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首席来了|诚通证券李宗光:科技创新支撑股市中长期表现
在板块布局方面,李宗光表示,全球资本正在重新审视中国资产的配置价值,特别是那些具备政策支 持、技术优势和成长确定性的新经济领域,正成为资金追逐的重点。投资者应当密切跟踪这一趋势变 化,把握机遇。同时,也要注意做好风险管理。 中国资产长期投资价值凸显 《中国经营报》:你如何看待这波中国资产重估背后的原因? 李宗光:中国资本市场正经历一轮价值重估过程,这主要由以下多维度因素共同推动: 一是宏观政策的有力支撑。2024年9月26日政治局会议后,宏观政策出现重大转向,各部门出台了一系 列稳增长政策组合拳。货币政策方面,央行通过降息降准释放流动性,同时创设新型流动性工具稳定市 场;房地产领域,调降购房贷款首付比例和存量房贷利率;财政政策方面,推出十万亿化债方案。这些 政策推动市场预期出现明显改善,两市日成交量从之前平均6000亿元附近最高增至3.5万亿元。 本报记者 郝亚娟 张荣旺 上海、北京报道 "投资中国就是投资未来"这句话的含金量还在上升。中国资产重估是投资界高度关注的话题,在这波科 技创新浪潮中,科技股估值重塑,新兴产业价值不断攀升。这一系列变化不仅改变了投资者的投资策 略,也影响了企业发展和资本市场革新。 在 ...
维持超配!瑞银证券孟磊:三大变化推动中国资产重估
券商中国· 2025-03-25 08:36
编者按:千帆"竞技",快者胜。在群雄逐鹿人工智能(AI)时代之际,DeepSeek的横空出世无疑成功喷出 了中国科技创新的"马赫环",不仅让世人对中国科技创新的速度和成果高看一眼,更是让海内外投资者对 于中国的叙事逻辑进行了重构。 当叙事逻辑被重构,中国资产获重估也就变得理所当然。在今年全国两会上,证监会主席吴清表示, DeepSeek的崛起,正引领着中国资产价值重估。 如何抓住中国资产重估带来的广泛而重大的投资机遇?即日起,证券时报郑重推出"中国资产重估"专栏, 记者通过深度访谈众多国内外知名投资机构负责人、研究专家、投行领军人物和高科技企业,逐一剖析重 估逻辑,旨在为投资者带来具有实效性和前瞻性的参考视角。 年内中国股市表现亮眼,受益于科技板块以及DeepSeek的行业和企业都出现了明显的估值上修。而早在2024 年4月,瑞银便上调中国市场评级至超配,近日再次强调中国市场跑赢的概率高于跑输,维持超配中国的判 断。 "短期来看,今年中国股票市场估值提升的最大动能,来自于三个叙事变化:基本面及企业盈利出现反弹,人 工智能发展提振科技投资风险偏好,以及全方位的政策支持助力股市估值修复。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析 ...
人民币压不住了?
虎嗅APP· 2025-03-05 00:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent revaluation of Chinese assets in the capital market, highlighting the impact of Trump's tariff threats and the fluctuating exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. It emphasizes the shift in narrative from "US technology dominance" to "Chinese technology substitution," indicating a growing confidence in China's economic recovery and investment potential [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency and Market Performance - The Chinese yuan has begun to appreciate after a three-month period of weakness, with the offshore yuan exchange rate dropping from 7.36 to 7.22 against the US dollar, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [8]. - As of February 27, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index saw significant increases of 7% and 24%, respectively, before experiencing a sharp decline following Trump's tariff announcement [2][7]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has outperformed US tech stocks, with a year-to-date increase of 40%, marking it as one of the best-performing indices globally [7]. Group 2: Shift in Technological Narrative - The narrative has shifted from "US technology dominance" to "Chinese technology substitution," with China making strides in core technology sectors despite US efforts to contain it [4]. - China's development of the open-source model DeepSeek, which achieved significant efficiency at a fraction of the cost of US counterparts, has raised questions about the sustainability of the US tech bubble [4][5]. - Global investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, with institutions like Deutsche Bank predicting a revaluation of Chinese assets by 2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Challenges and Outlook - Despite the positive sentiment, challenges remain for China's economic recovery, including external pressures from tariffs and internal issues related to insufficient effective demand [19][21]. - The real estate sector's struggles and wealth distribution inequalities are significant factors hindering domestic consumption and investment [21][22]. - The market is hopeful for AI-driven innovation to boost productivity and create new demand, but this optimism is largely based on future expectations rather than current economic performance [22][23]. Group 4: US Economic Context - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy, characterized by rising inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook, which contrasts with China's recovery [10][19]. - The potential "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" proposed by the Trump administration aims to weaken the dollar to enhance US trade competitiveness, reflecting the urgent need to address the US's trade imbalance and industrial hollowing [12][14][15]. - The US's growing debt burden and reliance on financial and consumer sectors, rather than manufacturing, exacerbate its economic vulnerabilities [16][17].