公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 工业富联(601138) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 工业富联 2025 三季报点评：Q3 净利润 突破百亿，AI 业务大幅提升 工业富联 2025 半年报点评：净利润处 于预告上限，AI CapEx 增长核心受益 工业富联 25H1 业绩预告点评：Q2 归母 净利润同比增长约 50%，AI 业务持续释 放业绩 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 工业富联 2025 业绩预增点评：Q4 业绩继续 高增，AI 驱动进入加速兑现期 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 工业富联(601138) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 工业富联 2025 三季报点评：Q3 净利润 突破百亿，AI 业务大幅提升 工业富联 2025 半年报点评：净利润处 于预告上限，AI CapEx 增长核心受益 工业富联 25H1 业绩预告点评：Q2 归母 净利润同比增长约 50%，AI 业务持续释 放业绩 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 工业富联 2025 业绩预增点评：Q4 业绩继续 高增，AI 驱动进入加速兑现期 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. (Industrial Fulian) announced a significant increase in its 2025 annual performance, with both annual and fourth-quarter operating results expected to grow substantially. However, due to a downward adjustment in industry valuation, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) lowered its target price by 18% [1][8]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.6 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5 billion to 5.1 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of 56% to 63%. After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit is 12.4 billion to 13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37 billion to 43 billion yuan, marking a growth of 43% to 50% [3][10]. - For the full year 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9 billion to 12.5 billion yuan compared to 2024, reflecting a growth of 51% to 54%. After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit is 34 billion to 34.6 billion yuan, up 10.6 billion to 11.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a growth of 45% to 48% [4][11]. Business Segments - The cloud computing sector is particularly strong, with server revenue from cloud service providers expected to grow over 1.8 times year-on-year in 2025. In Q4, this business is projected to grow over 30% quarter-on-quarter and over 2.5 times year-on-year. AI servers are identified as a core growth driver, with revenue expected to increase over 3 times year-on-year in 2025, and over 50% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 [5][11]. - In the communication and mobile network equipment sector, the company’s high-speed switch business continues to show robust growth. Revenue from switches above 800G is expected to increase by 13 times year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 showing a growth of over 4.5 times year-on-year. This growth is attributed to strong demand from the AI industry [12]. Market Position and Future Outlook - CICC provided an objective evaluation of Industrial Fulian's performance, indicating that the earnings forecast aligns with previous expectations. The upcoming release of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin cabinet is expected to enhance the company's market position, with potential for increased shipment volumes and profit margins due to higher complexity and integration [6][12]. - CICC has cautiously adjusted the company's 2025 net profit forecast down by 2.7% to 35.5 billion yuan, while maintaining a 2026 net profit forecast of 75.8 billion yuan and introducing a 2027 forecast of 89.8 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 times for 2026 and 13.4 times for 2027 [7][13].

Core Viewpoint - Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Industrial Fulian") has announced a significant increase in its performance for the year 2025 and the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Industrial Fulian expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.6 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5 billion to 5.1 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of 56% to 63% [1] - The company anticipates a full-year net profit of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 11.9 billion to 12.5 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 51% to 54% [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for Q4 2025 is 12.4 billion to 13.0 billion yuan, up 3.7 billion to 4.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a growth of 43% to 50% [1] Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The strong growth in core business and continuous optimization of product structure are the main reasons for the performance increase [2] - In the cloud computing sector, revenue from cloud service provider servers is expected to grow over 1.8 times year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 showing a sequential growth of over 30% and a year-on-year growth of over 2.5 times [2] - AI server revenue is projected to increase over 3 times year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 showing a sequential growth of over 50% and a year-on-year growth of over 5.5%, driven by the delivery of higher-priced NVIDIA GB300 cabinets [2] - The high-speed switch business in communication and mobile network equipment is expected to see a year-on-year revenue increase of 13 times for 800G and above switches in 2025, with Q4 showing a year-on-year growth of over 4.5% [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the Q4 2025 net profit growth of 56%-63% continues the trend of high profit growth from Q3, and they maintain a target price of 100.0 yuan with a "buy" rating [3] - CICC stated that the performance forecast aligns with their previous expectations, highlighting 2026 as a key year for AI computing power, with continued growth in AI server and 800G switch shipments [3] - CICC has adjusted its target price down by 18% to 77.68 yuan while maintaining an "outperform" rating, expecting the current stock price to correspond to P/E ratios of 15.9 times and 13.4 times for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 28% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a structural trend driven by industrial trends and price cycles, with clear differentiation in performance across industries [21]. Group 1: High Growth Companies - Industrial Fulian (601138) expects a net profit of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51% to 54%, driven by a surge in AI server revenue and a 13-fold increase in 800G switch business [5]. - Xizang Zhuofeng (600338) anticipates a net profit of 44.15 million to 53.96 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 92.28% to 135.01%, benefiting from rising non-ferrous metal prices and increased production [6]. - Changchuan Technology (300604) forecasts a net profit of 1.25 billion to 1.4 billion yuan, a growth of 172.67% to 205.39%, due to strong demand for semiconductor testing equipment [6]. - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615) expects a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan, a growth of 131.14% to 188.92%, supported by increasing demand in the wind power sector [6]. - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. (600389) predicts a net profit of 480 million to 580 million yuan, a growth of 113.90% to 158.47%, driven by improved agricultural demand and product price increases [7]. Group 2: Notable Trends in Specific Sectors - The AI computing demand is robust, with companies like Industrial Fulian and Huafeng Technology benefiting from the explosive growth in AI server and data center construction [22]. - The resource sector, represented by Xizang Zhuofeng and Fangda Special Steel, shows significant performance due to product price increases and favorable exchange rate changes [23]. - The renewable energy and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted by Mingyang Smart Energy's performance in offshore wind power and Ailis's growth in lung cancer precision treatment, reflecting strong policy support and demand [24]. Group 3: Companies Facing Declines or Losses - Jiukang Bio (300406) expects a net profit of 180 million to 218 million yuan, a decline of 66.21% to 59.07%, due to policy impacts on the medical industry and reduced profitability in the in vitro diagnostics sector [17]. - GeKao Micro (688728) anticipates a net profit of 38 million to 57 million yuan, a decrease of 69.49% to 79.66%, affected by intensified competition in low-pixel products and significant exchange losses [18]. - Haohua Energy (601101) forecasts a net profit of 41.93 million to 56.93 million yuan, a decline of 59.55% to 45.08%, due to falling coal prices despite increased sales volume [18]. Group 4: Overall Market Analysis - The performance differentiation among companies highlights the impact of price declines and demand pressures, particularly in industries like lithium and coal, where companies like Yongshan Lithium and Gansu Energy face significant challenges [25]. - The core drivers of current performance growth include artificial intelligence, semiconductor localization, resource price cycles, renewable energy policies, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while sectors under pressure are linked to declining commodity prices and intense competition [25].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 51% to 54% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the AI server and switch markets [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, an increase of 11.9 billion to 12.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - For Q4 2025, the expected net profit is between 12.6 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56% to 63% [1] - The average daily profit for 2025 is projected to be nearly 100 million yuan [1] Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The growth in net profit is primarily attributed to increased shipments of servers and switches, particularly for cloud service providers [1] - Revenue from cloud service provider servers is expected to grow over 180% year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 revenue showing a month-on-month increase of over 30% and a year-on-year increase of over 250% [1] - AI server revenue is projected to grow over 50% quarter-on-quarter and over 550% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Industrial Fulian holds a 73.8% market share in the 800G high-speed switch segment, with revenue from this segment expected to increase by 1300% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI, with expectations of steady growth in AI server and 800G switch shipments [2] - Industrial Fulian is a key foundry for Nvidia, which is expected to enhance profit margins with the introduction of the next-generation Rubin cabinet [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The strong financial performance supports substantial dividend payouts, with a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 6.55 billion yuan, which is 54.07% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2] - Over the past three years, the company has distributed and repurchased over 36.6 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, gaining 6.75 points or 0.16% [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 42.82 points or 0.3% [4]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, decreasing by 19.05 points or 0.57% [4]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 49.46 points or 2.63%, closing at 1831.10 [4]. Sector Highlights - The liquor sector saw a significant surge, with stocks like Kweichow Moutai rising over 8%, and nearly 20 liquor stocks hitting the daily limit up [3][5]. - Oil and gas stocks continued their strong performance, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas achieving five consecutive limit-ups [7]. - The AI application sector was active, particularly in short drama and gaming themes, while sectors like semiconductors and commercial aerospace experienced notable pullbacks [3][5]. Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of capital into sectors such as media, food and beverage, and real estate, with Kweichow Moutai, Bluefocus, and Wuliangye receiving net inflows of 3.339 billion, 2.898 billion, and 1.703 billion respectively [9]. - Conversely, significant net outflows were observed in semiconductor and non-ferrous metal sectors, with companies like Industrial Fulian, Sungrow Power, and SMIC facing sell-offs of 6.531 billion, 1.787 billion, and 1.427 billion respectively [9]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the index faces pressure above and support below, emphasizing the need to monitor changes in trading volume [11]. - Dexun Securities suggested that the index is likely to maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term [12]. - Dongwu Securities indicated that if trading volume aligns effectively, there is potential for the market to reach new highs in the short term [12].

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 264.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][6] - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% and 0.57%, respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw a surge, with Kweichow Moutai rising over 8%, and nearly 20 stocks in the sector hitting the daily limit [2] - Oil and gas stocks continued to perform strongly, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas achieving five consecutive trading limits in seven days [4] - The semiconductor, computing hardware, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robot sectors experienced noticeable pullbacks [2] Individual Stock Highlights - Notable gainers in the liquor sector included: - Jinzhongzi Wine: +10.04% [3] - Liquor stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye also saw increases of +10% [3] - In the oil and gas sector, Keli Co., Ltd. surged by 29.99%, while Tongyuan Petroleum and Qianeng Hengxin rose by 20.04% and 20.00%, respectively [5] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the media, food and beverage, and real estate sectors, while outflows were noted in the semiconductor, non-ferrous metals, and home appliance sectors [9] - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Kweichow Moutai (3.339 billion yuan), Bluefocus (2.898 billion yuan), and Wuliangye (1.703 billion yuan) [10] - Conversely, Industrial Fulian, Sungrow Power, and SMIC faced net outflows of 6.531 billion yuan, 1.787 billion yuan, and 1.427 billion yuan, respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the index faces pressure above and support below, emphasizing the need to monitor changes in trading volume [11] - Dexun Securities suggested that the index is likely to maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term [11] - Dongwu Securities indicated that if trading volume effectively supports the market, there is potential for the market to reach new highs in the short term [11]

Core Insights - The main focus of the news is the significant outflow of capital from various stocks, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics. Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Industrial Fulian experienced the highest capital outflow of 5.09%, totaling 5.444 billion yuan [1][2] - Sunshine Power saw a capital outflow of 1.558 billion yuan with a decline of 4.92% [1][2] - China Aluminum had a capital outflow of 1.452 billion yuan, but its stock price increased by 3.49% [1][2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals recorded a capital outflow of 1.204 billion yuan with a notable increase of 10.06% in stock price [1][2] - Semiconductor company SMIC faced a capital outflow of 1.109 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.2% [1][2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer electronics sector, represented by Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision, showed significant capital outflows of 5.444 billion yuan and 1.068 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Sunshine Power, experienced a capital outflow of 1.558 billion yuan [1][2] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including China Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, had mixed results with capital outflows of 1.452 billion yuan and 1.204 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The semiconductor sector, represented by SMIC, faced a capital outflow of 1.109 billion yuan [1][2] Group 3: Additional Stock Movements - Other notable stocks with significant capital outflows include: - Luoyang Molybdenum with 1.080 billion yuan and a slight decrease of 0.04% [1][2] - Hunan Silver with a capital outflow of 1.062 billion yuan and an increase of 4.95% [1][2] - Xiamen Tungsten with a capital outflow of 0.821 billion yuan and a decline of 7.11% [1][3] - The electronics components sector, represented by Huadian Co. and Shenghong Technology, also saw capital outflows of 0.895 billion yuan and 0.740 billion yuan respectively [1][3]

Group 1 - CPO and other computing hardware stocks experienced a downward trend on January 29, with notable declines in share prices [2] - Yidong Electronics saw a drop of over 9%, while Shengyi Technology fell by more than 6% [2] - Industrial Fulian and Sihui Fushi both decreased by over 5%, with Huafeng Technology and Changguang Huaxin also following suit [2]