行业报告 | 行业深度研究 证券研究报告 2024年07月16日 生猪专题:猪周期到哪了?板块预期差在哪里? 作者: 分析师 吴立 SAC执业证书编号:S1110517010002 分析师 陈潇 SAC执业证书编号:S1110519070002 联系人 陈炼 行业评级: 上次评级: 强于大市 ( 评级) 维持 强于大市 1 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 ➢ 猪周期到哪了?板块预期差在哪里? 一、 供需展望:供需剪刀差放大,重视大周期 1)供应端:①生猪理论供应量持续减少。本轮全国能繁母猪存栏量累计最大去化约11%(截止2024年5月),上一轮周期(2021-22年)农业部累计最 大去化幅度为9%(对应22年周期猪价高点28元/kg+),三元母猪淘汰优化极大弥补了21年实际产能去化,而近两年行业效率未出现大幅提升,今年生猪 供应压力或持续缓解;②活体库存正常。今年行业二育多为滚动出栏(行业对猪价谨慎看好,且二育头均盈利水平较为理想),截止7月11日,150kg以 上生猪出栏占比仅为4.89%,处于近几年较低位,大猪库存处于正常状态。③冻品压力有限。自23年10月来,每月进口猪肉量均低于10万吨/月,为 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2024 年 07 月 08 日 五粮液(000858.SZ) 重新认识五粮液 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------|--------|--------|---------|---------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 73,969 | 83,272 | 91,674 | 102,033 | 114,277 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 11.7 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 26,690 | 30,211 | 33,874 | 38,298 | 43,581 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 14.2 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | | ROE(%) | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.4 | 23.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄(元) | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company has already put into production 30,500L capacity, with an additional 36,000L capacity expected to be completed by the end of July [5] - The global biopharmaceutical market is projected to reach approximately $70 billion in the next 5 years, with 60% in the US, 30% in Europe, and 10% in other regions [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - TOFIDENCE (tocilizumab injection) and Avzivi® (bevacizumab injection) are being commercialized in Europe and the US, with pricing strategies differing from competitors [3] - BAT8006, a FRα ADC product, has shown superior anti-tumor activity in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer patients with FRα expression levels of TPS≥1% [19] - Betanine® (bevacizumab citrate injection) has shown a 43% risk reduction in clinical studies compared to 16% for similar products [12] Market Data and Key Metrics - The US is the primary market for biologics, with recent FDA and CMS policies favoring the rapid entry of biosimilars into the market [6] - TOFIDENCE began sales in the US in May, with market expansion expected to take time [15] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is preparing to compete in global markets, particularly in the face of potential centralized procurement in China [1][9] - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity and preparing for market entry of new products [5][12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company believes that the biopharmaceutical sector will be less affected by US election outcomes, as the focus is more on industries like electric vehicles and electronics [13] - The company is optimistic about the supportive policies for innovative drugs and biopharmaceuticals in China, particularly in Guangzhou [14] Other Important Information - BAT8006 received FDA IND approval in March for Phase II clinical trials in platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, or primary peritoneal cancer [8] - The company is exploring the feasibility of combining BAT8006 with bevacizumab and PD1 for treatment [8] Q&A Session Summary Q1: Impact of potential US tariffs on Chinese goods and company strategy - The company is prepared to compete in centralized procurement scenarios, focusing on production cost competitiveness [1] Q2: Future centralized procurement possibilities for adalimumab and bevacizumab - The company is considering global market competition and preparing for potential centralized procurement [9] Q3: Support measures for innovative drugs in China - The company highlights supportive policies at both national and local levels, particularly in Guangzhou [14] Q4: Sales progress of tocilizumab and bevacizumab in Europe and the US - The company notes that pricing strategies differ from competitors and that market expansion will take time [3][15] Q5: Impact of US-China relations on BD transactions and agreements - The company has not observed any significant impact on BD transactions due to US-China relations [2] Q6: Current and future production capacity - The company has 30,500L capacity in production and expects to complete an additional 36,000L by the end of July [5] Q7: Sales strategy and pricing for tocilizumab and bevacizumab in Europe and the US - The company's partners determine the commercialization strategy, with pricing differing from competitors [3] Q8: Market share in regions outside the US - The company did not provide specific details on market share outside the US [17] Q9: Timeline for biosimilar entry into the US market - It may take six months or more for a biosimilar to enter the US market after approval, with additional time needed to gain market share [20] Q10: Commercialization plans for bevacizumab - The company did not provide specific details on commercialization plans for bevacizumab [4] Q11: Market sales expectations for bevacizumab - The company notes uncertainty in market expectations due to factors like医保准入 [21] Q12: Advantages of FRα ADC and future clinical development plans - BAT8006 has shown superior anti-tumor activity and safety in early data, with plans for further clinical trials [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a significant increase in R&D expenses, reaching 360 million yuan, with two-thirds of this amount allocated to biopharmaceuticals, indicating a strong focus on this area [2][4] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of approximately 15% to 20% for 2024 compared to 2023, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability despite market challenges [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company aims to expand its product offerings from over 50 to 120 by 2027, focusing on small molecule drugs, which have been a significant contributor to gross profit [1][4] - The company is actively developing three insulin products, with expectations for clinical trials to progress as planned, indicating a robust pipeline in the diabetes treatment segment [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company predicts a gradual recovery in raw material prices, with expectations of a 10% increase by early next year, following a period of price stabilization [14][22] - The biopharmaceutical market is expected to see significant growth, with the company projecting that biosimilars could capture 70% to 80% of the market by 2030 [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. biopharmaceutical market, emphasizing rapid product development and high-quality standards [1][4] - The strategy includes a focus on collaboration in R&D, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, to enhance innovation and market competitiveness [2][4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the approval timelines for key products, including a biosimilar expected to be approved in Q4 of this year, which could generate significant revenue [8][9] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining price stability in a competitive market, indicating a preference for sustainable profit margins over aggressive pricing strategies [49][54] Other Important Information - The company has successfully resolved patent challenges for key products, which is expected to facilitate smoother market entry and sales [7][8] - The management noted that the global market for biopharmaceuticals is becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on quality and compliance as critical success factors [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the market outlook for the biosimilar Adalimumab? - The company anticipates that biosimilars will significantly increase their market share, potentially reaching 70% to 80% by 2030, driven by the expiration of patents and increased competition [33][35] Question: How does the company plan to manage its inventory levels? - Management clarified that while inventory levels are currently high, they are not overly concerning, as they are in line with industry standards and will be managed strategically to avoid price wars [42][44] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding pricing in a competitive environment? - The company aims to maintain price stability and avoid aggressive price competition, focusing instead on quality and sustainable profit margins [49][54]

证券研究报告 2024年07月18日 行业报告: 行业深度研究 乘用车 复盘日系出海东南亚,对比亚迪出海的思考与启发 作者: 分析师 孙潇雅 SAC执业证书编号:S1110520080009 分析师 王彬宇 SAC执业证书编号:S1110523070005 行业评级: 上次评级: 强于大市 ( 评级) 首次 强于大市 1 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 此篇报告,我们通过复盘日系出海东南亚的历程,为比亚迪乘用车出海提供借鉴,并对比亚迪进行推荐。 日系车如何启发比亚迪出海东南亚? ➢ 1)产品:结合东南亚国家偏好车型针对性推出电动车产品。分国家看,泰国、印尼分别偏好空间宽敞、实用性强的皮卡和MPV,比亚迪 Atto3的空间、经济性不输油车,动力、舒适性优势明显。马来西亚偏好紧凑型车,比亚迪海豚作为小型电车或能更好迎合市场需求。我 们预计在政策引导、市场驱动下,25/30年东南亚电车渗透率达到12%/28%,比亚迪凭借优质的车型供给有望成为新能源市场的主力。 ➢ 2)渠道:与当地知名经销商合作,推动服务网点建设。考虑日系品牌压力,我国车企若直接开设直营店建立渠道,可能展业较困难,可 通过经销模式快速 ...

2024 年 07 月 19 日 00:44 发言人 00:00 发言人 01:02 发言人 01:37 发言人 02:07 发言人 04:24 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中国天楹 20240718_原文 我们今天邀请中国信的董事长助理肖总，我给大家来看一下天元的 20 年业绩半年度的业绩预告 的一个交流会。我看肖总已经到了，肖总您先给大家对 24 年上半年，包括二季度的一个情况做 一个介绍。赵宝兄弟，谢谢尊敬的各位投资者，大家上午好啊。首先感谢大家对中国电影的关 注。我现在这几天市场也不是很好，大家还能够抽出这个时间来听我这样一个电话会。 发言人 00:35 我们中心应该是在 7 月 10 号发布了 2024 年的半年报。2024 年的预计的上半年的一个净利润， 大概在 3.52 亿到 3.9 亿次区间。那就去年同期的话应该是有一个大幅的增长。我想 2021 年，中 国天银是提出了这么一个叫环保加新能源，以及推进国内国际双循环的这么一个发展战略。 以整个一季报为例的话，我们可以会看出来，就整个我们的从财务层面上面反映出来的，其实 还是主要的。这个是我们的环保的业务。因为我们新 ...

中科星图 20240718_原文 白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议，相关人员应自主做出投 资决策，并自行承担投资风险。国电证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任 何责任。未经国联证券事先书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转 发、引用本次会议内容，否则，由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担，本公司 保留追究其法律责任的权利。 发言人 01:37 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 发言人 00:00 好，尊敬的各位投资者，大家下午好，我是国联军工的吴爽。然后欢迎大家参加我们国联证券 2024 年中期投资策略会的线上部分。今天我们是很荣幸的邀请了我们重点推荐的一家公司中科 星图的张总，过来给我们进行一个半年度的经营情况的线上交流。我们也这个公司近期也发布 了 2024 年的半年报的业绩预告。2024 年的上半年，公司预计会实现营收 10.5 到 11.5 个亿，同 比增长 45%到 59%，实现归母净利润 5500 万到 6700 万，同比增长 56%到 90%左右这样的一个水 平。下面我们先有请张总简单的给我们介绍一下 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 北方华创 20240718_原文 2024 年 07 月 19 日 00:43 发言人 00:01 特别声明,本会议为光大证券专业机构投资者设计,任何情形下,会议内容不构成对任何人的 投资建议。参会者应当充分了解各类投资风险,根据自身情况自主做出投资决策,并自行承担 投资风险。嘉宾发言内容仅代表嘉宾的个人观点和立场。研究人员发言内容来自于以外发报告 或对研报的跟踪解读,观点仅代表报告发布当日的判断。本会议内容的知识产权仅归光大证券 所有。未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式、任何目的进行转发、翻版、复制、发 布或引用会议全部或部分内容,亦不得擅自录音、制作会议纪要、对外传播。 发言人 00:54 好的,谢谢。今天是我们科技龙头系列的第七期,然后北方华创我也来汇报一下整个北方华创 的一个情况。北方华创是今年以来我们在整个半导体板块里面首推的标的我们的这个标题就是 平台优势凸显,然后充分受益先进制成的一个扩展。其实从去年的一个新签订单上来讲,其实 华创的一个平台优势还是体现的比较明显的。去年其实是整个半导体设备里面,一这个可能说 是一个小年,就是整体 ...

北方华创 20240718_原文 2024 年 07 月 18 日 23:01 发言人 00:01 特别声明,本会议为光大证券专业机构投资者设计,任何情形下,会议内容不构成对任何人的投资建议。 参会者应当充分了解各类投资风险,根据自身情况自主做出投资决策,并自行承担投资风险。嘉宾发言内 容仅代表嘉宾的个人观点和立场。研究人员发言内容来自于以外发报告或对研报的跟踪解读,观点仅代表 报告发布当日的判断。本会议内容的知识产权仅归光大证券所有。未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以 任何形式、任何目的进行转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容,亦不得擅自录音、制作会 议纪要、对外传播。 发言人 00:54 好的,谢谢。今天是我们科技龙头系列的第七期,然后北方华创我也来汇报一下整个北方华创的一个情况 北方华创是今年以来我们在整个半导体板块里面首推的标的我们的这个标题就是平台优势凸显,然后充分 受益先进制成的一个扩展。其实从去年的一个新签订单上来讲,其实华创的一个平台优势还是体现的比较 明显的。去年其实是整个半导体设备里面,一这个可能说是一个小年,就是整体的一个全球整体以及国内 整体都是一个下滑的状态。但是北方华创的 ...

16 July 2024 2 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 6437aaa8de6c4611b8ac8998231c2d63 Goldman Sachs Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) that a global fleet of a few million commercial AVs used for rideshare could be on the road in 2030. China now has c. 4-5mn ridehailing cars total in operation; for illustrative purposes, if we assume 5% Robotaxi penetration in the long term and similar pricing to normal taxis, this would translate to RMB35bn/US$5bn in TAM size. Apart from Robotaxi, Baidu is likely to see near term softness in ad ...