中金公司 电车先锋半月谈 摘要 Q&A 请介绍比亚迪最新的智能化战略发布会及其市场反应。 本周比亚迪如期召开了智能化战略发布会，市场对该发布会已有充分预期。发 布会主要关注车型数量、上市节奏和定价。公司策略是快速上车，全系标配超 出市场预期。具体来看，公司具备数据研发资源和产业化能力优势，DeepSeek • 比亚迪发布 21 款车型，预计二季度快速上量，10 万元以上车型全部标配 定价，25 年智驾版与 24 年非智驾版基本无价差，预计 25-26 年高速 NOA 核心硬件方案销售占比达 60%-80%，规模效应有望释放盈利弹性，维持盈 利预测，未来 2-3 年有望保持 20%-30%盈利增速。 • 一月狭义乘用车零售同比下降 12%，受春节、购车潮透支及补贴政策切换 影响，但出口达 38 万辆。预计二月零售仍有压力，三月环比改善，以旧换 新政策有望使 25 年零售销量实现正增长，维持 25 年新能源乘用车销量增 长 25%-30%的判断。 • 柴油发电机行业被康明斯等四家垄断，海外资本开支上行导致产能紧张， 预计供不应求将强化，一季度招标价格已上涨 10%-15%。科泰电源等企业 与海外发动机企业合作稳定 ...

中金公司 风光公用半月谈 摘要 Q&A 2025 年电力板块的整体情况如何，面临哪些挑战和机遇？ 2025 年电力板块的热度相对较低，主要由于去年年底交易出来的 2025 年度交 易电价回落引发了市场担忧。此外，AI 等投资主题吸引了大量资金流入。然而， 我们认为电力板块在面临挑战的同时也存在机遇。绿电运营商受到政策重点扶 • 新能源入市电价政策要求所有新能源电量进入市场交易，通过价格信号促 进理性投资，并建立新能源可持续发展价格结算机制，稳定收益预期，提 振行业投资信心。该政策对 2025 年 6 月 1 日前存量项目友好，新项目需全 部参与市场，差价由工商业用户分摊。 • 为实现十四五能耗目标，国内政策加码敦促下游用户提高绿电消费，如加 速核发绿证、完善碳交易工具。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）过渡期已启 动，将于 2026 年正式征收，内外压力促使高耗能企业增加绿电使用，提高 消纳支付能力。 • 建议关注破净且估值较低的港股绿电运营商，特别是风电占比较多的龙头 企业，以及 A 股三北地区风电竞争优势企业。新能源政策有望托底价格， 使这些企业最早受益。同时，关注福建世丰赛道，其资产质量优质且具备 较高投资 ...

Atoms & Photons February 7, 2025 04:26 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America As GenAI moves deeper into the knowledge economy (bits & bytes) investors should prepare for the eventual move into the physical economy (atoms & photons). It's already begun, and the TAM could eventually exceed global GDP. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Our recently published Humanoid 100 list and continuin ...

Investment Rating - The report places BYD on a Positive Catalyst Watch with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target of HK$475.00 for December 2025 [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights two major trends for 2025: the rising adoption of advanced autonomous driving (AD) solutions and the expansion of Chinese brands in overseas markets, particularly as foreign competitors face challenges from US tariffs [2][21]. - BYD's earnings estimates for 2025 are approximately 10% above consensus, indicating strong growth potential [2][21]. - The report anticipates that BYD's global deliveries will reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with around 1.5 million units coming from overseas markets, leading to an increase in global market share from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026 [21][22]. Summary by Sections Advanced Autonomous Driving (AD) Solutions - BYD is expected to showcase its latest navigation on autopilot (NOA) solutions, which will significantly reduce the bill of materials (BOM) costs for both city and highway NOA features [5][8]. - The BOM for city NOA is projected to decrease from approximately Rmb20,000 in 2024 to Rmb10,000-15,000 in 2025, while highway NOA costs are expected to drop from Rmb4,000-5,000 to around Rmb3,000 [7][8]. Overseas Market Expansion - BYD plans to complete assembly plants in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary by the end of 2025, which will enhance its production capacity and help mitigate tariff impacts through localization [5][21]. - The report forecasts that Chinese brands, including BYD, could double their overseas market share to approximately 12% by 2030 [5][21]. Financial Projections - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for BYD, estimating a total equity value of Rmb1,284,233 million, translating to a price of HK$475 [15][16]. - Key assumptions include a 13x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the EV battery segment and a 1.4x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NEV manufacturing, reflecting BYD's potential for a re-rating driven by global expansion [15][22].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 造纸 1H25 展望 & 太阳纸业深度 • 2025 年造纸行业新增产能投放接近尾声，但供需面难现趋势性大行情。地 产资金流入减少，制造业贷款增加，地方政府鼓励投产，多重因素驱动企 业扩产，需警惕新增产能带来的供给压力。 2025 年造纸行业整体供需面呈现宽松平衡状态。文化纸的新增产能较少，而特 种纸和白卡纸的新增产能较多，导致这些板块存在过剩风险。尽管行业盈利处 于历史低点，许多企业仍在投产，这主要是由于宏观资金链的变化和企业心态 因素。随着地产吸纳资金减少，制造业吸纳贷款占比增加，使得企业能够通过 银行贷款或转债定增等形式获得资金进行扩产。此外，地方政府鼓励投产并提 供优惠条件，也促使企业继续扩展。预计 2025 年的新增产能将逐渐进入尾声， 摘要 Q&A • 2025 年上半年造纸行业市场预期乐观，阔叶浆外盘价格上涨，国内纸企具 备提价底气，龙头企业库存成本下降，业绩有望环比改善，建议逢低吸纳。 但需关注三月份会议后全年走势及下半年新增产能投放压力。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投 ...

该政策对保险行业有何影响？ 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 险资投资黄金业务试点政策解读 20240208 摘要 • 监管政策放宽允许保险资金投资黄金，旨在缓解当前保险公司面临的资产 配置压力，并为未来拓宽其他资产类别积累经验，是对险资可投资资产类 别的重要尝试。 Q&A 保险资金投资黄金业务试点政策的背景和主要内容是什么？ 2025 年 2 月 7 日，国家金融监管总局发布了关于开展保险资金投资黄金业务试 点的通知。该通知明确了保险资金投资黄金的范围，并确定了首批试点公司， 包括十家大型险企，如人保财险、中国人寿、太平人寿、中国信保、平安财险、 平安人寿、太保财险、太保寿险、泰康人寿和新华人寿。这些公司基本囊括了 国内财险和寿险业内的头部机构。此外，通知要求保险公司投资黄金的账面余 额不得超过公司上季末总资产的 1%，单一交易对手租借规模不得超过试点保险 公司持有的黄金现货合约的 20%。此外，还提出了一些监督管理事项，以控制 保险资金投资黄金的风险。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu987 ...

中金公司 2025 动力煤&炼焦煤观点更新 20240208 摘要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Q&A 2025 年动力煤和焦煤市场的总体判断是什么？ 在过去四年中，动力煤和焦煤市场表现相当不错。尽管供需紧张局面逐步缓和， 平均价格也在有序下行，但优质公司的盈利仍然非常高，ROE 维持在 10%以上没 有太大问题。2024 年，煤炭板块整体表现稳健，但受市场风格切换影响，其股 票涨跌与自身关系不大。2024 年全年涨幅约为 8.6%，低于沪深 300 的 14.8%。 尽管预计 2025 年均价同比下降 10%左右，但由于这些公司的 ROE 高且杠杆率低， 其基本面仍然优于许多工业企业。在 A 股上市的二十几个板块中，煤炭板块基 • 2024 年煤炭板块涨幅低于沪深 300，但基本面仍优于多数工业企业，预计 2025 年煤价虽同比下降 10%，但高 ROE 和低杠杆使其配置价值较高，在 A 股上市板块中排名前五。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：sh ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to TCL Technology with a target price of Rmb4.00, which corresponds to 1.3 times the expected price-to-book ratio for 2025, lower than its historical average by 0.7 standard deviations [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic demand for large panels is expected to benefit from government subsidy policies, leading to a potential improvement in profits in the short term [1]. - The company anticipates that the price of large-size LCD panels will continue to show a slight upward trend due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced supply from domestic manufacturers [2]. - Profit margins are expected to improve due to higher utilization rates, rising prices, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain maturity and local material substitution [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The company reported a significant decline in TV demand in the first three quarters of 2024, but a noticeable improvement in demand is expected in the fourth quarter due to government consumption subsidy policies [1]. - Large-size panel production is nearing full capacity, while small-size LCD utilization remains above 80%, and OLED production is at full capacity [1]. Price Trends - The company believes that the price of large-size LCD panels has started to recover since December, driven by government subsidies and limited supply increases since 2022 [2]. Profitability Outlook - The anticipated improvement in profit margins is attributed to increased utilization rates, price increases, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain efficiencies [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a gradual increase from Rmb174.446 million in 2023 to Rmb212.718 million by 2028, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb2.215 million in 2023 to Rmb7.959 million in 2028 [7].

更多一手调研纪要录音和海外投行报告加V: shuinu9870 快评 宇信科技 2025 瑞银大中华研讨会 2025年展望 公司参加了瑞银2025大中华研讨会,对于2025年展望,公司表示:1)预 计25年银行IT投入与24年相比保持平稳;2)业务方面,仍是以信创为主 导,或较24年有所回暖。并购整合/Al/出海可能是新的增长机会;3)策略方 面,将继续提升效率,毛利修复仍是主线。公司将继续聚焦资产1万亿以上 的大型银行,围绕客户的项目持续性、付款能力等进行选择;4)人员方 面,25年人数或继续收缩,同时将调整结构,在AI、海外业务及个贷不良业 务增加投入。 聚焦Al+应用 公司表示:1)公司仍将坚持"AI+"战略,聚焦应用;2)产品形式方面,目 前提供软件产品、以及一体机。一体机收费模式为购买机器的一次性收 费+后续每年设备更新维护收费;3)应用场景方面,目前以营销产品为主, 帮助银行获客并提升GMV。由于银行的各家分行都有大量沉睡客户,可运 用一体机来了解客户画像,进行分析并激活唤醒客户(电话和移动端触 达)。有分行在采用营销一体机后KPl大幅提升;此外,运用AI来提升个贷 不良化解效率有较大的发展空间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the real estate industry with a 12-month target price of Rmb9.80, while the current stock price is Rmb10.09 [5][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the profit margin for the company is expected to recover in Q4 2024 compared to the first three quarters, with a gross margin of 9.95% for the first nine months of 2024. However, the overall gross margin for the year is projected to decline year-on-year [2]. - The company anticipates that projects acquired after 2022 will start to settle, leading to a gradual increase in gross margins, with sales gross margins of approximately 20% for projects acquired in 2022 and below 20% for those acquired in 2023 [2]. - The sales activity in first-tier and core second-tier cities remains strong, but a seasonal decline is expected in January and February. There is no significant rebound in real estate sales in non-core second-tier and lower-tier cities for the last quarter of 2024 [3]. - The land market is expected to maintain high premium rates as developers focus on core cities and regions, with the company planning to accelerate turnover and increase the proportion of improvement-oriented products in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Valuation - The company is currently trading at 0.9x the estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025, compared to the average of 0.55x for A-share real estate companies covered by UBS [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a decline from Rmb183.003 billion in 2022 to Rmb170.389 billion in 2024E, with a further drop to Rmb155.020 billion in 2025E [6]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2024E, with net profit projected to fall from Rmb3.173 billion in 2022 to Rmb3.539 billion in 2024E [6]. - The report forecasts a diluted earnings per share of Rmb0.39 for 2024E, with a slight recovery to Rmb0.38 in 2025E [6]. Market Sentiment - The report reflects a cautious sentiment regarding the company's future performance, with a score of 2 indicating a potential deterioration in industry structure over the next six months, while the regulatory environment is rated at 4, suggesting improvement [12].