博汇纸业（600966） 白卡龙头迎周期拐点，整合预期打开成长空间 西南证券研究院 轻工研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 1 推荐逻辑：1）白卡纸行业供给增长放缓，供应压力缩减，行业的供需格局有望边际改善，吨盈利或迎 来触底回升；2）需求端看，高端白卡及白卡出口的需求亮眼，同时在咖啡茶饮等增量需求支撑下，预 计需求端仍将保持平稳增长态势；3）博汇纸业作为国内白卡纸龙头，背靠全球浆纸龙头金光集团，成 为其唯一A股上市平台，在同业竞争资产整合完成后，公司的供应链实力进一步增强，有望带来盈利弹 性的充分释放。 行业盈利触底，供给增长放缓，供需格局有望改善。过去几年行业供给大幅释放，供需失衡导致白卡纸 价一度跌至近4000元/吨，纸厂盈利显著承压。进入25年下半年，"反内卷"倡议下龙头停机供给收缩 ，新产能投产速度明显放缓，纸价从25Q4起触底反弹，浆价目前仍在低位盘整，吨纸盈利有望逐步回 升。未来供给结构持续优化，集中度提升，龙头优势进一步夯实。 以纸代塑趋势不减，结构性机会带动消费量增长趋稳。虽然消费需求的暂时疲弱对白卡纸需求形成一定 压制，但考虑到以纸代塑的政策支持、茶饮放量带动食品级白卡需求增长、白卡出口保 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Bohui Paper Industry [4]. Core Insights - The white card paper industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics as supply growth slows down, potentially leading to a rebound in profitability per ton [4]. - Demand for high-end white card paper and exports remains strong, supported by incremental demand from coffee and tea beverages, indicating stable growth in the demand side [4]. - Bohui Paper, as a leading player in the domestic white card paper market, benefits from its backing by the global pulp and paper giant, Golding Group, enhancing its supply chain capabilities and profitability potential [4]. Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry, established in 1994 and listed in 2004, is a leading white card paper manufacturer in China. The company was acquired by Golding Group in 2020, becoming its only A-share listed platform for domestic pulp and paper assets [10][12]. - The company focuses on various paper products, including white card paper, cultural paper, boxboard, and gypsum face paper, with white card paper being its core product [10][12]. - Bohui has production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, continuously optimizing its product structure and expanding into high-value markets to increase market share [10][12]. Industry Analysis - The white card paper industry is currently experiencing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for marginal improvement in profitability as supply growth slows and demand stabilizes [4][36]. - The industry has faced significant supply-demand imbalances in recent years, leading to price declines, but recent initiatives to reduce supply and improve efficiency are expected to support price recovery [4][36]. - The trend of replacing plastic with paper continues to drive demand for white card paper, particularly in food packaging and environmentally friendly applications [39][42]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Bohui Paper to be CNY 186 million, CNY 408 million, and CNY 551 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 54x, 25x, and 18x [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kane Co. has hit the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and positive sentiment towards the company and its peers in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kane Co. has reached its daily trading limit, reflecting significant investor confidence [1] - Other companies in the paper industry, including Bohui Paper, Yueyang Forest Paper, Sun Paper, Wuzhou Special Paper, Yibin Paper, and Hengfeng Paper, have also seen their stock prices rise in response to Kane Co.'s performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the development and production of green and health-friendly packaging materials, specifically in the food-grade paper sector, which includes fluorine-free oil-resistant paper and water-based barrier packaging paper [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is emphasizing the layout of food-grade packaging paper and other green health products [1] - It has the capability for large-scale production of these materials [1] - The products are certified by multiple authoritative organizations, including the EU [1] Group 2: Market Application - The green packaging materials are widely used in various applications such as lunch boxes, cups, and liquid food packaging [1] - The company is continuously increasing its research and market promotion of health-friendly paper-based materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Apple section in the Zhuhai Duty-Free Port marks Apple's first entry into the inbound duty-free channel in China, representing a significant shift in the availability of smart electronic products in this retail format [1][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - The introduction of the Apple section signifies a move away from the previous focus on Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping, allowing for a more accessible shopping experience for travelers frequently crossing the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau border [7]. - This initiative aligns with the Ministry of Finance and other departments' efforts to enhance consumer spending through improved duty-free policies [1]. Group 2: Product Offering - The Apple section features a two-level layout, with the first floor dedicated to product display and the second floor providing services such as checkout, product pickup, and activation [7]. - Initial offerings include the latest generation of iPhones and AirPods, catering to high-demand consumer electronics [7]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - For example, the iPhone 17 256GB is priced at 5,999 yuan officially, while the duty-free price is set at 6,099 Hong Kong dollars (approximately 5,426 yuan), reflecting a nearly 10% discount compared to the official price when considering exchange rate fluctuations [7].

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a rise of 1.58% on February 4, with Bohui Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed significant price increases, with Bohui Paper closing at 7.72, up 5.46%, and Hengda New Materials at 34.34, up 4.70% [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 71.95 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 45.65 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for Bohui Paper reached 247,200 shares and 186 million yuan, respectively [1] - The overall market sentiment in the paper sector was mixed, with some stocks like Hengda New Materials and Changxing Paper showing positive net inflows from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for several listed companies from January 26 to February 1, with notable mentions including Baili Tianheng, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and Great Wall Motors, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market for these stocks [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Baili Tianheng (688506) has a target price increase of 375.97%, with a highest target price set at 1322.00 yuan [2]. - Zexing Pharmaceutical (688266) shows a target price increase of 88.56%, with a highest target price of 166.16 yuan [2]. - Great Wall Motors (601633) has a target price increase of 83.66%, with a highest target price of 38.00 yuan [2]. - Other companies with notable target price increases include Industrial Fulian (601138) at 73.31% and CATL (300750) at 71.71% [2][3]. Broker Recommendations - A total of 265 listed companies received broker recommendations during the period, with Qingdao Bank receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8 [3][4]. - Other companies with multiple recommendations include Xian Dao Intelligent and Wancheng Group, each receiving 5 recommendations [3][4]. Rating Adjustments - Eight companies had their ratings upgraded, including Shanghai Jahwa (600315) from "Hold" to "Buy" and ZTE Corporation (000063) from "Cautious Buy" to "Buy" [5][6]. - Two companies had their ratings downgraded, including Jincheng Shares (603396) from "Buy" to "Hold" and Huasheng Group (603018) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6]. First-Time Coverage - During the same period, 75 instances of first-time coverage were reported, with notable ratings including Shaanxi Tourism (603402) receiving a "Outperform Industry" rating and Bichu Electronics (688188) receiving a "Buy" rating [7].

| 华安研究 2026年2月金股组合 | 归母净利润 | （百万元 | ） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入 | （百万元） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(其余有说明 | ) | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Bohui Paper Industry has seen a stock price increase of 5.06%, reaching 7.48 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10 billion CNY [1] - Bohui Paper Industry, established on April 29, 1994, and listed on June 8, 2004, is located in Zibo City, Shandong Province, and primarily engages in the production and sales of mechanical paper [1] - The company's main revenue composition includes: whiteboard paper 62.22%, cultural paper 25.10%, boxboard paper 6.89%, gypsum face paper 3.04%, and others 2.75% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhongyou Fund has a significant position in Bohui Paper Industry, with its fund Zhongyou Small and Medium Cap Flexible Allocation Mixed A holding 880,000 shares, accounting for 2.99% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 316,800 CNY today [2] - The fund manager, Cao Si, has been in position for 11 years and 252 days, with the fund's total asset scale currently at 324 million CNY [2]

Core Viewpoint - The paper sector in the A-share market has seen significant gains, with multiple companies experiencing notable increases in stock prices, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Songyang Resources (603863) reached a limit-up of 10.00%, with a total market value of 4.412 billion and a year-to-date increase of 8.07% [2]. - Yueyang Forest Paper (600963) increased by 9.28%, with a market capitalization of 10.1 billion and a year-to-date rise of 23.55% [2]. - Mindada (920394) rose by 6.82%, with a market value of 8.683 billion and a year-to-date increase of 45.09% [2]. - Hengfeng Paper (600356) saw a gain of 4.73%, with a market capitalization of 2.847 billion and a year-to-date increase of 8.54% [2]. - Hengda New Materials (301469) increased by 4.65%, with a market value of 2.958 billion and a year-to-date rise of 8.86% [2]. - Bohui Paper (600966) rose by 4.21%, with a market capitalization of 9.919 billion and a year-to-date increase of 8.64% [2]. - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) increased by 2.68%, with a market value of 6.755 billion and a year-to-date rise of 5.11% [2]. - Qingshan Paper (600103) saw a gain of 2.40%, with a market capitalization of 8.605 billion, but a year-to-date decline of 8.35% [2]. - Kane Co. (002012) increased by 2.23%, with a market value of 2.997 billion, and a year-to-date decline of 0.62% [2].