"三桶油"强化能源保供，谋划高质量发展建设世界一流 ——石油化工行业周报第 439 期（20260202—20260208） 要点 2026 年 2 月 8 日 行业研究 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com "三桶油"集团及下属子公司召开年度工作会议，强调能源安全、深化转型 升级。近期"三桶油"集团公司及下属子公司陆续召开 2026 年度工作会议， 总结 2025 年工作和"十四五"发展成就，研究提出"十五五"发展思路和目 标任务，部署 2026 年重点工作。2026 年，"三桶油"集团将做强做优做大 油气主业基本盘，增强能源高效供给能力，发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用；深 入推动炼油化工结构调整和提质升级，着力提升产业链创效水平和整体竞争 力，建设世界一流能源资源集团。 中国石油集团：发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用，为建设能源强国努力奋斗。 （1）中国石油集团强调，到 2030 年，公司要全面实现高质量发展、基本建 成世界一流企业，公司将突出价值创造，坚持向新发展，强化集智攻关，聚焦 治理现代化，树牢底线思维，扎实推进国企改革深化提 ...

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][5][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases into March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach amid seasonal factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16][20] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [1][12] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and tensions with Iran, have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [1][20] - The report anticipates that the average Brent price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [3][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global crude oil demand, with OPEC, IEA, and EIA estimating demand for 2026 at approximately 106.52 million, 104.83 million, and 105.10 million barrels per day, respectively [2][17] - The demand growth for 2027 is expected to be higher, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 126,000 barrels per day [2][17] Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4][5] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical developments, including the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which initially eased risks but later saw a resurgence following military incidents [2][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.83% and 2.55% from the previous week [2][25]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%), while WTI futures were at $63.55, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2][25]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude fell to $54.91, down $0.55 (-0.99%) [2][25]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs totaled 132, down by 2 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels from the previous week [35]. - The active rig count in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412 rigs as of February 6, 2026 [35]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.029 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.50%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [43]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [52]. - Strategic oil inventories increased slightly to 415 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 420 million barrels [52]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3].

证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油产量下降，后续关注美伊谈判进展 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别67.7/63.5美元/桶，较上周分别-0.9/+0.1美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.2/0.2亿桶，环比-324/- 346/+21/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1322万桶/天，环比-48万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周412台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周148部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1603万桶/天，环比-18万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.5%，环比-0.4pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production, with a current output of 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day from the previous period [2]. - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is reported at $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, respectively, with Brent experiencing a decrease of $0.9 and WTI an increase of $0.1 compared to the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with total inventories at 84.51 million barrels, down by 3.24 million barrels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could impact oil supply dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices: Brent and WTI averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively [2]. - Crude oil inventories: Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 84.51 million barrels, with commercial inventories at 42.03 million barrels, showing a decrease of 3.24 million barrels [2]. - Crude oil production: U.S. production stands at 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil demand: U.S. refinery crude processing is at 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil imports and exports: U.S. imports are 6.20 million barrels per day, exports at 4.05 million barrels per day, resulting in a net import of 2.15 million barrels per day [2]. 2. U.S. Refined Oil Products - Refined oil prices: Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $80, $101, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 respectively [2]. - Refined oil inventories: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 26 million barrels, 13 million barrels, and 4 million barrels, with changes of +690, -555, and -66 thousand barrels respectively [2]. - Refined oil production: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production are 9.01 million, 4.81 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, with changes of -570, -10, and -40 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. - Refined oil demand: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption are 8.15 million, 4.31 million, and 1.66 million barrels per day, with changes of -600, +240, and +290 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. 3. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [3].

重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 10.77 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 34.30 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.50 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 32.59 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 推荐 | | 603393.SH | 新天然气 | 29.08 | 2.80 | 2.81 | 3.06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the petrochemical sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, on oil price volatility. The recent talks have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $68.05 per barrel, down 3.73% week-on-week, and WTI futures at $63.55 per barrel, down 2.55% week-on-week [8][10]. - The report suggests that the decline in U.S. crude oil production, influenced by cold weather, has provided some support for oil prices. As of January 30, U.S. crude oil production was 13.22 million barrels per day, a decrease of 480,000 barrels per day week-on-week [11][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: 1) Attention to industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical; 2) Focus on China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and increasing output; 3) Monitor Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas, which are in a growth phase [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, indicating strong investment potential [2]. Market Performance - As of February 6, the petrochemical sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.4%, compared to a 1.3% drop in the CSI 300 index [14][17]. Company Performance - Notable stock movements include Runbei Hangkai, which increased by 16.35%, while PetroChina Oilfield Services saw a decline of 12.32% [20][21]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their effects on oil prices, emphasizing the need to monitor developments closely [10][23]. Petrochemical Data Tracking - The report includes detailed tracking of oil and gas prices, with Brent crude futures at $68.05 per barrel and WTI at $63.55 per barrel, reflecting recent market trends [45].

Core Viewpoint - The provincial government report emphasizes the need to strengthen deep-sea development and utilization, presenting significant growth opportunities for the company and the industry [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The company, as a state-owned energy enterprise, is committed to fulfilling its social responsibilities in energy supply and contributing to the economic development of Jiangsu by providing more clean energy [1] - The company plans to enhance the functionality of the national million-ton LNG reserve base and accelerate the planning of integrated storage and transportation facilities for clean energy such as hydrogen, ammonia, alcohol, and hydrocarbons at the Yancheng Green Energy Port [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The initiatives align with the construction of a new energy system and the green low-carbon transition in Jiangsu, supporting the province's goal of becoming a new growth pole for development [1]

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 证券之星消息，2月6日南向资金增持2191.2万股中国海洋石油（00883.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向 资金增持的有2天，累计净增持628.66万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有13天，累计净增持 7582.16万股。截至目前，南向资金持有中国海洋石油（00883.HK）103.18亿股，占公司已发行普通股 的21.7%。 中国海洋石油有限公司是一家主要从事原油和天然气勘探、开发、生产及销售的中国公司。该公司通过 三个分部开展业务。勘探及生产分部从事上游石油业务，主要包括常规油气业务，页岩油气业务，油砂 业务和其他非常规油气业务。贸易业务分部从事原油贸易业务，主要包括石油产品分成合同下销售归属 于外国合作方的原油及天然气以及第三方原油贸易业务。公司业务分部从事总部管理、资金管理,以及 研究开发等业务。该公司主要在国内及海外市场开展业务。 ...