必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中國光大環境(集團)有限公司 (於香港註冊成立之有限公司) | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 不適用 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 00257 說明 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 6,142,975,292 0 6,142,975,292 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 0 本月底結存 6,142,975,292 0 6,142,975,292 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

中青旅 20260227 摘要 乌镇春节期间游客量基本恢复至 2019 年水平，营收增长 27%，人均消 费显著提升，主要得益于年俗活动、戏剧节返场、科技文化融合等内容 创新，以及央媒与新媒体平台并举的营销策略，全网曝光达 1 亿次。 古北水镇春节游客量同比大增 136%，营收增长 11.38%，受益于"北 方古镇+司马台长城"差异化资源，以及"打铁花"替代无人机等创新 举措。虽有"预约免门票"政策影响收入增幅，但优先做大人气与口碑 的策略效果显著。 旅行社业务春节预订情况良好，产品形态从快速观光转向深度体验，中 青旅通过产品创新大赛等机制提升产品特色。入境业务散客化趋势明显， 英文导游供给有限，团组对接与组织能力仍是核心优势。 春秋假政策扩围对景区经营构成显著利好，乌镇戏剧节带动效应明显。 应对策略上，景区需持续提升内容供给，面向春秋假客群打造适配产品， 并强化与学校端的联系。 乌镇酒店业态呈现结构性分化，民宿板块表现突出，新开业酒店增长较 好，而部分会所类、宾馆类及开业年限较长的酒店运营效果偏弱。2026 年春节乌镇整体入住率为 85%，房价较 2019 年提升 16%。 Q&A 2026 年春节假期，乌 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 垃圾焚烧多元特性，AI 时代下重估其价值 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | [Table_Pic 相对市场表现 2025Quote] -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 环保 沪深300 | [Table_Author 分析师： ]陈龙 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 | | | 021-38003623 | | | shchenlong@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭鹏 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | | 021-38003655 | | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 荣凌琪 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the State Council's implementation opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [14][15]. - The green methanol projects in China are primarily concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions, with a planned capacity of 18.37 million tons per year [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and recommends investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36%, while the public utility index fell by 1.25% and the environmental index increased by 0.63% [13][21]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 0.23%, hydropower by 2.06%, and new energy generation by 0.58% [22]. Important Policies and Events - The State Council issued opinions on the national unified electricity market system, targeting a fully operational market by 2030 [14]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans for the 2026 national carbon emissions trading market [15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and regional power companies like Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [18]. - New energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended due to supportive national policies [18]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profits [18]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [18]. - The report suggests focusing on environmental companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings as they enter a mature phase [19]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International (600027.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 9.9 [7]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.75 for 2024A and a PE of 20.5 [7]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 20.0 [7]. - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.55 for 2024A and a PE of 9.5 [7].

行业研究丨点评报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 生态环境法典草案即将提请审议，关注法治 守护绿水青山下的环保机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 《中华人民共和国生态环境法典（草案）》将于 2026 年 3 月十四届全国人大四次会议审议， 当前已历经三审。我国用法治守护绿水青山将正式迈入"法典化"时代。《草案》五编，包括 总则编、污染防治编、生态保护编、绿色低碳发展编、法律责任和附则编。其中，绿色低碳发 展单独成编，"十五五"降碳是发展重点，非电绿能、再生资源等因政策驱动存崛起契机；预 计减污将持续深化，看好垃圾焚烧、水务、大气业绩稳健+价值重估。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 生态环境法典草案即将提请审议，关注法治守 2] 护绿水青山下的环 ...

各有关单位： 当前，中国垃圾焚烧发电行业已实现从增量扩张到存量运营的转型。截至 2024年10 月，全国已投运焚 烧炉 2172台，涉及企业 1010 家。其中，东部地区率先达成原生垃圾"零填埋"目标，新增项目逐渐向西 部地区及县域下沉，单体项目规模趋于缩小;同时，排放标准日益严格，运营成本持续攀升。叠加"国补 退坡、垃圾量不足"双重压力，企业竞争模式已从"跑马圈地"转变为"精耕细作"，通过并购整合、技术 升级、静脉产业园协同和海外布局等策略，打造高效、低碳、可持续的城市固废综合服务体系。 为促进中国垃圾焚烧发电行业健康发展，北极星搭建行业沟通交流平台，将于2026 年4 月15 日-16日举 办"第七届全国垃圾焚烧发电项目运营管理与创新应用研讨会暨 2025'北极星杯'垃圾焚烧发电行业评选 颁奖典礼"，拟邀政府部门、业内权威专家、垃圾焚烧龙头企业、环保污染治理企业等，破困境之局， 共谋未来发展方向! 现将会议事宜通知如下： 一、会议时间、地点、形式 主题：创新提质·降碳增效 时间：2026 年 4 月 15 日-16 日 地点：江苏 3.垃圾焚烧发电厂运营管理高级研修班(第五期) 四、议程范围 PART1： ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]