Group 1: Hang Seng Index - Ningde Times (300750) (03750), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993), and Laopu Gold (06181) will be included in the Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 90 [1][2]. Group 2: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index - Beike-W (02423) and Horizon Robotics-W (09660) will be added to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, while China Resources Beer (00291) will be removed, maintaining the total number of constituent stocks at 50 [5]. Group 3: Hang Seng Composite Index - East Asia Bank (00023) and Guofu Quantum (00290) will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, with the number of constituent stocks increasing from 507 to 532 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Beike-W (02423.HK) has shown a downward adjustment, influenced by market concerns regarding performance expectations, industry competition, and policy environment [1][2]. Recent Events - Beike plans to adjust talent flow rules starting March 1, 2026, removing restrictions on agents' movement between brands and regions to enhance operational flexibility [2]. - In December 2025, Beike was interviewed by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission due to compliance issues, leading to increased compliance costs [2]. - Several local agricultural credit systems and banks have introduced direct property sales models, impacting Beike's core business by diverting traditional intermediary customers [2]. - In November 2025, the company reportedly laid off over a hundred employees, and disputes over fees related to the "Bo Xue Da Kao" program have raised concerns about stability at the grassroots level [2]. Financial Report Analysis - Beike's Q3 2025 financial report indicates a structural change, with net revenue increasing by 2.1% year-on-year to 23.1 billion yuan, but net profit significantly decreased by 36.1% to 747 million yuan, and gross margin fell from 22.7% to 21.4% [3]. - The revenue share from non-property transaction businesses (such as home decoration and leasing) has historically increased to 45%, but the growth in low-margin leasing has negatively impacted overall profitability [3]. - Analysts are cautious about the upcoming Q4 2025 financial report, predicting a potential year-on-year revenue decline due to high base effects, although profitability may recover through cost optimization and new business improvements [3]. Institutional Views - Goldman Sachs downgraded Beike's rating to "Neutral" on February 3, 2026, citing a 12-month forward P/E ratio of approximately 23 times, indicating overvaluation [4]. - Despite a 13% month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transaction volume and supportive policies boosting sentiment, Beike faces pressure from severance costs due to layoffs [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts an adjusted net profit of approximately 600 million yuan for Q4 2025, below market expectations of 990 million yuan, and anticipates an 8% year-on-year decline in new home sales in 2026, indicating continued revenue pressure [4].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the quarterly review results for the Hang Seng Index series, effective from March 9, 2026, after market close on March 6, 2026 [1] - The Hang Seng Index will add three stocks: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (03750), Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993), and Laopuhuang Co., Ltd. (06181), while removing Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited (00881), increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 90 [1] - Laopuhuang has seen a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of nearly 20% since the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 constituent stocks, adding Beike-W (02423) and Horizon Robotics-W (09660), while removing China Resources Beer (00291) and Mengniu Dairy (02319) [2] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will add 53 stocks, including Bank of East Asia (00023), and remove 28 stocks, including Shui On Land (00272), increasing the number of constituent stocks from 507 to 532 [5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index will not change, maintaining 30 constituent stocks [6] Group 3 - The total assets under management for products tracking the Hang Seng Index series is approximately $117.7 billion as of December 2025 [6] - The adjustments in index constituents may trigger passive fund rebalancing, potentially leading to increased trading volume for related stocks as the effective date approaches [6] - The inclusion of new economy enterprises in sectors like renewable energy, new consumption, and biotechnology is expected to enhance the growth potential and investment attractiveness of the indices, reducing the weight of traditional industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is undergoing significant adjustments in its major indices, with changes in constituent stocks for the Hang Seng Index and other related indices [2][4][8]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 88 to 90, adding Ningde Times (03750), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), and Laopu Gold (06181), while removing Zhongsheng Group (00881) [2][4]. - Laopu Gold has shown a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% since the beginning of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Changes - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 constituent stocks, adding Beike-W (02423) and Horizon Robotics-W (09660), while removing China Resources Beer (00291) and Mengniu Dairy (02319) [6]. Group 3: Hang Seng Composite Index Changes - The Hang Seng Composite Index will add 53 stocks, including East Asia Bank (00023), and remove 28 stocks, increasing its total from 507 to 532 [8]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index will remain unchanged at 30 constituent stocks [8]. Group 4: Market Performance Analysis - Since the beginning of 2026, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 3.65%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has decreased by 2.82% [10]. - In 2025, both indices saw increases, with the Hang Seng Index up by 27.77% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 23.45% [10]. - Among the 88 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index, 69 have risen, 18 have fallen, and 1 has remained flat since the end of 2025 [10]. Group 5: Notable Stock Performances - The top performers since the beginning of 2026 include New World Development (41.18%), Techtronic Industries (31.92%), and Pop Mart (31.81%) [11]. - Conversely, the worst performers include Trip.com (-24.22%), Meituan (-20.47%), and NetEase (-13.47%) [11].

Performance Overview - The company reported a net revenue growth of only 2.1% year-on-year to 23.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit saw a significant decline of 36.1% to 747 million yuan, with adjusted net profit also decreasing [1] - Despite an increase in revenue contribution from emerging businesses like home decoration and leasing, the traditional new home transaction volume declined year-on-year, and the growth rate of existing home business slowed down, leading to weakened overall profitability [1] Industry Policy and Environment - In December 2025, the company was summoned by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and other departments due to online irregularities, resulting in increased compliance costs [2] - Various local agricultural credit systems and banks initiated direct property sales models, offering a "30-day transaction cycle + prices 10%-15% below market" advantage, which directly impacts the company's traditional business model [2] - The company's first self-operated project, "Financial City · Beichen S1," showed insufficient sales rate, indicating challenges in its transformation attempts [2] Company Status - In November 2025, the company was reported to have laid off over a hundred employees, and dissatisfaction among agents arose due to disputes over the "Bo Xue Da Kao" fee, exacerbating internal management issues and raising market concerns about the stability of grassroots services [3] - Although the company continues to repurchase shares, trading remains sluggish, amplifying volatility risks [3] - As of February 12, 2026, the stock price closed at 48.50 HKD, showing a noticeable decline from the previous day's high [3] Future Development - The real estate policy in 2026 is expected to focus on "stabilizing expectations," but the industry is still in a bottoming phase, with institutions predicting a potential year-on-year revenue decline for the company in Q4 2025 [4] - Market attention is on whether the company can effectively transform through AI empowerment and new business expansion amidst the contraction of traditional business [4]

以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 业绩经营情况 机构分析显示，贝壳2025年第四季度财报预计近期发布。美银证券等机构预测，受高基数影响，季度收 入可能同比下降，但通过成本优化和新业务改善，盈利有望复苏。 资金动向 贝壳自2022年启动的回购计划已扩大至50亿美元，截至2025年三季度末累计回购约23亿美元。2026年1 月披露显示，公司仍在进行股份购回并拟注销，彰显现金流实力。 经济观察网 贝壳在2026年初有多项动态值得关注，包括平台规则调整、2025年第四季度财报预期以及 股份回购计划的持续执行。 近期事件 贝壳计划于2026年3月1日起实施人才流转规则调整，取消经纪人在品牌、地域等方面的流动限制，以提 升平台灵活性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The BoShi Hong Kong Internet ETF (159568) has shown positive performance since its inception, with significant increases in both share count and fund size in 2025 [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of February 11, 2024, the BoShi Hong Kong Internet ETF closed with a gain of 0.78%, with a trading volume of 53.48 million yuan [1]. - The fund was established on February 8, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - The latest share count is 324 million, with a total fund size of 539 million yuan, reflecting a 27.57% increase in shares and a 27.24% increase in size since December 31, 2025 [1]. Liquidity Metrics - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 2.066 billion yuan, averaging 103 million yuan per day [1]. - In the year to date, the ETF has seen a total trading volume of 3.446 billion yuan over 28 trading days, averaging 123 million yuan per day [1]. Fund Management - The current fund manager, Li Qingyang, has managed the ETF since its inception, achieving a return of 66.36% during his tenure [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include Tencent Holdings (15.35%), Alibaba-W (14.43%), Xiaomi Group-W (13.96%), and Meituan-W (12.30%), among others [2].

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (Beike), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings is expected to experience a revenue decline of 28.5% YoY in 4Q25, with anticipated revenue of RMB22.2 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB427 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.9% [1]. - The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in the home transaction business due to its strong technological capabilities, superior service quality, and established agent cooperation network [1]. - For FY26E, the report forecasts a recovery in earnings driven by cost optimization measures and profitability improvements in new businesses, projecting a non-GAAP net profit of RMB7.0 billion, which represents a 42% YoY growth [1]. - The target price has been raised by 5% to US$21.80, reflecting a positive long-term operating cash flow outlook [1][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, revenue is reported at RMB77.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.2%. The adjusted net profit is RMB9.8 billion, showing a significant growth of 244.7% [2]. - The revenue forecast for FY25E is RMB94.6 billion, with a slight YoY growth of 1.3%, while the adjusted net profit is expected to decline to RMB4.9 billion, a decrease of 31.5% [2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB91.5 billion for FY26E, with an adjusted net profit of RMB7.0 billion, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 52.2x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 29.4x in FY26E and further to 22.5x in FY27E, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings recover [2][14]. - The SOTP-based valuation for Beike Core is estimated at US$20.9 per ADS, with an additional US$0.9 per ADS for Shengdu, leading to a total valuation of US$21.80 per ADS [1][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].