Group 1 - The rise in risk aversion has driven precious metals higher, with spot gold surpassing $4870 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 2.3%. UBS strategist Joni Teves expects gold prices to have upward momentum in the first half of the year, potentially reaching $5000 per ounce if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence persist [1] - Silver is benefiting from the rise in gold prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, with expectations to challenge $100 per ounce this year [1] - The copper market is tightening due to demand from energy transition, leading to an expected increase in price levels [1] Group 2 - As of November, the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, indicating a temporarily stable labor market, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April [1] - In the medium to long term, risks related to U.S. federal government debt remain, and the dollar's status is facing challenges, suggesting continued opportunities for gold in the context of a global monetary system restructuring [1] Group 3 - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.76%, with component stocks such as silver and tungsten companies showing significant gains, including a 10.01% increase for silver companies and 9.92% for tungsten companies [1] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index tracks 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum [2]

Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示："特朗普周末对欧洲国家加征关税，并加大力度胁迫以吞并 格陵兰岛，导致人们对美国失去信任。黄金价格的波动反映了人们对全球地缘政治紧张局势的担 忧。""显然，投资者正在抛售美元，抛售美债，尤其是长期国债，转而买入黄金，因为目前市场对黄金 的信心高于对美元的信心。" A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，白银有色、国城矿业、四川黄金、中国瑞林、湖南白银、 招金黄金涨停，南矿集团涨超8%，西部黄金、赤峰黄金涨超7%，豫光金铅、晓程科技、中金黄金涨超 6%，株冶集团、山金国际、盛达资源、鹏欣资源涨超5%。 受避险需求和美元走软的提振，金价飙升至每盎司4870.96美元的历史新高。美国总统特朗普对格陵兰 岛的觊觎可能会引发与欧洲的贸易战，并可能动摇北约。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 息市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601212 | 白银有色 | 1 | 10.01 | 635亿 | 46.50 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 10 | 10.01 | 331亿 | ...

Core Insights - The international gold price has surged to a historic high of $4800 per ounce, driven by geopolitical instability, with a monthly increase exceeding 10% [1][6] - Poland's central bank has approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top ten countries globally in gold reserves [2][7] - The World Gold Council predicts a continued trend of central banks increasing gold holdings, with 95% of surveyed banks expecting to raise their reserves in the next 12 months [3][8] Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The current gold price has reached $4800 per ounce, marking a significant increase of nearly 0.8% in a single day [1][6] - Major financial institutions have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, with estimates ranging from $4150 to $4900 per ounce for 2026 [3][8] - The demand for gold is driven by diversification needs among institutional and retail investors, as well as central banks responding to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][9] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Poland's central bank aims to increase its gold holdings from 550 tons to 700 tons, citing gold's zero credit risk and its ability to enhance economic stability [2][7] - The share of gold in Poland's foreign exchange reserves was estimated at 28.22% as of December last year, indicating a rapid change in reserve structure among central banks [2][7] - Russia has seen its gold reserves increase in value by over $216 billion since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, highlighting gold's role in maintaining financial stability amid sanctions [3][8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock and ETF markets have reacted positively to rising gold prices, with significant gains observed in gold-related stocks across both A-share and Hong Kong markets [2][7] - Gold jewelry prices have also risen, with multiple brands reporting prices above 1490 yuan per gram, reaching new recent highs [1][6] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish, with expectations that gold could challenge the $5000 per ounce mark in the near future [4][9]

Group 1: Key Insights on Precious Metals - The upward momentum for precious metals, particularly gold, is strong, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [2] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated in January [2][3] Group 2: Key Insights on Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are experiencing high-level consolidation, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4] - Domestic copper inventory is reported at 213,515 tons, showing an increase of 4,600 tons from January 9, while SHFE inventory also reflects a similar trend [4] - Aluminum prices are at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons, a decrease of 9,825 tons [6] Group 3: Key Insights on Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices are at 41,4640 yuan per ton, up 639.40 yuan per ton, indicating a positive trend [8] - Antimony prices have rebounded, with domestic antimony ingot prices increasing by 0.2 million yuan per ton from January 9 [10] Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [13] - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply dynamics [14] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" as supply constraints are expected to support tin prices [14] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" following a rebound in prices after a six-month decline [14] Group 5: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), and China National Gold (600916) [15] - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Western Mining (601168) [15] - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co. (000933) and Yunnan Aluminum (000807) [15] - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. (000960) and Hunan Gold (002155) [15]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月21日，贵金属板块开盘领涨，湖南白银涨超7%，晓程科技、山东黄金涨超5%，赤峰 黄金、山金国际、西部黄金、招金黄金等跟涨。 ...

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry have released optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, driven by product price increases and production growth, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, supported by increased production and sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 70% to 81%, with gold production expected to be approximately 14.4 tons and sales prices rising by about 49% [2]. - Northern Rare Earth forecasts a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 116.67% to 134.60%, driven by new technologies and products [2]. - Jinchuan Magnetics expects a net profit of 660 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161%, attributed to record high product sales in various applications [2]. - Xianglu Tungsten Industry predicts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, supported by rising tungsten prices and increased sales orders [3]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from improved production and cost management [3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, driven by increased production and effective cost control [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The positive performance forecasts are attributed to multiple factors, including government policy support, improved supply-demand dynamics, and strategic upgrades by companies [4]. - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage, and artificial intelligence are expected to drive sustained demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly lithium, nickel, rare earths, and tungsten [4].

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing significant growth due to rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Companies in this sector are leveraging their resource advantages and operational efficiencies to capitalize on these market conditions. Company Summaries - **Sichuan Gold (001337)**: Located in Sichuan, the company benefits from high-quality gold resources and low-cost mining advantages. It is expected to gain from rising gold prices and regional resource integration policies, enhancing its growth potential [1]. - **Zhaojin Gold (000506)**: A well-established player in the gold industry, Zhaojin has a comprehensive supply chain and strong technical capabilities. The company is positioned to benefit from increased gold demand due to geopolitical tensions and has a robust hedging strategy to stabilize profits [2]. - **Shandong Gold International (000975)**: This company operates globally, focusing on low-cost mining resources. It is expected to thrive amid geopolitical conflicts, leveraging its operational experience and resource management to respond to international gold price fluctuations [3]. - **Xiaocheng Technology (300139)**: Focused on intelligent mining solutions and African resource development, the company is set to benefit from both rising gold prices and increased demand for mining technology services [4]. - **China National Gold (600489)**: As a leading state-owned enterprise, it has the largest gold reserves in China. The company is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing domestic gold supply and prices amid rising global demand [5]. - **Western Gold (601069)**: Based in Xinjiang, the company benefits from high-quality resources and regional policies supporting resource integration. It is positioned as a key player in ensuring domestic gold supply [6][7]. - **Chifeng Gold (600988)**: A rapidly expanding company that has increased its resource reserves through acquisitions. It is expected to enhance profit margins through optimized mining processes amid rising gold prices [8]. - **Hengbang Shares (002237)**: A leading gold smelting company, it benefits from its ability to process complex ores and is positioned to gain from rising gold prices and increased demand for silver recovery [9]. - **Shandong Gold (600547)**: The absolute leader in the gold industry, it has the largest resource reserves and production capacity. The company is expected to stabilize market expectations and supply amid rising gold prices [10]. - **Hunan Silver (002716)**: A core player in the silver industry, it benefits from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry, enhancing its profit margins [11]. - **Zijin Mining (601899)**: A major player in the non-ferrous metals sector, it has a global footprint in gold mining and is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions [12]. - **Yintai Gold (000975)**: This company has a strong resource base and low-cost mining operations, positioning it well to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [13]. - **Shengda Resources (000603)**: A leading silver company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry, while also expanding into gold resource development [14]. - **Yuguang Gold Lead (600531)**: A leader in lead and zinc smelting, it has strong silver recovery capabilities and is expected to benefit from rising silver prices amid increased industrial demand [15]. - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: A significant gold producer, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and regional resource development policies, enhancing its growth potential [16]. - **Zhongrun Resources (000506)**: Focused on overseas gold projects, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leveraging its operational experience [17]. - **Yuancheng Gold (600766)**: This company is focused on gold exploration and development, benefiting from rising gold prices and regional resource integration [18]. - **Xingye Mining (000426)**: A multi-metal mining company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry [19]. - **Jin Gui Silver Industry (002716)**: A leading silver smelting company, it is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand from the photovoltaic industry [20]. - **Western Mining (601168)**: A core player in the non-ferrous metals sector, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for new energy metals [21]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: A global mining giant, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions, leveraging its diverse resource portfolio [22]. - **Guizhou Platinum Industry (600459)**: A leader in precious metals, it is expected to benefit from rising demand for platinum and palladium amid global energy transitions [23]. - **Nanmin Group (001360)**: A mining equipment leader, it is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased demand for mining equipment amid a booming gold market [24]. - **Xingye Silver Tin (000426)**: This company is expanding its global gold asset portfolio and is expected to benefit from rising silver prices and increased demand for gold [25].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - In the first month of the new year, spot gold has increased by over 8%, rising more than $380 [1] - Major gold mining companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, all of which have strong resource reserves and cost control capabilities [3] - Shandong Gold is noted for its high correlation with gold prices, indicating significant earnings elasticity [3] Group 2: Silver Market Overview - Silver resources are led by companies like Silver Mountain Mining, which has a silver reserve of 8,382 tons, ranking first in Asia [4] - Shengda Resources focuses on silver mining and refining, with 92% of its business in silver, showcasing strong profitability linked to silver prices [5] - Hunan Silver is the only listed company in China primarily focused on silver, with a full industry chain from mining to refining [7] Group 3: Platinum Group Metals - Companies like Zhongxin Metal and Guoyuan Platinum are involved in the recovery and production of platinum group metals, with significant future production expected [7] - The demand for palladium is anticipated to rise due to its use in automotive emissions control, benefiting companies that produce it as a byproduct [7] - GreenMei is a leader in the recycling of electronic and automotive waste, with a substantial capacity for recovering precious metals [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 3.47% compared to the previous trading day, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - Hunan Silver's stock price rose by 10.03% to 12.40, with a trading volume of 4.6076 million shares and a transaction value of 543.8 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 546 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 612 million yuan [1] - Hunan Silver had a main fund net inflow of 3.28 billion yuan, representing 6.04% of its total trading volume [2] - The trading data indicates that while some stocks like Hunan Silver saw positive main fund inflows, others like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold experienced significant net outflows [2]