Market Overview - The indices experienced fluctuations in the afternoon, with declines narrowing. The Shanghai Composite Index reported at 4078.82 points, down 0.57%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13969.10 points, down 1.32%, and the ChiNext Index at 3266.71 points, down 1.35% [1] Sector Performance - The banking sector saw significant gains, with Xiamen Bank hitting the daily limit and reaching a new high since June 2021 [1] - The innovative drug sector was notably active, with Guangsheng Tang rising over 10% [1] - The securities sector also experienced a surge, with Hualin Securities hitting the daily limit and other companies like Huaxin Securities, Huatai Securities, and Dongfang Caifu following suit [1] - The tourism and hotel sector showed strength, with Sanxia Tourism reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, the precious metals sector faced ongoing adjustments, with Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit down [1] - The afternoon saw weakness in the electric grid equipment stocks, with Sifang Co. hitting the daily limit down [1] Stock Movement - Overall, the market saw more stocks declining than rising, with over 3500 stocks down [1] - The beauty care, film and television, and banking sectors led in gains, while BC batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and precious metals sectors led in losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan to support its overseas business development, which is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H-shares but minimal impact on A-shares [1] Group 1: Financing Strategy - The company opts for convertible bonds due to lower issuance costs compared to traditional equity offerings, and it has a lesser impact on the market [1] - The funds raised will primarily be directed towards stock derivatives, FICC, wealth management, and asset management, aiming to strengthen its position among Chinese brokerage firms' overseas subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Market Context - Domestic brokerages are accelerating their overseas market expansion under policy guidance, with ongoing capital market reforms and a gradual economic recovery boosting market investment enthusiasm [1] - The long-term policy environment for the securities industry is favorable, positioning the company to seize international business opportunities for further growth [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - The company has raised its previous earnings forecast in light of its current operational situation and maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huatai Securities has shown a mixed performance in terms of financing and stockholder metrics, with a notable decrease in financing net purchases and a decline in shareholder numbers [1][2]. - As of February 4, Huatai Securities' financing balance is 65.64 billion yuan, which is 4.05% of its market capitalization, indicating a low level compared to the past year [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 27.13 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.69% to 12.73 billion yuan [2]. Group 2 - Huatai Securities has distributed a total of 42.89 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 13.99 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.96% to 195,500, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 7.62% to 38,566 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 442 million shares, a decrease of 108 million shares from the previous period, while China Securities Finance Corporation remains unchanged with 153 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Insights - The ongoing negotiations regarding Indonesia's coal production quotas for 2026 have led some mines to suspend spot coal exports, which is expected to impact China's monthly average thermal coal consumption and imports by 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [2][3] - The export quota dispute is identified as the primary cause of the current fluctuations in Indonesia's coal supply, with the government planning to reduce the export quota from 790 million tons in 2025 to around 600 million tons in 2026 [2] - The report suggests that the impact of spot export restrictions on China's coal supply and demand is limited, as long-term contracts account for 90% of coal imports from Indonesia [3] - If the export restrictions extend to long-term contracts, the potential impact on China's monthly thermal coal consumption could reach 4.9% and imports could drop by 42% [4][8] - China's domestic coal production capacity is deemed sufficient to counteract supply disruptions, with the ability to cover approximately 36 million tons of coal supply, equivalent to 2.1 months of imports from Indonesia [5] Summary by Sections - **Export Quota Negotiations**: Indonesian mines are pausing spot coal exports due to disputes over production quotas, which may lead to a more flexible and self-driven export limitation by companies [2] - **Impact on China**: The suspension of spot exports is projected to have a minor effect on China's coal consumption and imports, with a maximum potential impact of 170 million tons per month if spot exports are completely halted [3] - **Domestic Response**: China's coal production capacity is capable of adjusting to maintain supply levels, mitigating the potential impact of Indonesian export restrictions [5] - **Price Implications**: If the export restrictions persist, it could lead to an increase in coal prices, benefiting companies with significant exposure to spot coal [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The company’s leverage ratio is projected to increase slightly before the conversion of the bonds but is expected to decrease post-conversion, indicating a manageable impact on overall leverage [8] - The financing is anticipated to bolster the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with plans to expand into mature and emerging markets [8] - The regulatory environment is supportive of domestic brokers expanding overseas, which aligns with the company's strategic goals [8] - The long-term outlook for the securities industry remains positive, driven by capital market reforms and a recovering macroeconomic environment, which is expected to enhance market investment enthusiasm [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 42.34 billion yuan by 2027, with a notable decline in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant increase in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 2.32 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongwu Securities has given Huatai Securities (601688.SH) a "buy" rating based on several factors [1] - The dilution effect on H-shares is significant, while the impact on A-shares is relatively minor [1] - The cost of convertible bonds is lower, leading to a slight decrease in leverage after conversion [1] - In the medium to long term, this will benefit the company's overseas business development [1] - Under policy guidance, domestic securities firms are accelerating their layout in overseas markets [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The financing is anticipated to enhance the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with expectations for further growth in mature and emerging markets [8] - The report highlights a favorable policy environment for domestic brokers to expand internationally, with regulatory encouragement for cross-border financial services [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 17.1 billion, 20.1 billion, and 21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 18%, and 4% [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 41.47 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a decline to 35.23 billion yuan in 2025, and then recovering to 40.59 billion yuan in 2026 and 42.34 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.35 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 17.07 billion yuan in 2025, and further increasing to 20.13 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.99 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [1]

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: HTSC（於中華人民共和國註冊成立，中文公司名稱為华泰证券股份有限公司及在香港以HTSC名義開展業務）(「本公司」) 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601688 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所 （「上交所」）上市之A股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,307,818,106 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,307,818,106 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,307 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: HTSC（於中華人民共和國註冊成立，中文公司名稱為华泰证券股份有限公司及在香港以HTSC名義開展業務）(「本公司」) 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601688 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所 （「上交所」）上市之A股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,307,818,106 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,307,818,106 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,307 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks have seen a rise in afternoon trading, with several firms reporting significant gains, driven by positive earnings forecasts and a favorable market environment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huatai Securities (601688) increased by 5.38%, reaching HKD 17.84 [1] - China International Capital Corporation (601995) rose by 4.58%, reaching HKD 21.92 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities (02611) gained 4.71%, reaching HKD 17.79 [1] - China Galaxy Securities (601881) increased by 2.71%, reaching HKD 10.62 [1] - China Merchants Securities (600999) rose by 2.32%, reaching HKD 14.54 [1] Group 2: Earnings Reports - As of the end of January, five listed brokerages, including CITIC Securities (600030), have released earnings reports for 2025, with 17 others providing performance forecasts, accounting for about 50% of all listed brokerages [1] - Collectively, these 22 brokerages are expected to report positive earnings, with eight firms anticipating a year-on-year increase in net profit exceeding 70% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the brokerage sector is experiencing improving conditions, with a favorable external business environment [1] - The current phase is characterized by a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with diminishing pressure from funding [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that the brokerage sector is likely to benefit from both performance and valuation improvements due to ongoing investment reforms [1]