[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨工商银行（601398.SH） [Table_Title] 大行工匠，基业长青 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们重点推荐工商银行，看好基本面稳健性和长期配置价值。1）资产负债表映射实体，伴随经 济结构转型，市占率进入上行周期。经济结构转型、新旧动能转换背景下，金融总量降速，银 行转向高质量发展。2）利率周期视角下，净息差筑底、核心营收反转。近七年的降息周期中， 银行业净息差创历史新低。目前利率周期低位运行，但下行空间受到约束，预计 2026 年利息 净收入将实现反转，大型银行的核心营收（利息及手续费）增速转正。3）资产质量韧性穿越地 产周期，风险指标波动低。目前 A/H 股 2026 年预期股息率 4.39%、5.37%。重点推荐，给予 "买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 SFC：BUT916 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 SAC：S04 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market benchmarks [2][13]. Core Views - The company is expected to confirm a turnaround in its performance, with projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 22 million to 32 million yuan, compared to a loss of 80.71 million yuan in the previous year [3][10]. - The company is entering a new phase of growth elasticity, driven by the ramp-up of its rubidium and cesium salt project and the expansion of sales channels [3][6]. - The report highlights that the company has successfully entered the solid-state battery production equipment sector, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and profitability [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with projections of 2.04 billion yuan in 2025, 4.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.04 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 35.01%, 108.64%, and 42.12% respectively [15][16]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 31.86 million yuan, with substantial growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 748.01 million yuan in 2026 and 1.40 billion yuan in 2027 [15][16]. Business Segments - The lithium battery equipment segment is expected to benefit from renewed demand in the lithium industry and the development of solid-state batteries, leading to a significant increase in orders and cash flow [10][11]. - The organic silicon equipment and products segment is characterized by strong stability in profitability, with ongoing innovations and a comprehensive product line supporting its market leadership [10][11]. - The rubidium and cesium salt project is projected to enhance the company's performance, with the commencement of production expected to drive structural growth in revenue [11][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong technological barrier in the rubidium and cesium salt industry, with its proprietary low-temperature sulfuric acid lithium extraction technology providing a competitive edge [12][13]. - Strategic partnerships with companies like Tianen Lithium Industry are expected to enhance the stability of the supply chain for high-purity rubidium and cesium salts, further expanding sales opportunities [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, with an expected net profit of 2.02 billion to 2.35 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.05% to 40.83% [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 is primarily driven by strong results in its asset management business, despite a decline in its core operations [2][15]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.069 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.589 billion yuan, indicating that total operating costs exceeded revenues [4][5]. - The total assets under management reached 24.122 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, highlighting the significant contribution of asset management to the company's profitability [8]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.02 billion and 2.35 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.05% to 40.83% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The company’s investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was 562 million yuan, with fair value changes contributing 1.251 billion yuan, totaling over 1.8 billion yuan in investment-related income [5]. - The company holds trading financial assets worth 10.362 billion yuan, primarily in wealth management products, and other financial assets totaling 10.245 billion yuan, including hedge funds and private equity investments [6][8]. Core Business Performance - The iHealth product line, which includes smart medical devices, has seen a significant decline in revenue, with a 50% drop in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [10][11]. - The total revenue from iHealth products for the first three quarters of 2025 was reported at 601 million yuan, reflecting a 49% year-on-year decrease [11][12]. Market Position - The company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.89, indicating that it is trading below its book value, which may attract investors looking for undervalued assets [14]. - The company has substantial cash-like assets totaling 27.6 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings of only 2.334 billion yuan, suggesting a strong liquidity position [14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant downgrade in the investment outlook for the company, with a projected net profit drop of 88.92% to 92.61% for 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The company's photovoltaic business has been severely impacted by new U.S. tariffs, leading to a drastic reduction in profit expectations [4][10]. - The company has decided to exit the renewable energy sector and refocus on its core materials business, which has shown consistent growth [12][14]. - The new materials segment, particularly high-performance copper-based alloys, is positioned to benefit from emerging technology trends, despite the challenges faced in the photovoltaic market [18][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of only 100 to 150 million yuan for 2025, a stark decline from 1.354 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - A total asset impairment provision of 1.025 billion yuan has been made, significantly affecting the company's profitability [9][10]. Market Challenges - U.S. tariffs of up to 307.78% on photovoltaic products exported from Vietnam have blocked the company's access to the U.S. market [4]. - The new U.S. legislation requires companies controlled by Chinese citizens to reduce their ownership stake to below 25% to qualify for federal subsidies, which the company does not meet [6][7]. Strategic Shift - The company plans to divest its U.S. photovoltaic projects and concentrate on its new materials business, which accounted for 74.62% of revenue in 2024 [14][16]. - The new materials business has shown a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20% from 2019 to 2024, with revenue expected to reach 139.2 billion yuan in 2024 [20][21]. Future Outlook - The global demand for advanced materials is expected to rise due to trends in AI, electric vehicles, and next-generation technologies, which the company aims to capitalize on [22][23]. - The company is already investing in new production lines for liquid cooling materials and collaborating with industry leaders to develop next-generation conductive materials [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 850 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1% to 60.7%, with a median estimate of 950 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of general aviation and eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) to drive growth, supported by favorable government policies and market conditions [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the automotive lightweight metal parts business and the robust order book in the general aviation aircraft manufacturing sector [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 16,264 million yuan in 2024 to 19,879 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to increase from 653 million yuan in 2024 to 1,429 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 50.6% in 2025 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.31 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 50 times in 2024 to 23 times in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is strategically positioned as a leader in the low-altitude economy, with a focus on expanding its product matrix through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Volocopter, which enhances its eVTOL offerings [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government support for the low-altitude economy, particularly with the new Civil Aviation Law set to take effect in July 2026, which encourages innovation and development in the general aviation sector [7]. - The company is actively developing new aircraft models and enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing demand in both the general aviation and eVTOL markets [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant profit increase in 2025, with net profit projected to grow by 30.00% to 62.50% year-on-year, and non-recurring net profit expected to increase by 6.46% to 54.52% [3][8] - The company is leveraging technology to drive business growth, with a focus on smart technology to enhance operational efficiency across various business segments [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a main revenue of RMB 14,852 million for 2025, representing a growth rate of 26.0% [7] - The expected EBITDA for 2025 is RMB 485 million, with a significant increase in net profit to RMB 280 million, reflecting a growth rate of 36.2% [7] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.42, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.6 times [5][7] Business Strategy - The company is building a comprehensive talent supply chain solution through its "He Wa" platform, which is expected to show continued growth in various business metrics [8] - The company has developed industry-leading algorithms and data foundations, along with AI tools and products, to enhance efficiency [8] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 6,047.86 million and a three-month average trading volume of RMB 172.73 million [3] - The major shareholder, Huolguosikangda Venture Capital Co., Ltd., holds a 29.42% stake in the company [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic motorcycle brand with over 30 years of experience in the motorcycle industry, focusing on its high-end self-owned brand "Wuji," which has shown significant growth [4][16]. - The overseas market for large-displacement motorcycles presents substantial growth potential, with the company currently holding a small market share in key regions [4][6]. - The integration of Zongshen as the controlling shareholder is expected to enhance governance and operational efficiency, potentially leading to synergistic benefits [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has a total market capitalization of 31,829.90 million yuan and a 52-week price range of 16.29 to 9.63 yuan, with a 52-week increase of 60.96% [4]. - The company has shifted its focus back to its core motorcycle business and has seen a significant increase in revenue from its self-owned brand Wuji, which achieved 1.98 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [4][19]. Industry Analysis - The global motorcycle market is projected to grow, with an expected sales volume of 56 million units in 2024, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [34]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in Europe and Latin America, where it has begun to establish a presence [4][53]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 19.39 billion yuan, 22.26 billion yuan, and 24.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.73 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.65 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company's gross profit margin has been steadily increasing, with a gross margin of 18.9% in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [30]. Strategic Developments - The integration with Zongshen is expected to improve governance and operational efficiency, with a projected increase in the dividend payout ratio to 73% by 2024 [4][6]. - The company has been expanding its overseas channels, with a significant increase in the number of international stores, which grew by 1,086 since 2020 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company, targeting a price of 25.59 CNY [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is implementing an AI-driven strategy, leveraging a comprehensive technology layout of "cloud-network-edge-terminal-core" and a domestic solution of "computing power + platform + algorithm + application" to lead the digital transformation in the power sector [2]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the digital grid construction, with expected revenues of 6.619 billion CNY, 7.556 billion CNY, and 8.857 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside EPS of 0.19 CNY, 0.22 CNY, and 0.27 CNY for the same years [10][19]. - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness in the vertical field of electricity through the integration of AI and digital solutions, focusing on digital grid, enterprise digitalization, and digital infrastructure [10][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline by 25.5% in 2023, followed by a significant recovery with growth rates of 43.8% in 2024, 8.7% in 2025, 14.2% in 2026, and 17.2% in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease by 42.2% in 2023, then increase by 51.1% in 2024, followed by growth rates of 4.0%, 19.3%, and 20.8% in the subsequent years [4]. - The company’s net asset return rate is forecasted to improve from 5.1% in 2023 to 6.7% in 2027 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The digital grid segment is expected to generate revenues of 2.389 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 42%, and is projected to reach 3.883 billion CNY by 2027 [15]. - The enterprise digitalization segment is anticipated to see revenues of 2.035 billion CNY in 2024, growing at a rate of 7% [13]. - The digital infrastructure segment is forecasted to achieve revenues of 1.540 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 114% [14]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 813.61 billion CNY based on a PE of 115 for 2026 [19][25]. - The company is compared with peers, with an average PE of 99 for similar companies in 2026, indicating a premium valuation due to its unique capabilities in the digital power sector [19][20]. - The PS valuation method suggests a reasonable valuation of 816.06 billion CNY, based on a PS of 10.80 for 2026 [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 to 1.85 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.0% to 70.6% [1] - The electric two-wheeler market share has increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, ranking the company fourth in the industry [2] - The company plans to enhance its service robot business, particularly focusing on lawn mowers, which are expected to show rapid growth [3] - The company is actively responding to changes in EU policies regarding lawn mowers, emphasizing its core competitiveness and innovation [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.76 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.21X, 15.98X, and 12.61X [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 598 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.5% [6] - The gross margin is projected to increase from 25.2% in 2023 to 31.4% by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.0% in 2023 to 24.5% in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, with a projected net profit of 13.5 to 20 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 142.10% to 162.37% [4][5] - The company is focusing on expanding its core business areas, including functional coatings and electronic materials, while also accelerating its layout in marine engineering coatings and high-performance specialty coatings [4][5] - The marine anti-corrosion coatings market is anticipated to have significant growth potential due to high entry barriers and stringent performance testing requirements [4] Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve approximately 480 million yuan in revenue for 2025, with a net profit turning positive [4][5] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -7.04%, 30.25%, and 37.54%, respectively [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.07 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively [12] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 353.40, 136.29, and 90.52, respectively [12]