated by AI, an increase of 13 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The online marketing revenue for Baidu's core business was 16 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with managed page revenue accounting for 47%, indicating a continuous optimization of the advertising business structure [1] - Revenue generated for advertisers through agency services increased 30 times year-on-year, accounting for 9% of core online marketing revenue [1] AI and Cloud Services - The transition to search AI is accelerating, enhancing user experience [1] - Intelligent cloud services grew by 42% year-on-year, with non-GAAP operating profit remaining positive [1] - Intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with a sustained positive non-GAAP operating profit margin [1] - Revenue related to GenAI and foundational models experienced triple-digit year-on-year growth, with significant demand for AI cloud services [1] Technological Empowerment and Ecosystem Expansion - The Q1 upgrade of the Qianfan platform promotes the development of native AI applications, with the no-code tool MIAODA launched to lower development barriers [2] - Apollo Go's international expansion has made substantial progress, maintaining its position as a leader in domestic autonomous driving services, providing over 1.4 million rides in Q1, a 75% year-on-year increase [2] - Apollo Go has now covered 15 cities, following its entry into Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with a cumulative service of over 11 million rides [2] Investment Outlook - The potential impact of AI technology on search advertising and intelligent cloud business is viewed positively [2] - Considering the macroeconomic pressure on advertising revenue and ongoing investment in Gen-AI research, adjusted net profit is expected to reach 24.1 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan, and 31.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2]

Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations primarily due to strong growth in AI cloud revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 6.5 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 19.9%, which is a decline of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to pressure on the relatively high-margin advertising business [1] - The proportion of AI cloud revenue in Baidu's core income increased by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 26.1%, while advertising revenue's share decreased by 8.7 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year to 25.5 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected AI cloud revenue [1] - Advertising revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year to 16 billion yuan, impacted by moderate demand from advertisers and the effects of AI search transformation [1] - Non-advertising revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year to 9.5 billion yuan, with AI cloud revenue growing by 42% year-on-year to 6.7 billion yuan [1] AI Transformation and User Engagement - In April, 35% of Baidu's search results included AI-generated content, up from 22% in January, indicating a proactive approach to AI transformation in search [2] - Baidu's app reached 724 million monthly active users in March, a year-on-year increase of 7%, suggesting improved user experience [2] - The "Agent" feature is becoming a significant part of Baidu's advertising business, with related revenue growing 30 times year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 9% of core advertising revenue [2] Global Expansion and Order Growth - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" service has expanded internationally, now operating in 15 cities with over 1,000 deployed vehicles, and saw a 75% year-on-year increase in order volume to 1.4 million in Q1 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 6.8%, 5.7%, and 3.6% respectively, primarily due to downward revisions in high-margin advertising revenue expectations [3] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at $102.2, down from a previous $110.9, and HK$99.5, down from HK$108.3 [3]

机构：中金公司 高效获客及热点把握推动营销费用同降，用户规模及活跃度进一步提升。 公司1Q25 销售费用同降7.5%，我们认为主要由于一季度内有春节及多个社会/娱乐热点话题推动获取自 然流量，公司结合环境动态调整渠道花费，对销售费用做到较好控制。在用户端实际表现来看，25 年3 月MAU 为5.91 亿（同比增长0.5%/环比增长0.2%），DAU 为2.61 亿（同比增长2.4%/环比增长0.4%）。 AI 战略立体化，关注智搜发展。公司AI 布局主要围绕：1）AI 搜索：核心关注智搜产品在新闻热点、 文娱资讯方面的能力，今年3 月智搜月活跃用户突破3,000 万人，4 月已向全量用户开放；2）AI 社交互 动（平台内已配置有评论罗伯特、吃瓜罗伯特以活跃社区氛围）；3）内容创作；4）推荐（结合大模型 能力重点投入加强推荐、搜索体系的建设）及商业广告（公司于业绩会表示今年将进一步结合AI 技术 重点提升体验和效率，以提升效果广告预算获取能力。公司表示当前AI 应用在信息流竞价广告的部分 领域测试里可推动CTR 提升10%，对eCPM 提升为个位数）等几个方向。 盈利预测与估值 研究员：张雪晴/白洋/余歆瑶/肖 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported FY2025 total revenue of $69.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.384 billion, up 37.0% [1] - For Q4 FY2025, the company achieved revenue of $16.984 billion, a 22.8% increase year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell to $90 million, a decline of 63.7% due to a $118 million loss related to derivative financial liabilities [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit for Q4 FY2025 was $278 million, a 25.1% increase year-on-year, aligning with expectations, and the non-HKFRS net profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% [1] Industry Trends - The AI PC segment exceeded sales targets in its first year, with the company’s IDG revenue growing 13% to $11.81 billion [2] - According to IDC, global personal PC shipments increased by 4.9% in Q1 2025, with Lenovo's sales growing by 10.8%, capturing a market share of 24.1% [2] - Lenovo's AI PC sales surpassed FY2025 targets, ranking first globally in the Windows AI PC category, and achieving a 16% market share in China's notebook sales for Q4 FY2025 [2] - Non-PC business revenue accounted for 49% of total revenue in Q4 FY2025, with smartphone and tablet shipments increasing by 6% and 18% respectively [2] - The ISG segment achieved revenue of $4.12 billion in Q4 FY2025, a 63% year-on-year increase, with cloud infrastructure revenue growing by 92% [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates synchronized expansion in domestic and international intelligent computing and traditional computing demands, with the ISG segment expected to achieve sustainable high growth through dual engines of cloud and enterprise infrastructure [3] - Adjustments to FY2026/27 non-HKFRS net profit estimates have been made, with a decrease of 2.6% and 7.8% to $1.649 billion and $1.913 billion respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to 9.3x and 8.1x FY2026/27 P/E ratios, with a target price of HKD 13.40, reflecting a 40% upside potential [3]

Group 1 - The company focuses on a "green health strategy" and is actively exploring new store formats, with plans to open its first light drink and light food store in Shenzhen by March 2025 [1] - The company will optimize existing stores and emphasize the introduction of health products, with a net reduction of 121 direct stores in 2024 and a focus on high-line markets [1] - The company is expanding its overseas business and steadily developing its bottled beverage segment, with bottled beverage revenue reaching 293 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] Group 2 - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 5.2 billion, 5.3 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 1.7%, and 3.5% respectively [2] - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be -13 million, 500,000, and 5.6 million yuan, with significant year-on-year growth of 86%, 104%, and 980% respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, considering the ongoing exploration of new models and the potential for future profitability [2]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's stock price is currently fluctuating around 54.45 HKD, with technical indicators showing mixed signals [1] - As of 9:55 AM, Xiaomi's stock price was at 54.55 HKD, a slight increase of 0.18%, with resistance at 56 HKD and support at 50.4 HKD [1] - The MACD and Ichimoku indicators are signaling a buy, while the RSI is at 66, nearing the overbought zone, and the Williams indicator shows a sell warning [1] Group 2 - On May 19, when Xiaomi's stock rose by 4.01%, related derivatives performed strongly, with the Morgan Stanley call option (14642) surging by 22% [3] - UBS bull certificates (66801) and call options (14991) increased by 19% and 18% respectively, while Morgan Stanley bull certificates (67102) also rose by 18% [3] - This data highlights the leverage effect of derivatives in high volatility markets, particularly call options [3] Group 3 - For investors optimistic about Xiaomi breaking the 56 HKD resistance, several high-leverage products are available, including UBS call options (14991) with a leverage of 4.8 times [5] - HSBC call options (15392) follow closely with a leverage of 4.7 times, while Morgan Stanley bull certificates (55982) offer a leverage of 6.7 times with an attractive premium level [5] - Morgan Stanley bull certificates (55750) have a lower recovery price of 46 HKD but provide a leverage of 5.6 times, suitable for aggressive investors [5] Group 4 - For bearish expectations, HSBC put options (14333) and Morgan Stanley put options (14322) offer leverage of 2.3 times and 2.4 times respectively, both with a strike price of 46.45 HKD [8] - Among bear certificates, UBS bear certificates (56421) provide a leverage of 8.8 times with a recovery price of 61 HKD, while Societe Generale bear certificates (56288) offer 9.4 times leverage with a recovery price of 60.5 HKD, suitable for short-term trading [8] Group 5 - Investors can choose based on their risk preferences: conservative investors may consider out-of-the-money call options, balanced investors may opt for medium-leverage bull certificates, and aggressive investors may select high-leverage bear certificates for short-term trades [11] - Regardless of market position, strict position control and clear stop-loss points are recommended [11]

Group 1 - The Japanese government and the United States believe that reaching an agreement quickly would be beneficial for both parties [1] - Japan's chief negotiator, Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa, met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in Washington, D.C. to discuss tariff measures [1]