证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 2023Q4 季报点评：Q4 业绩符合预期，静待 2024年 03月 10日 新品牌放量 证券分析师 曾朵红 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 黄细里 营业总收入（百万元） 49,269 55,618 88,578 117,519 136,945 执业证书：S0600520010001 同比 36.34% 12.89% 59.26% 32.67% 16.53% 021-60199793 归母净利润（百万元） -14,559 -21,147 -13,172 -2,113 1,731 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 同比 -% -% -% -% -% 研究助理 孟璐 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） -8.67 -12.59 -7.84 -1.26 1.03 执业证书：S0600122080033 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） - - - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of HK$57.20, reflecting a valuation of 1.0x EV/Sales for 2024 [3][6][12]. Core Insights - NIO's Q4 2023 revenue exceeded expectations at Rmb17.103 billion, representing a 6.5% year-over-year increase, while automotive revenue was Rmb15.439 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year [4][12]. - The company is focusing on short-term investment returns to enhance profitability, with a new sub-brand, Alps, set to launch in Q2 2024, targeting the mainstream market [4][12]. - NIO's R&D and SG&A expenses increased significantly, leading to an adjusted operating loss of Rmb6.059 billion in Q4 2023, indicating ongoing pressure on short-term performance [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2023 revenue: Rmb17.103 billion, gross margin: 7.5% [4][12]. - Full-year 2023 revenue: Rmb55.618 billion, automotive revenue: Rmb49.257 billion, with a gross margin of 5.5% [4][12]. - Expected 2024 vehicle deliveries: 230,000 units, with revenue projections of Rmb76.96 billion for 2024 [6][12]. Product and Market Strategy - The first vehicle from the Alps brand will directly compete with Tesla's Model Y, expected to launch in Q3 2024 [4][12]. - NIO plans to leverage its existing battery swap network to enhance the competitive advantage of the Alps brand [4][12]. - The company aims to establish over 3,310 battery swap stations nationwide by the end of 2024, which is expected to support sales growth [4][12].

交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月6日 港元42.50 港元40.30↓ -5.2% 蔚来汽车 (9866 HK) 4 季度收入高于预期，但亏损较预期大，维持中性  经营费用支出环比扩大令亏损较预期大。2023 年4 季度，蔚来汽车营收 个股评级 171 亿元人民币（下同），环比下降 10.3%，较我们/市场预期高约 4%；汽 中性 车交付量 50,045 辆，环比下降 9.7%；毛利率为 7.5%，其中汽车毛利率为 11.9%，较我们预期好，环比改善0.9百分点，主要由于成本下降。销售/ 研发费用同时创下季度新高，环比增长30.7%/10.1%，人员和渠道扩张和 1年股价表现 新车研发投入令费用居高不下。4季度，公司净亏损 53.6 亿元，较 3季度 9866 HK 扩大17.8%，亏损高于我们/市场预期约 7%。蔚来2023年净亏损207亿元 80% MSCI中国指数 也较我们/市场预期高13%/11%。在阿布扎比投资机构投入现金22亿美元 60% 40% 后，蔚来持有现金及现金等价物上升至573 亿元。蔚来指引 2024年1季度 20% 车辆交付量为 3.1-3.3 ...

汽车/乘用车 公 司 研 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） NIO 主品牌有赖销售提效，期待 2024H2 阿尔卑斯 究 2024年03月06日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 吴柳燕（分析师） 李秉宸（联系人） wuliuyan@kysec.cn libingchen@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790521110001 证书编号：S0790122090026 日期 2024/3/6  NIO主品牌销量有赖销售提效，期待2024H2阿尔卑斯，维持“增持”评级 港 当前股价(港元) 43.800 考虑到NIO品牌2024年预计无新车型发布，阿尔卑斯平价子品牌预计在2024Q4 股 一年最高最低(港元) 123.80/41.550 公 规模交付，我们将2024-2025年营收预测由852/1009亿元下调至622/782亿元， 司 总市值(亿港元) 918.84 并新增 2026 年营收预测 848 亿元，对应同比增速 12%/26%/8%。考虑到研发费 信 流通市值(亿港元) 905.10 息 用仍需持续投入、子品牌门店铺设导致营业费用增加，分别将 2024-2025 年 总股本(亿股 ...

Vehicle Deliveries and Sales - In Q4 2023, NIO delivered 50,045 vehicles, including 33,679 high-end smart electric SUVs and 16,366 high-end smart electric sedans, representing a 25.0% increase year-over-year but a 9.7% decrease quarter-over-quarter[2] - NIO delivered 10,055 vehicles in January 2024 and 8,132 vehicles in February 2024, with a cumulative delivery of 467,781 vehicles as of February 29, 2024[10] - In 2023, NIO achieved a record delivery of 160,038 vehicles, leading the high-end electric vehicle market in China with an average transaction price above RMB 300,000[16] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2023 reached RMB 17.1032 billion (USD 2.4089 billion), a 6.5% increase compared to Q4 2022, but a 10.3% decrease from Q3 2023[4] - The gross profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 1.2792 billion (USD 180.2 million), up 105.7% year-over-year, but down 16.0% quarter-over-quarter[4] - The operating loss for Q4 2023 was RMB 6.6253 billion (USD 933.2 million), a 1.6% decrease year-over-year and a 36.8% increase quarter-over-quarter[5] - For the full year 2023, total revenue was RMB 55.6179 billion (USD 7.8336 billion), a 12.9% increase from the previous year[9] - The full year 2023 net loss was RMB 20.7198 billion (USD 2.9183 billion), an increase of 43.5% year-over-year[9] Profitability Metrics - The vehicle gross margin for Q4 2023 was 11.9%, compared to 6.8% in Q4 2022 and 11.0% in Q3 2023[3] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 7.5%, up from 3.9% in Q4 2022, primarily due to an increase in automotive gross margin[19] - The automotive gross margin for Q4 2023 reached 11.9%, compared to 6.8% in Q4 2022, driven by lower material costs[19] Expenses and Losses - In Q4 2023, the sales, general and administrative expenses were RMB 3.9727 billion (USD 559.5 million), an increase of 12.6% year-over-year and 10.1% quarter-over-quarter[21] - For the full year 2023, the sales, general and administrative expenses totaled RMB 12.8846 billion (USD 1.8148 billion), up 22.3% from the previous year[21] - The net loss for Q4 2023 was RMB 5.3677 billion (USD 756 million), a reduction of 7.2% year-over-year and an increase of 17.8% quarter-over-quarter[23] Cash and Assets - As of December 31, 2023, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits totaled RMB 57.3 billion (USD 8.1 billion)[5] - Total assets rose to RMB 117,383,202 (approximately USD 16,533,078) as of December 31, 2023, up from RMB 96,263,925 (approximately USD 13,646,000) as of December 31, 2022, indicating a growth of 22.0%[34] - The company reported a total current assets increase to RMB 70,380,233 (approximately USD 9,912,849) from RMB 59,149,752 (approximately USD 8,370,000), reflecting an increase of 19.0%[34] Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q4 2023 were RMB 3.9721 billion (USD 0.5595 billion), a 0.2% decrease year-over-year and a 30.7% increase from Q3 2023[20] - The company plans to continue investing in research and development to enhance its product offerings and technology advancements, although specific future projections were not detailed in the call[44] Future Outlook - The company expects vehicle deliveries in Q1 2024 to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year change of approximately -0.1% to +6.3%[26] - Total revenue for Q1 2024 is projected to be between RMB 10.499 billion (USD 1.479 billion) and RMB 11.087 billion (USD 1.562 billion), indicating a year-over-year change of approximately -1.7% to +3.8%[26] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its Battery as a Service (BaaS) and Autonomous Driving as a Service (ADaaS) offerings, which are expected to drive future growth[1] - The company aims to improve its vehicle production capacity and ensure timely delivery to meet customer demand, which is critical for maintaining market competitiveness[1] - The overall economic conditions in China and globally are being monitored closely, as they may impact future performance and strategic decisions[1]

Vehicle Deliveries - In Q4 2023, NIO delivered 50,045 vehicles, including 33,679 high-end smart electric SUVs and 16,366 high-end smart electric sedans, representing a 25.0% increase year-over-year but a 9.7% decrease quarter-over-quarter[2]. - NIO achieved a record delivery of 160,038 vehicles in 2023, leading the high-end electric vehicle market in China with an average transaction price above RMB 300,000[16]. - In January 2024, NIO delivered 10,055 vehicles, and in February 2024, delivered 8,132 vehicles, bringing the cumulative delivery total to 467,781 vehicles as of February 29, 2024[10]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2023 reached RMB 17.1032 billion (USD 2.4089 billion), a 6.5% increase compared to Q4 2022, but a 10.3% decrease from Q3 2023[4]. - For the full year 2023, total revenue was RMB 55.6179 billion (USD 7.8336 billion), a 12.9% increase from 2022[9]. - The full year gross profit was RMB 3.0518 billion (USD 429.8 million), a decrease of 40.7% compared to the previous year[8]. - The operating loss for 2023 was RMB 22.6552 billion (USD 3.1909 billion), an increase of 44.8% year-over-year[8]. - The net loss for Q4 2023 was RMB 5.3677 billion (USD 756 million), a reduction of 7.2% year-over-year and an increase of 17.8% quarter-over-quarter[23]. - For the full year 2023, the net loss was RMB 20.7198 billion (USD 2.9183 billion), compared to a net loss of RMB 14.4371 billion in 2022[24]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 1.2792 billion (USD 180.2 million), up 105.7% year-over-year, but down 16.0% quarter-over-quarter[4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 7.5%, compared to 3.9% in Q4 2022 and 8.0% in Q3 2023[5]. - The automotive gross margin for Q4 2023 reached 11.9%, up from 6.8% in Q4 2022 and 11.0% in Q3 2023[19]. - The adjusted net loss for Q4 2023 was RMB 4.8017 billion (USD 676.3 million), a 21.5% increase compared to Q3 2023[5]. - The full year adjusted net loss was RMB 18.3507 billion (USD 2.5846 billion), reflecting a 51.1% increase from the previous year[9]. Cash and Assets - As of December 31, 2023, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits totaled RMB 57.3 billion (USD 8.1 billion)[5]. - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 32.94 billion from RMB 19.89 billion, reflecting a growth of about 65% year-over-year[34]. - The total current assets rose to RMB 70.38 billion, up from RMB 59.15 billion, indicating an increase of approximately 19%[34]. - The total assets of NIO Group amounted to RMB 117.38 billion, an increase from RMB 96.26 billion as of December 31, 2022, representing a growth of approximately 22%[34]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q4 2023 were RMB 3.9721 billion (USD 0.5595 billion), a decrease of 0.2% year-over-year but an increase of 30.7% from Q3 2023[20]. - Research and development expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB 3,972,127, compared to RMB 3,980,578 in 2022, indicating a slight decrease of about 0.2%[36]. - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 13,431,399, up 24.3% from RMB 10,836,261 in 2022[38]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q1 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year change of approximately -0.1% to +6.3%[26]. - Total revenue for Q1 2024 is projected to be between RMB 10.499 billion (USD 1.479 billion) and RMB 11.087 billion (USD 1.562 billion), indicating a year-over-year change of approximately -1.7% to +3.8%[26]. - Future outlook includes continued investment in R&D and potential market expansion, although specific guidance was not provided in the earnings call[42][43]. Strategic Initiatives - NIO completed a strategic equity investment of USD 2.2 billion from CYVN Investments, increasing CYVN's ownership to approximately 20.1% of the company[12]. - The company has introduced new products and technologies, including BaaS and ADaaS, which are expected to enhance growth potential and market presence[1]. - NIO aims to expand its market presence and improve production capacity through strategic partnerships and technological advancements[1]. - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial metrics to provide a clearer understanding of its operational trends and future outlook[31].

IT之家 2 月 17 日消息，蔚来德国公司计划将蔚来 ET7 加入出租车业务，近期在汉堡的一次行业活动中，首款车型向公众展示。 目前，汉堡的道路上约有 3000 辆出租车，其中近 600 辆是电动汽车。未来，汉堡计划从 2025 年起只允许当地零排放车辆作为出租车。除汉堡外，蔚来 ET7 出租车已在柏林、法兰克福和慕尼黑上市。 蔚来德国总经理 Marius Hayler 称：“凭借其宽敞的内部空间和最先进的技术，蔚来 ET7 非常适合为乘客提供高质量的驾驶体验。得益于我们的电池更换系统，蔚来出租车也始终配备顶级电池，并且几乎可以全天候使用我们的换电系统，而无需长时间充电。” 汉堡交通和交通转型部运输业监察局局长 Dirk Ritter 表示：“我们正在推广零排放的交通，并在未来改造城市中的所有出租车。从 2025 年起，汉堡将只为当地零排放的出租车获得新许可。除其他事项外，快速提供合适的车辆非常重要，这就是为什么我们在出租车项目中对蔚来电动汽车非常感兴趣，尤其是出租车公司。” 据官方透露，当出租车公司购买配备长距离电池和全套设备的 ET7 车型以及电池租赁时，出租车公司将可以享受到 30% 的折扣。 其中， ...

早间重磅新闻速览 1、中美经济工作组举行第三次会议 2月5日至6日，中美经济工作组在京举行第三次会议。中美双方按照双方牵头人旧金山会晤达成的三点重要共识，就两国宏观经济形势及政策、二十国集团财金合作、发展中国家债务、产业政策等议题进行了深入、坦诚、务实、建设性的交流。中方就美对华加征关税、双向投资限制、制裁打压中方企业等表达了关切。 2、中国资产大涨！中概股指数狂飙近6%，蔚来、哔哩哔哩涨超12% A股市场迎久违大涨后，市场积极情绪传递至美股市场。隔夜美股纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨近6%，远远跑赢美股三大股指同时，创出日涨幅阶段新高；富时中国A50指数期货凌晨夜盘收涨0.49%；离岸、在岸人民币汇率双双走强，美元指数走低。 3、头部公募集体发声 暂停新增转融通证券出借规模 2月6日，易方达、广发、南方、华夏、富国等8家公募发出公告称，严格落实证监会关于融券业务的相关要求，暂停新增转融通证券出借规模，审慎稳妥推进存量转融通证券出借规模逐步了结，确保相关业务平稳运行。 财经日历 今日沪深两市无新股申购，有一只新股上市：成都华微(国内特种集成电路企业) 中国1月外汇储备数据今日将公布 机会提前看 梳理市场关注的投资机 ...

大公司： vivo与诺基亚签署5G专利交叉许可协议 36氪获悉，vivo宣布与诺基亚达成全球专利交叉许可协议，该协议涵盖双方在5G和其他蜂窝通信技术方面的标准必要专利。协议签署后，双方将结束在所有司法管辖区的所有未决诉讼。 京东集团：超2万名京东一线客服全员平均涨薪超30% 36氪获悉，京东集团宣布，自2024年2月1日起，超2万名京东一线客服员工实现全年平均薪酬上涨超过30%。 淘宝派发10亿新春红包，最高可得1888元 2月5日，淘宝宣布在春节期间为消费者派发10亿红包。据介绍，此次活动分为五波，贯穿春节全周期。用户打开淘宝输入“淘宝发发乐”即可参与，最高可得1888元。据了解，此次发发乐红包在玩法上也做了不少创新，一是将红包分享给好友，双方可获得相同红包金额；二是不用攒满就可使用红包，开出多少可用多少，既可以在淘宝天猫上购物，还能购买春节期间的度假套餐和电影票抵用券。 保利发展：1月，公司实现签约面积118.80万平方米，同比减少35.41% 36氪获悉，保利发展公告称，1月，公司实现签约面积118.80万平方米，同比减少35.41%；实现签约金额203.23亿元，同比减少31.21%。 Airwall ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2023 reached RMB 19.0666 billion (USD 2.6133 billion), an increase of 46.6% year-over-year and 117.4% quarter-over-quarter[4] - Automotive sales revenue for Q3 2023 was RMB 17.4089 billion (USD 2.3861 billion), up 45.9% year-over-year and 142.3% quarter-over-quarter[6] - Gross profit for Q3 2023 was RMB 1.5233 billion (USD 208.8 million), a decrease of 12.2% year-over-year but a significant increase of 1,650.9% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Net loss for Q3 2023 was RMB 4.5567 billion (USD 646.2 million), a 10.8% increase year-over-year and a 24.8% decrease quarter-over-quarter[5] - Total revenue for Q3 2023 was RMB 19.0666 billion (USD 2.6133 billion), up 46.6% year-over-year and 117.4% quarter-over-quarter[12] - Vehicle sales revenue in Q3 2023 reached RMB 17.4089 billion (USD 2.3861 billion), reflecting a 45.9% increase year-over-year and a 142.3% increase quarter-over-quarter[12] - The gross profit for NIO Group in Q3 2023 was RMB 1.52 billion, compared to RMB 1.74 billion in Q3 2022, showing a decrease of about 12.2%[30] - NIO Group's net loss for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 4.56 billion, compared to a net loss of RMB 4.11 billion for the same period in 2022, indicating an increase in losses of approximately 10.9%[30] Vehicle Deliveries - Vehicle deliveries in Q3 2023 amounted to 55,432 units, representing a 75.4% increase year-over-year and a 135.7% increase quarter-over-quarter[3] - In Q3 2023, NIO delivered 55,432 vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 75.4%, setting a new quarterly delivery record[11] - In October and November 2023, vehicle deliveries were 16,074 and 15,959 units respectively, bringing cumulative deliveries to 431,582 units by November 30, 2023[7] - The company expects vehicle deliveries for Q4 2023 to be between 47,000 and 49,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 17.3% to 22.3% compared to the same quarter in 2022[20] Cash and Investments - As of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits totaled RMB 45.2 billion (USD 6.2 billion)[5] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 24.08 billion as of September 30, 2023, from RMB 19.89 billion at the end of 2022, marking a growth of about 20.9%[28] - The company issued USD 575 million of convertible preferred bonds due in 2029 and 2030, with plans to use proceeds to strengthen the balance sheet and for general corporate purposes[8] - The company issued USD 1.15 billion in convertible senior notes in September and October 2023, strengthening its balance sheet[11] Operating Loss and Expenses - Operating loss for Q3 2023 was RMB 4.8439 billion (USD 683.9 million), an increase of 25.2% year-over-year but a decrease of 20.3% quarter-over-quarter[5] - Operating expenses totaled RMB 6.37 billion for Q3 2023, compared to RMB 5.61 billion in Q3 2022, indicating an increase of approximately 13.5%[30] - R&D expenses for Q3 2023 were RMB 3.0391 billion (USD 416.5 million), a 3.2% increase year-over-year but a 9.1% decrease quarter-over-quarter[15] - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses, which amounted to RMB 3.04 billion in Q3 2023, compared to RMB 2.94 billion in Q3 2022, reflecting a growth of about 3.4%[30] Assets and Liabilities - As of September 30, 2023, NIO Group's total assets increased to RMB 102.47 billion from RMB 96.26 billion as of December 31, 2022, representing a growth of approximately 6.3%[28] - The total liabilities of NIO Group rose to RMB 82.77 billion as of September 30, 2023, up from RMB 68.62 billion at the end of 2022, indicating an increase of about 20.5%[29] Future Outlook - Total revenue is projected to be between RMB 16.079 billion (approximately $2.204 billion) and RMB 16.701 billion (approximately $2.289 billion), reflecting a year-over-year growth of about 0.1% to 4.0% compared to the same quarter in 2022[20] - NIO aims to enhance its core technology and product development while optimizing organization and reducing costs[11] Company Strategy and Technology - The company is a pioneer in the high-end smart electric vehicle market, focusing on innovation in autonomous driving, digital technology, and battery technologies[23] - The product lineup includes several models such as the ES8, ES7, ES6, EC7, EC6, ET7, ET5, and ET5T, showcasing a diverse range of smart electric vehicles[23] - The company emphasizes its leading battery swapping technology and battery-as-a-service (BaaS) offerings as key competitive advantages[23] Conference and Communication - The management will hold an earnings conference call on December 5, 2023, at 7 AM EST, with a live stream available on the investor relations website[21] Financial Reporting and Risks - The company uses non-GAAP financial measures to assess its operating performance, including adjusted sales costs and adjusted net losses, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses[25] - The company acknowledges inherent risks and uncertainties in forward-looking statements regarding its business strategy and future performance[24] - The company encourages investors to review its financial data comprehensively rather than relying solely on non-GAAP financial indicators[25] Shareholder Information - The weighted average number of ordinary shares for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was 1,735,661,387, an increase from 1,640,001,909 in the same period last year[31]