Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on January 15, with Minshida leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the paper sector included: - Rongsheng Environmental: closed at 13.40, up 1.21% with a trading volume of 29,700 lots [1] - Qifeng New Materials: closed at 8.60, up 0.82% with a trading volume of 78,600 lots [1] - Significant decliners included: - Minshida: closed at 53.00, down 7.70% with a trading volume of 62,500 lots [2] - Zhishi Paper: closed at 5.39, down 3.23% with a trading volume of 735,700 lots [2] Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 268 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Sun Paper: net inflow of 15.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bohui Paper: net inflow of 5.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Qifeng New Materials: net inflow of 1.68 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The RCEP agreement has significantly benefited Zibo's manufacturing sector by providing substantial tariff reductions, enhancing competitiveness in international markets [2][4] Group 1: Tariff Benefits - Zibo's companies have enjoyed over 300 million yuan in tariff reductions since the implementation of RCEP, with a total export value of 6.38 billion yuan benefiting from these reductions [2] - The issuance of RCEP certificates has reached 26,000, allowing local products to enjoy tariff exemptions, which has been crucial for maintaining and expanding market presence in ASEAN countries [2][4] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Companies like Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co., Ltd. have reported significant operational efficiencies, with the ability to self-print RCEP certificates through an online system, saving approximately 200 man-hours annually [3] - The Zibo Customs has optimized its services, achieving over 99% of RCEP certificates processed with "instant review and self-printing," facilitating easier access for businesses [2][3] Group 3: Market Expansion - The RCEP agreement has enabled Zibo companies to transition from passive observers to active participants in the market, enhancing their international competitiveness and expanding their global reach [4] - In 2025, Zibo enterprises applied for over 7,900 RCEP certificates, with a total value of 1.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% and 9.5% respectively [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Bohui Paper Industry Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry is a leading player in the white card paper industry with production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, totaling a capacity of 4.25 million tons, including 2.65 million tons of white card paper. Together with APP's 4 million tons capacity, they account for nearly 40% of the industry share [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Ownership and Management**: APP holds 48.84% of Bohui's shares through market acquisitions and has appointed senior management to enhance operational capabilities. The management team is experienced, and the company has shown a historical revenue CAGR of 15% and a capacity CAGR of 12% [4][5] - **Profitability Fluctuations**: Bohui's profitability per ton has varied significantly with market cycles, peaking at 550 RMB/ton in 2021 and projected to drop to 42 RMB/ton in 2024. The revenue structure shows that whiteboard products account for 61%, cultural paper for 25%, and overseas revenue has increased to 16% [6] - **Market Dynamics**: The paper industry is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with white card companies having raised prices cumulatively by 600 RMB/ton. Factors such as rising hardwood pulp prices, low inventory levels, and profit-seeking behavior are expected to drive white card prices upward [8][9] - **Supply Concerns**: Despite concerns about oversupply, the high concentration of the industry allows major players to collaborate effectively, limiting production and reducing inventory to support price increases. The marginal increase in new supply is expected to alleviate oversupply worries, with prices anticipated to recover from the bottom by 2026 [10] - **Impact of Competitors**: The shutdown of Chenming, which had a production capacity of 2.05 million tons (12% of the industry), has improved overall utilization rates and increased the CR3 ratio, enhancing Bohui's and APP's bargaining power in the market [11] Additional Important Insights - **Financial Performance of APP**: In 2024, APP's revenue is projected to reach 89.4 billion RMB with a profit of approximately 2.8 billion RMB, showcasing its strength as an integrated paper company [12] - **Competitive Advantages**: APP's extensive forestry resources and production capabilities allow for cost reductions in raw materials and energy, enhancing Bohui's operational efficiency. The integration of APP's resources has led to a lower cost of production for Bohui [13][15] - **Resolution of Competition Issues**: APP has committed to resolving competition issues with Bohui by September 2026, which could significantly enhance Bohui's revenue and profit if APP's additional capacities are integrated [16][17] - **Investment Recommendation**: Given the expected improvements in demand, market concentration, and profitability potential, Bohui is considered a highly valuable investment opportunity [18]

Core Insights - The surface sizing agents play a crucial role in enhancing the performance of paper products, with a nearly 100% retention rate, significantly reducing material loss and costs compared to internal sizing agents [1][7] - The market size for China's paper surface sizing agents is projected to reach 5.52 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, driven by rising demands for surface performance in cultural, packaging, and corrugated papers [1][6] - The global market for paper surface sizing agents is expected to grow from 1.09 billion USD in 2024 to 1.114 billion USD in 2025, influenced by the increasing standards for water resistance, oil resistance, and surface strength in packaging and specialty papers [6][10] Industry Overview - Paper surface sizing agents are additives used to enhance the surface strength of paper and prevent liquid penetration, primarily categorized into internal and surface sizing agents [3][4] - Surface sizing agents, mainly composed of styrene-ester copolymers, improve the cross-linking strength and hydrophobicity of paper coatings, offering advantages such as mechanical stability and reduced foaming [3][4] - The demand for surface sizing agents is expected to grow as consumer requirements for paper performance increase, with China being the largest producer and consumer of paper globally [4][6] Market Dynamics - The production and consumption of paper and paperboard in China are projected to reach 136.25 million tons and 136.34 million tons respectively in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.09% and 3.56% [4][5] - The highest market shares in paper and paperboard production in 2024 are held by corrugated base paper (23.08%) and boxboard (22.28%), while boxboard leads in consumption (26.27%) [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The paper surface sizing agent industry is characterized by a large number of small-scale enterprises, with major players dominating the market due to their technological and financial advantages [8][9] - Key companies in the industry include Huasoft Technology, ST Morning Paper, Bohui Paper, and others, with Huasoft Technology being a leading producer of paper chemicals [8][9] Future Trends - The demand for environmentally friendly and multifunctional surface sizing agents is expected to rise, prompting companies to invest in the development of new products such as water-based and bio-based agents [11][12] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to become more intense, with leading companies focusing on technological advancements and new entrants bringing fresh competition, leading to potential industry consolidation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Southwest Securities indicates that the performance of the light industry sector in 2025 is expected to be flat, with cyclical and traditional manufacturing valuations under pressure, while packaging, exports, and personal care sectors show differentiated performance [1] 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, the packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [1] - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that have balanced production capacity, strong demand resilience, and low tariff impact performing better [1] - The personal care sector achieved excess returns in the first half of the year but entered a valuation digestion phase in the second half due to intensified competition in e-commerce channels. However, domestic brands are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product structure optimization and channel expansion [1] 2026 Stock Selection Strategy - The focus will be on undervalued cyclical assets as valuation recovery is anticipated amid changes in the bulk commodity cycle, gradually realizing allocation value [2] - There is a need to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors, favoring high-growth or low-valuation, high-safety stocks [2] - Four main lines of focus for stock selection include: 1. Gradually emphasizing undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by "anti-involution" and traditional peak season factors, with net profit per ton likely to recover [2] 2. Export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities are still considered valuable for allocation, especially those with good growth potential in niche categories and minimal tariff impact [2] 3. Domestic personal care brands are expected to see upward trends in market share and growth potential due to rapid product iteration and competitive pricing [2] 4. New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys are expected to continue their upward trajectory, contributing to the growth of the consumption sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Weigao Medical, Baiya Co., Nobon Co., Yiyi Co., Mengbaihe, and Gujia Home [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on emotional consumption trends and reassessing cyclical value in the light of the 2026 investment strategy for the light industry sector [1][3]. 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [4]. - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that had balanced production capacity and strong demand performing better. The personal care sector saw excess returns in the first half of the year but faced valuation digestion in the second half due to intensified e-commerce competition [4][5]. - The report suggests a dual focus for stock selection in 2026: on one hand, to pay attention to undervalued cyclical assets for valuation recovery; on the other hand, to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors [4]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends four main lines for stock selection: 1. Gradually focus on undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and low channel inventory [4]. 2. Maintain a high allocation to export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities, especially those less affected by tariffs [4]. 3. Invest in high-quality domestic personal care brands benefiting from product structure optimization and channel expansion [4]. 4. Explore new consumption trends in categories like AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys, which are expected to see significant growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ) - Bohui Paper Industry (600966.SZ) - Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) - Mengbaihe (603313.SH) - Gujia Home (603816.SH) [4]. 2025 Sector Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the SW light industry manufacturing sector had an overall increase of 20.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points. The packaging and printing sector performed particularly well with a 35.4% increase [12]. - The report highlights that the packaging sector benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, while the home and entertainment sectors also saw significant gains [12][14]. Export Sector Insights - The report notes that from November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, leading to a gradual recovery in orders. The fluctuations in tariff policies had previously caused delays in orders from U.S. buyers [76]. - The report indicates that the export sector is expected to see a return to competitive pricing against ASEAN countries following the tariff adjustments, which may accelerate industry consolidation [76][81]. Personal Care Sector Trends - The personal care sector is experiencing product structure upgrades and channel benefits, with brands focusing on high-demand segments such as oral care and women's hygiene products [31][50]. - The report forecasts that the market for women's hygiene products will reach 1079.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [50][51]. Baby Care Market Dynamics - The baby care market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2029, with a focus on premiumization and specialized products to counteract declining birth rates [59][66]. - The report highlights that single-child consumption is increasing, which helps mitigate the impact of declining birth rates on the market [69].

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a slight decline of 0.09% on January 8, with Bohui Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Minfeng Special Paper (600235) saw an increase of 2.39%, closing at 6.85 with a trading volume of 93,100 shares and a turnover of 62.97 million yuan [1] - Minshida (920394) rose by 2.06%, closing at 45.10 with a trading volume of 34,100 shares and a turnover of 154 million yuan [1] - Anni Co., Ltd. (002235) increased by 1.69%, closing at 10.22 with a trading volume of 560,000 shares and a turnover of 571 million yuan [1] - Bohui Paper (600966) declined by 1.78%, closing at 6.64 with a trading volume of 174,600 shares and a turnover of 116 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 82.40 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 117 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Sun Paper (002078) experienced a significant net outflow of 40.44 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733) had a net inflow of 13.49 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating some positive interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 3.07% year-to-date and a notable drop of 4.20% over the last five trading days, despite a 10.89% increase over the past 20 days and a 31.35% increase over the past 60 days [2]. Company Overview - Bohui Paper, established on April 29, 1994, and listed on June 8, 2004, is located in Huantai County, Zibo City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of mechanical paper [2]. - The revenue composition of Bohui Paper includes: whiteboard paper (62.22%), cultural paper (25.10%), boxboard paper (6.89%), gypsum face paper (3.04%), and others (2.75%) [2]. - The company is classified under the light industry manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper industry focusing on bulk paper [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper achieved a revenue of 14.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Bohui Paper has distributed a total of 889 million yuan in dividends, with 94.36 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Bohui Paper was 45,800, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.6447 million shares, an increase of 310,200 shares compared to the previous period. Conversely, the Southern CSI 1000 ETF reduced its holdings by 86,800 shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the regenerative medicine sector, highlighting specific companies as key investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The regenerative medicine platform company is positioned in the high-end manufacturing field of neurosurgery, with a projected revenue growth of 30% and a net profit increase of 43% in Q1-Q3 of 2025. The company is expected to enter a product harvest phase from 2025 to 2027, stabilizing net profit margins and increasing profits [1]. - The report emphasizes the benefits of centralized procurement, with the company achieving significant growth by trading price for volume, projecting a 21% revenue increase and a 93% net profit growth in 2024 [1]. - The report identifies new product approvals and expanded indications as key growth drivers, with expectations of a 100% growth rate for certain products from 2025 to 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regenerative Medicine - The regenerative medicine company is expected to see a revenue increase of 30% and a net profit increase of 43% in Q1-Q3 of 2025, entering a product harvest phase from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - The company benefits from centralized procurement, achieving a 21% revenue increase and a 93% net profit growth in 2024 [1]. - New product approvals are anticipated to drive a 100% growth rate from 2025 to 2026 [1]. Automotive - The automotive sector shows a positive outlook with the introduction of a second brand expected to enhance performance significantly compared to Q3 [1]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1,099 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 37% [1]. Paper Industry - The white cardboard paper industry is expected to see a recovery in downstream demand, with the company positioned to benefit from high market concentration and improved pricing power [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 407 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 123% [1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is experiencing high demand, with the agricultural market showing signs of recovery [1]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2,078 million in 2026, maintaining a growth rate of 14% [1]. Mining - The mining sector is benefiting from rising gold and copper prices, with the company expected to see a 54% increase in net profit [1]. - The projected revenue for 2026 is 50,478 million, with a growth rate of 10% [1].

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 31.67%, while facing a slight decline in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 31, Bohui Paper's stock price decreased by 2.17%, trading at 6.76 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 9.037 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 9.21% increase over the last five trading days, an 8.51% increase over the last 20 days, and a 36.29% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper reported a revenue of 14.450 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million CNY [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 889 million CNY, with 94.356 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Bohui Paper was 45,800, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous period, with an average of 29,216 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.46% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.6447 million shares, an increase of 310,200 shares from the previous period [3].