Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical has successfully achieved the complete localization of the core sealing component rotor plate of the S-601 rotary valve in its aromatic division, marking the first domestic production of this component and breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly [1] Group 1: Localization Achievement - The S-601 rotary valve, previously imported, had its rotor plate subject to high technical barriers, leading to reliance on foreign suppliers [1] - To address this "bottleneck" issue, Shanghai Petrochemical formed a specialized team with East China University of Science and Technology and Yangzhong Sanli Machinery Co., Ltd. in December 2024 to initiate domestic development [1] - The team completed the first prototype by June 2025 and optimized key indicators, achieving product acceptance by October of the same year [1] Group 2: Performance and Implementation - The domestic rotor plate was installed during a maintenance window in November 2025, demonstrating excellent sealing performance and stable operation, meeting the expected targets [1]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.14% compared to the previous trading day, with Runbei Hangke leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Runbei Hangke (001316) closed at 51.30, up 7.55% with a trading volume of 97,700 shares and a transaction value of 473 million [1] - Daqing Huake (000985) closed at 21.85, up 2.25% with a trading volume of 61,000 shares and a transaction value of 132 million [1] - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 8.35, up 2.20% with a trading volume of 255,100 shares and a transaction value of 209 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Heshun Petroleum (603353) at 35.56, up 1.80%, and Dongfang Gan (000301) at 12.46, up 1.30% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 166 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 105 million [2] - The sector's main funds saw significant movements, with China Petroleum (601857) having a net inflow of 97.27 million, while Runbei Hangke (001316) had a net inflow of 48.87 million [3] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) also saw a net inflow of 37.44 million, indicating strong interest from main funds [3]

中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于上海市，是一家以从事石油、煤炭及其他燃 料加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本1054261.75万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石化上海石油 化工股份有限公司共对外投资了21家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息51条，专 利信息1356条，此外企业还拥有行政许可12814个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司、中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司取得一项 名为"一种再生塔腐蚀防控方法"的专利，授权公告号CN115990395B，申请日期为2021年10月。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天然 气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本12173968.9893万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油化工 股份有限公司共对外投资了269家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息45条，专利 信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可41个。 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 137/137/137 供应端，周全国炼厂开工上行0.8个百分点至71.4%，主营开工持续上行1.5个百分点至78.8%，云南石化开工继续上行，上海石化检修完成；地炼 开工持续下行0.3个百分点至53.6%，山东地炼开工率环比继续下跌，部分炼厂减产柴油，神驰化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修持续，大部分炼厂开 工稳定无新停开工。本周主营和地炼汽柴油产量均小幅上行。柴汽比下跌0.01至1.31。需求端，市场中下游采购积极性转弱，市场情绪消极，汽 柴油船单成交稳定车单产销下滑，汽柴产销率均下行。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油11 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a significant net loss for the year 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices, weak product demand, narrowing refining margins, and a major maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Shanghai Petrochemical's stock closed at 3.07 yuan, a 7.72% increase from the previous week's 2.85 yuan [1]. - The stock reached a high of 3.11 yuan and a low of 2.83 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 32.366 billion yuan, ranking 9th out of 30 in the refining and trading sector and 666th out of 5182 in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Shanghai Petrochemical forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 12.89 billion yuan and 15.76 billion yuan for the year 2025 [1][3]. - The expected net loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 12.80 billion yuan and 15.64 billion yuan [1]. - The previous year's net profit was reported at 3.165 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Reasons for Loss - The anticipated losses are attributed to several factors: the decline in international crude oil prices, weak market demand for products, reduced refining margins, and a significant maintenance shutdown affecting production volumes in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - The average processing cost of crude oil for 2025 is expected to decrease by 9.57% year-on-year [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a net loss of approximately 1.289 billion to 1.576 billion yuan in 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Petrochemical anticipates a net profit loss of about 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan, with a similar range for its non-recurring net profit loss [2] - The company reported significant losses in 2022 and 2023, with a net loss of 2.872 billion yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 1.406 billion yuan in 2023 [6][7] - The revenue for 2022 was 82.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.57% year-on-year, while 2023 saw an increase in revenue to 93.014 billion yuan, a growth of 12.72% [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average annual price of WTI crude oil in 2025 is projected to be $64.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, while Brent crude is expected to average $68.19 per barrel, down 14.62% [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to decline in 2025, with gasoline averaging 8,282 yuan per ton (down 5.76%) and diesel at 7,146 yuan per ton (down 5.51%) [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Demand - The prices of key chemical products produced by Shanghai Petrochemical, such as polyethylene and polypropylene, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with polyethylene prices dropping by 20.28% [4] - The average price of paraxylene is projected to decrease from $940.74 per ton in 2024 to $814.75 per ton in 2025, reflecting a 13.39% decline [5] - The demand for traditional petroleum products is under pressure due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faced operational challenges due to maintenance shutdowns, which impacted production and increased material and energy consumption [5] - The overall refining profit margin for independent refineries in Shandong is projected to be low, averaging 260.1 yuan per ton in 2025 [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Core Insights - Shanghai Petrochemical is focusing on high-end and differentiated products to meet market demand, achieving a 93.5% increase in the effectiveness of high-value-added synthetic resin products compared to the previous year, with a 1.8% increase in sales volume [1] Group 1: Product Strategy - The company has formed multiple specialized technical service teams to collaborate with clients in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automotive, developing customized material solutions [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical is implementing a "one product, one strategy" pricing approach for different high-end products, effectively enhancing product value [1] Group 2: Market Position - Over 90% of the company's synthetic resin products are high-end polyolefin specialty materials, with a growing market share in strategic emerging fields such as new energy battery packaging and specialty films, establishing a competitive advantage [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic refined oil market showed a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with both gasoline and diesel inventories increasing. Next week, it is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential increases in domestic gasoline and diesel production, continued weak demand, and rising inventory pressure on Shandong independent refineries [6][7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries continuing to decline. The production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline, and the diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [6]. - Demand: The purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of the market increased this week, market sentiment improved, and the sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel both rebounded above the balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 11.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 110,000 tons (+1.0%); diesel inventory was 12.81 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 270,000 tons (+2.1%). Local refinery diesel inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased slightly. Social inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased [6]. Future Outlook - Next week, the domestic refined oil market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply may see a slight increase in overall domestic gasoline and diesel production, while demand will remain weak. Shandong independent refineries are expected to face rising inventory pressure [7]. Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking Price - Gasoline market prices increased slightly in most regions, with the national average price rising from 7,274 yuan/ton to 7,311 yuan/ton. Diesel market prices also increased slightly, with the national average price rising from 6,029 yuan/ton to 6,036 yuan/ton [14]. Profit - The refining profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85 yuan/ton. The refining profit of independent refineries was 247 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 121 yuan/ton [19]. Operating Rate - The operating rate of Chinese refineries remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both declining slightly [32][34]. Production - This week, the production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline. The diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [42][46]. Sales - The sales volume and sales-to-production ratio of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both increased [51]. Demand - The demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. Although some terminals started to stock up for the Spring Festival, overall consumption sentiment was still dull [7]. Inventory - Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased this week. Next week, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries is expected to rise slightly, and diesel inventory is also expected to increase [74][78].