Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 0.9%, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to November 2025. Excluding automobiles, the total was 4.0 trillion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption sectors for the upcoming Spring Festival opportunities [5] - The report suggests a shift in retail industry logic from "adjusting input" to "adjusting output," with a focus on improving same-store sales and customer flow, which will enhance profit elasticity as the share of high-margin private brands increases [5] Summary by Sections Retail Sector Performance - In December 2025, retail sales of goods reached 3.9 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 0.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [5] - The growth rates for various categories in December included: - Grain and oil food retail sales grew by 3.9% - Beverage retail sales grew by 1.7% - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales declined by 2.9% [5] - In the optional consumer goods category, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales grew by 8.8% and 5.9%, respectively [5] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate slightly decreased, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The penetration rate was 26.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] - For the year, the growth rates for e-commerce categories were: food (14.5%), clothing (1.9%), and daily necessities (4.1%) [5] Investment Recommendations - Retail: Focus on companies like Bubugao, Huijia Times, Yonghui Supermarket, and Chongqing Department Store [5] - Cosmetics: Prefer high-end brand assets and consider low-positioned stocks like Maogeping and Yixian E-commerce [5] - Jewelry: Anticipate strong sales during the traditional gold sales peak in Q1, with recommendations for Laopu Gold and Mankalon [5] - Tourism: Focus on winter sports themes and the Spring Festival market, with recommendations for Changbai Mountain and Huangshan Tourism [5] - Education: Highlight opportunities in undervalued vocational education stocks like China Oriental Education and Action Education [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The luxury goods retail revenue in China is showing signs of recovery, with high-end brands like LVMH, Hermès, and Prada experiencing positive growth since Q2 2025 [15][16] - The global network literature market is witnessing rapid growth, particularly in Latin America, with WebNovel reaching nearly 400 million cumulative users by October 2025 [34][35] - The micro-drama and comic-drama market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, significantly surpassing the film box office revenue [37][38] - The probiotic market is expanding, with a focus on next-generation probiotics (NGPs) like AKK bacteria, which show significant potential in health applications [55][63] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free Shopping - Post-New Year duty-free shopping in Hainan shows strong growth, with sales reaching 3.89 billion yuan and a 49.6% year-on-year increase in shopping amount [31][33] - The high net worth individuals are expected to drive luxury consumption, with a notable increase in spending on preservation-type luxury goods [15][16] 2. Network Literature - The Chinese network literature market reached 49.55 billion yuan in 2024, with a 29.37% year-on-year growth, while the overseas market grew by 10.68% [34] - WebNovel has cultivated nearly 530,000 authors and over 820,000 original works, with a significant increase in user engagement [34][35] 3. Micro-Drama - The micro-drama and comic-drama market in China is expected to reach 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a 98% year-on-year growth [37][38] - The user base for micro-dramas is approaching 700 million, with a strong preference among female viewers [40][42] 4. Probiotics - The global probiotic market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7%, reaching 93.49 billion USD by 2028, with China's market expected to reach 134.89 billion yuan by 2024 [55][63] - Next-generation probiotics like AKK bacteria are gaining traction, with significant potential in health management and consumer interest [55][63]

Core Viewpoint - The new train operation schedule implemented by China Railway Beijing Group will enhance transportation efficiency and connectivity between regions, particularly benefiting the Northeast and the integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta areas [1] Group 1: New Train Services - Two pairs of high-speed trains will be added from Beijing Chaoyang to Changbai Mountain, facilitating personnel exchanges and economic interactions in the Northeast [1] - The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway will see an increase of five pairs of passenger trains, with the number of trains extending to Beijing Station rising from four to six pairs, improving interconnectivity [1] Group 2: Operational Enhancements - The introduction of 5.5 pairs of benchmark trains on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway and 3.5 pairs on the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway will enhance travel efficiency through a "fewer stops, higher speed" model [1] - The G375/80 train service from Shijiazhuang to Shanghai Hongqiao will be adjusted to G1211/20, achieving a high-speed operation of 350 km/h on the Beijing-Shanghai segment, allowing for a travel time of 4 hours and 56 minutes, marking the first time this route can be completed in under five hours [1] Group 3: New Connections - With the full opening of the Baoyin high-speed railway, the Beijing Railway Bureau will add 8.5 pairs of passenger trains via the Beijing-Baotou passenger dedicated line and Baoyin high-speed railway, reducing travel time from Beijing North to Yinchuan to 6 hours and 22 minutes [1] - New high-speed train services will also connect Beijing North to Xining, further strengthening ties between North China and Northwest regions [1]

Group 1 - The snow industry sector is undergoing adjustments, leading to a significant drop in the stock price of Xue Ren Group, which hit the daily limit down [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Dalian Shengya, Changbai Mountain, Overseas Chinese Town A, and Jingxue Energy, also experienced declines in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The concept of "Characteristic Towns" has seen a decline of 1.00%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with notable stocks like Huaxia Happiness and *ST Zhengping hitting the daily limit down [1] - Within the "Characteristic Towns" sector, major stocks such as Chengbang Co., Binjiang Group, and Palm Co. have also experienced significant declines, while only six stocks saw price increases, with Changbai Mountain, Haining Picheng, and Guai Bao Pet rising by 3.66%, 1.60%, and 1.47% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The "Characteristic Towns" sector experienced a net outflow of 984 million yuan from main funds today, with 27 stocks seeing net outflows, and seven stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in outflows [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Salt Lake Co., which saw a net outflow of 428 million yuan, followed by China Railway Construction and Suzhou Gaoxin with net outflows of 172 million yuan and 76 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Stocks with the highest net inflows included Changbai Mountain, Haining Picheng, and Guai Bao Pet, attracting net inflows of 52 million yuan, 31 million yuan, and 15 million yuan respectively [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changbai Mountain's stock has experienced a significant increase, with a 3.66% rise on January 14, reaching a price of 47.60 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 12.964 billion yuan [1] - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. is located in Jilin Province and was established on December 8, 2010, with its main business in the tourism service industry, including tourist transportation, travel agency services, and hot spring water development [1] - The revenue composition of Changbai Mountain includes 66.82% from tourist transportation, 24.09% from hotel services, 6.82% from other businesses, and 2.28% from travel agency services [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, the Fuqua Fund's ETF has increased its holdings in Changbai Mountain by 847,100 shares, totaling 2.2246 million shares, which represents 0.83% of the circulating shares [2] - The Fuqua China Securities Tourism Theme ETF has generated a floating profit of approximately 3.7373 million yuan today and a total of 6.9852 million yuan during the four consecutive days of stock price increase [2] - The Fuqua China Securities Tourism Theme ETF was established on July 15, 2021, with a current scale of 4.927 billion yuan, and has experienced a year-to-date loss of 0.35% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Changbai Mountain International has entered into a financing agreement with Guangze Group Hong Kong and Jiarun, which will provide a credit facility of up to HKD 39 million to support restructuring efforts [1] Group 2 - The financing agreement is set to be effective from January 12, 2026, indicating a planned timeline for the restructuring process [1] - The funds will primarily be used for the preparation and implementation of restructuring work, highlighting the company's focus on operational improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Changbai Mountain International (00989) has entered into a financing agreement with Guangze Group Hong Kong and Jiarun, which will provide a credit facility of up to HKD 39 million to support the preparation and implementation of restructuring efforts [1] Group 1 - The financing agreement was signed on January 12, 2026 [1] - The total credit amount provided by Guangze Group Hong Kong is capped at HKD 39 million [1] - The funds will primarily be used for the preparation and implementation of restructuring work, among other matters [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changbai Mountain's stock performance shows a significant increase in trading activity and financing, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in the tourism sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 9, Changbai Mountain's stock rose by 1.60%, with a trading volume of 388 million yuan [1]. - The financing buy-in amount for Changbai Mountain on the same day was 33.03 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 31.65 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 1.38 million yuan [1]. - As of January 9, the total financing and securities lending balance for Changbai Mountain was 288 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.39% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1]. Group 2: Business Overview - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. was established on December 8, 2010, and listed on August 22, 2014, primarily engaged in the tourism service industry, including passenger transport, travel agency services, and hot spring water development [1]. - The main revenue sources for the company are passenger transport (66.82%), hotel services (24.09%), other businesses (6.82%), and travel agency services (2.28%) [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Changbai Mountain was 45,900, an increase of 25.35% from the previous period [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Changbai Mountain reported a revenue of 636 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, with a growth of 1.05% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 144 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 42.53 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities highlights four marginal changes in the tourism and retail sectors that could activate their investment value, focusing on equity, management, licenses, and new economic models, supported by top-down policies promoting consumption [1]. Group 1: Asset Characteristics - Tourism and retail companies possess unique asset characteristics, with high replacement costs and relatively lower profit performance, indicating a special asset profile that combines high asset replacement value with low profit growth [2]. - Most tourism and retail companies have state-owned backgrounds, providing a strong safety margin for their assets [2]. Group 2: Alignment with Quantitative Investment - The characteristics of tourism and retail companies align with quantitative investment aesthetics, including high replacement costs, actual asset value, low stock prices, low institutional holdings, and ongoing policy support, leading to significant stock price elasticity and substantial total profit capacity [3]. Group 3: Broader Definition of Fundamentals - The concept of "fundamentals" extends beyond profit statements; the actual revaluation of assets in tourism and retail companies is a fundamental aspect that may not be reflected in profit statements but is evident in actual equity transaction cases, such as those involving Sanjiang Shopping and Yonghui Supermarket [4]. Group 4: Policy Impact on Consumption - Since 2023, multiple top-down policies have been introduced to promote consumption, emphasizing the importance of the consumption sector. The most direct implementation of these policies occurs in tourism and retail, exemplified by new consumption models or brands, referred to as "first-launch economy," which can be seen in scenarios like supermarket adjustments and the ice and snow economy [5]. - Investment recommendations include continuous attention to the four marginal changes in tourism and retail: equity changes, management changes, license changes, and new economic model changes, with specific company recommendations such as Guilin Tourism, Hong Kong China Travel, and Changbai Mountain, while also monitoring companies like Three Gorges Tourism, Tianfu Cultural Tourism, and Yinzhu Co. [5].