Market Overview - The general retail sector declined by 1.67% on February 2, with Yuyuan Group leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Cheng Commercial (600828) with a closing price of 7.24, up 10.03% on a trading volume of 1.4296 million shares [1] - Xinhua Free Trade (600785) at 23.32, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 152,300 shares [1] - Sanjiang Shopping (601116) at 17.58, up 5.97% with a trading volume of 647,300 shares [1] - Major decliners included: - Yuyuan Group (600655) at 5.05, down 9.66% with a trading volume of 738,800 shares [2] - Juran Smart Home (000785) at 2.92, down 6.11% with a trading volume of 1.2936 million shares [2] - Gongxiao Daji (000564) at 2.31, down 4.94% with a trading volume of 3.6043 million shares [2] Capital Flow - The general retail sector experienced a net outflow of 223 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 229 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Sanjiang Shopping (601116) with a net inflow of 14.2 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xinhua Department Store (600785) with a net outflow of 110 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) with a net inflow of 67.528 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group is expected to report a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate sector, policy adjustments, and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is around -4.8 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-operating gains and losses also expected to be about -4.7 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on reducing its debt ratio and optimizing its financial structure while concentrating on high-potential, high-growth, and high-profit core industries [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Yuyuan Group is committed to its "Oriental Lifestyle Aesthetics" strategy, aiming for sustainable development through refined operations and enhancing product capabilities via technology and cultural empowerment [1] - The company is actively exploring new business models, including the diamond sector in jewelry, cross-industry collaborations in dining, and integrating technology into cultural experiences [2] Group 3: International Expansion - Yuyuan Group has made significant strides in international markets, with the opening of its first overseas restaurant in London and hosting a successful lantern festival in Thailand that attracted over 4 million visitors [2] - The company plans to expand its jewelry brand into Southeast Asia, starting with a new store in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and is set to open another restaurant in Bangkok [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts from Open Source Securities and Guosheng Securities are optimistic about Yuyuan Group's recovery, citing the company's focus on cultural and technological empowerment, product innovation, and overseas expansion as key growth drivers [3] - The anticipated disposal of non-core assets and the commencement of major projects are expected to positively impact the company's performance moving forward [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy benefits in the service consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of optimizing and expanding service supply to foster new growth points in service consumption. The government's plan includes 12 measures across key and potential areas, aiming to enhance service quality and support economic development [1][3]. - The focus on supply-side structural reforms is expected to stimulate both short-term and long-term consumer demand, promoting a virtuous cycle of employment, income, and consumption, thereby providing long-term support for economic growth [3][7]. - Key areas of focus include transportation, domestic services, cultural tourism, and sports events, with potential areas such as performance services and experiential consumption also highlighted for their growth potential [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support Areas - The report outlines three main policy support areas with twelve specific measures, including: 1. Transportation services aimed at integrating tourism and enhancing service quality [7]. 2. Domestic services focusing on innovation and skill training [7]. 3. Cultural tourism services that encourage infrastructure development and enhance consumer experiences [7]. Potential Growth Areas - The report identifies potential growth areas such as performance services, sports events, and experiential consumption, which are expected to drive demand in related sectors like accommodation and dining [3][7]. Financial and Structural Support - The report emphasizes the need for a robust support system, including the establishment of standards, credit building, and financial backing to ensure the stable development of service consumption [3][7].

中证报中证网讯（记者 乔翔）1月30日晚，豫园股份发布2025年业绩预告。经财务部门初步测算，公司 预计2025年净利润为-48亿元。 豫园股份表示，公司坚定"东方生活美学"置顶战略，持续瘦身健体回笼资金、降低负债率、优化财务结 构，集中优势战略性聚焦投向高潜力、高增长、高利润、高协同的核心产业，公司相信当前推进的战略 聚焦及短期业绩波动，是实现更高质量、更可持续发展的必经环节，公司将通过精细化运营、聚焦线下 现象级场景打造，通过科创和文化赋能持续提升产品力，强化供应链体系以及拓展全球化业务布局等措 施，促进业务增长，夯实公司长期价值，为股东创造持续稳健的回报。 对于亏损原因，豫园股份表示，报告期内，公司基于谨慎性原则，对相关资产进行年末减值测试，经分 析评估并初步测算，对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。具体计提减值金额 以最终审定数据为准。报告期内，公司动态优化销售策略，加快推进库存去化与资金回流，使得公司复 合功能地产业务实际销售价格和毛利率同比下降。此外，消费领域的结构性变化使得公司相关产业板块 面临短期压力，营业收入及毛利额较去年同期下降，对净利润表现带来一定影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co., Ltd., is forecasting a significant net loss for the year 2025, with expected net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -480 million yuan, indicating a downturn compared to the previous year's performance [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -480 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit excluding non-operating gains and losses expected to be around -470 million yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 31.61 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.53 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -210.89 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Expected Loss - The expected loss is primarily due to asset impairment tests conducted on real estate projects and goodwill, leading to provisions for asset impairment [8]. - The ongoing downturn in the real estate sector has prompted the company to optimize sales strategies, resulting in a decrease in actual sales prices and gross margins [8]. - Structural changes in the consumption sector, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and significant price fluctuations, have negatively impacted revenue and gross profit [8]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is committed to its "Eastern Lifestyle Aesthetics" strategy, focusing on reducing debt, optimizing financial structure, and concentrating on high-potential core industries [9]. - The company aims to enhance product capabilities through refined operations, cultural empowerment, and global business expansion, thereby promoting business growth and long-term value for shareholders [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yuyuan Group is expected to report a significant net loss of approximately 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of 125 million yuan in the previous year [2] - The company attributes the anticipated loss primarily to asset impairment tests conducted on real estate projects and goodwill, leading to a provision for asset impairment [2] - The ongoing downturn in the real estate sector has prompted the company to optimize its sales strategy, resulting in a decrease in actual sales prices and gross margins for its composite functional real estate business [2] - Structural changes in the consumer sector due to macroeconomic pressures, policy adjustments, and significant price fluctuations have negatively impacted the company's revenue and gross profit, contributing to the expected decline in net profit [2] Group 2 - Yuyuan Group's main business areas include gold and jewelry sales, catering and pharmaceutical businesses, and real estate development [3] - The company has experienced a dramatic decline in net profit, dropping from 3.769 billion yuan in 2021 to 125 million yuan in 2024 [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a regulatory letter regarding the company's earnings forecast, indicating the seriousness of the reported loss [2]