Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fuhua (159309) experienced a decline of 2.83%, closing at 1.341 yuan with a trading volume of 26.056 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF showed mixed performance, with China National Petroleum down 1.42%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 1.12%, and Sinopec down 1.69%, while Intercontinental Oil & Gas rose by 4.07% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index return rate, managed by Huatai Fuhua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 37.83% since its inception on May 31, 2024, and a return of 19.76% over the past month [1]

高盛发表报告，认为国际运价仍有进一步上行空间，因受影子船队、受制裁船队相继退出市场或利用率 偏低影响，将使有效运力低于市场预期。该行预期中远海能将成为此轮运价上行的受益者，并假设委内 瑞拉的石油运输将由影子船队转向主流船队。该行将中远海能2026及2027年的净利润预测分别上调11% 与12%，以反映运费更高，上调港股目标价48%至16港元，上调A股目标价10%至18元，维持"买入"评 级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the net profit forecasts for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) by 11% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting higher freight rates, and increased the target price for its Hong Kong stock by 48% to HKD 16, while raising the target price for its A-shares (600026.SH) by 10% to RMB 18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][5] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that international freight rates still have further upside potential due to the exit of shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets from the market, which will result in effective capacity being lower than market expectations [1][5] - The firm anticipates that China Merchants Energy will benefit from this round of rising freight rates and assumes that oil transportation from Venezuela will shift from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets [1][5] Group 2 - In extreme scenarios, if sanctions on Russian or Iranian oil are fully lifted, it could further accelerate the exit of shadow fleet capacity, as non-sanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleets for transportation [1][5] - The shadow fleets are unlikely to return to mainstream or compliant fleets due to the generally older age of these vessels, increasing maintenance needs, and rising regulatory risks, which should lead to their dismantling [1][5] - According to data from Clarksons and S&P Global, currently, 18% and 16% of the total tanker capacity, measured by deadweight tonnage, belongs to shadow fleets and sanctioned fleets respectively [1][5]

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy - **Ticker**: 1138.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$67.7 billion / $8.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$88.5 billion / $11.3 billion - **Current Price**: HK$14.20 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$16.00 (Upside: 12.7%) [1][5] Industry Insights - **Tanker Market Dynamics**: The tanker market is expected to experience tighter supply due to the exit or low utilization of shadow or sanctioned capacity, which will drive freight rates higher than market expectations [1] - **Shadow Fleet Impact**: Approximately 18% of current total tanker capacity is classified as shadow or sanctioned fleet, which affects the overall supply-demand balance in the tanker market [2][17] - **Geopolitical Factors**: The analysis suggests that if sanctions on oil from Russia or Iran were lifted, it could lead to a significant exit of shadow fleet capacity, as unsanctioned oil would no longer require shadow fleet for transportation [1][19] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth for COSCO Shipping Energy is as follows: - 2024: Rmb 23,130.7 million - 2025: Rmb 25,363.1 million - 2026: Rmb 30,481.0 million - 2027: Rmb 30,653.4 million [5][15] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected EBITDA growth rates are: - 2024: Rmb 8,575.0 million - 2025: Rmb 9,757.3 million - 2026: Rmb 12,922.7 million - 2027: Rmb 13,024.5 million [5][15] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: Rmb 0.80 - 2025: Rmb 0.97 - 2026: Rmb 1.34 - 2027: Rmb 1.34 [5][15] Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 9.6 - 2025: 13.0 - 2026: 9.4 - 2027: 9.4 [11] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024: 0.9 - 2025: 1.4 - 2026: 1.2 - 2027: 1.2 [11] - **Dividend Yield**: - 2024: 5.6% - 2025: 3.7% - 2026: 5.3% - 2027: 5.3% [11] Strategic Outlook - **Freight Rate Sensitivity**: The company is expected to benefit from higher freight rates due to the transition of Venezuelan oil transportation from shadow fleet to mainstream fleet [1][17] - **Scenario Analysis**: - Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil could lead to a potential upside of 63% to the share price - Lifting sanctions on Russian oil could result in a 27% to 33% upside - A scenario where both sanctions are lifted could lead to a 94% to 102% upside [18] - **Downside Risks**: A potential downside of 10% to 6% exists if disruptions in the Red Sea are resolved, which could reduce shipping demand by 2% [18] Conclusion - COSCO Shipping Energy is positioned to capitalize on favorable market conditions driven by geopolitical factors and a tightening supply of tanker capacity. The financial outlook shows promising growth in revenue and earnings, supported by strategic shifts in oil transportation dynamics. The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on the potential for significant upside in share price under various scenarios.

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将中远海能(01138)2026及2027年的净利润预测分别上调11%与 12%，以反映运费更高，并升中远海能港股目标价48%至16港元，升中远海能(600026.SH)A股目标价 10%至18元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 该行分析显示，在极端情境下，若俄罗斯或伊朗石油的制裁完全解除，可能会进一步加速影子船队运力 的退出，因为不受制裁的石油不再需要影子船队进行运输。同时，影子船队亦不太可能回归主流或合规 船队，因该些船只一般船龄都过高，后续维护需求增加以及监管风险上升，理应被拆解。根据Clarksons 与标普全球的数据，以载重吨位计算，目前油轮总运力中有18%及16%分别属于影子船队及受制裁船 队。 该信息由智通财经网提供 高盛认为国际运价仍有进一步上行空间，因受影子船队、受制裁船队相继退出市场或利用率偏低影响， 将使有效运力低于市场预期。预期中远海能将成为此轮运价上行的受益者，并假设委内瑞拉的石油运输 将由影子船队转向主流船队。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能（600026）(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东亚银 行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月4日，中远海能(01138)股东将股票由耀才证券转入东 亚银行，转仓市值5.67亿港元，占比3.08%。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首 季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。予公 司目标价20.26港元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - A recent trade agreement between the US and India is expected to boost compliance oil transportation demand, as India will cease purchasing Russian oil and increase imports from the US [4] - Following the imposition of punitive tariffs by the US, India's imports of Russian oil have decreased significantly, with a total of 26 million tons imported from September 2025 to January 2026, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year decline [4] - The cessation of Russian oil imports by India is anticipated to further support compliance market freight rates, with potential increases in demand for oil from the Americas [4] - The current high demand in the foreign trade oil transportation sector presents an opportunity for oil transport companies to release performance potential, with expectations of rising freight rates due to upstream expansion and geopolitical events [4] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The shipping and port sector has shown a performance of -8% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2] Analyst Information - The report is authored by analyst Zhu Yubo, with contact information provided for further inquiries [3] Related Reports - The report references previous analyses on geopolitical events and oil transportation market opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a gain of 1.42% at 1.431 yuan on February 4 [1] - Major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, which rose by 2.01%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation by 1.98%, and Sinopec by 0.79% [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 41.01% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 14.47% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The article lists other notable stocks within the Oil ETF, including Jereh Group (up 0.98%), China Merchants Energy Shipping (up 1.56%), Guanghui Energy (up 1.30%), COSCO Shipping Energy (up 0.82%), Hengli Petrochemical (up 1.82%), Rongsheng Petrochemical (up 0.79%), and Intercontinental Oil and Gas (up 2.24%) [1]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查App显示，近日，中远海能（600026）发生工商变更，注册资本由约47.7亿 元增至约54.7亿元。 ...