Core Viewpoint - The stock of Beiqi Blue Valley has experienced a decline in recent trading sessions, with a notable drop of 2.04% on January 22, 2025, reflecting a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 22, 2025, Beiqi Blue Valley's stock price was reported at 8.15 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 454.24 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 1.49%, but has declined by 2.86% over the last five trading days, 0.49% over the last twenty days, and 0.73% over the last sixty days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Beiqi Blue Valley achieved a revenue of 153.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.69% [2]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -34.26 billion yuan, which is an increase in loss of 23.73% compared to the previous period [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Beiqi Blue Valley was 240,100, a decrease of 11.53% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 13.04% to 20,346 shares [2]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 114 million shares, an increase of 46.59 million shares from the previous period [2].

股 票 研 究 双品牌驱动营收增长，积极布局自动驾驶 北汽蓝谷(600733) 北汽蓝谷首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 首次覆盖给予"增持"评级。享界、极狐双品牌驱动营收增长。新车型蓄势待发， 多元化产品矩阵持续扩容。公司积极布局自动驾驶，L2 至 L4 全面覆盖。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Highlights - The passenger car sector is expected to see a recovery in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [2][7] - For exports, priority should be given to leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, including BYD, Great Wall Motors, Chery, Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile [2][7] Heavy Truck Sector - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, up 26.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8%, and exports of 341,000 units, up 17.2% [3][37] - The expected domestic sales for heavy trucks in 2026 is optimistic, projected at 800,000 to 850,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year [3][37] - Recommended leading heavy truck companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [3][37] Bus Sector - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with bus sales in 2025 projected at 38,000 units, a 25% increase year-on-year [3][37] - For 2026, bus sales are expected to grow to 40,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year, supported by the number of buses over eight years old that need replacement [3][37] - Recommended leading bus companies include Yutong Bus, King Long Motor, and Zhongtong Bus [3][37] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [4][34] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year, while exports are projected to reach 830,000 units, a 50% increase [4][34] - Recommended leading motorcycle companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - Beiqi Blue Valley's 2025 performance report reveals a complex picture of "growth and losses coexisting," with an expected net loss of 4.35 billion to 4.65 billion yuan, despite a significant reduction from the previous year's loss of 6.948 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net loss for 2025 is projected to be between 4.35 billion and 4.65 billion yuan, a notable decrease from the 6.948 billion yuan loss in 2024, yet still at a high level [2] - Sales volume reached 209,600 units in 2025, marking an 84.06% year-on-year increase, but this growth has not translated into improved profitability [2][3] - Historical losses from 2020 to 2024 were 6.482 billion yuan, 5.244 billion yuan, 5.465 billion yuan, 5.400 billion yuan, and 6.948 billion yuan respectively, indicating a persistent trend of financial challenges [2] Group 2: Strategic Investments and Challenges - The paradox of increasing sales but ongoing losses stems from substantial strategic investments, particularly in R&D, which rose to 1.573 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 43.26% increase from the previous year [3] - The company's traditional B-end market, primarily the EU series, which contributed 70%-80% of sales, is being disrupted, leading to a shift in brand perception [4] - The transition to new high-end brands, such as Arcfox and Xiangjie, is ongoing, but the sales from these new models have not yet compensated for the decline in sales from older models [5] Group 3: Partnerships and Technological Advancements - A significant focus is on the collaboration with Huawei, which has resulted in the high-end brand "Xiangjie" becoming a new growth engine, raising the average selling price by 8,000 yuan [7] - The partnership has evolved into a "strategic community," with plans for a 20 billion yuan investment over three years to establish dedicated departments and supply chains [8] - The company has also achieved a milestone by obtaining the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving permits for its Arcfox Alpha S model, positioning itself at the forefront of autonomous driving commercialization in China [10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - Despite ongoing losses, the increase in sales has instilled some confidence among analysts, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 due to new model launches [13] - The current focus on L3 technology is seen as a long-term investment, requiring sustained R&D and market development, with limited immediate financial impact [12] - The company faces the challenge of transforming its brand perception and market recognition while relying on Huawei's support to establish a solid high-end market presence [13]

Core Viewpoint - Beiqi Blue Valley has announced a projected net loss for 2025, indicating a strategic focus on long-term investments in the new energy sector despite short-term financial pressures [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -46.5 billion to -43.5 billion yuan for 2025, and a net profit excluding non-recurring losses of between -49.5 billion to -46.5 billion yuan [1]. - For 2024, the projected net loss is -69.48 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring losses of -73.23 billion yuan, indicating an expected reduction in losses of at least 32% for 2025 [1]. Strategic Initiatives - Beiqi Blue Valley is implementing a "three-year leap" strategy, focusing on product development, brand enhancement, and sales channel expansion, which are seen as essential for building long-term competitiveness [3]. - The company anticipates a sales volume exceeding 200,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.06%, marking a significant milestone in its dual-brand strategy [3]. Technology and Innovation - The company is converting technological investments into competitive advantages, with the Alpha S (L3 version) undergoing large-scale road trials and plans for user access soon [3]. - A strategic partnership with Pony.ai is aimed at accelerating the commercialization of advanced autonomous driving technologies [3]. Future Outlook - Beiqi Blue Valley expects systematic improvement in profitability as new products are launched, cost reduction measures are implemented, and smart technologies enter the commercialization phase [5]. - The company emphasizes that achieving profitability is a systemic result driven by scale expansion, structural optimization, and operational quality improvements [5]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a revenue of 5.87 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with a positive gross margin of 1.8%, and has seen revenue growth for three consecutive quarters [7]. - The ongoing improvement in profitability is attributed to steady sales growth, a shift towards higher-end product structures, and enhanced operational efficiencies [7].

Group 1 - Multiple automakers have released their performance forecasts for 2025, with Beiqi Blue Valley expecting a net loss of 4.35 billion to 4.65 billion yuan, marking the lowest loss since 2020 [2] - Beiqi Blue Valley's sales are projected to reach nearly 210,000 units in 2025, an increase of 84.06% year-on-year, but the company remains in a loss phase due to insufficient scale effects [2] - Jianghuai Automobile anticipates a net loss of approximately 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, a reduction of about 100 million yuan compared to the previous year, with losses attributed to declining export business and investment losses from Volkswagen Anhui [3] Group 2 - Volkswagen Anhui, in which Jianghuai holds a 25% stake, is expected to incur losses exceeding 4.3 billion yuan in 2025, contributing to Jianghuai's financial struggles [3] - SAIC Motor is the only automaker among those reporting that expects a positive net profit for 2025, projected between 9 billion to 11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 438% to 558% [4] - The growth in SAIC Motor's net profit is primarily driven by a 12.32% increase in wholesale vehicle sales and the reduction of asset impairment provisions in its joint ventures [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights that BAIC New Energy has successfully transitioned from the "technology investment phase" to the "performance realization phase" in the competitive autonomous driving sector, establishing a significant leading advantage [2][3] - The company is set to achieve a complete value loop of "technology-sales-benefits" by 2025, breaking the stereotype of state-owned enterprises in the automotive industry and redefining the value model of "new state-owned enterprise vehicle manufacturing" [3] Technological Advancements - BAIC New Energy's L3 autonomous driving model, the Arcfox Alpha S, received the first batch of L3 autonomous driving licenses in December 2025, marking a shift from "technical verification" to "commercial realization" [5] - The Alpha S (L3 version) is equipped with 34 high-precision sensors, including three LiDARs, ensuring a comprehensive 360-degree perception matrix and a leading speed limit of 80 km/h among approved L3 models in China [9] Strategic Collaborations - The company announced an upgrade of its collaboration with Pony.ai to the 2.0 era, aiming to deploy 3,000 units of the Arcfox Alpha T5 Robotaxi within the year, targeting both the domestic and global Robotaxi markets [9] Market Positioning - BAIC New Energy has established a dual-brand strategy, with the Arcfox brand achieving over 160,000 units sold and the premium Enjoy brand breaking 10,000 units in December, solidifying its position in the luxury electric vehicle market [12] - The company has successfully crossed the scale threshold in the mainstream market, with a total sales volume of 209,000 units in 2025, reflecting an 84% year-on-year increase [12] Financial Performance - The gross margin for BAIC Blue Valley turned positive at 1.8% in Q3 2025, with revenue showing positive growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating a shift towards a profitable business model [14] - The company is entering a virtuous cycle of "scale driving profitability, profitability feeding innovation," supported by the introduction of new products and technologies [14]

Group 1 - Beiqi Blue Valley has accumulated losses exceeding 33.8 billion yuan over the past six years, with an expected net profit loss of 4.35 billion to 4.65 billion yuan for 2025, marking the lowest loss since 2020 [1] - The company anticipates a sales volume of nearly 210,000 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.06%, but remains in a loss phase due to insufficient scale effects [1] - The main growth driver for Beiqi Blue Valley in the previous year was the A0-class electric vehicle, the Extreme Fox T1, which sold over 56,000 units in four months, although its profit contribution is limited [1] Group 2 - JAC Motors is also expected to incur significant losses in 2025, with an estimated net profit loss of around 1.68 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 100 million yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The losses for JAC Motors are partly attributed to a decline in export business and a confirmed investment loss of about 1.08 billion yuan from its stake in Volkswagen Anhui, which is projected to lose over 4.3 billion yuan in 2025 [2] - Volkswagen Anhui has faced substantial losses, with nearly 10 billion yuan in losses over the past two years, and plans to launch four new models in 2026, although achieving sales recovery may be challenging [2] Group 3 - The future performance improvement for JAC Motors may hinge on the launch of the Zun Jie product line, with expectations for a flagship MPV and SUV model in 2026 [3] - Among A-share listed passenger car companies, SAIC Motor is the only one expected to report a positive net profit for 2025, with an estimated profit of 9 to 11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 438% to 558% [3] - The profit growth for SAIC Motor is driven by a 12.32% increase in wholesale vehicle sales and a reduction in net profit due to asset impairment provisions from its joint ventures [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Beiqi Blue Valley has forecasted a significant net loss exceeding 4.35 billion yuan for the year 2025, indicating that the company has not yet achieved profitability [1][3]. - The company anticipates a full-year net profit loss range of 4.35 billion yuan for the previous year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beiqi Blue Valley, has announced a projected net loss for the year 2025, indicating ongoing challenges despite significant sales growth in the electric vehicle market [2] Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between -465 million and -435 million yuan [2] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -495 million and -465 million yuan [2] - In comparison, the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was -694.8 million yuan, with a net profit of -732.3 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [2] - The earnings per share for 2024 was reported at -1.2466 yuan [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on its "three-year leap" strategy to capitalize on opportunities in the electric vehicle market, which involves significant investment in product research and development as well as channel construction [2] - Despite achieving a sales volume of 209,576 vehicles in 2025, representing an 84.06% year-on-year increase, the company is still in a loss phase due to the insufficient realization of scale benefits [2] - The company anticipates that profitability may improve as new products are launched according to plan and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures are further implemented [2]