证券代码：600486 证券简称：扬农化工 公告编号：2025-033 江苏扬农化工股份有限公司 2025年半年度权益分派实施公告 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.240元 相关日期 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/9/29 | － | 2025/9/30 | 2025/9/30 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 26 日的2024年年度股东大会授权，并经 2025 年 8 月 20 日召开的第八届董事会第二十八次会议审议通过。 二、 分配方案 1. 发放年度：2025年半年度 2. 分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. ...

Group 1: Guangdong Hongda (002683.SZ) - The company is a leader in the civil explosives industry, with growth rates exceeding the industry average, and military business is poised for expansion [7][8] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.196 billion, 1.415 billion, and 1.772 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 47.2 yuan based on a 30x PE for 2025, rated as "Accumulate" [7][8] - Revenue from the domestic regions of Northwest, Southwest, and North China for 2024 is expected to be 2.69 billion, 1.14 billion, and 2.34 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [8] Group 2: Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH) - The company is positioned as a leader in the pesticide industry, benefiting from an upward trend in industry conditions and a recovery in the market [11][12] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 11.484 billion, 12.325 billion, and 13.536 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.443 billion, 1.654 billion, and 1.884 billion yuan, respectively, rated as "Accumulate" [11][12] - The company is expected to transition from a generic pesticide manufacturer to a CDMO for innovative drugs, enhancing its growth potential [12] Group 3: China Communications Construction Company (601800.SH) - The company holds a leading position in transportation infrastructure and is expected to benefit from increased domestic infrastructure projects and international expansion [14][15] - The company is the largest international engineering contractor in China, with a strong historical presence in overseas markets, contributing to growth [14][15] - A dividend plan has been announced, ensuring stable returns for investors, with a target price of 11.78 yuan based on an 8x PE for 2025, rated as "Buy" [14][15] Group 4: Xinzhou Bang (300037.SZ) - The company is focused on a comprehensive layout in the lithium battery and fluorochemical sectors, with clear growth in demand for fluorochemicals [18][19] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.130 billion, 1.501 billion, and 1.859 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth rates [18][19] - The company is enhancing its vertical integration and global layout, with ongoing projects in Malaysia and the US expected to boost profitability [18][19] Group 5: Haian Home (600398.SH) - The main brand has shown improvement, with revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 11.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73% [21][22] - The company is expanding its direct sales while reducing franchise operations, with a focus on new retail formats [21][22] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.421 billion, 2.700 billion, and 2.947 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.2%, 11.5%, and 9.1% respectively, rated as "Buy" [24] Group 6: Xtep International (01368.HK) - The main brand has shown steady growth, with revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 6.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [26][27] - The company is focusing on the running segment, with strong performance in its professional sports line [26][27] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.379 billion, 1.516 billion, and 1.664 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.3%, 9.9%, and 9.8% respectively, rated as "Buy" [28] Group 7: Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported total revenue of 16.743 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45% [30][31] - International business showed resilience with revenue of 8.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.39%, while domestic revenue declined significantly [30][31] - The company plans to distribute a total of 3.298 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2025, representing 65.06% of its net profit for the first half of the year [31]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 1.98% on September 18, with LuHua Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - BaiAo Chemical (603360) with a closing price of 25.43, up 2.21% on a trading volume of 251,300 shares and a turnover of 644 million yuan [1] - Jinzhengda (002470) closed at 1.93, up 1.58% with a trading volume of 1,711,800 shares and a turnover of 333 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - LuHua Technology (600691) which fell by 5.16% to a closing price of 2.94, with a trading volume of 1,250,400 shares and a turnover of 376 million yuan [2] - Dongfang Tower (002545) decreased by 4.94% to 13.29, with a trading volume of 502,100 shares and a turnover of 673 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 962 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 539 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - BaTian Co. (002170) had a net inflow of 47.74 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 12.90% of its trading volume [3] - New安股份 (600596) experienced a net inflow of 16.36 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 5.54% of its trading volume [3] - In contrast, 富邦科技 (300387) saw a net outflow of 15.66 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the chemical industry is approaching the end of its current cycle, with a focus on demand recovery in 2024, particularly in infrastructure and exports, while the real estate cycle continues to decline [1][4] - From the demand side, infrastructure and export are expected to remain robust in 2024, with consumption showing resilience after two years of recovery [1][3] - On the supply side, global chemical capital growth is projected to turn negative in 2024, while domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline in growth, nearing a bottom by Q2 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The report outlines various industry indicators, including valuation metrics, price indices, supply-side metrics, import/export contributions, downstream industry performance, and global macroeconomic indicators [2] - Specific recommendations for investment opportunities include sectors such as refrigerants, phosphates, amino acids, and organic silicon, with suggested companies for each sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing global trade dynamics, focusing on both internal production capabilities and external market opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.00% and a year-to-date increase of 26.65% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yangnong Chemical reported revenue of 6.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million yuan, up 5.60% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.735 billion yuan, with 1.04 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.01% to 18,100, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.40% to 22,271 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 754,800 shares to 16.2928 million shares [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on Agricultural Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The agricultural chemical industry exhibits a cyclical pattern lasting approximately five to six years, driven by capital expenditure and demand fluctuations. Currently, the industry is at the end of a downturn cycle that began in Q3 2022 and is expected to conclude by Q2 2025, lasting nearly three years [2][7][11]. Key Points and Arguments - **Signs of Recovery**: The industry is showing signs of reversal, with prices hitting a ten-year low and some raw material price indices already reversing. In Q2 2025, China's pesticide formulation exports significantly improved after ten consecutive quarters of decline, particularly in herbicides, indicating a potential rise in industry prosperity [2][8]. - **Inventory Dynamics**: Inventory replenishment and destocking significantly impact pesticide demand. During the replenishment phase, procurement demand can reach 130% of normal levels, while during destocking, it may drop to 70%. This indicates that replenishment is a signal of industry prosperity rather than a core driving factor [9]. - **Supply-Side Reform**: The number of pesticide production enterprises in China has decreased to approximately 1,600, with 50% not entering chemical parks, indicating effective supply-side reforms. From 2021 to 2023, the new raw material production capacity added was limited, resulting in minimal impact on market supply [10][12]. Market Outlook - **Future Prospects**: The market outlook for the next few years is optimistic, with various reversal signals emerging, including price recovery, improved export data, and rising U.S. inventories. Continued domestic policy support for supply-side reforms is expected to further optimize the industry structure, leading to a new upward cycle in the agricultural chemical industry [11][12]. Company-Specific Insights - **Yangnong Chemical**: Recognized as a leading platform company in pesticide innovation, Yangnong has the capability to independently screen and modify chemical active compounds. The company has several innovative products with annual sales nearing 100 million yuan. In 2024, Yangnong is expected to account for three out of six domestically created products with annual sales exceeding 100 million yuan [3][19]. - **Runfeng Co.**: As the largest export-oriented formulation company in China, Runfeng's business model relies heavily on overseas registration certificates, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge. The company is experiencing rapid growth in Europe, the U.S., and Africa, with projections for net profits of 1.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.7 billion yuan in 2027 [20][21]. Additional Important Content - **Global Agricultural Giants' Outlook**: Major overseas agricultural companies like Corteva and Bayer are optimistic about their performance in the first half of 2025, raising their annual guidance. BASF noted significant recovery in herbicides, with strong performance in North America, South America, and Europe, indicating a comprehensive upward trend in the agricultural chemical industry [15][16]. - **Glycine Price Trends**: Glycine, as the largest raw material, saw its operating rate drop from 90% to 50% during the downturn but has since recovered to around 80%. Prices have been rising since April 2025, with inventory levels decreasing rapidly, suggesting a positive trend for the future [14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments within the agricultural chemical industry and specific companies, highlighting the cyclical nature of the market and the emerging signs of recovery.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, Sinopec, Ju Hua, Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun, Dao Tong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as Epoxy Chloropropane (up 10.00%), Synthetic Ammonia (up 4.35%), and others, while products like Urea and Sulfur experienced notable declines [4][5][21]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and fluctuating international oil prices are influencing market dynamics, with a recommendation to focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks [6][22]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [23]. Summary by Sections Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in Epoxy Chloropropane (10.00%), Sulfur (4.59%), and Synthetic Ammonia (4.35), while Urea saw a decrease of 8.47% [4][5][21]. - The report notes that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across different sub-sectors [22][23]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as Glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [23]. - It highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sub-products, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Xin Yang Feng, and others for their stable demand [23]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, with Brent crude oil priced at $66.99 per barrel and WTI at $62.69, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [6][24]. - It anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize between $65 and $70, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [6][24].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous expansion of crop planting area in China is driving the growth of the herbicide market, with increasing demand for long-lasting herbicides in non-agricultural sectors such as railways and industrial parks, leading companies to develop environmentally friendly formulations with a duration of over six months [1][9]. Summary by Sections Overview - The herbicide market is defined under the revised "Pesticide Management Regulations" by the State Council, which categorizes herbicides as substances used to suppress or kill weeds, thereby protecting crops [2]. - There are over 300 types of herbicides, classified into thirteen categories based on their chemical structure [2]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the herbicide industry includes suppliers of petrochemical raw materials, inorganic chemicals, and production equipment, while the midstream consists of glyphosate processing enterprises, and the downstream primarily serves agricultural and non-agricultural weed control markets [7][8]. Current Development - The total production of agricultural raw materials in China is projected to reach 3.3126 million tons in 2024, with herbicides accounting for 1.2719 million tons, representing 38.40% of the total [1][9]. - The demand for herbicides is expected to grow due to the continuous increase in crop planting area, which reached 173 million hectares in 2024, with various crops showing positive growth rates [8]. Import and Export Trade - In 2024, China's herbicide exports are expected to reach 2.1244 million tons, generating an export revenue of approximately $5.085 billion, with retail packaging accounting for 57.21% of the exports [10]. Competitive Landscape - The herbicide market in China is characterized by the coexistence of domestic and foreign companies, with leading firms like Bayer, Syngenta, and BASF holding significant market shares, while domestic companies such as Adama, Xingfa Group, and New Hope Group have also enhanced their market competitiveness [11]. Key Companies - Adama's revenue in 2024 is projected to exceed 29.49 billion yuan, with herbicide sales contributing 39.77% of its total revenue [11]. - New Hope Group is expected to achieve a revenue of 14.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 11.07% [12]. Future Trends - The future of the herbicide industry may see the integration of drone technology for real-time weed monitoring and targeted application, as well as a shift towards a closed-loop ecosystem that encompasses research, production, service, and recycling [13].

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 28.82% but a recent decline of 4.50% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yangnong Chemical reported revenue of 6.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million yuan, up 5.60% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.735 billion yuan, with 1.04 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.01% to 18,100, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.40% to 22,271 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 754,800 shares to 16.2928 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift could enhance the cash flow and dividend yield of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to profit-generating ones [6][29] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected shortfall of 250,000 tons by 2028, which is about 23% of the total annual production [6] - The report highlights four key investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improving industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 51.0% over the past 12 months, compared to 42.5% for the CSI 300 index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for low-cost expansion in major companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, alongside sectors like tires and fertilizers [7] - It also points out the improving conditions in various segments, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and agricultural chemicals [8] Key Products Analysis - Recent price increases were noted for acrylic acid and esters, with butyl acrylate priced at 7,600 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.40% increase [10] - The report also mentions the price of polymer MDI in East China at 15,550 RMB/ton, up by 1.97% [10] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [30]