Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast indicating significant profit growth for FY26H1 [1] Company Summary - The company expects a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 315% to 337% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the effective integration of pulp and paper production, with a total pulp capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1 [1] - An additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in FY27, enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of pulp and providing substantial cost advantages [1] Industry Summary - Since the second half of 2025, prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded from their lows, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton [1] - The price of white card paper has risen by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton since the end of August [1] - The company benefits from a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, allowing it to take full advantage of the improving supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper prices have declined, the company maintains stable profitability due to its pulp and paper integration advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has announced a positive earnings forecast, with significant profit growth expected for FY26H1, driven by integrated pulp and paper operations and improved market conditions [1] Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315% to 337% [1] Industry Dynamics - The company benefits from significant cost advantages due to an increase in self-sufficiency in wood pulp, with a production capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1, and an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp expected to be operational in FY27 [1] - Prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded since H2 2025, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton, and white card paper prices rising by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton [1] - The company has a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, positioning it well to benefit from improvements in industry supply and demand [1] - Despite a decline in cultural paper prices, the company's profitability remains stable due to the advantages of its integrated pulp and paper operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing stable price trends ahead of the Spring Festival, with leading companies initiating "expectation management" for the post-holiday market [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Strategies - Nine major bases of Nine Dragons Paper Industries announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton for key packaging paper types starting March 2 [1] - Several paper companies are implementing maintenance plans during the Spring Festival, urging downstream packaging firms to prepare production in advance [1] - Analysts suggest that these actions are standard market behaviors aimed at stabilizing prices during seasonal demand declines [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Profit Recovery - Price adjustments by large paper manufacturers provide market guidance, especially after several rounds of price declines [2] - The first quarter is expected to see reduced supply due to maintenance, with potential price increases post-Spring Festival supported by rising demand [2] - Leading companies like Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Co. have issued positive profit forecasts, indicating a recovery in the industry [2] Group 3: Industry Performance and Challenges - Among 24 A-share listed paper companies, 11 have disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with several predicting losses due to intensified competition and price declines [3] - The paper sector is at a critical stage of "profit recovery + long-term growth," focusing on price elasticity and benefiting from exports and policies [3] Group 4: Segment Analysis - Packaging paper is benefiting from e-commerce logistics and export demand, while cultural paper faces long-term demand pressures due to digitalization [4] - The supply-demand relationship in the packaging paper sector is becoming more balanced, suggesting continued price recovery [4] - Companies with integrated supply chains, such as Shandong Sun Paper Industry, are positioned favorably for profit resilience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, exceeding expectations, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production and improvements in pricing dynamics within the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding 201 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to 3.789 billion, 4.671 billion, and 5.702 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.8, 7.1, and 5.9 times [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant effects, with the company owning 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, including 2 million tons of chemical pulp, and plans to increase capacity to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [1] - The industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with certain paper types seeing price recoveries. As of FY26H1, the company has a total capacity of 17.13 million tons for corrugated box paper, 2 million tons for gray bottom white paper, 3 million tons for white card paper, and 2.97 million tons for cultural paper [1] Group 3: Product Pricing and Market Trends - The price of corrugated box paper has been rising due to factors such as increased costs of recycled paper and seasonal demand, with average prices reaching 3,648 yuan per ton for box paper and 2,857 yuan per ton for corrugated paper in 2025H2, reflecting increases of 33 and 174 yuan per ton, respectively [2] - White card paper prices have also been on an upward trend, reaching 4,239 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, up 309 yuan per ton from August, with expectations for profitability improvement in this segment [2] - Cultural paper prices are under pressure, with an average price of 4,843 yuan per ton in 2025H2, down 489 yuan per ton, but the company is expected to maintain stable profitability in this segment due to its integrated production advantages [2]

Northeast Region - Liaoning Xingdong Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices set for various grades [1] - Shenyang Jiu Long Paper Industry in Liaoning has also lowered yellow waste prices by 20 yuan/ton, with adjusted prices for different grades [1] - Fushun Amber Paper Industry in Liaoning has implemented price adjustments effective January 15, with specific prices for various grades [1] North China Region - Hebei Baoding Zeyu Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [1] - Tianjin Jiu Long Paper Industry has lowered yellow waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton, while other waste paper prices remain unchanged [2] - Tangshan Leiting Zhang's Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 50-30 yuan/ton starting February 2, with specific prices based on yellow board content [3] Central China Region - Henan Taikang Longyuan Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 20 yuan/ton starting February 3, with specific prices for various grades [6] - Hubei Xiangfan Jin Phoenix Paper Industry has adjusted prices for yellow paper grades, with reductions of 20 yuan/ton for A-grade and above [7] - Hubei Jingzhou Gong'an Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has adjusted prices for various grades of waste paper, with reductions of 20-10 yuan/ton [7] East China Region - Shandong Zibo Renfeng Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices starting February 4, with specific prices for different grades [8] - Jiangsu Xuzhou Jianping Paper Industry has lowered waste paper prices by 10 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [8] - Anhui Xuancheng Wanli Paper Industry has increased prices for T-grade, A-grade, B-grade, and C-grade by 20-30 yuan/ton, while other prices remain unchanged [9] South China Region - Guangdong Dongguan Jintian Paper Industry has reduced prices for various grades of waste paper by 20 yuan/ton starting February 4 [26] - Guangdong Dongguan Jiu Long Paper Industry has increased white waste prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for different grades [27] - Guangdong Zhaoqing Mountain Eagle Paper Industry has reduced waste paper prices by 30 yuan/ton, with specific prices for various grades [28]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国造纸杂志社） 1月27日，南通市数据局发布环评受理公示，金红叶纸业(南通)有限公司APP如东基地年产200万t天然纤 维素项目正式公示。项目总投资约163.95亿元，建设周期36个月，主要服务如东基地生活造纸及规划四 期项目。 1月28日，玖龙纸业（02689.HK）在港交所发布公告称，2025年下半年盈利介于21.5亿~22.5亿元人民币 之间，较2024年同期6.803亿元人民币增长216.0%~230.7%。该盈利增长主要由于产品销售量增加及销售 价格上升，及原材料成本下降而导致毛利润大幅增加。 1月28日，岳阳林纸发布公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-2.60亿~-2.00亿元。 1 2月2日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局四部门公布《工业产品碳足迹 核算规则团体标准推荐清单（第三批）》的通告。 2 行业 1月27日，国家统计局公布了2025年全国规模以上工业企业利润情况，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业 实现利润总额73982.0亿元，比2024年增长0.6%。其中，造纸和纸制品业营业收入14186.7亿元，同比下 降2.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected growth of 216%-231% year-on-year, and a growth of 315%-337% when excluding perpetual bond interest [6] - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant benefits, contributing to improved profitability [6] - The company is expected to increase its chemical pulp production capacity to 743 million tons by FY27, enhancing its cost advantages [6] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's profitability [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 59.496 billion RMB - FY2025: 63.241 billion RMB - FY2026E: 73.954 billion RMB - FY2027E: 80.367 billion RMB - FY2028E: 85.478 billion RMB - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.789 billion RMB for FY2026, 4.671 billion RMB for FY2027, and 5.702 billion RMB for FY2028 [5][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 1.00 RMB for FY2026 and 1.22 RMB for FY2028 [5] Industry Context - The company operates in the light manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper industry, which is experiencing a recovery in demand and pricing [6] - The report highlights that the company has a significant production capacity exceeding 20 million tons, which provides substantial economies of scale [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected range of RMB 2.15-2.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding perpetual bond interest of RMB 201 million, the attributable net profit is expected to be RMB 1.95-2.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [8] - The integration of pulp and paper operations has shown significant effects, contributing to improved profitability. The company has a total of 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, with plans to increase this to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [8] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute to profit elasticity [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: RMB 59.496 billion (5% growth) - FY2025: RMB 63.241 billion (6% growth) - FY2026E: RMB 73.954 billion (17% growth) - FY2027E: RMB 80.367 billion (9% growth) - FY2028E: RMB 85.478 billion (6% growth) [7] - Attributable net profit forecasts are: - FY2024: RMB 751 million - FY2025: RMB 1.767 billion - FY2026E: RMB 3.789 billion - FY2027E: RMB 4.671 billion - FY2028E: RMB 5.702 billion [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - FY2024: RMB 0.16 - FY2025: RMB 0.38 - FY2026E: RMB 0.81 - FY2027E: RMB 1.00 - FY2028E: RMB 1.22 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, with a projected year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion RMB, slightly above the forecast of 2 billion RMB by Morgan Stanley [1][1][1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 3.39% to 8.24 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.96 million HKD [1][1][1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the company's overall performance for 2026 will remain robust, despite the first half traditionally being a slow season for paper consumption, which may lead to slight corrections in paper prices [1][1][1] - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure and improved cost performance, which should mitigate the impact of reduced demand during the consumption off-season, contributing to stable annual profits [1][1][1] Industry Summary - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting a capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp by the end of 2025 [1][1][1] - The firm estimates that by 2027, the company's self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] - The demand for containerboard is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing reduced capital expenditure from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [1][1][1] - The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is experiencing a positive market response, with a stock price increase of 3.39% to HKD 8.24, and a trading volume of HKD 25.96 million. Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, projecting a year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between RMB 2.15 billion and RMB 2.25 billion, slightly above their previous estimate of RMB 2 billion, indicating overall alignment with expectations [1][1][1] Group 1: Company Performance - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Nine Dragons Paper will maintain robust performance throughout 2026, despite the first half traditionally being a low-demand season for paper manufacturers, which may lead to slight price corrections. However, the company's optimized product structure and improved cost performance are expected to mitigate the impact of reduced demand during this period, supporting stable annual profits [1][1][1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting that by the end of 2025, Nine Dragons will have a production capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and more than 5.4 million tons of wood pulp. It is expected that by 2027, the self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The demand for containerboard is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing a reduction in capital expenditures from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in the sector. The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]