Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is characterized by "structural differentiation and simultaneous repair," with various institutions noting that despite ongoing redemption pressure on broad-based ETFs, sectors such as consumer chains, real estate chains, and resource products are entering a repair window [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The broad-based ETF redemption pressure continues to grow, with significant differences in the承接力 (support capacity) among different industries and stocks [2]. - The consumer chain is expected to see an increase in allocation leading up to the Two Sessions, with the real estate chain also likely to experience noticeable recovery during this period [2]. - The spring market is supported by ample liquidity and policy backing, which may sustain the ongoing spring rally, although caution is advised regarding the marginal contraction of profit effects at high levels [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The consensus among institutions is to focus on technology (AI, semiconductors) and resource products (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) as key investment directions [1][7]. - There is growing attention on cyclical sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as power grid equipment and lithium batteries, as well as non-bank sectors [1][3]. - The current market environment is conducive to exploring basic combinations centered around chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment, while also considering low allocation in non-bank sectors like securities and insurance [2][4]. Group 3: Performance and Earnings - As the annual report forecast disclosure period peaks, the impact of earnings on market structure is expected to become more pronounced, with a focus on sectors with earnings highlights [4][11]. - The performance of sectors such as AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials is anticipated to improve, given their relatively low price increases [4][12]. - The market is likely to experience a rotation among sectors, with a focus on high-growth areas and those benefiting from price increases [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its slow bull trend, with the potential for a correction after reaching a phase high between 4200 and 4300 points [6][10]. - The spring market is seen as an extension of the structural bull market, with a likelihood of a consolidation phase following the current rally [3][5]. - The focus for 2026 includes a clearer dual mainline of asset allocation towards physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments becoming essential [9][10].

Company News - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) reported a revenue of 337.53 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%; net profit reached 150.18 billion yuan, an increase of 1.21% year-on-year [6] - Everbright Securities (06178.HK) achieved a revenue of 10.863 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.18%; net profit was 3.729 billion yuan, up 21.92% year-on-year [7] - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) expects a revenue of approximately 3.93 billion to 4.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.46% to 12.25%; net profit is projected to be between 190 million to 283 million yuan, a decrease of about 66.82% to 50.58% year-on-year [7] - China Power International Development (01071.HK) reported a total power generation of 26.2 billion megawatt-hours for 2025, a year-on-year decline of approximately 6.99% [7] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) plans to invest 4 billion yuan to establish a partnership focused on "technology innovation and industrial upgrading" in the Yangtze River Delta region; it also intends to contribute 8.492 billion yuan to establish a partnership with its subsidiary, focusing on investments in the elderly care industry [7] - Road King Infrastructure (01098.HK) intends to sell several property rights in the Road King New World commercial project in Ningbo for 100.3 million yuan [7] - China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK) forecasts a net profit of 1.3 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 76.28% to 80.73% year-on-year [8] Industry Trends - The toy, commercial aerospace, photovoltaic, and intelligent driving sectors are showing strong performance, while insurance and banking sectors continue to exhibit weakness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [2]. Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% [2]. - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate; cable enterprises' operating rates have increased week-on-week, but domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices [2]. - The supply-demand outlook for 2026 remains tight, with continued optimism for rising copper prices [2]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% [3]. - As of January 23, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [3]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 960,000 tons, up 6.2% from January 16; LME copper global inventory was 172,000 tons, up 16.9% [3]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 526 CNY/ton week-on-week [4]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; global copper concentrate production in November was 1.923 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. Smelting - The TC spot price reached -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low [5]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [5]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year; exports were 96,000 tons, down 32.7% month-on-month but up 473.4% year-on-year [5]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with cable enterprises' operating rate at 58.71%, up 2.72 percentage points week-on-week [6]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to see production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% from January to March 2026 [6]. - Copper rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 52.74%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.40 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Futures - As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 6.4% week-on-week, with a total position of 231,000 lots [7]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 53,000 lots, down 1.6% week-on-week [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing recovery of market confidence, with potential for sector and stock recovery, particularly in consumer and real estate chains before the Two Sessions [2] - The article highlights the significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, with a notable impact on sectors and stocks that are underweight by institutions [2] - It suggests that sectors with strong fundamentals and logical narratives, particularly those not heavily weighted in broad-based indices, are likely to see recovery [2] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a transition towards a more stable phase, with the potential for a perfect spring market driven by increased profitability [3] - The article notes that the overall profitability effect is nearing a high point, indicating that the market may face limitations in time and space for further growth [3] - It anticipates a correction phase following the spring market, where the focus will shift to clearer industrial trends and performance digestion [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the supportive role of abundant liquidity in driving the current spring market, stemming from various factors including insurance capital and foreign fund inflows [4] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamental performance as companies begin to disclose annual reports, with particular attention to sectors like AI hardware, batteries, and pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4 - The article identifies the current market phase as a structural bull market, transitioning from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase [6] - It suggests that the market may face a correction after reaching a temporary high between 4200 and 4300 points, with a focus on the support levels and core sectors [6] Group 5 - The article advocates for a dual focus on technology and resource sectors, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic conditions and liquidity in shaping investment strategies [7] - It identifies key sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy as central to current market trends, with a positive outlook for resource industries [7] Group 6 - The article suggests that the market's optimism is necessary, particularly in light of the recent volatility and the need to consider the relationship between market optimism and regulatory cooling [8] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on physical assets and Chinese assets in investment strategies, with a recommendation for sectors like equipment exports and consumer recovery [9] Group 7 - The article indicates that the current market is entering a phase of high volatility and differentiation, with expectations for policy-driven demand expansion [10] - It highlights the potential for the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from both industrial trends and financial attributes, particularly in light of geopolitical factors [11] Group 8 - The article notes that the A-share market is returning to a slow bull trend, with an increasing importance of sector rotation and fundamental performance [12] - It emphasizes the need to focus on structural investment opportunities, particularly in technology innovation and manufacturing sectors [12] Group 9 - The article suggests that the current market may be entering the latter half of the spring market, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and clear industrial trends [13] - It highlights the potential for price increases in sectors like basic chemicals and new energy materials, as well as opportunities in export-driven sectors [13] Group 10 - The article maintains that the slow bull trend is likely to continue, with a focus on technology, resource sectors, and industries with high growth potential [14] - It suggests that the current market conditions provide ample opportunities for investment, particularly in sectors with strong earnings forecasts [14]

大幅增配公募基金。 随着《中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025年）》（下称《报告》）出炉，过去一年理财市场的运行情 况浮出水面：存续规模站上33.29万亿元，全年累计新发理财产品3.34万只，累计募集资金76.33万亿 元。 在这份《报告》中，最受普通投资者关注的还是理财收益情况。在全市场利率普遍处于下行通道的背景 下，2025年理财产品平均收益率罕见跌破2%，降至1.98%。不过，2025年持有理财产品的投资者数量又 比上年末增加了约1800万个，年末已达到1.43亿个。 从资产配置结构来看，2025年理财产品大幅增配了公募基金，降低了直接配置权益类资产和债券的比 例，对现金和银行存款的配置比例也明显提升。 低利率时代，与"存款搬家"叙事同时受到关注的是理财收益率。 《报告》显示，2025年，理财产品累计为投资者创造收益7303亿元，较上年增长2.87%；全年理财产品 平均收益率为1.98%（统计期内每个月收益率的算术平均值），比2024年的2.65%下降了0.67个百分点。 存续规模超33万亿，今年再增3万亿？ 《报告》显示，截至2025年末，全国共有159家银行机构和32家理财公司有存续的理财产品，共存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 annual report on the banking wealth management market highlights five key characteristics: (1) a significant increase in wealth management scale by nearly 3.3 trillion yuan, (2) the rise of "fixed income+" products as a crucial growth driver amid a recovering capital market, (3) a decline in wealth management yields below 2%, (4) an increase in the allocation of wealth management to deposit-like assets reaching 28.2%, and (5) a stable number of wealth management companies at 32, with market share exceeding 90% [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Scale - The wealth management scale increased by approximately 3.34 trillion yuan in 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the end-of-year scale expected to be between 33-34 trillion yuan [4][9]. - The second half of 2025 contributed 78.4% of the total scale increase, with significant growth driven by factors such as deposit "disintermediation" and the release of "floating profits" [4][5]. Product Structure - Fixed income products maintained a stable share of around 97%, with "fixed income+" products growing by 16% to 10.8 trillion yuan [15][17]. - The structure of fixed income products showed a balance between cash management and non-cash management products, with cash management products at 7.04 trillion yuan [15]. Asset Allocation - The allocation to deposit-like assets increased to 28.2%, driven by the need for stability in net value and the relative yield advantages of deposits [23][25]. - Public funds saw an increase of 8.9 trillion yuan, with a notable contribution from the second and fourth quarters [25][26]. Wealth Management Returns - The average yield for wealth management products in 2025 was 1.98%, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods, with expectations for further weakening in 2026 [38][40]. Customer Behavior - The number of wealth management investors reached 143 million, with a strong preference for low-risk and medium-low-risk products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among individual investors [42][44]. Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies reached 92.3%, with potential for further growth as distribution channels expand and non-licensed institutions reduce their scale [47][48].

【光大证券：近期以稳为主 但仍应持股过节】智通财经1月25日电，光大证券研报表示，保持稳健，持 股过节。参考之前的市场行情，认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之 前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主 要指数上涨概率不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上 行概率与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电 力设备、有色金属等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设 备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业 分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具 有一定的相似性。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：智通财经 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, suggesting that it is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with expectations for improvement in the first half of the year [2][6]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in allocation by active equity funds, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102 basis points, surpassing the three-year average [2]. - The report highlights strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases in net profits for several brokerages, including a projected 405.3% increase for Guolian Minsheng [2][16]. - The insurance sector is expected to stabilize, with a forecasted recovery in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products, anticipated to rise to 1.96% in Q1 2026 [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,702.50 with a decline of 0.62%, while the non-bank index fell by 1.45% [6]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported changes of -0.61%, -4.02%, and +3.10%, respectively [6]. Non-Banking Sector Insights - The report notes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance transparency and accountability [8][10]. - Key announcements from individual companies include China Pacific Insurance reporting an 8.1% increase in premium income for 2025, and Guolian Minsheng forecasting a significant profit increase due to business integration [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan and Citic Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, the report maintains a positive medium-term outlook, recommending companies like China Life and Ping An Insurance [2]. Key Data Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the average daily trading volume was reported at 30,388.36 billion [32]. - The margin trading balance stood at 27,249.13 billion [38].

Group 1 - The core pattern of A-share bull markets follows an alternating cycle of "upward phases and consolidation phases," with long-term downward phases being very rare [1][5] - Different types of bull markets exhibit variations in their phase combinations, with a comprehensive bull market consisting of "3 consolidation phases and 4 upward phases," while a structural bull market consists of "2 consolidation phases and 3 upward phases" [1][5] - Historical differences in the second consolidation phase between comprehensive and structural bull markets are evident in terms of retracement magnitude, duration, market style, and activity level [6] Group 2 - Confirmation of a bull market transition from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase requires both technical and policy validation [2][6] - The current bull market aligns more closely with structural bull market characteristics, as the second consolidation phase has shown "small retracement magnitude and long duration," which is distinct from comprehensive bull markets [7] - The current bull market may have already transitioned into the third upward phase, supported by technical signals and positive macro policies [3][7] Group 3 - Based on historical patterns, the initial phase of the third upward segment may reach a temporary high between 4200-4300 points, followed by a potential retracement that stabilizes at the upper boundary of the second consolidation phase [4][8] - The upper boundary of the second consolidation phase serves as a critical support level, indicating strong capital support and psychological backing for the market [8] - Future monitoring should focus on the pressure release and capital support within the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper boundary of the second consolidation phase [8]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月23日，光大证券发布公告称，公司2025年度实现营业收入108.63亿元，同比增长 13.18%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润37.29亿元，同比增长21.92%。 ...