| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 [Table_Page] 投资策略|中期报告 2024年6月30日 证券研究报告 [中Table_国Title] 资产 ROE 如何实现层级跃迁 ——2024 年中期策略 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or]刘 晨明 [Table_Summary] SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 报告摘要： liuchenming@gf.com.cn ⚫ 中国资产ROE如何实现层级跃迁。全球长时序的经验显示，高且稳定 分析师： 郑恺 的 ROE 对于资产回报率有着决定性作用，而目前中国与日韩国家的 SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 ROE普遍落在6%-8%（对应PB1-1.5倍）的低区。参考美、日、德经 SFC CE No. BUU989 验，龙头公司能够实现高且稳定ROE的两个条件：①反内卷，②全球 zhengkai@gf.com.cn 化。虽然很难，但这似乎是部分中国资产未来实现ROE层级跃迁的必 分析师： 余可骋 经之路，在总需求缺乏大的β的背景条件下，也将对应着下一个时代的 SAC 执证号：S0260524030007 核心资产。 ...

证券研究报告 拐点临近，景气上行 ——国防军工行业2024半年度策略 行业评级：看好 2024年6月23日 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 比亚迪(002594)公司首次覆盖报 2024年06月23日 告 [Table新_Tit能le]源 车领军企业，剑指海外市场 [Table 买_Inv 入est] | 首次推荐 ——比亚迪(002594)首次覆盖报告 [报Ta告bl要e_S点um：ma ry] [当T前ab价le/_目Ta标r价ge：tP 2r5i0c.e6]7 元/315.90元  公司是国内新能源车领军企业，产能渠道布局领先 目标期限： 6个月 公司成立于1995年，凭借多年的技术革新和生产实践，公司已经构建了从 [基T本ab数le据_B ase] 上游电池原材料、IGBT、SiC等关键组件，到中游新能源三电系统、混合动 52周最高/最低价(元)： 272.0 / 167.0 力平台、整车电子、底盘、内饰等核心部件，再到下游汽车销售及金融服务 A股流通股(百万股)： 2260.47 等全产业链的深度研发与精细成本控制能力。产能方面，公司目前国内合 A股总股本(百万股)： 2909.27 计规划产能已达 475 万辆，海外合计规划产能已达 110 万辆。渠道布局 ...

2024 年 06 月 25 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： [Table_Title] 寻找房价周期之锚 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn ——一个日本视角 最近一年走势 房地产如此重要，关系国计民生，它是国民经济的支柱、财富的象 征、大类资产配置的核心、经济周期之母、民生的保障、金融危机 的策源地。 房价是反映房地产市场波动的核心指标之一，其变动影响购房者预 期、居民家庭财富变动和金融体系的稳定。 近年来，房价波动引发广泛讨论，市场开始寻求其变化规律，试图 找到能判断房价是否见底的“锚”。我们从周期视角、收益率视角、 收入视角、货币视角，分析判断房价变动趋势及其内在逻辑。本文 相关报告 是该系列研究的第一篇：周期之锚。 《开年看地产：一线城市房地产市场怎么走》—— 2024-03-19 从1998年房改以来，中国的房价经历了二十多年的平稳上升，并未 《构建“人房地钱”联动的房地产发展新模式*夏磊》 经历大幅调整。国际来看，发达国家的房价经历过明显的周期，特 ——2024-03-05 别是日本，在基本面上和中国有相似之处，也有一定的差异。 《2024年房地产市场 ...

行 业 研 究 2024.06.20 电 子 行 业 专 题 报 告 模拟芯片库存拐点已至，AI 拉动电源相关需求 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 原厂+渠道携手控制库存，拐点已至。库存方面，本轮周期下行期中，模拟 郑震湘 登记编号：S1220523080004 芯片原厂携手分销商、汽车Tier 1厂商一同控制库存，已取得一定成效。 TI表示国内工业库存去化已经接近尾声；ADI本季度库存去化近1亿美元， 佘凌星 登记编号：S1220523070005 预期下季度库存将进一步优化；瑞萨表示渠道长期库存已经趋于稳定；NXP 的分销渠道库存成效显著，已控制在 1.6 个月。我们认为随着下游需求逐 步复苏，模拟芯片库存将趋于正常。 行 业 评 级 :推 荐 工业需求强劲复苏，AI芯片功率提升拉动电源相关需求。需求方面，ADI表 行 业 信 息 示强劲的PMI数据支撑了工业领域持续的订单，这有助于库存的不断消化， 上市公司总家数 511 工业行业将于下个季度重回增长。MPS看到了 AI 需求强劲，在积极备货主 总股本(亿股) 5,485.32 动增加库存。算力芯片功率相较于传统 CPU 高出 ...

证券研究报告 风格决定胜负，科技成长崛起 ——2024年下半年A股策略展望 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The stock market performed weakly last week, with cyclical sectors such as consumer, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experiencing declines [1][2] - The bond market showed strong performance, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2.5% [1][2] - The RMB faced depreciation pressure, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking through 7.25 and offshore RMB reaching above 7.3 [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The A-share market is currently focused on two sectors: dividends and technology [1][4] - The industrial mother machine concept gained recognition due to the tech conference, and AI-driven changes in the consumer electronics and Apple supply chain have attracted attention [1][4] Market Data and Key Metrics - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with market confidence in policy remaining low despite some easing measures [2] - The export sector showed strong performance from the beginning of the year to mid-May, but this trend is unlikely to sustain without a new global easing cycle [4] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company highlighted the need to eliminate negative factors such as tight global USD liquidity and domestic real estate issues to fully repair the A-share market and create conditions for a new bull market [5][6] - The company emphasized that the current phase of risk aversion is marked by the shift in market capitalization from Moutai to ICBC, signaling the end of the leveraged growth era [1][3] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current risk aversion in the market is due to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues, which need to be resolved to restore market confidence [5][6] - The company expects that the A-share market will require both overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts to achieve a full recovery [7] Other Important Information - The company discussed the potential impact of the upcoming Third Plenum, which is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms to address current economic challenges [9][10] - The company highlighted the importance of fiscal and tax reforms in addressing the unsustainable fiscal model and supporting future economic growth [11][16] Q&A Summary Question: What were the main characteristics of the capital market last week? - The capital market was dominated by risk aversion, with weak stock market performance and strong bond market performance [2] Question: What is the significance of Moutai's market capitalization being surpassed by ICBC? - This shift marks the end of China's leveraged growth era and reflects the current extreme risk aversion in the market [3] Question: What sectors in the A-share market are worth paying attention to? - The A-share market is currently focused on dividends and technology, with particular attention on AI-driven changes in consumer electronics and the Apple supply chain [4] Question: When will the risk appetite for Chinese assets open up? - The risk appetite for Chinese assets will open up once negative factors such as global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues are resolved [5][6] Question: What are the main reasons for the poor performance of the A-share market over the past two years? - The poor performance is attributed to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues [6] Question: What conditions are needed for the repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks? - The repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks require overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts [7] Question: Why has China not implemented large-scale easing policies? - China has not implemented large-scale easing due to RMB depreciation pressure and incomplete financial supply-side reforms [8] Question: What impact will the Third Plenum have on market expectations? - The Third Plenum is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms, which could influence market expectations [9][10] Question: What are the main challenges facing China's real estate market? - The real estate market faces challenges such as oversupply, demographic changes, and reduced demand due to population aging [12] Question: How does local fiscal contraction affect the economy? - Local fiscal contraction has significantly impacted government spending and public services, contributing to overall economic weakness [13] Question: What are the long-term impacts of demographic changes on China's economy? - Demographic changes, including aging and declining birth rates, will have profound impacts on labor supply, consumption, and social security systems [14][17] Question: What are the key drivers of China's rapid prosperity over the past 20 years? - The key drivers include industrialization, urbanization, and a leveraged growth model supported by a large working-age population [15] Question: How is fiscal reform interconnected with other institutional reforms? - Fiscal reform is closely linked to other institutional reforms, including government expenditure optimization, social security system improvement, and financial regulation [16] Question: What are the current and future trends in China's population structure? - China's population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of elderly expected to double by 2051, and a significant decline in the working-age population [17][18] Question: What are the causes and effects of the declining birth rate? - The declining birth rate is caused by a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age and is expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic challenges [19][21] Question: How will population distribution between urban and rural areas affect social development? - The concentration of young people in cities and the aging population in rural areas will lead to resource allocation imbalances and increased fiscal pressure [20][23] Question: What measures should the Chinese government take to address aging and declining birth rates? - The government should focus on employment, education reform, vocational training, and improving the social security system to address these challenges [24][25] Question: How should healthcare reform be conducted? - Healthcare reform should focus on cost control through centralized procurement and the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [26] Question: What are the expected reforms in consumption tax? - Consumption tax reforms are expected to shift from the production to the consumption stage and be decentralized to local governments [30] Question: What is the outlook for the copper market? - The copper market is expected to remain weak until there is a clear signal of monetary easing in the US or China [35] Question: What is the outlook for the bond market in July? - The bond market's performance in July will depend on RMB exchange rate pressures, with limited downside if the pressure is high [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - US manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.2, below the previous value and expectations, indicating a continued downward trend in economic fundamentals amid slower-than-expected inflation cooling [5] - Global manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.9, showing a divergence in global manufacturing performance, with China declining, emerging markets expanding, Europe bottoming out, Germany improving, the US declining, Japan and South Korea recovering, and India performing well [5] - US CPI for April showed core CPI growth at 0.3% month-on-month, the lowest in three years, easing concerns about a "no landing" scenario and secondary inflation risks [25] - US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with education and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and government sectors being the main contributors [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America performed better in May, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, exceeding the expected 6.4% [10] - Exports of household appliances, consumer electronics, and semiconductor-related products performed relatively well, with the contribution of electronics and semiconductors to exports rising from 0.77% to 1.12% [10] - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate more in Q3, with a possible negative growth in Q3 and a low single-digit positive growth for the full year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit facility rate by 25bps to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, in line with market expectations [7] - The ECB maintained its forecast of two more rate cuts within the year, with no rate cut expected in July [7] - The US dollar index is expected to remain strong during the election year, with a unified government potentially benefiting the dollar index more than a divided government [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on export opportunities to Europe, particularly in light industry, electrical equipment, household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and general machinery [15][22] - The company is monitoring the rightward shift in the European Parliament elections, which may lead to a downward revision of export expectations for "new three" products (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) [13] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the European economy, with potential valuation repair in European stocks as the economy stabilizes [22] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Prospects - The company expects the US inflation trend to remain sticky, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates only once or not at all within the year [25] - The company anticipates that the US labor market will continue to cool slowly, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control and unlikely to cut rates within the year [28] - The company predicts that long-term US Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4%, with real interest rates unlikely to decline significantly [34][40] Other Important Information - The company highlights the potential for Bitcoin to outperform gold and the US dollar in the medium to long term, driven by global liquidity changes, risk appetite, and technological advancements [77] - The company expects oil prices to fluctuate around $85-90 per barrel, with a potential increase in the latter half of the year due to supply-demand tightness and OPEC+ efforts to support prices [66][68] - The company notes that copper prices may face downward pressure in Q3 due to a strong US dollar, but a sustained upward trend will depend on the economic recovery post-rate cuts [71] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document.

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - Japan's inflation level is steadily rising, with expectations for another interest rate hike in July 2024 due to "re-inflation" pressures [1] - The Bank of Japan may face challenges in tightening monetary policy as the economy struggles to recover, necessitating a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation [1] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the U.S., the GDP growth rate was revised down from an initial estimate of 1.6% to 1.3% for Q1 2024, with personal consumption growth also adjusted down to 2% [4][7] - Private consumption, which constitutes about 45% of GDP, showed resilience with a growth rate of 3.9%, indicating structural strengths despite overall economic slowdown [4] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The U.S. trade deficit widened in April 2024, with imports increasing by 2.4% and exports growing by 2.5%, reflecting a shift in demand dynamics [10] - In the Eurozone, the actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2024 was 0.3%, driven primarily by household consumption and net exports, while investment showed a decline [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slowdown in growth momentum, with private consumption likely to be suppressed as excess savings are depleted [15] - The Eurozone is focusing on fiscal discipline while also promoting government investment growth, with the European Parliament passing reforms to limit deficits and debts [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted that the U.S. economy is facing increased uncertainty, with consumer confidence declining significantly in May 2024 [4] - In Japan, the management noted that the economy is hindered by short-term disruptions, with consumer sentiment weakening and private investment remaining low [47][49] Other Important Information - The U.S. commercial real estate sector is under pressure, with rising vacancy rates and declining property values, raising concerns about financial stability among smaller banks [19] - The Eurozone's inflation showed signs of rebound in May 2024, with the harmonized CPI increasing to 2.6%, indicating potential challenges for monetary policy [25] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the expectations for U.S. economic growth in the coming quarters? - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to be around 1.8% for Q3 2024, with a full-year growth rate of approximately 2.1%, reflecting a decline from the previous year [18] Question: How is the Eurozone managing its economic recovery? - The Eurozone is experiencing a slow recovery, with private consumption and investment being the main growth drivers, while government spending remains stable [30] Question: What are the risks associated with the commercial real estate market in the U.S.? - The commercial real estate market is facing significant risks due to high vacancy rates and reliance on leveraged financing, which could impact the broader economy [19]