2026年2月28日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 01 锂业弹性表 证券研究报告 锂行业弹性表 （2026年2月版） 行业评级：看好 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的公司为：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、华友钴业、紫金矿业、中矿资源； 预计2025至2027年产量增速较快的为：大中矿业、紫金矿业、盐湖股份、永兴材料、国城矿业； 增量分析： 2 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，措拉矿投产，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）大中矿业：未来几年主要增量为鸡脚山和加达锂矿项目逐步投产增产。 4）盐湖股份：未来几年主要增量为新建4万吨项目投产放量、最新整合五矿盐湖旗下一里坪盐湖。 5）紫金矿业：未来几年增 ...

今年以来，贵金属、小金属、存储芯片、MLCC、电子布等品种价格迎来显著上涨，相关股票受到资金 青睐，股价也出现持续上涨。翔鹭钨业、章源钨业今年以来均涨逾180%，中钨高新涨逾130%，湖南白 银涨逾120%，走势远超大盘，其中中钨高新、厦门钨业等涨价概念股获得资金青睐，融资资金显著加 仓。 分析人士表示，宏观流动性宽松为大宗商品提供支撑，金属板块将具备更高的上行弹性，涨价是一季度 的核心配置线索之一。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 多个品种出现涨价 今年以来，多个品种出现涨价，包括AI需求带动的存储芯片、电子布等，资源类的黄金、白银及多个 小金属品种，化工类的磷化工等， 从AI需求旺盛带动的存储芯片、电子布等品种来看，2026年1月，三星、SK海力士向服务器、PC及智 能手机用DRAM客户提出涨价。近期，国际复材、光远新材等企业率先上调电子布报价，普通电子布涨 幅超10%，报价突破万元关口，达10300元/吨-10700元/吨；7628电子布主流价格升至5.1元/米–5.5元/ 米。 从资源类的黄金、白银及多个小金属品种来看，截至2月27日中国证券报记者发稿时，今年以来，现货 黄金累计涨近20%，现货白银累计涨逾25 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has triggered a significant market reaction, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 11% to exceed 160,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new cycle in the lithium market driven by supply disruptions and surging demand from energy storage batteries [1][2][3]. Supply Side - The ban from Zimbabwe is expected to have a short-term impact, with current compliant export capacity limited to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, increasing to 60,000 tons in 2027 [3][5]. - The global lithium supply is projected to be approximately 202,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with demand expected to reach around 201.7 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [22]. - The recovery of lithium production in Australia is anticipated to take at least a quarter, with many projects still in the planning stages, which limits immediate supply response to rising prices [8][12]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is increasingly driven by energy storage, with global shipments of storage batteries expected to reach 900 GWh in 2026, translating to a demand for approximately 540,000 tons of LCE, a 50% year-on-year increase [16][18]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in demand for power batteries due to policy changes, the overall demand for lithium is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with projections of 1.9 million electric vehicles sold in China, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16][18]. Pricing Dynamics - The current low inventory levels, with social stocks of lithium carbonate dropping to around 10,300 tons, have significantly amplified price elasticity, leading to a market that is trading on "shortage driven by restocking" rather than waiting for supply-demand equilibrium [18][24]. - The pricing logic in the lithium market is shifting from "current period looseness" to "future period tightness," as financial attributes of lithium are becoming more pronounced, with market participants pricing in future scarcity [25][26]. Geopolitical Factors - The emergence of a "Lithium OPEC" in South America, involving Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, aims to regain pricing power over lithium resources, which could further complicate supply dynamics [6][7]. - Geopolitical and policy variables, such as nationalization efforts in Chile and Mexico's strategic designation of lithium, are expected to layer additional pricing options that could influence market dynamics over time [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term, supported by low inventory, concentrated supply disruptions, and the upcoming demand peak [26]. - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with differing views on whether prices above 200,000 yuan/ton will be sustainable or if they represent a temporary window before supply increases catch up [26].

产业上下游影响分化 本报记者 冯雨瑶 2026年开年以来，铜价持续高位运行。生意社数据显示，截至2月26日，现货铜价最新为10.20万元/ 吨，同比增长32.51%。 供需错配支撑铜价上行 对于驱动铜价上涨的因素，上海钢联铜事业部分析师曾健辉告诉记者："其一是供应的扰动为铜价提供 了上涨的逻辑支撑，铜精矿供应偏紧；其二是需求导向，传统领域需求不减，另外新能源、AI智能电 气化等对于铜消费又存在强预期；其三地缘政治冲突使得市场避险情绪升温，贵金属大幅上涨，带动铜 的避险属性。" 摩根大通最新预测，2026年全球铜市场将出现13万吨供应缺口，工业金属供需格局迎来关键转向。作为 新能源、电网、AI算力与高端制造的核心原材料，铜的短缺将直接抬升价格中枢，重塑产业链利润分 配，国内具备资源与产能优势的铜业龙头将显著受益。 供给端刚性约束是缺口形成的核心原因。据了解，全球铜矿勘探开发周期长达5年至8年，过去十年矿企 资本开支偏低，新增产能释放缓慢；主力矿山品位持续下滑、产区地缘扰动频发，进一步压制供给弹 性。国金证券报告指出，2025年铜矿产量指引多次下调，2026年预计增量有限。 而反观需求端，AI数据中心等正成为拉动 ...

紫金矿业 20260226 摘要 持"矿业为主导"，以"提质、上产、控本、增效"为总方针；相较过去几年 强调"提质、控本、增效"，在当前金属价格较为合适的前提下，将"上产" 明确纳入新的总方针，并对主要矿产品产量规划指标进行了小幅上调。2026 年指引与前期变化不大：矿产金预计 105 吨，矿产铜预计 120 万吨，当量碳 酸锂预计约 12 万吨，其中当量碳酸锂由 2025 年的 2.5 万吨提升而来，主要源 于多个项目逐步放量。到 2028 年的三年规划目标为：矿产金约 130 至 140 吨， 矿产铜约 150 至 160 万吨，当量碳酸锂约 27 至 32 万吨；同时还包括矿产银、 铅锌，以及正在逐步开发和投产的矿产钼。2035 年远景目标是在三年规划基 础上实现更明显的跨越式增量，力争公司主要技术与经济指标较 2025 年实现 跨越式增长，部分指标达到全球首位，全面建成"绿色、高技术、超一流的国 际矿业集团"。 2026 年当量碳酸锂 12 万吨的产量目标如何拆分到具体项目，并进一步对应 到 2028 年 27 至 32 万吨的项目构成与节奏安排是什么？ 2026 年当量碳酸锂规划产量约 12 万吨。 ...

【有色ETF汇添富（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 有色金属 | 1.52% | 14.47% | | 2 | 603993 | 洛阳镇业 | 有色金属 | 4.43% | 7.55% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | 5.52% | 5.58% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 有色金属 | 2.80% | 4.58% | | ਟ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色金属 | 3.05% | 4.01% | | 6 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 有色金属 | 2.29% | 3.40% | | 7 | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 有色金属 | 0.71% | 3.26% | | 8 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色金属 | 1.82% | 3.24% | | ਰੇ | 000426 | 兴业银锡 | 有色金属 | 2.86% | 2.85% ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月27日，有色ETF华安（512940）开盘跌0.78%，报1.022元。有色ETF华安（512940）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘跌0.43%，洛阳钼业跌0.35%，北方稀土涨0.05%，华友钴业跌1.14%，中国铝业跌0.82%，中 金黄金跌0.23%，山东黄金涨0.71%，赣锋锂业跌2.00%，兴业银锡跌1.04%，厦门钨业涨0.00%。 有色ETF华安（512940）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属矿业主题指数收益率，管理人为华安基金管理有 限公司，基金经理为许之彦，成立（2026-02-04）以来回报为3.32%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

3/19-20日·2026虚拟电厂系列研讨会 项目要求投标人五年内至少承担过1项海拔4000米以上、装机容量100MW及以上集中式光伏发电项目或电化学储能 项目总承包(EPC)或者施工总承包(PC)业绩(在建或者已投产)。 本项目不接受联合体投标。 原文如下： 文丨中国招标投标公共服务平台 北极星储能网讯：2026年2月13日，西藏日喀则市昂仁县朱诺铜矿配套100MW光伏+100MW/500MWh储能项目发布 EPC总承包招标公告，项目资金来源为自筹资金56000万元，招标人为西藏耀晖新能源全资控股的昂仁县红日绿能新 能源有限公司。 据悉，朱诺铜矿是紫金矿业2023年并购的超大型铜矿项目，铜资源量172万吨，项目总投资约83.93亿元，采选规模 为1,800万吨/年，主要产品为铜精矿（含银）及钼精矿。项目计划于2026年6月底建成投产，生产服务年限为26年， 达产后年均产铜约7.6万吨、产银约19.7吨、产钼约1188吨。 本项目拟建总规模100W光伏+100MW/500MWh储能，新建1座220kV升压站。规划场址位于西藏日喀则市品仁县秋 窝乡，本次新建项目交流侧容量为100.595MW，直流侧容量为106 ...

| 洛阳钼业 | -1.79 | -7.25亿元 | 有色金属 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国中免 | -2.44 | -7.13亿元 | 商贸零售 | | 澜起科技 | -1.56 | -7.01亿元 | 电子 | | 中信证券 | -1.3 | -6.76亿元 | 非银金融 | | 恩捷股份 | -4.83 | -6.35亿元 | 电力设备 | | 亿纬锂能 | -5.04 | -6.09亿元 | 电力设备 | | 比亚迪 | -1.75 | -5.95亿元 | 汽车 | | 网宿科技 | -2.95 | -5.91亿元 | 计算机 | | 天赐材料 | -3.66 | -5.69亿元 | 电力设备 | | 股票名称 | | 主力资金流向 | 所属行) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阳光电源 | -5.48 | -20.02亿元 | 电力设备 | | 宁德时代 | -4.47 | -18.87亿元 | 电力设备 | | 北方稀土 | -2.2 | -14.76亿元 | 有色金属 | | 兆易创新 | -0.62 | -11.52亿元 | 电子 ...