Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in new home transaction volume, with a total transaction value of 7,368 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [3][4] - The company's net income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 62.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The "second curve" strategy focusing on home decoration, rental, and emerging businesses has shown strong growth potential, with these segments collectively growing by 54.3% year-on-year [4] Financial Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's total revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 26.8% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.7%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The company’s operating expenses were 4.4 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a fee rate of 19.5%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the end of 2023 [5] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 175.17 billion HKD [7] Business Performance - The new home business revenue reached 7.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the transaction value was 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The rental business revenue surged by 118.4% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 27.3 billion yuan, up 31.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has increased its store count to 48,200, a year-on-year growth of 12.1%, and the number of active agents reached 476,000, up 11% year-on-year [5] Market Outlook - The market recovery is ongoing, with new home transaction areas in key cities showing a month-on-month increase of 44% in October 2024 [6] - The company expects a positive impact on second-hand home transactions due to new tax policies and incentives introduced in November 2024 [6] - The company forecasts an EPS of 2.22 yuan for 2024, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the potential for continued growth in the fourth quarter [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4 due to policy influences [2][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV market share increase and a record high monetization rate [2][23]. - The existing housing business performance aligns with real estate policy trends, with expectations for a notable rebound in Q4 [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 7.9% [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business had a GTV of 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16%. Revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business achieved a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%, with a market share of 12.0% [2][23]. - The new business segment showed strong growth, with home decoration and rental services contributing significantly to revenue [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan [2][35]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 18.3 for 2024 and 18.0 for 2025 [2][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4. The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [2][4][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [2][23]. - The company’s new track business is maintaining good growth momentum, with home decoration and rental services showing significant revenue increases [2][35]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year but a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 7.9%, with a gross margin of 23%, both showing a decline compared to previous periods [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase but a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from this segment was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business's GTV market share increased to 12.0%, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024, with a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [2][23]. - The new track business accounted for 4% of GTV and 38% of revenue, with home decoration revenue growing by 33% year-on-year and rental service revenue increasing by 118% year-on-year [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan for 2024 and 9.2 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 18.3 and 18.0 respectively [2][4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 at 19.0x, 17.9x, and 15.5x respectively [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.585 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, while net profit decreased by 0.2% to 1.168 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit fell by 17.5% to 1.782 billion yuan [1]. - The increase in revenue was accompanied by a higher rise in operating costs, which increased by 35.0% year-on-year, leading to a decline in gross margin by 4.7 percentage points to 22.7% [1]. - The company experienced growth in both new and existing home transactions, with existing home gross transaction value (GTV) at 477.8 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, and new home GTV at 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company's "one body, three wings" strategy is showing positive results, with home decoration, rental housing, and emerging businesses contributing to a total revenue of 8.64 billion yuan, a 54.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 38.3% of total revenue [1]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, spending approximately 5.8 billion USD in 2024, which represents 3.32% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the period [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company’s projected Non-GAAP net profits are adjusted to 9.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with subsequent years showing growth of 6.3% and 15.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at 91.12 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.16%, and is expected to reach 107.62 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.486 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.12% [5].

Financial Performance - Total transaction volume for Q3 2024 reached RMB 736.8 billion (USD 105 billion), a 12.5% YoY increase[3] - Net income for Q3 2024 was RMB 22.6 billion (USD 3.2 billion), a 26.8% YoY increase[4] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 1.168 billion (USD 167 million), with adjusted net profit at RMB 1.782 billion (USD 254 million)[5] - Net revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 22.58 billion (USD 3.22 billion), a 26.8% increase compared to RMB 17.81 billion in Q3 2023[56] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 5.13 billion (USD 731.7 million), up 5.2% from RMB 4.88 billion in Q3 2023[56] - Net income attributable to KE Holdings Inc. for Q3 2024 was RMB 1.17 billion (USD 166.88 million), a 1.1% increase from RMB 1.16 billion in Q3 2023[58] - Total operating expenses for Q3 2024 increased to RMB 4.41 billion (USD 628.1 million), up 11% from RMB 3.97 billion in Q3 2023[56] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 decreased 20.2% YoY to RMB 727.0 million (USD 103.6 million)[56] - Total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached RMB 62.33 billion (USD 8.88 billion), up 8.3% from RMB 57.57 billion in the same period of 2023[56] - Net income for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 3.50 billion (USD 498.9 million), down 32.9% from RMB 5.22 billion in the same period of 2023[56] - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 1.03 (USD 0.15), compared to RMB 1.48 in the same period in 2023[60] - Diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 0.99 (USD 0.14), compared to RMB 1.44 in the same period in 2023[60] - Adjusted operating profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 5,135,508 thousand (USD 731,804 thousand), compared to RMB 7,863,542 thousand in the same period in 2023[62] - Adjusted net profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 5,867,447 thousand (USD 836,106 thousand), compared to RMB 8,084,730 thousand in the same period in 2023[62] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 7,191,233 thousand (USD 1,024,743 thousand), compared to RMB 9,644,947 thousand in the same period in 2023[62] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of KE Holdings Inc. for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3,494,908 thousand (USD 498,021 thousand), a decrease compared to RMB 5,213,619 thousand in the same period of 2023[64] - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of KE Holdings Inc. for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 5,861,402 thousand (USD 835,245 thousand), compared to RMB 8,078,787 thousand in the same period of 2023[64] - Basic adjusted net income per ADS for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 5.16 (USD 0.74), compared to RMB 6.87 in the same period of 2023[66] - Diluted adjusted net income per ADS for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 4.99 (USD 0.71), compared to RMB 6.71 in the same period of 2023[66] Business Segments Performance - Home renovation and furnishing business revenue reached RMB 4.21 billion, a 32.6% YoY increase[11] - Rental services revenue reached RMB 3.94 billion, a 118.4% YoY increase[11] - Existing home business net revenue remained flat at RMB 6.2 billion (USD 900 million) in Q3 2024 compared to RMB 6.3 billion in Q3 2023, while total transaction value increased by 8.8% to RMB 477.8 billion (USD 68.1 billion)[13] - New home business net revenue increased by 30.9% to RMB 7.7 billion (USD 1.1 billion) in Q3 2024, driven by an 18.4% rise in total transaction value to RMB 227.6 billion (USD 32.4 billion)[14] - Home renovation and furnishing net revenue grew by 32.6% to RMB 4.2 billion (USD 600 million) in Q3 2024, supported by increased order volume and improved delivery capabilities[14] - Rental services net revenue surged by 118.4% to RMB 3.9 billion (USD 600 million) in Q3 2024 due to an increase in rental properties under the "Worry-Free Lease" model[16] - New home business revenue grew 30.9% YoY to RMB 7.73 billion (USD 1.10 billion) in Q3 2024[56] - Home renovation and furnishing revenue increased 32.6% YoY to RMB 4.21 billion (USD 600.4 million) in Q3 2024[56] - Existing home business net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 6,217,054 thousand (USD 885,923 thousand), a slight decrease from RMB 6,307,085 thousand in the same period last year[72] - New home business net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased to RMB 7,726,316 thousand (USD 1,100,991 thousand) from RMB 5,901,966 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Home decoration and furnishing business net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, rose to RMB 4,213,041 thousand (USD 600,354 thousand) from RMB 3,176,739 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Rental services net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, surged to RMB 3,941,234 thousand (USD 561,621 thousand) from RMB 1,804,374 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Emerging businesses and others net revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 487,002 thousand (USD 69,397 thousand), down from RMB 620,541 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Existing home business contribution profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 2,549,227 thousand (USD 363,262 thousand), a decrease from RMB 3,069,848 thousand in the same period last year[72] - New home business contribution profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased to RMB 1,913,932 thousand (USD 272,733 thousand) from RMB 1,483,195 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Home decoration and furnishing business contribution profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, rose to RMB 1,316,028 thousand (USD 187,533 thousand) from RMB 924,488 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Rental services contribution profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 174,262 thousand (USD 24,832 thousand), up from RMB 56,353 thousand in the same period last year[72] - Emerging businesses and others contribution profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 386,276 thousand (USD 55,044 thousand), down from RMB 556,419 thousand in the same period last year[72] Operational Metrics - Number of stores as of September 30, 2024, was 48,230, a 12.1% YoY increase, with active stores at 46,857, a 14.6% YoY increase[5] - Number of agents as of September 30, 2024, was 476,420, an 11.0% YoY increase, with active agents at 423,400, a 6.1% YoY increase[5] - Average mobile MAUs for Q3 2024 were 46.2 million, compared to 49.2 million in the same period last year[5] Share Repurchase and Financial Position - The company repurchased approximately USD 200 million worth of shares in Q3 2024[11] - The company has repurchased approximately 102.2 million ADSs (equivalent to approximately 306.5 million Class A ordinary shares) under its share repurchase program, with a total consideration of approximately USD 1,493.4 million[30] - Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 59.5 billion (USD 8.5 billion) as of September 30, 2024[29] - Total assets increased from RMB 120,331,931 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 122,795,712 thousand as of September 30, 2024, representing a growth of approximately 2.05%[48] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased significantly from RMB 19,634,716 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 9,576,948 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a decline of approximately 51.23%[48] - Short-term investments increased from RMB 34,257,958 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 43,654,035 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a growth of approximately 27.43%[48] - Total current liabilities rose from RMB 39,523,983 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 43,147,206 thousand as of September 30, 2024, an increase of approximately 9.17%[51] - Lease liabilities (current portion) increased from RMB 9,368,607 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 12,900,946 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a growth of approximately 37.71%[51] - Total liabilities grew from RMB 48,130,826 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 51,902,049 thousand as of September 30, 2024, an increase of approximately 7.84%[51] - Shareholders' equity decreased slightly from RMB 72,201,105 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 70,893,663 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a decline of approximately 1.81%[53] - Accumulated deficit improved from RMB (5,672,916) thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB (2,178,008) thousand as of September 30, 2024, reflecting a reduction in losses[53] - Total equity (including non-controlling interests) decreased from RMB 72,201,105 thousand as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 70,893,663 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a decline of approximately 1.81%[53] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 4,306,568 thousand (USD 613,680 thousand), a decrease compared to RMB 9,388,339 thousand in the same period of 2023[69] - Net cash used in investing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 7,362,441 thousand (USD 1,049,140 thousand), compared to RMB 7,689,643 thousand in the same period of 2023[69] - Net cash used in financing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 6,966,444 thousand (USD 992,710 thousand), compared to RMB 5,484,524 thousand in the same period of 2023[69] - Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at the end of September 30, 2024, were RMB 15,820,424 thousand (USD 2,254,392 thousand), compared to RMB 21,995,376 thousand at the end of September 30, 2023[69] Non-GAAP Financial Measures - Adjusted operating profit margin is defined as adjusted operating profit (loss) as a percentage of net revenue[26] - Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as net profit (loss) excluding items such as income tax expense, share-based compensation, and depreciation[26] - Adjusted net profit (loss) attributable to KE Holdings Inc. ordinary shareholders is a non-GAAP measure excluding items like share-based compensation and amortization of intangible assets[26] - Non-GAAP financial measures are used by the company to evaluate operating performance and formulate operational plans, including adjusted operating profit (loss) and adjusted EBITDA[37] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for GAAP measures such as gross profit, net profit (loss), or other performance indicators[38] - Adjusted operating profit (loss) excludes share-based compensation expenses, amortization of intangible assets from acquisitions and business cooperation agreements, and impairment of goodwill, intangible assets, and other long-term assets[38] - Adjusted net profit (loss) excludes share-based compensation, amortization of intangible assets, fair value changes of long-term investments and receivables, impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets, investment impairment, and tax effects of non-GAAP adjustments[40] - Adjusted EBITDA excludes income tax expenses, share-based compensation, intangible asset amortization, depreciation of property, plant, and equipment, net interest income, fair value changes of long-term investments and receivables, impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets, and investment impairment[40] Strategic and Operational Highlights - The company's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy saw a 54.3% YoY increase in revenue, accounting for 38.3% of total net revenue, up 6.8 percentage points from the same period last year[11] - The company operates a leading online and offline integrated real estate transaction and service platform in China, with over 23 years of operational experience through its subsidiary Lianjia[41] - The company's strategic and operational plans, as well as management discussions, contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties[43] - The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements unless required by applicable law[43] - The company's board of directors includes executive directors Peng Yongdong, Shan Yigang, Xu Wangang, and Xu Tao, as well as non-executive director Li Zhaohui and independent non-executive directors Chen Xiaohong, Zhu Hansong, and Wu Jun[45] Exchange Rate and Other Information - The exchange rate used for RMB to USD conversion is RMB 7.0176 to USD 1.00, based on the Federal Reserve H.10 statistical release as of September 30, 2024[36] - The company will hold an earnings call on November 21, 2024, at 7:00 AM Eastern Time to discuss financial results[33] - The company's unaudited condensed consolidated balance sheet is presented in thousands, except for share and per share data[47]

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,468.9 billion, a decrease of 16.2% compared to RMB 1,752.1 billion in the same period of 2023[4] - Net income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 39.7 billion, relatively flat compared to RMB 39.8 billion in the same period of 2023[4] - Adjusted net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 40.9 billion, down from RMB 59.3 billion in the same period of 2023[4] - Total net income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 39.7 billion, remaining stable compared to RMB 39.8 billion in the same period of 2023[15] - The total transaction volume for the company's existing housing business decreased by 16.3% year-on-year to RMB 131 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024[15] - Net income from new housing business decreased by 24.9% to RMB 12.9 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 17.1 billion in the same period of 2023, driven by a 32.4% decline in total transaction value to RMB 387.1 billion[16] - Net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2,332,526, a decrease of 42.4% compared to RMB 4,049,251 for the same period in 2023[49] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 2,485,589, down 49.8% from RMB 4,941,946 in the previous year[49] Revenue and Income Sources - Non-property transaction service revenue accounted for 34.8% of total net income, a significant increase of 17 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] - The home decoration and furnishing business saw a total transaction volume growth of 24.0% year-on-year and revenue growth of 59.9% in the first half of 2024, with a profit margin of 31.0%[11] - Net income from home decoration and furniture increased by 59.9% to RMB 6.4 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 4 billion in the same period of 2023, due to synergies between property transaction and home decoration businesses[17] - Net income from housing rental services surged by 176.7% to RMB 5.8 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 2.1 billion in the same period of 2023, primarily due to an increase in managed rental properties[17] Operational Metrics - The number of active stores as of June 30, 2024, was 44,423, an increase of 8.1% from 41,076 stores as of June 30, 2023[4] - The number of active agents as of June 30, 2024, was 411,478, stable compared to 409,054 agents as of June 30, 2023[4] - The company is advancing towards a "one-stop living service platform" model, enhancing shareholder returns and optimizing capital structure[6] - The company is implementing refined operations and technology products to improve agent efficiency and operational capabilities[7] - The company is exploring different store formats to increase community coverage and enhance the one-stop living service experience[8] Cash Flow and Financial Position - The net cash generated from operating activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3.86 billion, down from RMB 7.43 billion for the same period in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 48.0%[27] - The net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 6.84 billion, compared to a net cash inflow of RMB 7.63 billion in the same period of 2023[27] - The company reported a net cash decrease of RMB 8.33 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to an increase of RMB 12.22 billion in the same period of 2023[27] - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 59.7 billion, a slight decrease from RMB 60.1 billion as of December 31, 2023[26] - The company reported capital expenditures of RMB 462 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, aimed at supporting anticipated business growth[33] Debt and Liabilities - The total financial debt as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 20.21 billion, an increase from RMB 17.99 billion as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a rise of approximately 12.9%[28] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is 42.3%, an increase from 40.0% as of December 31, 2023[31] - The total liabilities increased to RMB 51,794,889 as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 48,130,826 as of December 31, 2023[45] - The total amount of accounts payable reached RMB 6,684,706 thousand, an increase of 5.6% from RMB 6,328,516 thousand as of December 31, 2023[44] Shareholder Returns and Repurchase - The company has repurchased approximately 3.15% of its total shares as of the last feasible date in 2024, with a total expenditure of about USD 5.53 billion for the share repurchase plan[14] - The company plans to expand its existing share repurchase program from USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion, extending the repurchase authorization until August 31, 2025[14] Employee and Operational Costs - The company employs a total of 122,599 employees, with the majority (96,440) in brokerage and support roles[38] - Total operating costs for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 29.1 billion, slightly up from RMB 28.1 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - The company maintained stable store costs at RMB 1.4 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, consistent with the same period in 2023[19] Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased slightly to RMB 92,926 from RMB 90,038, representing a growth of 3.2%[49] - The company recognizes research and development expenses as incurred, which include employee-related compensation and costs associated with R&D functions[120] Accounting and Compliance - The company has not identified any significant issues that would lead to a belief that the interim financial data is not prepared in accordance with US GAAP[42] - The company is currently evaluating the impact of new accounting standards issued in November 2023 and December 2023, but does not expect significant effects on its financial statements[63] - Significant accounting estimates impacting the financial data include revenue recognition, credit loss provisions, and impairment assessments for long-term assets[67] Investments and Subsidiaries - The company operates through various subsidiaries, including 德佑房地產經紀有限公司 and 貝殼找房科技有限公司, all of which are 100% owned and primarily engaged in real estate services in China[56] - The company has expanded its service offerings to include home decoration services through subsidiaries like 北京被窩裝飾有限公司 and 聖都家居裝飾有限公司, both fully owned[56] - The company has established a strong presence in the Chinese market with multiple subsidiaries dedicated to various aspects of real estate transactions and services[56] Market and Economic Conditions - The RMB depreciated approximately 2.4% against the USD for the six months ended June 30, 2024[131] - The company has not faced any significant foreign exchange risk, as most of its income and expenses are denominated in RMB[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 58.3 / USD 22.4, indicating a potential upside of approximately 53% / 52% from the current stock price [1][2]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience and financial stability amidst fluctuations in the real estate market, achieving a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 13.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 93.5% in Q2 2024 [1]. - The total transaction volume reached RMB 839 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase, while net revenue grew by 19.9% to RMB 23.4 billion [1]. - The company has expanded its share buyback program, increasing the authorization from USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion and extending the buyback period until August 31, 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 2.69 billion, with a gross margin of 27.9%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The existing home transaction volume increased by 25% year-on-year to RMB 5.707 billion, while new home transaction volume decreased by 20.2% to RMB 2.353 billion [1]. - The home decoration and rental services saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 53.9% to RMB 4 billion and rental services revenue soaring by 167.1% to RMB 3.2 billion [1]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 7.7 billion, RMB 8.5 billion, and RMB 9.5 billion over the next three years [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue increase from RMB 77.8 billion in 2023 to RMB 102.9 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.1% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards the company, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends [12]. Core Insights - The company has increased its stock buyback plan from $2 billion to $3 billion, extending the duration until August next year, demonstrating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value [2][12]. - The company has repurchased a total of $1.39 billion in shares since initiating its buyback program in September 2022, ranking eighth in the Hong Kong stock market for buyback amounts this year [3][13]. - The company reported a 19.9% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q2, reaching 23.4 billion yuan, with significant contributions from its home decoration and rental services [8][13]. Summary by Sections Stock Buyback and Dividends - The company has executed a total of $1.39 billion in stock buybacks, with a significant portion of shares being canceled rather than held as treasury stock [3][4]. - The company has also declared a special dividend of $600 million, marking its first dividend distribution since its listing [12]. Business Performance - The company experienced a 25% increase in transaction volume for existing homes and a 22.3% increase in home decoration services, while new home transactions declined by 20.2% [7][8]. - The rental service revenue surged by 167.1%, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [8]. Strategic Transformation - The company is transitioning to a one-stop residential service platform, integrating home decoration and rental services to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [9][10]. - The company’s operational cash flow turned positive in Q2, with a total of 3.86 billion yuan in cash flow for the first half of the year [10][11]. Long-term Commitment to Shareholders - The company emphasizes its responsibility to long-term investors, showcasing a consistent positive cash flow since 2019 and a low debt ratio of 42.3% [11][12]. - The management expresses confidence in the company's growth potential and commitment to sharing success with shareholders [12][13].

房地产/房地产服务 公 司 研 究 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2024 年 08 月 14 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/14 | | 当前股价(港元) | 37.750 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 55.400/32.400 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,384.58 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,337.74 | | 总股本(亿股) | 36.68 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 35.44 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 1.97 | 股价走势图 贝壳-W 恒生指数 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《政策密集有助主业企稳，新业务扩 张驱动二次增长—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.5.27 《持续提升主业份额，等待家装业务 驱动二次增长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.3.16 《主业韧性超预期，家装家居持续拓 展 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月14日 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 优于大市 Q2 营收净利同环比均改善，彰显行业龙头业绩弹性 Q2 营收和净利润同环比均明显改善。收入端，2024Q2，公司实现 GTV 交易总 额 8390 亿元，同比+7%，环比+33%；营业收入 234 亿元，同比+20%，环比+43%， 其中新赛道业务收入占比维持 35%。利润端，2024Q2，公司实现归母净利润 19 亿元，仅次于 2023Q1，同比+45%，环比+338%；经调整归母净利润 27 亿 元，同样创历史次高，同比+13%，环比+93。2024Q2，公司经调整归母净利 率 11.5%，贡献利润率 33%，毛利率 28%，各项经营成本费率环比也均改善。 存量房业务受益于地产政策的积极变化迅速回暖。2024Q2，公司存量房业务 GTV 为 5707 亿元，同比+25%，环比+26%；存量房业务收入 73 亿元，同比+14%， 环比+28%。2024Q2，公司存量房业务货币化率 1.29%，同比下降一方面是因 为结构性因素，链家交易额的占比下降，另一方面 2023 年 9 月起链家在北 京下调了存量房佣金费率，再往后基数影响 ...