扬农化工 600486.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 农药行业见底，葫芦岛项目放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司在农药行业且淡季期间仍能保持毛利率相对稳定，业绩具有一定韧性，同时葫 芦岛项目建设进程加速，我们仍看好公司长期成长性。我们根据市场情况对公司主 要产品价格进行调整，并调整 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.21、17.48 和 19.45 亿 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 16.67 和 19.62 亿元），给予可比公司 25 年调整后平均 19 倍 PE，对应目标价 66.31 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示：产品和原材料价格波动，项目投产进度不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,478 | 10,435 | 12,116 | 13,299 | 14,198 | | 同比增长 (%) | -27.4% | -9.1% | 16.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | ...

事件：2025 年3 月24 日，扬农化工发布2024 年年报，公司2024 年营业收入为104.35 亿元，同比下降 9.09%，归母净利润为12.02 亿元，同比下降23.19%，扣非净利润为11.63 亿元，同比下降22.81%；对应 4Q24 营业收入为24.19 亿元，环比上升4.41%，归母净利润为1.76 亿元，环比下降32.91%。 点评：农化行业短期景气度处于底部，公司产品量升价跌，原药业务承压。 根据公司2024 年年报披露，2024 年公司原药/制剂/贸易板块收入分别为64.18/15.45/23.06 亿元，同比变 化分别为-13.07%/-7.78%/3.65%，毛利率分别为27.70%/29.77%/7.33%，同比变化分别 为-2.45/+2.39/-2.64pcts。公司业绩下滑的主要原因为原药、制剂产品价格双双下跌。根据公司2024 年年 度主要经营数据公告披露，2024 年公司原药平均售价为6.43 万元/吨，同比下降16.01%；制剂平均售价 为4.25 万元/吨，同比下降9.38%。 风险提示：气候异常风险、汇率风险、市场风险、安全和环保风险、地缘政治风险 公司2024 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 扬农化工（600486） 证券研究报告 业绩基本符合预期，葫芦岛进入贡献期 事件：扬农化工发布 2024 年年报，实现营业收入 104.35 亿元，同比减少 9.09%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 12.02 亿元，同比减少 23.19%。按 4.07 亿股的总股本，实现每股收益 2.98 元，每股经营现金流 5.30 元。其 中第四季度实现营业收入 24.19 亿元，同比增长 9.76%；实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润 1.76 亿元，同比减少 13.71%；折合单季度 EPS 0.43 元。 营收规模同比下滑：销量同比增加，但受累于原药产品价格同比下降。 2024 年，公司销售收入 104.35 亿元，较上年减少 10.43 亿元（同比-9.09%）； 从结构上看，原药、贸易、制剂收入分别为 64.18 亿元、23.06 亿元、15.45 亿元，分别同比变动-9.65、+0.82、-1.31 亿元，yoy-13.1%、+3.7%、-7.8%。 原药及制剂业务收入规模同比下降较多，但贸易收入略有增长。 从销量上看，2024 年全年原药销量 9.99 万吨，同比增加 0.34 万 ...

事件：扬农化工发布2024 年年报，实现营业收入104.35 亿元，同比减少9.09%；归属于上市公司股东的 净利润12.02 亿元，同比减少23.19%。按4.07 亿股的总股本，实现每股收益2.98 元，每股经营现金流 5.30 元。其中第四季度实现营业收入24.19 亿元，同比增长9.76%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 1.76 亿元，同比减少13.71%；折合单季度EPS 0.43 元。 营收规模同比下滑：销量同比增加，但受累于原药产品价格同比下降。 2024 年，公司销售收入104.35 亿元，较上年减少10.43 亿元（同比-9.09%）；从结构上看，原药、贸 易、制剂收入分别为64.18 亿元、23.06 亿元、15.45亿元，分别同比变动-9.65、+0.82、-1.31 亿元，yoy- 13.1%、+3.7%、-7.8%。 原药及制剂业务收入规模同比下降较多，但贸易收入略有增长。 从销量上看，2024 年全年原药销量9.99 万吨，同比增加0.34 万吨，yoy+3.5%，制剂（不折百）业务销 量为3.64 万吨，同比增加0.06 万吨，yoy+1.8% 。分季度看， 2024 年Q1- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 10,435 million yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,202 million yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year [10][11] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in the average selling prices of raw materials, which led to a total product price loss of 1,500 million yuan [21][27] - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,467 million yuan, 1,777 million yuan, and 2,000 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [35] Revenue and Sales Performance - The company's sales revenue for 2024 was 10,435 million yuan, down 10.43 million yuan year-on-year, with raw materials, trade, and formulations contributing 6,418 million yuan, 2,306 million yuan, and 1,545 million yuan respectively [2][11] - Raw material sales volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 99,900 tons, while formulation sales volume increased by 1.8% year-on-year to 36,400 tons [16][11] - The average selling price of raw materials was 64,300 yuan/ton, down 16% year-on-year, and the average selling price of formulations was 42,500 yuan/ton, down 9.38% year-on-year [21][3] Profitability and Cost Control - The company's overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with raw material gross margin at 27.7% and formulation gross margin at 29.8% [27][28] - The company implemented effective cost control measures, achieving savings of approximately 635 million yuan across various operational areas [28][30] - The increase in impairment losses negatively impacted net profit, with credit impairment losses increasing by 80 million yuan year-on-year [30] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction and commissioning of the Liaoning Youchuang project, which is projected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025 [33] - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low, but there are expectations for recovery in demand and pricing in the coming years as inventory levels normalize [26]

从上证中小国企改革指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证中小国企改革指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比33.02%、可选消费占比12.10%、原材料占比 10.91%、信息技术占比10.57%、医药卫生占比7.84%、公用事业占比7.75%、房地产占比5.50%、主要消 费占比5.48%、金融占比2.94%、通信服务占比2.11%、能源占比1.79%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在 下一个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将 其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界4月10日消息，上证指数高开震荡，上证中小国企改革指数 (中小企改，950080)报2355.50点。 数据统计显示，上证中小国企改革指数近一个月下跌3.45%，近三个月上涨0.35%，年至今下跌5.91%。 据了解，上证中小国企改革指数优选已被中央和地方国资委列为国 ...

2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-07 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 48.63 | | 总市值（亿元） | 198 | | 总股本（百万股） | 407 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 403 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 46.81-66.53 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 129.04 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 扬农化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 农药进入微利时代导致公司业绩承压 买入(维持) 事件 1、《扬农化工（600486）：农药景 气度下行，公司具备抗风险能力》 2024-08-28 2、《扬农化工（600486）：静待农 药景气度提升，多项目推进巩固龙 头地位》2024-07-28 3、《扬农化工（600486）：2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The pesticide industry is currently in a downturn, leading to pressure on the company's performance as it enters a low-profit era [5]. - Despite challenges, the company has shown resilience through effective cost control and strategic adjustments in production structure, ensuring long-term stable operations [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the pesticide industry, with projected revenue growth in the coming years [10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 10.435 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.09%, with a net profit of 1.202 billion yuan, down 23.19% [4][10]. Investment Highlights - In 2024, the company's raw material sales volume increased by 3.5% to 99,900 tons, while the sales revenue from raw materials decreased by 13% due to falling prices [5]. - The company maintained its leading position in the domestic market through deepened customer cooperation and innovative business models, resulting in a 4% increase in trade sales [5]. - The formulation business saw a slight sales volume increase of 1.77% to 36,300 tons, but sales revenue declined by 8% [5]. Financial Dynamics - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.155 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year, primarily due to extended sales periods and reduced income [6]. - The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, finance, and R&D, with slight increases in sales expenses attributed to customer management efforts [6]. R&D and Product Development - The company emphasizes dual-driven development in patented and non-patented products, aiming to penetrate high-end markets with innovative products [7][9]. - The company has made significant technological breakthroughs in pyrethroid products, filling 20 technical gaps and holding over 50 product varieties [9]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.212 billion yuan, 13.825 billion yuan, and 14.908 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.6, 11.7, and 10.7 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical [1][12] Core Views - Yangnong Chemical's 2024 revenue decreased by 9.09% year-on-year to 10.435 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 23.19% to 1.202 billion yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.80 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [5][6] - Despite an increase in sales volume, the decline in product prices has pressured the company's performance. The average price of key products has reached historical lows, impacting revenue and profitability [5][6] - The Huludao project is expected to contribute additional revenue, with an estimated annual income of over 2 billion yuan once fully operational [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yangnong Chemical achieved total revenue of 10.435 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.202 billion yuan, down 23.19% [5][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 2.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, but net profit decreased by 13.71% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin fell by 2.59 percentage points to 23.11%, and net margin decreased by 2.12 percentage points to 11.53% [5] Production and Capacity Expansion - The Huludao project is planned to produce 15,650 tons of pesticide raw materials and intermediates annually, with the first phase already yielding qualified products. The second phase is expected to contribute additional revenue in the second half of 2025 [6] - The company has expanded its patent portfolio in pyrethroid synthesis to 62 patents and has achieved a purity breakthrough in a key product [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.38 yuan, 3.97 yuan, and 4.40 yuan, respectively [6] - Revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 10.28% in 2025 and 10.52% in 2026, with net profit growth rates of 14.45% and 17.39% for the same years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 10.435 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%, primarily due to a loss of 1.5 billion yuan in raw material prices in the pesticide industry [4][5]. - The implementation of the "One Certificate, One Product" policy by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is expected to reduce market homogenization and inefficient competition, benefiting the company's brand and product sales [5]. - The company's formulation sales reached 1.545 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 7.78% year-on-year, but maintained profit levels from the previous year [5]. - The company is actively addressing challenges in overseas markets and has seen a 3.65% year-on-year increase in trade business sales, amounting to 2.306 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 1.202 billion yuan in 2024, down 23.19% year-on-year [4][9]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.408 billion yuan, 1.592 billion yuan, and 1.754 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.5, 13.7, and 12.4 [7][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly, with projections of 24.1% in 2025 and 24.4% in 2026 [11][12]. Market Position - The top ten companies in the pesticide industry account for nearly 40% of total sales, indicating an increase in industry concentration [6]. - The company’s raw material sales volume reached 99,872.64 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.50% [6].