证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 08 年 月 日 中国铝业（601600.SH） 铝产品"量价齐升"，25Q1 利润同比大幅增长 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 7 日披露 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告，预计 实现利润总额 62-67 亿元，同比增加 30%-40%；预计实现归母净利 34- 36 亿元，同比增加 53%-63%，环比增加 0.5%-6.4%，利润增加主要系 公司全方位极致降本增效及主要产品同比增产所致。 25Q1 青海 50 万吨电解铝项目爬产，电解铝增量成为利润贡献点。氧化 铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 氧化铝均价 3833 元/吨，同比增长 15.2%，环比减少 28.1%。2）量，广西华昇二期 200 万吨氧化铝项目预 计于 2025 年上半年投产，全部投产后，公司氧化铝年产能为 2426 万吨， 权益产能 1967 万吨。电解铝：1）价，根据 SMM 统计，25Q1 电解铝均价 2.04 万元/吨，同比增长 7.3%，环比减少 0.5%。2）量，内蒙古华云三期 42 万吨电解铝项目及青海分公司 50 万吨电解铝项目中分别于 20 ...

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临2025-021 2025年1月1日至2025年3月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 中国铝业股份有限公司 2025年第一季度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 1.中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年第一季度实现利润总额人民币62亿元至人民币 67亿元，同比增加30%至40%。 2.预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润人民币34亿元至人民币36亿元，同比增加53%至63%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 运"一体化快速响应与协同，最大限度发挥公司全产业链、大规模运营等优势，推动公司可持续高质量 发展，提升公司投资价值和股东回报能力。 五、风险提示 1.经初步测算，预计公司2025年第一季度实现利润总额人民币62亿元至人民币67亿元，同比增加30%至 40%。 2.经初步测算，预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润人民币34亿元至人民币36亿元，同比增加53%至 63%。 （三）本次业绩预告数据未经审计。 ...

中国最大铝生产商中国铝业7日发布2025年第一季度业绩预增公告，预计净利润34亿元至36亿元，同比增加53%至63%；业绩增长原因公司秉持极致经 营理念，精准研判市场价格波动、全方位极致降本增效，主要产品同比增产，实现经营业绩同比大幅增加。 利润：2025年Q1预计利润总额达62-67亿元，同比增30%-40%； 归母净利润：归母净利润34-36亿元，同比增53%-63%。 第四季度，公司营业收入为632.9亿元，同比增长72.6%。 2024Q4，公司实现归母净利润33.83 亿元，同比增长147.96%，环比增长69.14%； 扣非归母净利润32.63 亿元，同比增长93.72%，环比增长75.54%。 | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | 本年比 ┣年 | 2022年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 调整后 | 调整前 | 增减(%) | 调整后 | 调整前 | | 总资产 | 215,895,530 | 211,896,104 | 211, 755, 809 | 1.89 | 212, 516, 069 | 212, 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 237.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85.4% [5][7] - The alumina business is the main contributor to profitability, with a gross profit of 19.5 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 52% of total profits, driven by both volume and price increases [5][7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its industrial layout and has reduced impairment losses significantly, indicating proactive management strategies [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, net profit of 6.717 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, net profit of 12.4 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 229.16 billion yuan, net profit of 16.53 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 246.14 billion yuan, net profit of 23.45 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 260.66 billion yuan, net profit of 26.31 billion yuan [3][5][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.39 yuan - 2024A: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.96 yuan - 2026E: 1.37 yuan - 2027E: 1.53 yuan [3][5][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has enhanced its resource security, achieving a bauxite self-sufficiency rate of 66% and increasing its bauxite resource reserves by 73.55 million tons in 2024 [5][7] - The company is committed to shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of 0.217 yuan per share for 2024, with a total dividend payout of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% payout ratio [5][7] - The supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, with domestic production nearing capacity limits, leading to a projected price range of 23,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton [5][7]

2025 年第一季度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 1.中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年第一季度实现利润 总额人民币 62 亿元至人民币 67 亿元，同比增加 30%至 40%。 2.预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润人民币 34 亿元至人民币 36 亿元，同 比增加 53%至 63%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临 2025-021 中国铝业股份有限公司 （二）实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润：人民币 22 亿元。 三、本期业绩预增的主要原因 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1.经初步测算，预计公司 2025 年第一季度实现利润总额人民币 62 亿元至人民 币 67 亿元，同比增加 30%至 40%。 2.经初步测算，预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润人民币 34 亿元至人民币 36 亿元，同比增加 53%至 63%。 （三）本 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation (the company) has approved a proposal for its subsidiary, Chalco Ningxia Energy Group, to establish a joint venture with two other companies, aiming to enhance its investment portfolio and operational capacity in the energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The joint venture will be established with a registered capital of RMB 4,766,771,080, with Chalco Ningxia contributing RMB 113,925.83 million for a 23.90% stake [1][2]. - The other parties involved are Zhongtong Tibet Mining Co., which will hold 56.1% of the joint venture, and Tibet Development Investment Group, holding 20.0% [2]. Group 2: Capital Contribution and Payment Schedule - The initial capital contribution of RMB 289,009,365.33 will be made within 20 working days after the joint venture's account is opened, with each party contributing according to their shareholding [2][3]. - Over the next two years, an additional RMB 1,658,930,074.67 will be contributed based on the joint venture's investment needs [2][3]. - The remaining capital of RMB 2,818,831,640.00 must be fully paid within five years, with specific amounts allocated to each party [2][3]. Group 3: Default and Penalty Clauses - If any party fails to meet their capital contribution obligations, they will incur a penalty of 0.03% of the unpaid amount per day, with a maximum penalty period of 90 days [2][3]. - The agreement allows for adjustments in shareholding proportions if a party defaults, and the non-defaulting party has the right to demand compensation for any losses incurred [3][4]. Group 4: Profit Distribution and Responsibilities - After covering losses and allocating 10% of the after-tax profits to statutory reserves, profits will be distributed according to the shareholding ratios [3][4]. - All parties are jointly liable for any costs incurred during the establishment of the joint venture, with specific provisions for handling expenses and liabilities [3][4].

此乃要件 請即處理 閣下如對本通函任何方面或應採取的行動有任何疑問，應諮詢 閣下的股票經紀或其他註冊證券商、 銀行經理、律師、專業會計師或其他專業顧問。 閣下如已將名下的中國鋁業股份有限公司的股份全部售出，應立即將本通函送交買主或經手買賣的銀 行、股票經紀或其他代理商，以便轉交買主。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通函的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整 性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本通函全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而 引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 須予披露的交易及關連交易 獨立董事委員會及獨立股東的獨立財務顧問 本補充通函應與日期為2025年3月7日的臨時股東會通函及通告一併閱讀。 載有（其中包括）有關包頭鋁業擬吸收合併內蒙古華雲的須予披露的交易及關連交易事項的董事會函件 載於本補充通函第1頁至第17頁。 載有獨立董事委員會就有關包頭鋁業擬吸收合併內蒙古華雲的須予披露的交易及關連交易事項向獨立 股東作出的推薦建議的獨立董事委員會函件載於本補充通函第18頁至第19頁。 載有建泉融資就有關包頭鋁業擬吸收合併內蒙古華雲的須予披露的交易及關連交易事項向獨立董事委 員會及獨立 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 2 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Aluminum Industry** in China, specifically focusing on the **Implementation Plan for High-quality Development for the Aluminum Industry (2025-27)** issued by 10 government departments on March 28, 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The plan mandates that by **2027**, the percentage of aluminum capacity exceeding the energy efficiency benchmark (13,000 kWh/t) should rise to **30%+**, while capacities below the base level (13,300 kWh/t) must either upgrade technology or be closed [1][2]. - The target for **renewable energy consumption** in the aluminum sector is set to exceed **30%**, an increase from the previous target of **25%+** by the end of 2025 [2]. - The plan aims to boost domestic bauxite resources by **3-5%** through enhanced exploration efforts [2]. - The recycling aluminum output target is set to exceed **15 million tons** by **2027**, up from **11.5 million tons** in the previous plan for 2025 [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **Hongqiao** and **Chalco** are identified as industry leaders expected to benefit from the new regulations due to their higher energy efficiency and renewable energy usage [1][3]. - The target price for **Chalco A-share** is set at **Rmb10.72** per share, based on a **2.60x** 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio, reflecting anticipated higher aluminum margins due to decreasing coal and raw material prices [5]. - The target price for **Chalco H-share** is set at **HK$8.89** per share, based on a **1.96x** 2024E PB ratio [7]. - The target price for **Hongqiao** is set at **HK$21.0** per share, based on an **8.4x** 2025E price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [9]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks that could hinder stock performance include: - Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices [6][8]. - Higher-than-expected operational costs [6][8]. - Potential impairment losses exceeding expectations [6][8]. - Possible loosening of supply cut policies by the Chinese government if aluminum prices rise significantly [6][8][10]. Additional Considerations - The plan emphasizes the **green development** of the aluminum industry, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices [2]. - The comprehensive utilization rate of newly added red mud resources is targeted to reach **15%** [2]. - The expansion of aluminum applications in various sectors, including municipal facilities, automotive, photovoltaics, and furniture, is expected to drive increased consumption [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction of the aluminum industry in China and the implications for key players like Hongqiao and Chalco.

Summary of Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) - **Stock Ticker**: 2600.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$87.8 billion / $11.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$168.4 billion / $21.7 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb12.4 billion, representing an 85% year-over-year increase - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Rmb0.723, up 84% year-over-year - **Recurring Net Profit**: Estimated at Rmb13.1 billion, up 99% year-over-year - **Dividend**: Proposed final dividend of Rmb0.135 per share, total annual dividend of Rmb0.217, implying a 30% payout ratio for 2024, compared to 21% for 2023 [1][30] Revenue and Cost Analysis - **Total Revenue for 2024**: Rmb237.1 billion, a 5% increase from Rmb225.3 billion in 2023 - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: Rmb201.5 billion, up 2% year-over-year - **Gross Profit**: Rmb35.5 billion, a 29% increase year-over-year - **Sales Volume**: Aluminum sales volume was 7.60 million tons, up 12% year-over-year, while alumina sales volume was 6.35 million tons, down 3% year-over-year [19][30] Segment Performance - **Aluminum Segment**: Gross profit declined by 15% year-over-year, primarily due to higher COGS - **Alumina Segment**: Gross profit increased by 236% year-over-year, attributed to lower-than-expected costs - **Energy and Trading Segment**: Gross profit decreased by 63% year-over-year due to lower revenue and higher COGS [19][20] Future Outlook and Estimates - **2025E Net Profit**: Expected to remain elevated at Rmb11.4 billion, with a stable aluminum output of 7.6 million tons and an increase in alumina output to 22 million tons [2][33] - **Alumina Price Forecast**: Expected to remain depressed at Rmb3,431 per ton for 2025 and Rmb3,464 per ton for 2026 [2][33] - **Aluminum Industry Spread**: Anticipated to sustain at Rmb4,830 per ton in 2025 and Rmb4,700 per ton in 2026 [2][33] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Price Target**: HK$6.30 for 12 months, with a current price of HK$5.12, indicating a 23% upside potential - **Valuation Ratios**: Trading at a P/E of 6.2 for 2024, with a projected P/E of 7.2 for 2025 [1][36] - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy rating for Chalco-H and Neutral for Chalco-A due to fair valuation [34][35] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include lower aluminum and alumina pricing, potential removal of capacity caps in primary aluminum, slower-than-expected green demand, and higher supply from recycled aluminum [28][37] - **Upside Risks**: Include higher pricing driven by improved supply-demand balance and enhanced demand for green technologies [29][38] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - **Operating Cash Flow**: Increased by 21% year-over-year to Rmb32.6 billion - **Free Cash Flow**: Grew by 59% year-over-year to Rmb25.2 billion - **Net Gearing**: Decreased to 64% from 100% at the end of 2023 [23][30] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, segment performance, future outlook, valuation, and associated risks for Aluminum Corp. of China, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.