● 本报记者何昱璞 随着国家电网公司"十五五"期间4万亿元投资蓝图的发布，一条条跨越千里的电力"主动脉"进入密集建 设期。日前，新疆维吾尔自治区发展改革委发布公告，公开征集民营企业参与疆电(南疆)送电川渝特高 压直流工程投资。业内人士表示，这一举措也标志着我国特高压建设正积极探索更加多元化的投融资模 式，为行业发展注入新的动力，相关产业链上市公司有望受益。 政策持续支持 在国家能源战略的明确指引下，特高压建设已进入系统化、规模化推进的新阶段。 2025年以来，国家发改委、国家能源局等多部门出台系列配套政策，在项目审批、用地、环评等关键环 节为特高压工程开辟"绿色通道"。目前，大同—怀来—天津南、蒙西—京津冀等特高压工程已进入施工 高峰；浙江特高压交流环网、攀西特高压交流等工程前期工作加快推进，预计将于2026年上半年集中开 工建设。 国家电网数据显示，截至2025年底，我国已累计建成特高压工程42项，华东、华北、华中、西南地区特 高压交流骨干网架已基本形成，能源资源配置能力与系统韧性显著增强。业内人士分析称，随着大型风 光基地陆续投产，配套外送通道的建设需求将持续释放，未来三年特高压项目将迎来核准与开工的高峰 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant investment plan of 4 trillion yuan by the State Grid Corporation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a new phase in the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) power transmission systems [1][2] - The involvement of private enterprises in UHV projects, as evidenced by the Xinjiang UHV project, indicates a shift towards diversified investment models in the sector, which is expected to inject new momentum into industry development [1][3] Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have introduced a series of supportive policies since 2025, facilitating project approvals and environmental assessments for UHV projects [2] - By the end of 2025, China is expected to have completed 42 UHV projects, significantly enhancing energy resource allocation capabilities and system resilience [2] Exploration of Diverse Development Paths - The Xinjiang UHV project, with a total investment of 31.1 billion yuan, will allow private enterprises to invest, marking a significant breakthrough in private capital participation in state-led UHV construction [2][3] - The project aims to transport over 40 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, primarily harnessing solar and wind resources from the southern Xinjiang region [3] Industry Chain Benefits - The acceleration of UHV construction and investment innovation is expected to maintain high prosperity across the entire industry chain, with significant orders for upstream equipment manufacturers [4] - Companies like China Xidian, a core supplier of UHV equipment, reported a 29.27% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities, indicating a substantial growth in order backlog [4] Strategic Importance - UHV infrastructure is increasingly recognized as a national-level key infrastructure that ensures energy security, promotes clean energy consumption, and stimulates effective investment [5] - The collaborative push from policies, funding, and market dynamics is leading the UHV industry into a new phase of high-quality development, with industry chain companies poised to benefit continuously [5]

Group 1 - The power industry is expected to achieve high-quality development as it enters a year of comprehensive marketization, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and accelerated reforms in the electricity system [3][7][8] - The electricity market reform is set to fully unfold in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with significant policies introduced in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan that will have far-reaching impacts [3][11][12] - The core idea of the electricity reform is to reflect the different values of power sources (energy value, capacity value, adjustment value, and clean value) in market pricing, which has been historically dominated by energy value due to the predominance of coal power [8][10] Group 2 - The reform is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) and distribution networks, with UHV construction likely to speed up again as green electricity demand rises [3][16][24] - The investment in distribution networks has been low, with a continuous decline in the investment ratio, but this is expected to change as the demand for reliable power supply increases [28][34][41] - The introduction of capacity pricing for UHV and distribution networks is anticipated to stabilize project returns and promote the development of related projects [26][41] Group 3 - The surge in AI investments is projected to significantly increase electricity demand in the U.S., with OpenAI planning to deploy over 250GW of computing power by 2033, which could lead to a substantial electricity shortfall [45][49] - The U.S. electricity demand has been stagnant, but projections indicate that by 2030, peak load could approach 1000GW, driven largely by data centers [49][51] - The anticipated increase in electricity demand from AI investments presents a significant opportunity for companies involved in power generation and distribution [45][49] Group 4 - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve, with domestic companies accelerating their international expansion as domestic bidding volumes remain high and prices trend upward [3][4] - Companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Industry are recommended for investment due to their competitive advantages in cost and market position [3][4]

Market Overview - A-shares showed resilience against external market pressures, with major indices recovering after a low opening, resulting in the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.40 points (0.11%) to 4080.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 90.46 points (0.65%) to 14043.17 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 21.17 points (0.65%) to 3281.45 points [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Cangzhou Dahua, Jinniu Chemical, Baichuan Co., and Baihehua hitting the daily limit [1] - The humanoid robot concept stocks were active, with companies such as Wuzhou Xinchun, Liancheng Precision, and Tianqi Co. also reaching the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed signs of recovery, with Hunan Gold and Xianglu Tungsten hitting the daily limit [1] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector opened strong, with stocks like Te Yi Pharmaceutical reaching the daily limit [1] Policy Support - The Chinese government, through the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, issued a development plan for the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming for a collaborative development system by 2030, which is expected to boost the sector's growth [2] Price Dynamics - The price of disperse dyes surged due to a significant increase in the cost of upstream key intermediates, rising from 25,000 yuan/ton to 38,000 yuan/ton, a more than 50% increase, which is expected to drive up prices in the textile dyeing industry as demand increases post-Spring Festival [3] Market Challenges - The liquor sector faced downward pressure, with stocks like Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down, attributed to a decline in demand following the consumption peak around the Spring Festival and increased competition leading to price cuts [4] - AI application stocks experienced declines, with companies like Yaowang Technology and Zhejiang Wenhu falling to the daily limit due to concerns over technology maturity and unclear business models [5] - The optical module and CPO sectors continued to adjust, with stocks like Yuanjie Technology and Xinyisheng dropping over 6% as market expectations normalized [6] Institutional Insights - Zhongjin Securities noted that despite external pressures, there are no typical bull market top signals in Chinese stocks, with ample liquidity and improving earnings, suggesting a continued positive outlook for Chinese asset revaluation [7] - Tianfeng Securities highlighted the fragility of market sentiment, indicating that any news could trigger short-term sell-offs, particularly in the gold market [7] - Huachuang Securities observed a strong recovery in consumer markets expected for the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by government-led consumption initiatives, suggesting potential growth in sectors like dining, tourism, and retail [7]

Core Viewpoint - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous period. This indicates a clear high-growth trend in China's power grid investments, leading to unprecedented market expectations for the "power grid cycle" [2]. Investment Dimensions - The power system can be divided into generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption. The investment in power grid projects can be categorized into three dimensions: trunk network/super high voltage, smart grid/digitalization, and distribution and consumption equipment [10]. - Trunk network/super high voltage investments focus on primary equipment for physical transmission channels, characterized by large single amounts and long construction cycles, typically requiring 2-2.5 years from approval to operation [10]. - Smart grid/digitalization investments pertain to secondary equipment, which includes control systems and automation, with shorter delivery cycles of 0.5-1 year and more stable revenue driven by both new line construction and upgrades of existing networks [11]. - Distribution and consumption side investments target distributed energy access and end-users, characterized by fragmented orders and fast turnover, with profits recognized in line with annual grid construction progress [11]. Company Analysis - Group A companies, such as Pinggao Electric and China XD Electric, exhibit strong cyclical performance linked to super high voltage construction, with profits closely tied to specific project completion timelines [13]. - Group B, represented by State Grid NARI, shows strong certainty and anti-cyclicality in its performance, driven by the increasing complexity of the power grid and technological premiums rather than direct dependence on grid investment fluctuations [15]. - Group C focuses on the end of the power grid, emphasizing access and consumption, with companies like Samsung Medical experiencing accelerated profit growth due to the shift from urbanization-driven to consumption-driven investments, particularly in response to the rapid growth of distributed solar energy [17]. New Power System Cycle - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" power grid cycle differs from previous ones, with its driving factors shifting from "scale expansion" to "reconstruction of the power grid under a new power system." The main challenge has evolved to system stability and capacity for renewable energy integration [20]. - It is anticipated that a significant portion of the 4 trillion yuan investment will be allocated to addressing the randomness and volatility of renewable energy sources. Key factors influencing the industry include cost fluctuations of raw materials, technological upgrades, investment policies, and supply-demand dynamics [20].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable losses in both percentage and monetary terms across multiple sectors, particularly in metals, communication equipment, and renewable energy [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Zijin Mining experienced a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decline of 4.37% [2] - Xinyi Technology saw an outflow of 1.816 billion, with a decrease of 4.06% [2] - Aerospace Development had a capital outflow of 1.691 billion, reflecting a drop of 1.54% [2] - TBEA reported an outflow of 1.553 billion, with a decline of 5.05% [2] - Goldwind Technology faced a capital outflow of 1.217 billion, down by 9.02% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum experienced an outflow of 1.203 billion, with a decrease of 6.34% [2] - BlueFocus Media saw an outflow of 1.145 billion, down by 5.76% [2] - Longi Green Energy had a capital outflow of 1.106 billion, with a decline of 5.59% [2] - Zhongjin Gold experienced an outflow of 1.033 billion, down by 5.20% [2] - Shanzhi High-Tech saw an outflow of 0.975 billion, with a decrease of 6.23% [2] - Sungrow Power Supply experienced an outflow of 0.963 billion, down by 4.12% [2] Group 2: Additional Stocks and Their Performance - Xinyi Silver experienced a capital outflow of 0.850 billion, with a decline of 6.33% [3] - China Western Power saw an outflow of 0.833 billion, down by 7.14% [3] - Inovance Technology had a capital outflow of 0.811 billion, with a decrease of 6.62% [3] - Sanhua Intelligent Control experienced an outflow of 0.806 billion, down by 3.04% [3] - TCL Zhonghuan saw an outflow of 0.781 billion, with a slight increase of 1.61% [3] - Jiangxi Copper experienced a capital outflow of 0.707 billion, down by 5.10% [3] - Shandong Gold saw an outflow of 0.683 billion, with a decline of 3.92% [3] - SMIC experienced a capital outflow of 0.676 billion, down by 2.65% [3] - Jiejia Weichuang faced an outflow of 0.626 billion, with a significant drop of 12.39% [3]

| 中金黄金 | -4.59 | -7.71亿元 | 贵金属 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阳光电源 | -3.93 | -7.63亿元 | 光伏设备 | | 中国西电 | -6.82 | -7.30亿元 | 电网设备 | | 三花智控 | -2.57 | -6.97亿元 | 家电行业 | | 英维克 | -5.94 | -6.51亿元 | 专用设{ | | 山东黄金 | -4.21 | -6.37亿元 | 贵金属 | | 中芯国际 | -2.59 | -6.34亿元 | 未营体 | | 江西铜业 | -4.03 | -6.12亿元 | 有色金属 | | 北方稀土 | -5.27 | -6.00亿元 | 小金属 | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 据交易所数据显示，截至2月5日午后一小时，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为： 紫金矿业（-21.88亿元）、 新易盛（-15.92亿元）、 特变电工（-13.23亿 元）、 航天发展（-12.66亿元）、 洛阳钼业（-11.69亿元）、 金风科技（-11.46亿元）、 蓝色光标（-10.63亿元）、 隆基绿能（-10.50亿元）、 山子高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformer industry is experiencing a significant surge in demand, with many factories operating at full capacity and orders extending to 2027, particularly for data center applications [1][3]. Industry Overview - The transformer export value in China is projected to reach 64.6 billion yuan by 2025, marking a nearly 36% increase from 2024. Exports to Asia are expected to grow by 65.39%, to Africa by 28.03%, and to Europe by over 138% [3]. - The average export price of transformers from China has risen to approximately $20,800 per unit [3]. - The demand for transformers is driven by the surge in electricity consumption from data centers due to the AI boom and the urgent need for upgrades in aging power grids in Europe and the U.S. [3]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. and European markets show a preference for local and allied brands due to ideological and national security concerns, which has allowed Chinese manufacturers to fill the supply gap created by local production shortages [4]. - The Chinese transformer industry is supported by long-term domestic demand factors, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for smart grid construction and the aging infrastructure in residential areas [4]. Performance Disparity - While most companies in the transformer industry are profitable, there is significant performance disparity among them. For instance, TBEA reported a net profit of 5.484 billion yuan, a 27.55% increase year-on-year, while companies like Igor and Sanbian Technology saw declines in net profit [5][6]. - The performance of companies is influenced by their focus on specific customer segments, with some heavily reliant on state grid orders, leading to volatility based on bidding cycles [6][7]. Future Outlook - The transformer industry is expected to enter a golden development period over the next decade, driven by increasing electricity demand and substantial investments in grid infrastructure [4][5]. - However, the industry faces challenges such as rising raw material prices and potential market saturation, which could pressure profit margins [7].

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 广东佛山某电气工厂的生产车间里，三条生产线正24小时三班倒赶工，待发往北美、欧洲的数据中心专用变压器堆满了仓库；江苏一家变压器企业的订单系 统显示，定制化产品排期已延至2027年底。这一幕，正是全球变压器产业爆发式增长的缩影。 变压器是电力系统的"中枢神经"，主要起到电压变换以及平衡电力供需的"流量控制器"等功能。 与此同时，我国也在近两年对电力基础设施提出了新的要求。国家发改委2024年3月发布的《关于新形势下配电网高质量发展的指导意见》进一步明确， 2025年需全面淘汰高耗能变压器，全社会高效节能变压器占比较2021年提升10个百分点以上，政策红利持续释放。 据央视财经，目前广东、江苏两大核心产区的变压器工厂产能利用率均维持在90%以上，部分龙头企业甚至达到满产状态，行业供需缺口持续扩大。 电网安全事件倒逼行业变革 全球变压器需求激增，制造重心向中国转移来自于两大需求叠加——欧洲电网升级投资提速以及北美地区为AIDC应用所储备的电力系统改革。 2025年4月28日，西班牙全国电力负荷在5秒内骤降15吉瓦导致本土电力系统全面瘫痪，跨国输电网络连锁反应导致葡萄牙同步停电，法国南部3 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up while the ChiNext Index declined, and the electric grid equipment sector experienced a brief surge before retreating [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, the electric grid equipment ETF (159326), fell by 0.61% with a trading volume of 558 million yuan, while stocks like Hangzhou Electric and Hongsheng Huayuan hit the daily limit [1] - According to the General Administration of Customs, key power equipment exports are projected to reach 71.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%, with transformers, winding wires, insulators, and switchgear showing significant growth rates of 35%, 24%, 45%, and 29% respectively [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a potential acceleration in electric grid investment, with overseas supply unable to meet demand, leading to extended delivery times for power transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S., which could extend into the 2030s [1] - The company believes that Chinese electric equipment manufacturers are entering a golden development period for overseas exports, with expectations for continued growth in both volume and price in 2026 [1] - According to Chengtong Securities, there is a pressing need for the replacement of aging electric grid equipment in developed economies, where over 20% of equipment has exceeded its 20-year lifespan, benefiting domestic electric grid companies amid increasing investment growth [1] Group 3 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF in the market tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as power transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [2] - The ETF includes leading companies in overseas markets such as Tebian Electric, China XD Electric, and Baobian Electric, showcasing its comprehensive industry coverage [2]