丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% research.95579.com 1 公司研究丨点评报告丨巨化股份（600160.SH） [Table_Title] 2024 年业绩同比大幅增长，制冷剂涨价有望 持续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现收入 244.6 亿元（同比+18.4%），实现归属净利 润 19.6 亿元（同比+107.7%），实现扣非净利润 19.0 亿元（+131.4%）。其中 Q4 单季度实现 营业收入 65.6 亿元（同比+41.2%，环比+12.5%），实现归属净利润 7.0 亿元（同比+256.8%， 环比+65.8%），实现扣非净利润 7.2 亿元（同比+438.4%，环比+84.2%）。2024 年度公司现金 分红（含税）总额 6.21 亿元，占 2024 年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例为 31.7%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 巨化股份（600160.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 30 日 巨化股份 (600160) ——制冷剂高景气带动盈利能力大幅增长，旺季来临价格 和盈利或将加速上行 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,462 | 5,800 | 27,858 | 30,820 | 33,822 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.4 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,960 | 809 | 4,163 | 5,435 | 7,123 | | 同比增长率（%） | 107.7 | 160.6 | 112.4 | 30.6 | 31.1 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 2.64 | | 毛利率（%） | 17.5 | 28.4 | 26.1 | 29.6 | 32.9 | | ROE（%） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in performance, benefiting from the improved market conditions for refrigerants [1] - The revenue for 2024 reached 24.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.556 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.52% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2024 were the expansion of the consolidated reporting scope, increased production, and higher prices. The three main business segments—refrigerants, petrochemical materials, and basic chemical products—continued to contribute significantly [2] - Refrigerant production for the year was 591,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.12%, with external sales of 353,000 tons, up 22.61% [2] - Petrochemical materials production was 607,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.14%, with external sales of 522,100 tons, up 45.70% [2] - Basic chemical products and others produced 3.0402 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.90%, with external sales of 1.7852 million tons, up 12.03% [2] Cost Management - The company reduced its sales expense ratio primarily due to decreased leasing costs. The sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratios changed by -0.18%/+0.06%/+0.28%/-0.54% year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the production of new projects and enhancing its global HFCs quota advantage to establish a leading position in the refrigerant market. It has successfully completed the acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical, integrating its annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of HFCs and related facilities [4] - The company has also added new products in fine chemicals, significantly increasing the business proportion of fluorinated refrigerants and fine chemical products [4] - The annual production capacity of 85,700 tons of organic alcohol has been successfully put into operation, steadily increasing the domestic market share of organic alcohol products [4] Profit Forecast - The company’s profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 projected at 3.714 billion, 4.919 billion, and 6.050 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.5, 14.0, and 11.4 times for the respective years [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, particularly benefiting from the ongoing upcycle in refrigerants, with significant growth expected in the coming years [7]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 29.36 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.51 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 3.30 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a recovery with 18% growth in 2024 [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.6 in 2023 to 20.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [15]. Market Position - The company has solidified its market position as a leading player in the fluorochemical sector, particularly in the production of fluorinated refrigerants and chlorinated raw materials, with a global leadership status [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant increase in sales and production across key product lines, particularly in refrigerants, where average prices rose over 50% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 160.64%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [3]. - The average price of refrigerant products increased by 58.08% compared to the same period last year, contributing to the company's profitability [3]. - The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants in Q2 2025, with long-term contracts for R32 and R410a rising by 14.77% and 14.42% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 58.00 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.09 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 15.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.45 percentage points [3]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 28.42%, up by 13.67 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 1.41 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times at the current stock price [4]. - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 24.46 billion yuan, 2025E at 25.47 billion yuan, 2026E at 27.81 billion yuan, and 2027E at 30.61 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by the high demand for refrigerants, with a year-on-year growth of 161% [1] - The refrigerant market is expected to remain strong, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 41 billion, 53 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 28.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.7 percentage points [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.52 RMB, with a projected growth in EPS for the following years [5] Market Performance - The average price of refrigerants has increased, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by 9%, 13%, 7%, and 11% respectively since the beginning of the year [4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 68.47 billion RMB, with a target price set at 31.92 RMB [9] Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a year-on-year sales increase of 4%, despite a seasonal decline in Q1 [2] - The fluoropolymer segment faced temporary pressure, with a year-on-year sales decline of 7% [2] - The basic chemical products segment benefited from improved caustic soda prices, leading to a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a gradual emergence of a main bullish market [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.128 billion, 7.285 billion, and 8.535 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.90, 2.70, and 3.16 yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: fluorochemical raw materials (326 million yuan, +26.90%), refrigerants (2.618 billion yuan, +64.63%), and other segments [6] - The average price of refrigerants in Q1 2025 increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 58.08% to 37,504 yuan/ton [6] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 20.655 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 28.642 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Market Trends - The report highlights a continuous increase in air conditioning production in China, with expected growth rates of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% from May to July 2025 [7] - The demand for air conditioning in overseas markets is also strong, with significant sales increases reported by major manufacturers [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the accuracy and completeness of its quarterly report, ensuring no false statements or significant omissions exist, with legal responsibility assumed by the board and management [2][3]. Financial Data - The quarterly financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 are unaudited, with the company confirming that there were no profits from mergers under common control in the current or previous periods [3][6]. - The financial reports include the consolidated balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement for the period from January to March 2025, all prepared in Renminbi [5][6]. Shareholder Information - The company provides details on the total number of ordinary shareholders and the top ten shareholders, although specific figures are not disclosed in the provided documents [4][5]. Other Important Information - There are no additional significant reminders or operational updates regarding the company's performance during the reporting period [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a gradual emergence of a main bullish market [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.128 billion, 7.285 billion, and 8.535 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.90, 2.70, and 3.16 yuan [5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from various segments included 3.26 billion yuan from fluorochemical raw materials, 26.18 billion yuan from refrigerants, and 4.20 billion yuan from fluoropolymer materials, with refrigerant sales volume at 69,800 tons, up 4.14% year-on-year [6] - The average price of refrigerants in Q1 2025 was 37,504 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.08% [6] - The company’s financial summary shows projected revenues increasing from 20.655 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.297 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to rise from 944 million yuan to 8.535 billion yuan over the same period [8] Market Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic air conditioning production, with expected growth rates of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% from May to July 2025 [7] - International demand for air conditioning is also strong, with notable sales increases reported by major manufacturers [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 巨化股份 (Juhua Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Performance - The number of visitors at the 2025 Refrigeration Exhibition has increased, indicating strong domestic and foreign demand, which is expected to drive company performance growth this year [2][4] - The Chinese air conditioning industry benefits from domestic economic recovery, global warming, and the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant export potential, especially in markets with low air conditioning penetration like India [2][7] Product Development and Opportunities - The fourth-generation refrigerants are maturing, with new projects in Gansu signaling a large release of domestic capacity that meets environmental standards and market demand, presenting growth opportunities for related companies [2][10] - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated materials market creates opportunities for the fluorinated refrigerant market, with Juhua establishing a joint venture for commercial promotion and focusing on semiconductor fluids and high-end fluorinated oils [2][28] Regulatory Environment - The national quota management mechanism requires a 10% reduction in application volume by 2029, necessitating strict control of production quotas while considering domestic and international market demands and environmental requirements [2][15] Market Trends and Insights - Genuine market research should focus on current market demands and trends, such as transparent initial installation market data, increasing production volumes, and the impact of weather on consumer markets, which may indicate strong annual performance for companies like Juhua [2][16] - The air conditioning industry faces challenges from a declining real estate market but also has significant export potential due to the Belt and Road Initiative and increasing demand from global warming [2][8] Future Projections - The industry is expected to see a significant increase in fourth-generation refrigerant production capacity, with a projected capacity of 35,000 tons by 2029 [2][11] - Companies must consider long-term planning and adapt to technological changes while maintaining current operations and focusing on innovation and patent development to secure competitive advantages [2][20] Price Dynamics - The price fluctuations in the refrigerant market are primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases expected in 2025 due to high demand and supply shortages [2][21][22] Strategic Planning - Juhua has a clear strategic plan for R&D and innovation, focusing on fluorinated materials and new refrigerants, while also addressing potential patent restrictions and ensuring a competitive edge through technological advancements [2][29][30] Industry Competitiveness - The Chinese chemical industry has made significant progress from a "copying" model to one of independent innovation, with the potential to surpass international leaders in certain areas through technology introduction and self-research [2][31] Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 is expected to be stable, with positive export conditions and a focus on safety and industry realities, supporting future growth [2][32]