| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4133 | -0.09 | 4.26 | 0.45 | | 深证综指 | 2721 | -0.92 | 7.04 | 0.77 | | 风格指数 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (％) | | | | | 大盘指数 | 0 | 0.36 | 13.54 | | 中盘指数 | -0.39 | 11.93 | 34.07 | | 小盘指数 | -1.66 | 10.48 | 26.75 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 行业(％) | | | | | 贵金属 | 10.24 | 46.38 | 97.93 | | 动物保健Ⅱ | 5.27 | 16.4 | 31.45 | | 工业金属 | 5.24 | 23.79 | 96.1 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 4.86 | 31.59 | 73.96 | | 饰品 | 4 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘局势紧张加剧，地缘政治不确定性为油价提供景气基础 本周伊朗、古巴地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。截至2026年1月23 日，布伦特、WTI原油期货价格分别报收65.44、61.28美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨1.9%、3.5%。古巴 方面，特朗普政府考虑对古巴石油进口实施海上封锁，该举措是控制委内瑞拉原油出口的延续。伊朗方 面，美国宣布对与伊朗相关实体及油轮实施新一轮制裁，重点指向协助伊朗石油、能源及衍生品出口的航 运和管理网络，此次被列入制裁名单的对象包括多家航运公司及其关联船只。此外，美国已派遣军舰驶向 伊朗，加剧了该地区地缘冲突升级风险。长期来看，全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治的不确定性有望为 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of energy state-owned enterprises for 2026 includes expanding effective investment, planning major projects, ensuring reliable energy supply, and accelerating digital transformation and technological innovation [1][2][3] - The investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" includes a record 4 trillion yuan from the State Grid and 180 billion yuan from the Southern Grid, targeting ultra-high voltage transmission, distribution network upgrades, and digital transformation [1] - The nuclear power sector is highlighted with the launch of the Jiangsu Xuwei nuclear heating power plant, which will supply 32.5 million tons of industrial steam annually and reduce carbon emissions by 19.6 million tons [2] Group 2 - The demand for energy transition and security is increasing, with a projected 3.5% growth in total energy consumption by 2025, and electricity consumption reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, more than double that of the US [3] - Energy state-owned enterprises are prioritizing technological innovation and digital transformation as key drivers for high-quality development in 2026, with significant investments planned in these areas [3][4] - Policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to integrate artificial intelligence with the energy sector, targeting the establishment of an innovation system by 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market saw a significant rise in resource and energy stocks on January 26, with Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation both reaching new highs and entering the "trillion-dollar market value club" [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 26, Zijin Mining (601899) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) both achieved market capitalizations exceeding 1 trillion yuan, marking their entry into the "trillion-dollar market value club" [2] - The stock price of Zijin Mining increased by 5.17%, closing at 39.50 yuan, with a trading range of 4.66% [1] - The international gold price reached a new historical high on January 26, with futures and spot prices surpassing $5,100 per ounce, reflecting a more than 2% increase from the previous trading day [5] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Investor Sentiment - The price of silver also surged, breaking the $109 per ounce mark, indicating strong demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Analysts attribute the price increases in gold and silver to heightened investor risk aversion, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 3: Company Earnings Forecasts - As of January 26, 26 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector released their earnings forecasts for 2025, with 19 companies expecting positive growth, representing over 70% of the total [10] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62% [10] - The expected net profit for Zijin Mining's non-recurring profit is projected to be between 47.5 billion and 48.5 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 50% to 53% year-on-year, primarily due to increased production and rising sales prices of key minerals [10] Group 4: Sector Trends and Recommendations - The Southwest Securities report highlights a bullish outlook for the resource sector, suggesting investors focus on four main lines for 2026, including gold, silver, and key strategic metals like rare earths [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply side for potential disruptions and opportunities, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" trend affecting production capacity in various sectors [14]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 826 million in Hong Kong stocks for the second consecutive day [1] - Notable net purchases included Tencent Holdings at HKD 1.015 billion, Xiaomi Group at HKD 822 million, and Pop Mart at HKD 613 million [1] - Significant net sales were observed in China Mobile at HKD 1.177 billion, Zijin Mining at HKD 1.077 billion, and Alibaba at HKD 235 million [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have consistently net bought Xiaomi for 7 days, totaling HKD 3.89621 billion [1] - Continuous net buying for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for 4 days, amounting to HKD 1.09627 billion [1] - Pop Mart has seen net buying for 3 consecutive days, totaling HKD 1.73397 billion [1] - China Mobile has faced net selling for 16 days, accumulating to HKD 12.89303 billion [1]

Market Overview - A total of 70 stocks hit the daily limit, while 40 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 64%. The market experienced fluctuations with significant divergence between large and small indices, as the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index opened high but fell over 1% during the day. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Overall, more than 3,700 stocks declined, with the metal, oil and gas, photovoltaic, and chemical sectors leading the gains, while commercial aerospace, sports, semiconductors, and military industries faced declines. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Composite Index by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.91% [1]. Stock Performance Analysis - The advancement rate for consecutive limit-up stocks dropped to 16.67%. High-profile stocks such as Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging, which previously achieved 18 consecutive limit-ups, announced suspension for verification, impacting market sentiment towards high-priced stocks. The number of stocks with three or more consecutive limit-ups fell to only two, with both Runbei Hangke and Yuejian Intelligent hitting limit down. The recent focus of speculative funds on elastic sectors showed signs of localized losses, particularly after the Beijing Stock Exchange restricted trading for a private fund, leading to a significant drop of 28% for Huawi Design, which had previously achieved two consecutive limit-ups [3][4]. Sector Highlights - The "space photovoltaic" sector gained attention following support from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who stated that SpaceX and Tesla are working to enhance solar energy production, aiming for an annual capacity of 100 GW within three years. Stocks like Mingyang Smart Energy, Tuojin New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy achieved consecutive limit-ups, although individual stock performances varied significantly. Despite being viewed as a strong rebound opportunity within the commercial aerospace industry, the sector faced challenges amid a broader market retreat [5]. Precious Metals and Energy Sector - International precious metal prices have surged, with spot gold and New York gold prices both exceeding $5,100 per ounce, and spot silver prices nearing $110 per ounce. The non-ferrous metals sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like China Gold, Sichuan Gold, and others achieving consecutive limit-ups. However, many companies' stock prices have already priced in the impact of metal prices on future earnings, raising concerns about potential volatility in stock performance. Additionally, severe weather conditions have driven up natural gas futures prices, leading to a rebound in oil and gas stocks, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation seeing a rise of over 6%, reaching a historical high [6]. Computing Power and Biotech Sector - AWS announced a price increase of approximately 15% for EC2 machine learning capacity blocks, breaking its long-standing tradition of only lowering prices. The computing power leasing sector has shown strength, with stocks like Yuke Technology hitting limit-up. The recent surge in user numbers for Zhizhu and the cash red envelope activities from major tech companies may further intensify demand for computing power. In the biotech sector, news of Nipah virus infections in West Bengal, India, led to a surge in stocks related to virus testing and vaccines, with several stocks hitting limit-up due to heightened risk-averse sentiment [7][8]. Market Outlook - The market exhibited a pattern of rising and then falling throughout the day, with the Shanghai 50 Index briefly rising nearly 2% before ending a nine-day decline. In contrast, the small-cap index experienced a significant adjustment after reaching a new high. The number of stocks hitting limit down approached 40, with nearly 470 stocks declining over 5%, indicating a growing loss effect among individual stocks. Caution is advised as the peak period for earnings forecasts approaches, particularly regarding underperforming stocks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas extraction sector experienced a significant increase of 6.34% on January 26, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas leading the gains, while the overall stock indices showed a decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas (code: 600759) saw a closing price of 4.84, with a rise of 10.00% [1] - Other notable performers included China National Offshore Oil (code: 600938) with a closing price of 33.49, up 6.66%, and Blue Flame Holdings (code: 000968) at 8.37, up 5.28% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The oil and gas extraction sector had a net inflow of 541 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 535 million yuan [1] - Main fund inflows for China National Offshore Oil amounted to 321 million yuan, representing 11.08% of the total, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 386 million yuan, or 13.32% [2] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas had a main fund inflow of 178 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 111 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 40 stocks facing limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 64% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.91% [1] Stock Performance - Silver and non-ferrous metals stocks showed strong performance, with Silver Nonferrous achieving a five-day limit up and Mingyang Smart Energy achieving a three-day limit up [1][3] - The number of stocks with three or more consecutive limit ups decreased to only two, indicating a decline in market enthusiasm [3] - The commercial aerospace sector faced significant corrections, with major stocks like China Satellite and China Satcom hitting the limit down [3] Sector Analysis - Precious metals prices have surged, with spot gold and silver prices breaking through $5,100 and $110 per ounce, respectively, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous sector [7] - The oil and gas sector also saw a rebound due to rising natural gas prices in the U.S., with China National Offshore Oil Corporation's stock rising over 6% to reach a historical high [7] - The "space photovoltaic" concept gained traction following support from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, with several companies in this sector achieving consecutive limit ups [6] Emerging Trends - The recent outbreak of the Nipah virus in West Bengal, India, has led to a surge in stocks related to virus testing and biological vaccines, with multiple stocks hitting the limit up [9][17] - The AI computing power rental concept has strengthened, driven by AWS's price increase for machine learning capacity, indicating a shift in cloud computing pricing logic [8][24] - The healthcare sector is experiencing heightened interest due to the Nipah virus outbreak, with several medical diagnostic companies seeing significant stock price increases [27] Future Outlook - The market is showing signs of volatility, with the small-cap index experiencing a significant pullback after reaching new highs [10] - Investors are advised to remain cautious as the peak period for earnings forecasts approaches, with potential risks for underperforming stocks [10] - The commercial aerospace sector's ability to recover from recent declines will be crucial for its future performance [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced a downturn with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.85%, and the ChiNext down 0.91% [1] - A total of 1,604 stocks rose while 3,771 stocks fell, indicating a broader market weakness [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce for the first time, and silver prices also rising sharply [2] - Notable stocks in this sector included Zhongjin Gold and Xibu Gold, which reached their daily limit [2] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector strengthened, with stocks like Cap Bio and Mike Bio hitting their daily limit due to concerns over a Nipah virus outbreak in India [2][4] - The outbreak has prompted increased monitoring in countries such as Thailand and Nepal [2] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas stocks rallied, with Zhongman Petroleum hitting its daily limit and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rising over 6% to reach a new high [5] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector faced adjustments, with stocks like China Satellite and China Satcom hitting their daily limit [6] Large Sell Orders - Significant sell orders were noted in major stocks, with Zijin Mining seeing over 4.07 billion yuan in sell orders and China Ping An over 2.05 billion yuan [6] Market Sentiment and Policy - Analysts from CITIC Securities indicated that the current reduction in broad-based ETFs by institutional investors may be a strategy to realize profits rather than directly suppressing speculative trading [10] - The report suggests that increasing margin requirements or trading fees could be more effective in cooling market enthusiasm [10]

Market Overview - On January 26, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index opening high but closing lower, both dropping over 1% during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Composite Index by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.91%. The total market turnover reached 3.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 162.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,700 stocks declining [1]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector led the market gains, with Sichuan Gold (001337) achieving four consecutive trading limits in eight days. Other stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139), Hunan Gold (002155), and Shengda Resources (000603) also hit the daily limit, while Zijin Mining (601899) reached a historical high [1]. - On January 26, spot gold prices surpassed $5,100 per ounce, peaking at $5,110.26 per ounce. Silver prices also surged, with spot silver reaching a high of $109.453 per ounce, marking an increase of over 51% in just 17 trading days [3]. Investment Demand and Market Trends - The rising gold prices have significantly boosted market demand for gold investment and reserves, leading to a surge in bank safe deposit box rentals. For instance, at the Shenzhen branch of China Merchants Bank, all 8,000 safe deposit boxes are fully rented, with 500 to 600 customers waiting to rent a box. Given the annual turnover of only 20 to 30 boxes, new customers may have to wait 5 to 6 years [3]. - The A-share flu vaccine sector also showed strength, with stocks like Da'an Gene (002030), Hualan Biological (301207), and Zhijiang Biology hitting the daily limit, while Yongshun Biological surged over 27% [3]. Other Sector Movements - The oil and gas sector saw continued strength, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) reaching a historical high, and other companies like Zhongjie Oil and China Petroleum rising over 5% [6]. - The Tencent Cloud concept experienced localized movements, with stocks like Qunxing Toys (002575) hitting the daily limit and others like Ruijie Networks (301165) rising over 10% following Tencent's announcement of a new AI assistant app [7].