Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The metal bull market is expected to continue, with significant price increases across various metal categories in 2025 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process, which may extend the current commodity supercycle [6][10] Price Performance by Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is projected to rise 57% to 971 CNY/gram, and silver is expected to increase by 129% to 17.1 CNY/gram [6] - Industrial Metals: Copper is forecasted to increase by 34% to 99,000 CNY/ton, aluminum by 14% to 23,000 CNY/ton, lead by 3% to 17,000 CNY/ton, and zinc is expected to decrease by 10% to 23,000 CNY/ton [6] - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to rise by 58% to 119,000 CNY/ton, and electrolytic nickel by 10% to 138,000 CNY/ton [6] - Strategic Metals: Neodymium oxide is projected to increase by 52% to 610,000 CNY/ton, and tungsten concentrate by 218% to 455,000 CNY/ton [6] Investment Focus - Key investment opportunities include lithium companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Salt Lake Industry; cobalt companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; and various gold, copper, aluminum, and rare earth companies [6] Metal Price Changes in Q4 2025 - Lithium carbonate averaged 80,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 95% [7] - Gold averaged 951 CNY/gram, with a year-on-year increase of 54% [7] - Copper averaged 89,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [7] Copper Market Insights - The average LME copper price for 2025 is projected to be around 10,000 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - The report highlights the impact of the declining US dollar index and geopolitical tensions on copper prices [10] Aluminum Market Insights - The average price of A00 aluminum is expected to reach 20,700 CNY/ton in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [22] - The report notes that aluminum prices are driven by strong downstream demand and supportive policies [22] Energy Metals Insights - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to be 75,921 CNY/ton for 2025, with a significant increase in Q4 [33] - Nickel and cobalt prices are also expected to remain strong, with electrolytic nickel averaging 124,100 CNY/ton [33] Strategic Metals Insights - The report indicates that prices for rare earths and tungsten are on the rise, with neodymium oxide expected to average 55.6 million CNY/ton in Q4 2025 [39] - The strategic importance of these metals is emphasized in the context of global geopolitical dynamics [40]

Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects that the MSCI China Materials Index will outperform the MSCI China Index by 65 percentage points in 2025, driven by supply dynamics [1] - The index is expected to continue its outperformance in 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased merger activities [1] - The preference order for the Chinese basic materials industry in 2026 is copper/gold, aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [3] Company Performance - China Hongqiao's rating is maintained at "Overweight," with the target price raised from HKD 34 to HKD 40, citing its integrated model as a cost advantage [1][4] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a top pick for 2026 due to its exposure to copper and gold [4] - Jiangxi Copper's rating is upgraded to "Neutral," despite a recent stock price increase of over 40% [4] - Baosteel's rating is downgraded to "Neutral," while Angang Steel's rating is downgraded to "Underweight" due to expected declines in steel profit margins [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions include maintenance at South32's Mozal aluminum smelter and a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine, which is expected to reduce copper supply by 77,000 tons [2] - The lithium market is anticipated to tighten due to strong energy storage demand, with more supply expected to come online in the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs, leading to a surge in related A-share market stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Sichuan Gold saw a 10% increase, reaching a market capitalization of 14.5 billion [2] - Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology rose by over 8%, with market capitalizations of 30.5 billion and 11.3 billion respectively [2] - Jiangxi Copper increased by over 7%, with a total market value of 222.1 billion [2] - Zhongjin Lingnan and Zhuhai Group both experienced gains of over 6% [2] - Other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Shengtu Mining, and Zhaojin Gold saw increases of over 4% [1][2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot gold prices reached 4,643 USD per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - Spot silver prices surpassed 93 USD per ounce, also setting a new record [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper mining stocks in Hong Kong have seen significant gains, driven by a surge in copper prices to historical highs and concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports by the Trump administration [1] - On January 14, copper prices reached an all-time high, prompting traders to expedite shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs could be implemented, which may lead to supply shortages in other regions [1] - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment related to resource competition is significantly impacting current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term enthusiasm does not dissipate, copper prices may remain high and volatile [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - WanGuo Gold Group increased by 8.82% to 12.590 - Jiangxi Copper Co. rose by 4.36% to 48.320 - Minmetals Resources gained 3.93% to 10.050 - China Gold International increased by 3.77% to 189.800 - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. rose by 2.96% to 22.920 - China Nonferrous Mining Corporation increased by 2.69% to 16.400 - 34th Year Salary rose by 0.74% to 41.100 [2]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with spot gold hitting $4,643 per ounce and spot silver surpassing $93 per ounce [1] - A-share market related concept stocks saw significant gains, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit, and Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, Jiangxi Copper, and others also experiencing substantial increases [1] - The stock performance of various companies included Sichuan Gold up 10%, Hunan Silver up 8.87%, and Jiangxi Copper up 7.27%, among others [2] Group 2 - Total market capitalization for Sichuan Gold is 14.5 billion, while Hunan Silver stands at 30.5 billion [2] - Year-to-date performance shows Hunan Silver with a 56.07% increase, Xiaocheng Technology at 36.20%, and Jiangxi Copper at 16.81% [2] - Other notable companies include Zhongjin Lingnan with a market cap of 31.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.83% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that copper mining stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing significant gains, with several companies reaching new all-time highs due to rising copper prices and market concerns over potential tariffs on copper imports by the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - On January 14, copper prices reached a historical high, driven by fears that the Trump administration may expand the range of copper import tariffs, prompting traders to accelerate shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs are implemented [1] - The following companies saw notable stock price increases: - WanGuo Gold Group rose by 8.82% to 12.590 - Jiangxi Copper Co. increased by 4.36% to 48.320 - Minmetals Resources gained 3.93% to 10.050 - China Gold International rose by 3.77% to 189.800 - Luoyang Molybdenum increased by 2.96% to 22.920 - China Nonferrous Mining rose by 2.69% to 16.400 - 34th Year Salary increased by 0.74% to 41.100 [2] Group 3 - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment regarding resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term enthusiasm does not dissipate, copper prices may remain high and volatile [1]

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector experienced a rise of 1.18% on January 14, with Xingye Silver Tin leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Industrial Metal Sector Performance - Xingye Silver Tin (000426) closed at 50.38, up 7.74% with a trading volume of 1.01 million shares and a transaction value of 50.13 billion [1] - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) closed at 7.05, up 7.63% with a trading volume of 4.97 million shares and a transaction value of 34.46 billion [1] - Shengda Resources (000603) closed at 40.92, up 6.23% with a trading volume of 482,300 shares and a transaction value of 19.37 billion [1] - Xibu Mining (601168) closed at 30.06, up 5.77% with a trading volume of 1.09 million shares and a transaction value of 32.84 billion [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 59.80, up 4.53% with a trading volume of 971,200 shares and a transaction value of 57.89 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 2.12 billion from main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Yuguang Jin Lead (600531) was 297 million, accounting for 14.47% of its total [3] - Yunnan Copper (000878) had a net inflow of 187 million from main funds, representing 5.26% [3] - The net inflow for North Copper (000737) was 145 million, accounting for 5.89% [3]

Group 1 - Copper stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals rising by 10.91% to HKD 0.183, Jiangxi Copper up by 3.29% to HKD 47.06, Zijin Mining increasing by 1.74% to HKD 40.9, and China Nonferrous Mining rising by 1.59% to HKD 15.95 [1] - On January 14, copper prices reached an all-time high, driven by concerns over the potential expansion of copper import tariffs by the Trump administration, prompting traders to accelerate copper shipments to the U.S. before new tariffs are implemented, which may lead to supply shortages in other regions [1] - Bohai Securities indicated that market sentiment related to resource competition significantly impacts current copper prices, suggesting that if short-term sentiment remains high, copper prices may continue to fluctuate at elevated levels [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities released a report stating that in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage [1] - The report also noted that copper smelting profits are expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" trend, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a year-on-year increase in output and a favorable investment outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.99 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of these metals totaled 74.474 million tons, showing an overall increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - The report mentions several key companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, including Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), China Aluminum (601600), Northern Rare Earth (600111), Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Chihong Zn & Ge (600497), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Western Mining (601168), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [1]. Group 3: Research and Consulting - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

Group 1 - Domestic copper and aluminum futures prices have risen significantly as of January 14, 2026, indicating a positive trend in the industrial metals market [1] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) closely tracks the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes leading companies in copper, aluminum, and rare earths, attracting substantial capital inflows [1][3] - The fund experienced a net inflow of 250 million on January 13, with a total of 1.825 billion in net inflows over the past five trading days, and nearly 2.7 billion in the last ten days [1] Group 2 - The CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index comprises 30 leading companies in the industrial nonferrous metals sector, with copper (34.4%), aluminum (21.8%), and rare earths (13.6%) making up nearly 70% of the index as of January 9 [5] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 56.18% of the index [7] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) is the only ETF product tracking the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, providing investors with an efficient solution to invest in this sector [7]