Group 1 - The A-share tax refund store sector has shown a continuous rise, with Maoye Commercial reaching the daily limit increase [2] - Hangzhou Xie Bai previously hit the daily limit, while Bai Da Group increased by over 5% [2] - Other stocks such as Guangbai Co., Hebai Group, Yuyuan, Bailian Group, and New World also experienced gains [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is experiencing a vibrant consumer atmosphere during the Spring Festival, reflecting its status as an international consumption center, with projected inbound tourists exceeding 6 million and retail sales reaching 1.85 trillion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends and Strategies - The Shanghai government aims to enhance consumption significantly by 2026, focusing on inbound tourism, tax refunds, and cross-border payment facilitation to unlock consumer potential [3] - The integration of cultural, tourism, commerce, and sports events is proposed to create a new consumption ecosystem, addressing the fragmentation in current offerings [3][4] - Recommendations include establishing a leadership group for the integration of cultural and commercial events, promoting immersive experiences rather than just transactional interactions [4] Group 2: Digital Empowerment and Experience Enhancement - Digital tools are essential for enhancing consumer experiences, with suggestions to upgrade the "Shanghai Small Tour" app to include AI guides and multilingual services [5] - The focus is on creating spaces that offer emotional value and cultural immersion, encouraging visitors to engage with Shanghai's unique lifestyle [5] Group 3: Tax Refunds and International Consumer Engagement - The convenience of tax refunds is critical for retaining international consumers, with plans to increase refund points from over 600 to 1,000 by 2025 and to over 3,000 by 2027 [7] - Suggestions include clustering tax refund points near popular tourist areas and introducing mobile refund services to enhance accessibility [7] Group 4: Quality and Service Improvement - The emphasis is on moving away from price competition to focus on quality and service, with a call for a certification system for quality products and services in Shanghai [9] - The need for better integration of digital payment systems for international visitors is highlighted, suggesting partnerships with payment platforms to simplify transactions for newcomers [9][10] Group 5: Revitalizing Traditional Brands - The potential of Shanghai's "old brands" is recognized, with a focus on enhancing their appeal through improved packaging, service, and cultural storytelling [12] - Recommendations include creating immersive experiences that combine culture and technology, such as AI interactions and cultural workshops, to attract younger consumers and tourists [12][13] - Establishing a system for city-themed souvenirs and promoting traditional products as cultural ambassadors for Shanghai is proposed [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuyuan Group (豫园股份), is facing significant financial challenges, with projected losses of approximately 48 billion yuan for 2025, following a loss of 21.09 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a total loss exceeding 68 billion yuan over two years [1][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit loss of around 48 billion yuan and a net profit loss excluding non-recurring items of about 47 billion yuan for 2025 [1][11]. - In 2024, the company's net profit decreased by approximately 18.99 billion yuan, a decline of 93.81% year-on-year [4][14]. - The real estate sector's revenue has been under pressure, with a significant drop in income from 192.19 billion yuan in 2019 to 100.38 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.96% [3][13]. Group 2: Business Segments - The real estate segment's gross margin fell sharply from 29.31% in 2019 to 3.89% in 2024, reflecting a significant contraction in performance [3][13]. - The fashion jewelry segment, which is a core business for the company, generated revenue of 184.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for nearly 65% of total revenue, but saw a year-on-year decline of 31.86% [7][16]. - The overall consumption sector, including dining, food retail, and cosmetics, has also experienced revenue declines, attributed to macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the industry [9][19]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment and destocking cycle, contributing to short-term performance pressures for the company [3][14]. - Rising gold prices have negatively impacted the fashion jewelry industry, with consumers delaying purchases due to high prices and preferring standardized investment gold bars over branded jewelry [7][16]. - New tax regulations on gold, effective from November 2025, are expected to further suppress consumer demand by increasing procurement costs for jewelry companies [9][19]. Group 4: Strategic Response - The company is implementing a strategy focused on optimizing asset structure by accelerating the destocking of real estate projects, acknowledging short-term performance pressures [10][20]. - The management has indicated a long-term narrative centered around the value release of core consumer businesses and international expansion, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen [10][20].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yuyuan Group is under pressure due to its real estate segment, but operational fundamentals are continuously improving [1] Financial Performance - In 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -4.8 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 0.13 billion yuan in 2024; the non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -4.7 billion yuan, down from -2.11 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Market Environment - The overall consumption environment remains weak, significantly impacting the company's short-term performance due to the drag from the real estate segment [1] - However, there is optimism as the real estate sector gradually depletes, which will reduce the drag on the company's financial statements [1] Growth Opportunities - There is a marginal recovery in overall offline customer traffic, and the upcoming Lantern Festival in 2026 is expected to attract a large number of visitors [1] - The company is also focusing on its time-honored brands and high-potential brands, gradually initiating brand overseas expansion and globalization efforts, which may lead to improvements in the consumption sector [1] - The upcoming projects in the Dayuyuan area, including the second phase of Yuyuan and the Fuyou Road site, are expected to contribute incremental growth [1] Future Projections - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan in 2026 and maintains a "recommend" rating [1]

公司业绩承压主因：房价承压，公司基于谨慎性原则计提资产减值准备，同时动态优化销售策略，加快 推进房地产库存去化与资金回流，使得地产业务实际销售价格和毛利率同比下降。此外，因消费整体表 现一般，公司旗下消费产业有所承压，收入及毛利额同比有所下降。 投资建议：当下整体消费环境依然疲软，公司受制于地产板块拖累导致短期业绩明显承压。但乐观的 是，随着地产逐步去化后续对公司报表拖累减少；同时整体线下客流边际有所回暖，26 年豫园灯会近 期开启游客火爆；公司也同步发力旗下老字号与高潜力品牌，逐步开启品牌出海及全球化布局，消费产 业有望好转；后续大豫园片区中豫园二期、福佑路地块落地将贡献增量。我们预计公司26 年归母净利 润10.1 亿元，维持"推荐"评级。 坚定"东方生活美学"置顶战略，增强公司经营内核：但在25 年业绩承压的背后，我们也看到公司持续 瘦身健体回笼资金、降低负债率、优化财务结构，集中优势战略性聚焦投向高潜力、高增长、高利润、 高协同的核心产业，实现自身经营内核的持续改善。预计随着大幅计提房地产减值准备后，后续地产对 报表的拖累有望逐步减少。 老庙品牌转型初见成效：24-25 年金价持续走高对黄金珠宝行业造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of UK Prime Minister Starmer to Yuyuan Garden and his purchase of the butterfly crisp signifies recognition of the Yuyuan brand and Chinese cultural influence, highlighting the need for Yuyuan to maximize its cultural value and promote Chinese culture globally [1] Group 1: Yuyuan's Role in International Consumption - Yuyuan Garden is a key player in Shanghai's development as an international consumption center, focusing on upgrading the jewelry fashion industry and enhancing urban consumption capabilities [1] - Yuyuan plans to enhance its appeal to international tourists by improving payment convenience and language services, aiming to create a welcoming experience for overseas visitors [3] Group 2: Brand Expansion and Cultural Promotion - Yuyuan has initiated cultural and brand expansion through events like the "Lantern Festival," with plans to open its first flagship store in London by 2025 and expand its presence in Southeast Asia [5] - The company emphasizes the importance of a solid business model and industry chain layout for successful international expansion, with a focus on key regions and replicable business models by 2026 [5] Group 3: Lantern Festival Enhancements - The Lantern Festival this year will see significant upgrades, including an expanded geographical area and the introduction of a "ticket root economy" model, where tickets serve as both entry passes and redeemable vouchers at local merchants [6] - The expected visitor count for this year's festival is projected to exceed 4 million, with a focus on enhancing the overall experience rather than just increasing numbers [6] Group 4: Jewelry Fashion Functional Zone Development - The establishment of the International Jewelry Fashion Functional Zone is seen as a significant opportunity for Yuyuan, aiming to enhance the cultural and aesthetic appeal of jewelry products [6] - The company is working on integrating the jewelry industry with cultural elements, focusing on reducing the financial attributes of gold products while enhancing their wearable and aesthetic qualities [7] Group 5: Revitalizing Traditional Brands - To invigorate the consumption vitality of traditional brands, Yuyuan suggests enhancing product cultural integration, creating immersive cultural consumption experiences, and establishing a robust system for Shanghai's signature gifts [8][9] - The company advocates for collaborative efforts between market entities and government to ensure the jewelry fashion functional zone becomes a hub for top brands and consumer experiences [7]

多位上海市政协委员的建言内容聚焦上海如何深化打造"国际消费中心城市"以及相关具体实施路径。 如何更大力度提振消费？激发消费活力应该如何实践？ 2026年上海两会期间，多位上海市政协委员的建言内容聚焦上海如何深化打造"国际消费中心城市"以及 相关具体实施路径。 "我此次关注的重点方向是上海国际消费中心城市建设。"上海市政协常委、东方国际（集团）有限公司 党委书记童继生在接受记者采访时表示，从数据上看，2025年上海社会消费品零售总额已超1.6万亿， 居全国城市第二，但对标纽约等国际一线城市来看，上海的国际消费整体市场还有很大的发展空间。 童继生根据消费人群提出三方面建议：第一，面向常驻上海的本地消费者来进行消费供给层面的转型与 升级，这包括为本地消费者提供创新服务的消费、创新学习的消费、文化鉴赏的消费等。第二，面向外 地客人来重点提升海派消费、时尚消费等领域内容的含量和外延的拓展。第三，面向外国客人提供更多 体验式、新中式和创意式的消费。 "尤其是外国客人来到上海也分为3类：外国的派驻机构（包括外交官和企业代表）、免签的入境游客、 在上海就业创业的新一代年轻的外国人士。针对游客，需要提供外国人在沪消费的新场景； ...

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group is expected to report its first annual loss since its listing, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -48 billion yuan, primarily due to the deep adjustment in the real estate industry, asset impairment provisions, and structural changes in the consumer market [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Industry Impact - The company's performance pressure is largely attributed to the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a decline in actual sales prices and gross margins [2] - Yuyuan Group's loss is not an isolated case, as other listed real estate companies are also forecasting significant losses, indicating a broader industry adjustment [2] - National statistics show a year-on-year decline of 8.7% in the sales area of new commercial housing and a 12.6% drop in sales revenue for 2025 [2] Group 2: Asset Impairment and Future Outlook - The company has made substantial asset impairment provisions based on prudence, reflecting potential risks to asset values due to the current market environment [2] - Analysts believe that the real estate adjustment cycle is nearing its bottom, with expectations for more supportive policies in 2026 to stabilize the market [3] - The proactive impairment measures are expected to reduce the financial burden from real estate projects, laying a foundation for performance recovery in 2026 [3] Group 3: Jewelry Business Transformation - The jewelry fashion industry, which contributes over 60% of the company's revenue, is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on creating unique value through product and brand innovation [4][5] - The gross margin of the jewelry segment improved to 7.73% in the first three quarters of 2025, up 0.66% year-on-year, driven by adjustments in product and pricing strategies [5] - The company has launched several new product lines aimed at younger consumers, indicating a shift towards value competition in the jewelry market [4][6] Group 4: Global Expansion and New Consumption Models - Yuyuan Group is actively pursuing global expansion and innovation in consumption models, with successful cultural IP events attracting significant foot traffic [7] - The company has opened overseas stores and hosted events in international markets, enhancing its brand presence and tapping into new consumer demographics [7][8] - Analysts predict that the company's overseas revenue will become a key growth driver, supported by its ongoing brand and product innovation efforts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].