Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

摩根大通 将 兖矿能源 A股评级上调至中性。 ...

摩根大通将兖矿能源A股评级上调至中性。 ...

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 事件点评 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资 ...

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能 ...

国盛证券发布研报称，印尼政府计划在2026年通过一套"组合拳"政策，在煤炭价格下行周期中主动调控 供给以支撑煤价。印尼作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，其主动大幅减产将成为扭转市场平衡的关键力量。 此举将直接削减国际市场货源，有助于消化全球高企的库存，并可能催化煤炭价格快速反弹。此外，在 主产国供应收紧预期下，市场信心亦有望得到提振，有望对国际煤炭价格提供有力支撑，明显改善主要 煤炭企业盈利水平。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 印尼：25年产量下降约5.5%，苏岛产量占15.3% 2025年印尼煤炭产量预计为7.9亿吨，低于2024年的8.36亿吨，同比下降约5.5%。2025年南苏门答腊煤 炭产量1.2074亿吨，占比约15.3%。苏门答腊岛部分矿区地处偏远，缺乏深水港口，煤炭外运依赖成本 较高的公路或河运，物流瓶颈突出。南苏门答腊省政府已颁布政令，自2026年1月起禁止所有运煤卡车 在公共道路上行驶，预计将导致年产能减少约1000万吨。 苏门答腊岛煤炭产区在产量贡献、生产条件和成本控制上均处于劣势。主动引导其高成本、低效率的产 能有序优化，是推动印尼煤炭行业高质量发展的理性选择。 印尼：全球第一大煤炭出口国，25年出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the industry rating to "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in coal production, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, which is expected to exceed market expectations [2][3] - The production quota for 2026 is set at approximately 600 million tons, a substantial decrease from the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025, with core miners facing reductions of 40%-70% [2] - The suspension of spot exports is anticipated to create a supply gap in the global thermal coal market, benefiting international coal prices, particularly for low-calorific thermal coal, which is Indonesia's main export variety [3] Summary by Sections Industry Events - Indonesian miners have halted spot coal exports due to a government-imposed production cut, which has raised concerns about potential layoffs and mine closures [1] - The reduction in coal production quotas is expected to reshape trade patterns, with a quick recovery of exports being unlikely unless the government relaxes its production cut requirements [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising overseas coal prices could boost domestic coal price expectations, leading to an upgrade in the industry rating [3] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Shanxi Coal International are expected to benefit from this situation [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the impact of Indonesia's coal export policy adjustments on global and Chinese coal markets [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Indonesia's Export Policy Changes**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its coal production quota for 2026, leading to an expected decrease in export volume by 90 million tons, primarily affecting the spot market while long-term contracts remain largely unaffected [1][4]. - **Impact on Small vs. Large Miners**: Smaller miners will face greater production pressure due to the new quotas, while large coal companies are less affected due to their long-term contracts [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: The anticipated supply contraction in the global thermal coal market, combined with improving demand, is expected to drive prices up. If Indonesia strictly enforces its export limits, coal prices could rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][9]. - **Profitability of Major Companies**: Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿) are projected to achieve significant profits, with estimates of 12 billion RMB in main business profits at a price of 750 RMB/ton, potentially reaching 16 billion RMB if prices rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][10]. - **China's Market Reaction**: A reduction of 40 million tons in Indonesian exports could lead to a price increase of approximately 100 RMB/ton in China, indicating a 15% upside potential from current prices [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high market share and growth potential, such as Yanzhou, China Coal Energy, and Shenhua, while also considering companies that are sensitive to price changes [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Market Dynamics**: The overall trend indicates a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support higher prices in the coal market [8][9]. - **Government Revenue Considerations**: Indonesia's government aims to increase fiscal revenue through these export restrictions, and future policy adjustments will depend on the acceptance of price increases by downstream demand [7][8]. - **Potential for Future Adjustments**: The likelihood of policy changes post-Ramadan remains uncertain, with expectations that coal prices may strengthen in the first quarter [6][8]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Current valuations for companies like Yanzhou suggest significant investment potential, with projected earnings growth and a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry's future, particularly in light of Indonesia's export policies and their implications for market dynamics and investment strategies.