风险提示 国金·月度金股 3 月： | 代码 | 简称 | 行业 | 收盘价(元) | 流通市值 | EPS(元) | | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026/2/26 | 亿元 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 工业金属 | 30.99 | 1074.71 | 1.79 | 2.17 | 17.36 | 14.31 | | 002493.SZ | 荣盛石化 | 炼化及贸易 | 15.27 | 1429.61 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 91.44 | 48.48 | | 603308.SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 73.06 | 496.10 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 111.37 | 79.41 | | 601211.SH | 国泰海通 | 证券Ⅱ | 18.97 | 2560.36 | 1.62 | 1.42 | 11.71 | 13.36 | | 600642.SH | 申能股份 | 电力 | ...

非银金融/证券Ⅱ 华泰证券（601688.SH） 再融资靴子落地，利好国际业务增长 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2026/2/2 当前股价(元) 22.69 一年最高最低(元) 25.75/14.60 总市值(亿元) 2,048.20 流通市值(亿元) 1,657.90 总股本(亿股) 90.27 流通股本(亿股) 73.07 近 3 个月换手率(%) 80.96 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 华泰证券 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩超预期，综合实力行业领先— 华泰证券 2025 三季报点评》 -2025.10.31 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520050001 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 事件：2 月 3 日上午，华泰证券公告拟根据一般性授权发行可转换为本公司 H 股 股份的债券。 再融资靴子落地，利好国际业务增长 本次发行 H 股零息可转债（悉数转换后）一共对 H 股股份稀释 29.53%，对总股 ...

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华泰及广发 H 股再融资落地，持续 加码国际业务 看好 ——券商板块跟踪 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 华泰证券：2026/2/3，华泰证券公告根据一般性授权发行 2027 年到期的 H 股零息转债 100 亿港 元。募资净额：拟 99.25 亿港元。初始转股价：每 H 股 19.70 港元（可予调整），较收盘价溢价 率 6.78%。若以初始转股价计，转股约 5.08 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The issuance of H-share zero-coupon convertible bonds is expected to dilute H-share capital by 29.53% and total capital by 5.6%, with proceeds aimed at overseas business development and working capital supplementation. This is anticipated to have short-term pressure on the stock price, particularly in the Hong Kong market, but is expected to benefit long-term international business growth and enhance overall ROE [4][5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 billion, 217 billion, and 251 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 9%, 29%, and 16% respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 12.2, 9.4, and 8.2 times, with a current PB of 1.20 times [4][6] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 37,078 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, followed by a recovery to 43,144 million yuan in 2026 and 48,837 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 16.4% and 13.2% respectively [7][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 16,750 million yuan in 2025, 21,680 million yuan in 2026, and 25,067 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 29.4%, and 15.6% respectively [7][10] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 51.2% in 2025 to 58.5% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 45.2% to 51.3% over the same period [7][10] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for the company are 12.2 for 2025, 9.4 for 2026, and 8.2 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][10] - The projected PB ratios are 1.2 for 2025, 1.1 for 2026, and 1.0 for 2027, suggesting a decreasing trend in the price-to-book ratio [7][10]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 2026 年 01 月 28 日 标杆案例业绩高增！看好行业并购 重组提质增效 看好 ——券商板块跟踪 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ⚫ 国泰海通发布 2025 年业绩预增公告，业绩符合预期。全年业绩预增：2026 年 1 月 27 日，国泰 海通发布 2025 年业绩预增公告，公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 275.33~280.06 亿元 /yoy+111%~115% （ VS 中 信 证 券 300.5 亿 元 /yoy+38% ） ；实现扣非归母净利润 210.53~21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to achieve a 47% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with projected revenues of 586.8 billion yuan and a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% increase [1][3]. - The report highlights a trend of asset rebalancing between light and heavy assets within the brokerage sector, which is crucial for future performance [1]. - The investment environment for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be less favorable compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected decline in investment income [2]. Revenue and Profit Projections - For 2025, the brokerage sector is projected to generate total revenues of 586.8 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 217.7 billion yuan, representing a 47% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2025, the sector is expected to achieve revenues of 167.2 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 158.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase [3]. Brokerage Business Performance - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for Q4 2025 is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][6]. - The average daily margin trading balance is expected to reach 2.49 trillion yuan, showing a 40% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - New account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Q4 2025 are projected to be 7.288 million, a decrease of 37% year-on-year [2]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The report indicates a recovery in equity business under low base conditions, with Q4 2025 IPO issuance expected to reach 54.9 billion yuan, a 165% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - The asset management business is projected to see a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year, with expected revenues of 14.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [2][6]. - The public fund market is expected to grow, with the non-money market fund size reaching 21.9 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes: 1. Strong comprehensive capabilities of leading institutions such as Guotai Junan and GF Securities 2. Brokerages with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities 3. Companies with strong international business capabilities, such as China Galaxy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.42%. The financial technology ETF, Huaxia (516100), fell by 3.90% to a latest price of 1.527 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.09 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.43% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, the financial technology ETF Huaxia recorded a cumulative increase of 14.32% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Wind All A index, which rose by 5.80% during the same period [1] - The financial technology ETF Huaxia reached an intraday high of 1.648 yuan, marking a new high in nearly a month [1] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the financial technology ETF Huaxia is 83.42, which is in the 73.97th percentile over the past year, indicating that the valuation is lower than 26.03% of the time in the past year, suggesting a moderate valuation [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The financial technology ETF Huaxia tracks the financial technology index (930986.CSI), with significant weightings in software development (49.81%), IT services II (24.05%), securities II (9.57%), computer equipment (9.40%), and communication equipment (3.99%) [2]

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector, particularly the insurance segment, is highlighted as a key area of focus due to expected performance driven by short-term premium growth and mid-term investment income increases [1] - The concentration of fixed deposits maturing may lead to an increase in insurance premiums, contributing to a strong start for the insurance industry [1] - A strong stock market is anticipated to enhance investment returns for insurance equity investments, while rising interest rates due to returning inflation may improve insurance yield [1] Group 2 - The securities industry is viewed as a pro-cyclical sector, with expectations of increased industry prosperity following economic work meetings and enhanced fiscal support for infrastructure projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Current market liquidity is characterized by significant driving features, with continued growth in ETF and margin financing, alongside expectations of foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation, providing support for the non-bank financial sector [1] - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which selects listed companies closely related to the securities market, covering brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading to reflect the overall performance and market dynamics of the securities industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent revision of the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which aims to enhance investor benefits and promote long-term value investment [2][3]. - The public fund industry is entering a new phase of healthy and high-quality development following the comprehensive implementation of fee reforms [3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the scale of publicly offered funds, driven by long-term capital inflows and the need for diversified asset management in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The revised regulations differentiate subscription fees for mixed and index funds, aligning the subscription fee for index funds with that of bond funds, which is capped at 0.3% [3][4]. - The redemption fee structure has been adjusted to protect individual investors while encouraging institutional investors to focus on long-term value [3]. Industry Review - In 2025, the public fund industry saw a significant transformation with the implementation of 25 measures aimed at promoting high-quality development, including optimizing fee structures and enhancing performance benchmarks [3]. - The total scale of publicly offered funds grew from 8.3 trillion yuan to 36.3 trillion yuan over the past decade, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the scale of publicly offered funds will continue to grow in 2026, supported by the influx of long-term capital from insurance institutions and pension funds [3]. - Equity and fixed-income plus products are expected to become the main drivers of growth, as they align with the demand for asset appreciation in a low-risk environment [3]. Investment Analysis - The comprehensive reform of public funds is expected to benefit brokerage firms in both investment and distribution segments, with a shift towards long-term value investment [3]. - The report highlights the potential for brokerage firms to leverage their expertise in equity and index products as a competitive advantage in the evolving market landscape [3].

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]