2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 避险情绪升级，贵金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260216-20260220 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 有色金属 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨 1.39%，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 1.70%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.34 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 1.06%，铝下跌 1.88%，能源金属上涨 2.66%，小金属上涨 6.66%，铜上涨 1.10 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月24日，有色金属ETF基金（516650）开盘涨3.12%，报2.212元。有色金属ETF基金（516650）重仓股 方面，紫金矿业开盘涨4.53%，洛阳钼业涨4.41%，北方稀土涨2.30%，华友钴业涨1.79%，中国铝业涨 2.52%，赣锋锂业涨4.36%，山东黄金涨4.07%，云铝股份涨1.92%，中金黄金涨4.98%，天齐锂业涨 2.65%。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为华夏基 金管理有限公司，基金经理为单宽之，成立（2021-06-09）以来回报为114.05%，近一个月回报为 1.50%。 ...

贵金属概念快速拉升，晓程科技涨超13%，湖南白银涨停，四川黄金涨超9%，招金黄金涨超7%，西部 黄金涨超6%，湖南黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金涨超5%，恒邦股份、山金黄金、山东黄金涨超4%。消息 面上，早盘现货黄金向上突破5200美元/盎司，为1月30日以来首次，日内涨近2%。此外，上期所沪银 主力合约一度涨13%，报22366元/千克。 宏源期货分析指出，美国部分经济与就业数据表现良好，部分美联储官员担忧通胀反弹，使美联储降息 预期时点推迟至7月；美国持续威胁军事打击伊朗以促其在核问题谈判中妥协，美乌与俄罗斯之间和平 协议谈判取得部分进展且开始触及领土问题，地缘政治风险此起彼伏引发避险需求；美国最高法院裁定 特朗普政府部分关税措施违法，但随后特朗普政府依据其他法律条款推出新的关税措施，引发美国对外 贸易政策不确定性担忧；候任美联储主席凯文·沃什或降息易缩表难，财政部长贝森特表示美联储或不 会迅速缩表，叠加多国央行持续购买黄金，中长期或支撑贵金属价格。 光大期货分析称，春节期间，外盘贵金属行情可分为两个阶段。上半场，市场沉浸在对美联储政策转向 的重新定价之中。美国1月非农就业数据的意外强劲与CPI数据显示的通胀粘 ...

扬子晚报网2月24日讯（记者 范晓林）今天是马年首个交易日，A股沪指高开1.15%，深成指高开1.52%，创业板指高开1.70%，贵金属、油气、算力等板 块指数涨幅居前。 趋势顶底 分时 | 页展 09:38 4 暗盘资金 涨停揭秘 开盘后，贵金属概念快速拉升，晓程科技涨超13%，湖南白银逼近涨停，四川黄金、湖南黄金、盛达资源、兴业银锡、招金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。消息面 上，现货黄金向上触及5200美元/盎司，为1月30日以来首次，日内涨近2%。此外，上期所沪银主力合约一度涨13%，报22366元/千克。 .Il 5G C 贵金属 6082.57 +369.21 +6.46% | 成分股 | 资金 | 分析 | 资讯 | 基金 盘口 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 设置 ◎ 分析 ○ | | | 最新 ◆ | 幅度 ◆ | 流通市值 ◆ | | 晓程科技 | | | 64.19 | 12.46% | 149.99亿 | | 300139 | | | | | | | 湖南白银 | | | 15.05 | 10.01% | 349.89亿 | | 002716 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 有色ETF鹏华（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为123.33%，近一个月回报为2.73%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月24日，有色ETF鹏华（159880）开盘涨3.44%，报2.314元。有色ETF鹏华（159880）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨4.53%，洛阳钼业涨4.41%，北方稀土涨2.30%，华友钴业涨1.79%，中国铝业涨2.52%，赣 锋锂业涨4.36%，云铝股份涨1.92%，山东黄金涨4.07%，中金黄金涨4.98%，天齐锂业涨2.65%。 ...

金银现货和期货价格出现上涨，金价已站上5100美元。 东莞证券2026年2月14日发布的有色金属行业双周报提到，短期黄金市场多空博弈加剧，需等待金价继 续企稳，中长期美元信用逐步弱化，叠加2026年美联储降息仍有预期，黄金配置价值有望进一步提升。 五矿证券2026年2月13日发布的2026年有色金属趋势展望指出，2025年贵金属涨幅居前，COMEX黄金 白银分别上涨81%、178%。东方证券2026年2月13日发布的A股风格及行业配置周报提到，流动性冲击 消化后，有色回归基本面定价，贵金属长期配置逻辑并未改变，近一周铜铝库存基本持稳，但累库幅度 放缓，铜铝等工业品现实转强或可期待，在宏观利好释出且供给扰动增加背景下，供需格局改善的品种 有望继续表现。光大证券2026年2月12日发布的2026年2月五维行业比较观点显示，有色金属行业在五维 行业比较框架下得分较高。国元证券2026年2月发布的有色金属行业双周报提到，截至2月6日， COMEX黄金近2周出现上涨。 产业链及企业梳理 赤峰黄金：聚焦黄金采选业务，通过旗下矿山开展黄金矿石开采与选矿加工，产出合质金等产品对外销 售，当前金银现货和期货价格出现上涨，金价已 ...

每经AI快讯，2月23日，港股黄金股走强，中国黄金国际涨近7%，山东黄金涨逾5%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，2月23日，港股黄金股走强，中国黄金国际涨近7%，山东黄金涨逾5%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a confluence of monetary cycles, central bank actions, safe-haven demand, and supply-demand dynamics, indicating a robust long-term bullish trend in precious metals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 20, gold prices reached $5050 per ounce, marking a 2.4% increase during the holiday period, while silver prices rose to $84.35 per ounce, with an 8.19% increase, significantly outperforming gold [1]. - Domestic gold prices also saw a rise, with T+D gold closing at 1108.5 yuan per gram and retail prices surpassing 1550 yuan per gram, reflecting increased physical and investment demand [1]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has anchored price levels, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of 50 to 75 basis points by 2026, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Central bank gold purchases are providing a rigid support, with 95% of global central banks planning to increase their gold reserves, maintaining an average monthly purchase of 60 to 70 tons [2]. - Geopolitical tensions and rising credit risks are driving safe-haven demand, as the U.S. debt exceeds $38 trillion, weakening dollar credit and prompting investments in gold to hedge against uncertainties [2]. - Supply constraints are tightening, with global gold mine production growth below 2% and rising extraction costs, while investment, industrial, and reserve demand continue to expand, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to persist, although short-term volatility may increase, with institutions like Goldman Sachs projecting gold prices to reach $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan and UBS raising targets to $6200 to $6500 per ounce [3]. - The A-share market is likely to experience a clear transmission effect from the strong performance of gold and silver, benefiting gold mining companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Hunan Gold, which are expected to see significant earnings elasticity [3]. - The precious metals sector is anticipated to serve as a defensive asset in the face of increased market volatility, providing a hedge against fluctuations in growth and cyclical stocks [3].