6 January 2025 | 7:01PM JST Asia Technology Outlook 2025 Three focus points, five investment themes; highlighting 25 Buy names Three focus points and five investment themes for 2025: In this report, we outline the key focus points for the Asia technology sector this year and our preferred stocks. Similar to 2024, for 2025 we focus on: (1) US-China trade friction and geopolitics, (2) the strength of cyclical recovery after inventory adjustments, and (3) the next stage of AI evolution. In early 2025, we expec ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the banking sector in China due to rising mortgage rates and ongoing challenges in the real estate market [1][9]. Core Insights - Chinese banks have raised new mortgage costs for the first time in three years, driven by a prolonged downturn in the real estate market and slowing economic growth [1][10]. - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in 42 major cities increased slightly from a historical low of 3.05% to 3.08%, marking the first rise since October 2021 [2][9]. - Despite recent sales recovery signs following stimulus measures, housing prices continue to decline, indicating persistent market challenges [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to lower outstanding mortgage rates, aiming to reduce interest expenses for borrowers by approximately 206 billion USD annually [5][10]. - A significant number of cities have raised mortgage rates, with Wuhan, Changsha, and Wenzhou seeing the largest increases of 20 basis points [5][12]. - The banking sector is facing record low net interest margins, with a current level of 1.53%, which is below the threshold needed for reasonable profitability [7][10]. - Regulatory bodies are likely to guide banks to uniformly increase new mortgage rates to create a buffer for potential larger rate cuts in the future [11][12]. Summary by Sections - **Mortgage Rate Changes**: The report highlights the first increase in mortgage rates in three years, with specific data showing a rise from 3.05% to 3.08% in major cities [2][5]. - **Economic Context**: The ongoing downturn in the real estate market and its impact on the broader economy is emphasized, with sales showing signs of recovery but prices still falling [3][4]. - **Banking Sector Challenges**: The report discusses the challenges faced by banks, including low profitability and rising non-performing loans, with total profits only increasing by 0.5% in the first three quarters [7][10]. - **Regulatory Actions**: The report notes that regulatory measures are being taken to stabilize the banking sector, including potential guidance for uniform rate increases [11][12].

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a strong potential for growth in the AI robotics sector, particularly in Asia, with significant advancements expected in the coming decades [10] Core Viewpoints - The next wave of AI is physical AI, with robotics being a key focus, especially in Asia [2] - Asian tech companies have a unique advantage in hardware, which positions them well to lead in the development of AI-powered robotics [3][8] - Government support and subsidies in China are driving advancements in robotics, making the region a leader in this field [4] - Despite skepticism, the rise of AI robotics is inevitable, and Asia is likely to be at the forefront of this development [7][9] Industry Overview - Asian tech leaders are moving beyond chatbots and software, focusing on integrating AI into physical robotics [2] - The region has a historical strength in hardware, which complements the development of AI robotics [3] - China, Japan, and South Korea dominate the robotics patent landscape, with China holding 78% of all robotics patents over the past 20 years [10] Market Applications - AI robotics is being applied in various sectors, including food preparation, cultural preservation, and industrial automation [5] - Japan is expected to lead in deploying automation technologies due to its aging population and shrinking workforce [10] - Asian companies are adept at finding practical market applications for AI technologies, as seen in Sony's success with consumer electronics and robotics [11] Future Projections - By 2035, there will be 1.3 billion AI robots globally, increasing to 4 billion by 2050, with a significant portion of this growth coming from Asia [10] - The integration of AI into robotics is seen as a catalyst for practical and real-world applications, moving beyond the hype of chatbots [11] Regional Advantages - Asia's tech ecosystem, particularly in China, benefits from government support and subsidies, which are accelerating advancements in robotics [4] - The region's historical expertise in hardware and its ability to adapt and innovate with AI technologies give it a competitive edge in the global robotics market [3][8][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant increase in tariffs on solar products imported from Southeast Asia, with rates reaching as high as 271% [1][4]. Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that solar products imported from Southeast Asia are being sold at unfairly low prices, leading to the imposition of high tariffs to protect domestic manufacturers [1][2]. - The investigation was initiated by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, representing companies like First Solar Inc. and Hanwha Qcells USA Inc., highlighting ongoing efforts to combat foreign competition [2][3]. - The preliminary tariffs are seen as a step towards addressing long-standing unfair trade practices and protecting U.S. solar manufacturing investments [3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Details - Tariffs on imports from Cambodia will face a cash deposit rate of 117.12%, while Malaysia's rates range from 17.84% to 81.24% depending on the supplier [4]. - Vietnamese exporters will face cash deposit rates between 53.19% and 56.4%, with some facing a rate of 271.28% [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, First Solar's stock rose by 3.8%, while JinkoSolar's American Depositary Receipts fell by 2.9%, indicating mixed market reactions to the tariff news [3]. Future Outlook - The final rulings from the trade investigations are expected to be announced in April next year, with the possibility of adjustments to the preliminary tariff rates [5].

Array Technologies: Basics 阅读研究报告： Array Technologies Equity Research Alessio Mastrandrea 团队: 能源 BI Senior Associate Analyst Rob Barnett 团队: 能源 BI Senior Analyst Array Profit Gains Even as Sales Set to Decline, Prices Retreat (彭博⾏业研究) -- PV tracker manufacturer Array Technologies is poised to see sales fall more than 50% to about $910 million in 2024 as declining selling prices hamstring solar-component peers. Nevertheless, gross margin could rise to more than 30%, lifted by tax credits for domestic product ...

China Solar Nears Turning Point Chia Chen 团队: 能源 BI Senior Associate Analyst Henik Fung 团队: 能源 BI资深⾏业分析师 China Solar Panel Price War Could End With Revenue Set to Surge (彭博⾏业研究) -- The price war among Chinese manufacturers of solar panels could be about to end after consolidation and capex cuts. Average revenue growth in the sector could hit 25% in 2025, following this year's cyclical bottom, with large firms such as Longi likely to gain the most. (11/03/24) 1. Industry Calls for Floor Price to End Price Wa ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fuyao Glass Industry Group is "Equal-weight" with a price target of HK$40.00, indicating a potential downside of 29% from the current price of HK$56.60 as of October 18, 2024 [2][22]. Core Insights - Capacity utilization is expected to remain strong, with management anticipating an increase in utilization rate from approximately 85% in Q3 to higher levels in Q4 due to robust auto production in China and market share gains overseas [1][2]. - There is an upside risk to the gross margin target of 37-38%, with expectations that it could approach 40% in some quarters due to increased utilization, favorable product mix, and declining input costs, particularly soda ash prices [1][2]. - Fuyao aims to increase its market share in the US and Europe to 40% and 30% respectively, driven by new capacity additions and improved competitiveness against foreign players [2][3]. - The company is accelerating capacity construction to meet growing demand, with new capacity in the US expected to be completed by the end of the year and additional plants in Fujian and Anhui scheduled for completion by the end of 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, net revenue is projected at Rmb33,161 million, with EBITDA expected to be Rmb8,292 million [2]. - EPS is forecasted to increase from Rmb2.16 in 2023 to Rmb2.80 in 2024, and further to Rmb3.16 in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently Rmb148,765 million, with an EV of Rmb150,245 million [2]. Market Position - Fuyao Glass Industry Group is positioned to gain significant market share in the automotive glass sector, with management highlighting the flexibility of production lines to increase output by adding shifts [1][2]. - The company has no immediate plans to establish production facilities in Europe, focusing instead on enhancing its existing operations in the US and China [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [34][35]. Core Insights - The penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the passenger vehicle market reached 53.9%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous week [6][27]. - Weekly insurance registrations for passenger vehicles were 499,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 16.1% week-over-week [6][27]. - Weekly insurance registrations for new energy vehicles were 269,000 units, down 9.1% from the previous week [6][27]. - The average dealer discount for NEVs was 7.28% as of October 22, compared to 7.17% on October 15 [22][23]. - The average discount for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles was 21.40% as of October 22, slightly down from 21.47% [23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The NEV market is experiencing significant growth, with a 55% increase in volume for Tesla China, 23% for AITO, and 29% for Xiaomi week-over-week [8][9]. - BYD Group, Tesla China, and Li Auto are the top three brands in terms of market share, holding 35%, 5%, and 4% respectively [8][9]. Key Trends - The report highlights a total of 1.27 million applications for the trade-in subsidy program as of October 7, with an average of 4,000 new applications daily during the first week of October [11][12]. - The average daily orders for various NEV brands during the week of September 29 to October 6 were as follows: BYD (23,571 units), Li Auto (2,857 units), and others [17]. Pricing Dynamics - The average price cut for NEVs was 8% year-to-date, with 88 price cuts observed [19]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 3.0% week-over-week, currently at RMB 73,900 per ton [25]. Upcoming Events - Key events to watch include the official launch of ZEEKR Mix on October 23 and XPeng Tech Day on October 24 [15][16]. Market Share Changes - Tesla China, AITO, and Xiaomi gained market share by 2.0 percentage points, 0.8 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points respectively, while BYD Group, Galaxy, and Nio lost market share [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Innolight (300308 SZ) despite a 7% reduction in the 12-month target price to RMB 215 (from RMB 230) due to near-term supply constraints [1] Core Viewpoints - Innolight's 3Q24 net profit of RMB 1 39bn (+3% QoQ +104% YoY) missed Goldman Sachs estimates by 12% primarily due to FX losses of ~RMB 80mn and EML supply tightness which slowed shipment growth [1] - Demand for 800G and 1 6T transceivers remains strong with 3Q order growth outpacing shipment growth Management expects 800G demand to grow significantly into 2025 driven by cloud customers' AI inferencing on Ethernet networks while 400G demand is expected to phase out gradually in 2H25 [1][3][4] - 100G EML supply is expected to remain tight through 4Q24 but may improve in 1H25 due to supplier capacity expansion and Innolight's increased EML order placements [2] Financial Performance Summary - 3Q24 revenue was RMB 6 514bn (+115% YoY) with gross profit of RMB 2 191bn (+116% YoY) and gross margin of 33 6% (+0 1ppts YoY) [2] - Operating profit for 3Q24 was RMB 1 751bn (+143% YoY) while net income reached RMB 1 39bn (+104% YoY) [2] Estimate Revisions - Revenue estimates for 2024-26E were revised down by 4% due to FX changes and component constraints Net profit estimates were revised down by 6%-9% [6] - 2024E revenue is now projected at RMB 24 491bn (-4% vs previous estimate) with gross profit of RMB 8 221bn (-6 7%) and net income of RMB 5 222bn (-9%) [7] Industry and Competitive Position - Innolight is the largest optical transceiver supplier in China's datacom market with a leading position in global 800G/1 6T optical transceivers used in AI networking [8] - The company benefits from strong execution in capacity ramp and new product development maintaining tight supply relationships with global hyperscalers and networking/GPU vendors [8] Component Pricing and Margins - Potential price hikes from EML and DSP vendors are expected to have limited impact on Innolight's margins as pricing is still under negotiation and not all vendors are seeking price increases [5]