证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2026.2.10 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.10 证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企密集提价，行业供需格局平稳 【2026.2.2-2026.2.8】 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.10 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 龙头密集提价，纸品价格稳中有支撑：本周纸品价格整体平稳， 白板纸均价上涨 14 元/吨，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸价格保持 稳定。行业提价动作密集，玖龙八大基地 2 月上调牛卡纸、瓦 楞纸等价格 30-50 元/吨，且计划 3 月再涨 50 元/吨，白卡纸 春节后提价概率较高，叠加中小纸厂停机增多导致供给收缩， 为纸价提供支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格微降，供需格局平稳：纸浆期货库存升至 14.64 万吨（周增 4000 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi coming online. This has resulted in a rapid reduction in pulping costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance beyond expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit increments due to its self-produced pulp advantage. By FY25, the company’s production capacity for white card and cultural paper is expected to reach 1.8 million and 2.27 million tons, respectively, with further expansions planned for FY26H1 [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus remains on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials, with additional production capacity planned for FY26 and FY27. This ongoing expansion is expected to further enhance the company's profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26-FY28 are 72.67 billion, 73.99 billion, and 74.76 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The attributable net profit is forecasted to be 4.08 billion, 4.41 billion, and 5.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 131%, 8%, and 14%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 times [4][9]

纸浆布局超额显现，业绩再超预期 ——玖龙纸业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司公布 FY26H1 业绩预告： FY26H1 公司预计实现净利润 21.5-22.5 亿元，同比+216%-231%，考虑永续债后 实现归母净利润 19.5-20.5 亿元，同比+315.2-336.5%。业绩表现优异主要系产品 销售量增加及销售价格上升，以及原材料成本下降导致毛利润大幅增加。 ❑ 纸浆规模效应显现，利润加速释放 随着公司广西基地纸浆产能投产，区位优势叠加规模效应显现，公司制浆成本快 速降低，纸浆自供比例爬升，成本优势显现，预计纸浆产能扩张与纸浆自供比例 提升仍为本轮业绩超预期核心因素。 ❑ 纸浆系贡献利润，废纸系盈利改善 随着纸浆产能投产，公司配套文化纸、白卡纸亦逐步释放，凭借自产纸浆优势， 虽文化、白卡价格处于历史底部区间，但仍贡献利润增量。截至 FY25，公司白 卡纸/文化纸产能分别为 180/227 万吨，FY26H1 公司进一步投产白卡/文化纸 120/70 万吨。 25H2 受天气因素废纸回收不畅、废纸浆进口收紧等因素影响，废纸推动箱板瓦 楞价格提涨，预计 25H2 吨净利较 25H1 改善推动本轮业绩释放。 ...

Group 1 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) has seen its stock price rise by over 30% year-to-date, with expected profits of approximately HKD 1.88 billion to HKD 2.00 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 47% due to increased marginal profits [1] - Soundon Technology (02495) shares rose over 8.8% after winning a contract worth nearly RMB 300 million for an AI project in Sichuan province [1] - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) stock increased by over 3.8%, with a reported 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries in January 2026, indicating a strong market strategy and capacity layout [1] Group 2 - Tea stocks experienced a rise, with Gu Ming (01364) up 4.12%, Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 3.74%, and others benefiting from a promotional campaign offering free milk tea at over 300,000 stores nationwide [2] - Innovent Biologics (09969) shares surged over 11% after announcing expected revenues of RMB 2.37 billion in 2025, a 134% increase, and a projected net profit of around RMB 630 million [2] - Jun Da Holdings (02865) rebounded over 4.6% following news of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission accepting SpaceX's data center application [2] Group 3 - Li Auto-W (02015) shares rose over 5.3% as the CEO teased the new Li L9 model, emphasizing the importance of AI in enhancing vehicle value [3] - JX International Resources (03858) saw a stock increase of over 4.6% as tungsten prices reached a recent high of CNY 1,545,000 per ton, up CNY 25,000 from the previous trading day [3] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 5.7% after announcing a profit forecast for FY26H1 of CNY 2.15 billion to CNY 2.25 billion, a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [3] Group 4 - Long Resources (01712) stock surged over 35%, reaching a historical high, with expected after-tax profits of AUD 58 million to AUD 62 million for the year ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from AUD 12.9 million in the previous year [4] Group 5 - Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with a closing increase of 7.41%, focusing on power solutions for data centers [5] - Bob's Discount Furniture (BOBS.US) also entered the market, with a slight increase of 0.12%, managing 206 showrooms across 26 states and projecting revenues of USD 2.32 billion for FY2025 [5] Group 6 - Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN.US) fell over 16.67% on its Nasdaq debut, focusing on cancer therapies with a candidate drug in mid-stage trials [6] - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant declines, with Hut 8 (HUT.US) down 17.89% and others following suit amid a Bitcoin sell-off, which dropped nearly 10% [6] Group 7 - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%, and notable tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) also declining [7] - Estée Lauder (EL.US) dropped nearly 19.19% despite meeting sales expectations, reflecting market volatility [7] Group 8 - NIO (NIO.US) shares rose 5.86% after announcing an expected adjusted operating profit of between RMB 700 million and RMB 1.2 billion for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [8] - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) initially surged nearly 14% before closing down 3.77%, launching a new generic medication at a competitive price [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.US) fell 8.46% amid concerns over weak earnings forecasts related to chip shortages affecting smartphone demand [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.13%, down 304 points, closing at 26,580 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - Three new stocks were listed: Dazhu CNC (03200) rose by 18%, Muyuan Foods (02714) increased by 4.72%, and Zhuozheng Medical (02677) surged by 34% [1] - Zhongxin Hang (03931) saw a 3.83% increase, with a 630% year-on-year growth in commercial battery deliveries and plans for full circulation of H-shares [1] - Long Resources (01712) experienced a 30% intraday surge, with expected net profit growth of up to 3.8 times year-on-year [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) rose over 10%, with institutions optimistic about fiber optic manufacturers benefiting from price increases [1] - Nuo Cheng Jianhua (09969) increased by over 11%, achieving profitability for the first time due to the volume of Obutinin and growth in BD revenue [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 5%, benefiting from improved self-sufficiency in wood pulp and favorable industry supply-demand dynamics [1] - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 5%, supported by supply contraction driving up tungsten prices [1] Group 2 - Fuhong Hanlin (02696) rose over 5% after licensing rights to Hanshuo in Japan to Eizai for a total transaction amount of approximately $388 million [2] Group 3 - Tongda Group (00698) increased by over 6%, expecting to turn a profit with a maximum earnings forecast of 125 million HKD for the previous year [3] - NIO-SW (09866) rose over 5%, marking its first quarterly profit with an expected adjusted operating profit of up to 1.2 billion CNY for the last quarter [3] - Cryptocurrency ETFs and related stocks continued to decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 amid ongoing sell-offs in the crypto market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast indicating significant profit growth for FY26H1 [1] Company Summary - The company expects a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 315% to 337% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the effective integration of pulp and paper production, with a total pulp capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1 [1] - An additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in FY27, enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of pulp and providing substantial cost advantages [1] Industry Summary - Since the second half of 2025, prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded from their lows, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton [1] - The price of white card paper has risen by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton since the end of August [1] - The company benefits from a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, allowing it to take full advantage of the improving supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper prices have declined, the company maintains stable profitability due to its pulp and paper integration advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has announced a positive earnings forecast, with significant profit growth expected for FY26H1, driven by integrated pulp and paper operations and improved market conditions [1] Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315% to 337% [1] Industry Dynamics - The company benefits from significant cost advantages due to an increase in self-sufficiency in wood pulp, with a production capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1, and an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp expected to be operational in FY27 [1] - Prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded since H2 2025, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton, and white card paper prices rising by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton [1] - The company has a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, positioning it well to benefit from improvements in industry supply and demand [1] - Despite a decline in cultural paper prices, the company's profitability remains stable due to the advantages of its integrated pulp and paper operations [1]

春节临近，造纸行业各纸种价格走势相对平稳，不过行业头部企业已开始对节后市场进行"预期管理"。 近日，玖龙纸业（控股）有限公司（以下简称"玖龙纸业"）旗下九大基地再度发出调价通知，宣布自3 月2日起，牛卡、瓦楞纸等主要包装纸种价格普遍上调50元/吨。几乎同时，多家纸企陆续发布春节期间 停机检修计划，要求下游包装企业提前做好生产安排。 "这一动作是纸厂在需求季节性下降时，主动调控供给以稳定价格的常规市场行为。"山东卓创资讯 （301299）股份有限公司（以下简称"卓创资讯"）分析师李阳对《证券日报》记者表示。他以白板纸为 例分析称，2025年下半年，白板纸价格从低位持续反弹，并在年末走出"翘尾"行情，实属不易。进入 2026年初，受春节假期及传统淡季影响，市场供需双方活动趋于平缓，头部纸企春节前的这一轮"涨价 函+停机函"齐发的操作，也是一种稳价、挺价的策略，有助于巩固前期价格修复成果。 大同证券在近期研报中分析认为："当前造纸板块处于'盈利修复+长期成长'关键阶段。"应聚焦"提价弹 性+出口/政策受益"双主线。大同证券分析师杨素婷表示，一方面，把握纸品提价主线，瓦楞纸涨价落 地、白卡纸春节后提价概率高，叠加停机 ...