| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4133 | -0.09 | 4.26 | 0.45 | | 深证综指 | 2721 | -0.92 | 7.04 | 0.77 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | 0 | 0.36 | 13.54 | | 中盘指数 | -0.39 | 11.93 | 34.07 | | 小盘指数 | -1.66 | 10.48 | 26.75 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 行业(％) | | | | | 贵金属 | 10.24 | 46.38 | 97.93 | | 动物保健Ⅱ | 5.27 | 16.4 | 31.45 | | 工业金属 | 5.24 | 23.79 | 96.1 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 4.86 | 31.59 | 73.96 | | 饰品 | 4 ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，巨化股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司预计2025年度归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为35.40亿元到39.40亿元，与上年同期相比增加15.80亿元到19.80亿元，同比增长80%到 101%。公司2025年第四季度利润环比有所减少，主要系以下因素的综合影响：一是基于谨慎性原则， 公司根据《企业会计准则》及相关会计政策的要求，对全资子公司衢州巨化锦纶有限责任公司己内酰胺 等部分长期亏损且未来盈利能力存在重大不确定性的生产装置进行了审慎评估，并相应计提了资产减值 准备（详见《公司董事会九届二十三次会议决议公告》）。此项会计处理是基于资产当前状况及未来经 济利益的评估，遵循了会计准则的谨慎性要求，虽对当期利润造成一次性影响，但有利于公司资产质量 的夯实和未来财务表现的健康发展。二是受第四季度下游市场需求阶段性波动及行业季节性因素影响， 公司二代制冷剂产品F22、石化材料、基础化工产品价格环比下降，导致该部分产品的盈利贡献相应减 少。公司管理层始终致力于提升主营业务的核心竞争力和抗风险能力。目前，公司生产经营活动一切正 常，三代制冷剂主要产品价格稳中有升，战略发展项目稳步推进。未来， ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，巨化股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司已于2019年在衢州本埠建立 财务共享中心，主要采用了影刀RPA、通义千问AI等自动化、智能化工具。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

国海证券研报指出，2025年 巨化股份归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制冷剂景气持续。公司为制冷剂 全球龙头企业，是国内拥有第一至四代含氟制冷剂系列产品，同时拥有新型含氟冷媒（氢氟醚D系列、 全氟聚醚JHT系列）、碳氢制冷剂产品（3.5万吨/年）以及系列混配制冷剂的生产企业。公司制冷剂生 产配额优势明显，据2026年度氢氟碳化物生产、进口配额核发表，国家核定公司（含控股子公司） HCFC-22生产配额3.84万吨，占全国26.30%，其中内用配额占全国31.55%，为国内第一；HFCs生产配 额29.99万吨，占全国同类品种合计份额的37.58%。同时，公司第四代含氟制冷剂（HFOs）品种及有效 产能国内领先（现运营两套主流HFOs生产装置，产能约8000吨/年；计划通过新建+技术改造新增产能 近5万吨）。公司是全球氟制冷剂龙头企业，制冷剂生产配额领先，随着制冷剂价格上涨，公司有望充 分受益，快速发展。维持"买入"评级。 ...

国海证券研报指出，2025年巨化股份归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制冷剂景气持续。公司为制冷剂全 球龙头企业，是国内拥有第一至四代含氟制冷剂系列产品，同时拥有新型含氟冷媒（氢氟醚D系列、全 氟聚醚JHT系列）、碳氢制冷剂产品（3.5万吨/年）以及系列混配制冷剂的生产企业。公司制冷剂生产 配额优势明显，据2026年度氢氟碳化物生产、进口配额核发表，国家核定公司（含控股子公司）HCFC- 22生产配额3.84万吨，占全国26.30%，其中内用配额占全国31.55%，为国内第一；HFCs生产配额29.99 万吨，占全国同类品种合计份额的37.58%。同时，公司第四代含氟制冷剂（HFOs）品种及有效产能国 内领先（现运营两套主流HFOs生产装置，产能约8000吨/年；计划通过新建+技术改造新增产能近5万 吨）。公司是全球氟制冷剂龙头企业，制冷剂生产配额领先，随着制冷剂价格上涨，公司有望充分受 益，快速发展。维持"买入"评级。 ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出80.83万元，特大单买入7145.61万元，占比8.87%，卖出5997.46万元， 占比7.45%；大单买入1.84亿元，占比22.89%，卖出1.97亿元，占比24.42%。 巨化股份今年以来股价涨4.06%，近5个交易日涨2.02%，近20日涨4.60%，近60日涨10.81%。 1月26日，巨化股份盘中上涨2.15%，截至10:36，报39.98元/股，成交8.05亿元，换手率0.76%，总市值 1079.36亿元。 分红方面，巨化股份A股上市后累计派现64.59亿元。近三年，累计派现21.33亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，巨化股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股6450.90万股，相比上期减少2041.15万股。兴全合润混合A（163406）位居第三大流通股 东，持股4872.24万股，相比上期减少175.15万股。兴全合宜混合A（163417）位居第四大流通股东，持 股2522.52万股，相比上期增加27.31万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通股东，持股 2311.19万股，相比上期减少105. ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Huace Testing expects a net profit of 1.013-1.021 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%-11% [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 net profit of 201-209 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15%-20% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and international expansion, which will gradually release growth momentum [5] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - Major military groups in China have held annual meetings to set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and outline key tasks for 2026 [7] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasizes breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the development of commercial aerospace [8] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is advancing the C919 aircraft's certification and commercial operations, with growing interest from Southeast Asian countries [9] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Performance - The global cross-border e-commerce market is projected to reach 551.23 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034 [13] - Jihua Co. expects a net profit of 272-291 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 50%-60% year-on-year [13] - Huakai Yibai anticipates a net profit of 132-162 million yuan for 2025, with improved inventory management leading to a recovery in gross margin [13] Group 4: Coal Industry Trends - In Q4 2025, coal sector holdings in actively managed funds increased to 0.36%, indicating a low level of crowding and significant value [17] - The coal price is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand conditions, with a potential upward trend in the price center [19] - Major coal companies are initiating buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth and stability [20] Group 5: Banking Sector Performance - Industrial Bank expects a revenue growth of 0.24% and a net profit growth of 0.34% for 2025, with asset quality remaining stable [22] - The bank's asset scale is projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.57% [23] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.08%, with significant reductions in new non-performing loans in key sectors [23] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to acquire Dehua Chip, a leader in satellite energy systems, to enhance its capabilities in space photovoltaic technology [25] - The space photovoltaic market is expected to grow significantly, with Mingyang's revenue projected to reach 40.879 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [27] - The company aims to leverage its existing technologies to create synergies with Dehua Chip, enhancing its competitive position in the market [27] Group 7: Robotics Industry Developments - Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot Optimus by the end of next year, with ongoing testing to ensure reliability and safety [33] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025 [40] - Microsoft has launched its first robot-specific AI model, Rho-alpha, which enhances the adaptability and reliability of robots [41]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming key growth drivers. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is expected to expand rapidly, leading to a temporary oversupply and price decline. However, by 2025, no new capacity is anticipated, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is expected to maintain high growth [5][6] - The PTA/polyester filament industry is approaching a turning point, with capacity expansion cycles nearing their end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by improved external demand due to easing trade tensions [6] - Refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies that will reduce supply while demand remains stable, driven by market expansion in Southeast Asia and the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for significant growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products and the potential for bio-based materials to see explosive demand [8] - OLED technology is rapidly penetrating various markets, with government policies supporting the development of new display industries and accelerating the localization of key materials and equipment [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 4th in overall performance for the week of January 19-23, 2026, with a gain of 7.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.45 percentage points [5][20] - The top-performing sub-sectors included textile chemical products (13.10%), nitrogen fertilizers (10.58%), and other chemical raw materials (10.09%) [21] Key Company Dynamics - The top three gaining companies for the week were Jianghua Micro (46.41%), Jiuding New Materials (28.47%), and Hongbaoli (26.73%) [26] - The companies in focus for potential investment include KaiSai Biological, Huaheng Biological, and other leading firms in synthetic biology and electronic chemicals [8][11][32] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to establish a benchmark by 2027 across various sectors [35] - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas, maintaining high growth targets while addressing industry concerns [35]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年公司归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制 冷剂景气持续 ——巨化股份（600160）2025 年业绩预增点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨化股份 | | 4.4% | 9.9% | 55.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown resilience with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.73% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 7.29% this week [13][16]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, chlor-alkali, and dyeing chemicals have experienced significant price increases, with soda ash rising by 13.3% [16]. - The report highlights the competitive strength of domestic tire manufacturers and suggests focusing on companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire as potential growth opportunities [4]. - The polyurethane project by Huide Technology, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, has commenced, indicating strategic growth in the new materials sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the tightening supply-demand dynamics in the phosphate chemical sector due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [13]. - The overall performance of the chemical sector is positive, with notable gains in various sub-industries [16]. Key Sub-Industry Developments - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI in East China is reported at 17,600 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decline of 1.12% [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong is at 62.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.70% [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices are at 1,757.45 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [63]. - **Vitamins**: The price of Vitamin A is reported at 61.5 RMB/kg, down 1.6% week-on-week [79]. Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are positioned strongly, with a focus on growth stocks [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies are expected to tighten the market [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in Vitamin A and E are noted, creating potential investment opportunities [4].