摩根士丹利发表研究报告指出，始于2025年第四季度的航空业多年周期性改善，很可能在2026至2027年 获得动力，并受需求推动。投资者仓位和信心仍处于低位，但该行认为定价上涨将提振市场情绪，因此 将航空板块目标价平均上调42%，并将三大航空公司A股评级上调至"增持"。 大摩对中国国航（601111）(00753)H股目标价从8.11港元上调至10港元；中国东方航空股份(00670)H股 从4.31港元上调至8.10港元；中国南方航空（600029）股份(01055)H股从5.33港元上调至8.5港元。大摩 予内地三大航空公司H股评级均为"增持"。 该行预计每年客座率将改善1至2个百分点，意味着航空公司拥有更强的定价能力。对中国航空公司多年 供应驱动的上行周期持乐观看法，并且认为，如果定价表现强于预期，利润率有上行空间。该行预计 2026年客公里收益基本持平，随后在2027年提价3%至4%。对2027年的盈利预测较市场一致预期高出 17%。大摩估计，客公里收益每超出预期1个百分点，可能为三大航平均带来约15亿至17亿元人民币的 营业利润增长，因此对2026年的税前利润预测上调介乎14%至20%，并对2027年税 ...

中新社长沙2月9日电 (付敬懿)由泰国狮子蒙特里航空执飞的湖南长沙至泰国普吉航班，9日正式开通； 泰国狮子航空长沙至泰国曼谷航线加密至每日一班。至此，2026年春运期间，长沙黄花国际机场已新开 或加密近10条国际及地区航线，为旅客搭建便捷高效的"空中通道"。 据悉，为满足旅客出境旅游的多样化需求，湖南今年新增了长沙至缅甸仰光、泰国普吉、越南胡志明 市、印度尼西亚雅加达等国际航线，以及至香港地区航线，加密长沙至新加坡、马来西亚吉隆坡、泰国 曼谷航线。 随着中国签证政策的持续优化和免签范围扩大，入境旅游市场迎来新春热潮。今年春节期间，来自韩 国、马来西亚、越南、新加坡、菲律宾等周边国家的游客数量显著攀升，湖南正成为越来越多国际旅客 的出行选择。 2026年春运，中国南方航空在执飞长沙至内罗毕、首尔、吉隆坡、河内等航线基础上，新开长沙至新加 坡、胡志明市航线各每周三班。中国南方航空湖南分公司透露，节前一周，首尔、河内、胡志明市等至 长沙航线客座率均超70%，长沙至内罗毕航线客座率超85%，内罗毕、新加坡、吉隆坡至长沙航线客座 率超80%。 2月7日起，厦门航空新开长沙至曼谷、吉隆坡两条国际直飞航线，均计划在春运期间 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the duty-free sector, with Zhu Mian Group hitting the daily limit, China Duty Free rising over 5%, and Wangfujing and Haixia shares increasing by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Zhu Mian Group's stock rose by 9.96%, with a total market capitalization of 15.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 21.59% [2] - China Duty Free's stock increased by 5.52%, with a total market capitalization of 201.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 3.06% [2] - Wangfujing's stock rose by 2.69%, with a total market capitalization of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 4.19% [2] - Haixia shares increased by 2.29%, with a total market capitalization of 23.9 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 12.00% [2] - Hainan Development's stock rose by 1.94%, with a total market capitalization of 14.2 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 29.45% [2] - Southern Airlines' stock increased by 1.82%, with a total market capitalization of 151.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 4.49% [2] - Lingnan Holdings' stock rose by 1.34%, with a total market capitalization of 8.632 billion and a year-to-date increase of 7.42% [2]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

航空公司相关产业港股： 2月5日，空客在其最新的亚太地区《全球航空服务市场预测》报告中预测，到2044年，该地区的服务总 需求将以5.2%的复合年均增长率增长，市场价值预计将达到1387亿美元。这种持续增长将得益于航空 客运量和机队规模的扩大。未来20年，亚太地区将需要19560架新客机，占预测期内全球总需求的 46%。预计该地区仍将是全球增长最快的航空旅行市场，客运量年增长率为4.4%。高于3.6%的全球平均 水平。 据航旅纵横大数据显示，截至1月29日国内航线预订量已超716万张，日均机票预订量同比+16%。 银河证券表示，高频预订数据与官方运量预测形成交叉印证，反映民航出行需求旺盛，叠加航班供给稳 步释放，有望支撑春运民航客流与收益水平同步改善。 摩根士丹利称，将中国国航（601111）、中国东方航空和南方航空（600029）的A股评级上调至超配。 在需求顺风的推动下，始于去年四季度的复苏可能会在2026-2027年继续获得动能，尽管投资者仓位和 信心仍然较低，但潜在的价格上调将有助提振市场情绪。摩根大通对三大航H股及春秋航空（601021） 维持超配评级。 2026年春节假期再次延长，将保障探亲出游继 ...

摩根士丹利称，将中国国航、中国东方航空和南方航空的A股评级上调至超配。在需求顺风的推动下， 始于去年四季度的复苏可能会在2026-2027年继续获得动能，尽管投资者仓位和信心仍然较低，但潜在 的价格上调将有助提振市场情绪。摩根大通对三大航H股及春秋航空维持超配评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a significant turnaround after years of operational pressure, with major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines expected to return to profitability by 2025, indicating substantial improvement in the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines is the first among major airlines to achieve profitability, projecting a net profit of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of 1.696 billion yuan the previous year [2]. - Hainan Airlines is also expected to turn profitable, forecasting a net profit of 1.8 to 2.2 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 0.921 billion yuan in the prior year [2]. - China Eastern Airlines and Air China are not expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with projected net losses of 1.3 to 1.9 billion yuan and 1.3 to 1.9 billion yuan respectively, despite improvements in core operational metrics [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to see a record high in passenger volume, with an expected 95 million travelers, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The travel demand is driven by a longer holiday period, with new travel patterns emerging, including a trend of "returning home first, then traveling" [5][6]. - The aviation market is showing signs of "volume and price rising together," with a notable increase in flight operations and ticket prices during the early days of the Spring Festival travel period [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The civil aviation industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with measures being implemented to control excessive competition and improve profitability [7]. - The supply of new aircraft is limited, with a backlog of over 15,000 global aircraft orders and an extended delivery cycle of 6.8 years, which is expected to constrain supply in 2026 [8]. - International routes are becoming increasingly important for profitability, with airlines focusing on expanding international services to enhance revenue [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].