吉祥航空（603885.SH）2024 年年报点评 战略布局渐显成效，分红回购提升投资者信心 2025 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 2025 年 4 月 21 日公司发布 2024 年年报：2024 年公司营业收入 221 亿元， 同比+9.9%，归母净利润 9.1 亿元，同比+18%，扣非归母净利润 8.0 亿元，同比 +10.6%；4Q24 公司营业收入 46.0 亿元，同比+9.2%，归母净亏 3.6 亿元（4Q23 归母净亏 3.6 亿元），扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元（4Q23 扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元）。2024 年公司运力投放增长大于价格降幅，ASK 同比+17%、座公里收益同比-8%、客运收 入同比+8%，油价下降对冲降价影响，净利率同比+0.4pct。 ➢ 4Q24 国际运力投放同比大幅增长弥补价格下滑影响，油价同比回落抬升利润 中枢。四季度公司座公里营收 0.34 元，同比-5%，行业价格普遍下滑的环境下公司 单季度营收同比仍有 9%增速与公司国际航线运力投放加大有关（4Q24 国际港澳台 ASK 同比+129%、国内-3%）。四季度油价同比明显回落对冲了降价影响，4Q24 国 内航空煤油 ...

吉祥航空（603885.SH）2024 年年报点评 战略布局渐显成效，分红回购提升投资者信心 2025 年 04 月 24 日 ➢ 2025 年 4 月 21 日公司发布 2024 年年报：2024 年公司营业收入 221 亿元， 同比+9.9%，归母净利润 9.1 亿元，同比+18%，扣非归母净利润 8.0 亿元，同比 +10.6%；4Q24 公司营业收入 46.0 亿元，同比+9.2%，归母净亏 3.6 亿元（4Q23 归母净亏 3.6 亿元），扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元（4Q23 扣非归母净亏 3.9 亿元）。2024 年公司运力投放增长大于价格降幅，ASK 同比+17%、座公里收益同比-8%、客运收 入同比+8%，油价下降对冲降价影响，净利率同比+0.4pct。 ➢ 4Q24 国际运力投放同比大幅增长弥补价格下滑影响，油价同比回落抬升利润 中枢。四季度公司座公里营收 0.34 元，同比-5%，行业价格普遍下滑的环境下公司 单季度营收同比仍有 9%增速与公司国际航线运力投放加大有关（4Q24 国际港澳台 ASK 同比+129%、国内-3%）。四季度油价同比明显回落对冲了降价影响，4Q24 国 内航空煤油 ...

公司研究 吉祥航空（603885）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 24 年归母净利 9.1 亿，同比+17.5%，业绩持 续改善，积极分红回购 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 22,095 | 23,592 | 25,530 | 27,633 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 914 | 1,709 | 2,184 | 2,697 | | 同比增速(%) | 21.7% | 87.0% | 27.7% | 23.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.99 | 1.23 | | 市盈率(倍) | 31 | 16 | 13 | 10 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 23 日收盘价 航空 2025 年 04 月 ...

而国内航线运力相对控制，2024 年公司国内线ASK 同比仅增长2.50%，客座率同比增加2.72pct，国内 线RPK 实现同比增长5.80%。 公司座公里收益略下降，九元航空表现优秀 公司座公里收益略下降。2024 年公司客公里收益同比下降4.4%，座公里收益同比略下降2.3%。九元航 空经营表现优秀，同时品牌影响力逐步提升。2024 年九元航空实现营业收入42.66 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；净利润3.32 亿元，同比增长27.41%，高于其旅客量增速27.34%。 事件: 2025 年4 月21 日，吉祥航空发布2024 年年报： 2024 年，公司实现营业收入220.95 亿元，同比增长9.95%；归母净利润为9.14 亿元，同比增长21.69%。 扣非归母净利润为8.03 亿元，同比增长10.56%。 2024Q4，公司实现营业收入46.03 亿元，同比增长9.19%；归母净利润为-3.57 亿元，2023 年同期为-3.82 亿元，扣非归母净利润为-3.86 亿元，2023 年同期为-3.93 亿元。 投资要点: 国际航线加速开拓、运力迅猛增长，需求快速提升2024 年公司加速国际航线布局，新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company experienced a significant recovery in operations, with passenger capacity increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and international routes seeing a remarkable growth of 141.1% [4]. - Despite the growth in business volume, the average fare per passenger decreased by 8.4% year-on-year due to high competition and a high base effect from the previous year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total operating costs reached 18.98 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year, while the unit cost of non-fuel expenses decreased by 5.2% to 0.216 yuan [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.13 billion yuan, 1.69 billion yuan, and 2.24 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 1.02 yuan by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [8][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.90 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's FY24 results met expectations, with operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 914 million, up 21.7% [1][4]. - Despite a significant drop in oil prices in Q4 2024, the company reported a net loss of RMB 357 million, which was a slight improvement of 6.7% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics, resource optimization, and increased utilization of wide-body aircraft, leading to an upward shift in profitability and ROE levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 22.095 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 914 million, marking a 21.7% increase [1][5]. - The company’s operating costs rose to RMB 18.978 billion, a 10.5% increase, while gross profit increased by RMB 233 million (8.1%) to RMB 3.117 billion [3][5]. Capacity and Utilization - The company focused on increasing capacity on international routes in 2024, resulting in a 17.3% increase in supply and a 19.9% increase in demand, with an overall passenger load factor of 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points [2][3]. - The average aircraft utilization increased by 1.2 hours to 11.5 hours, contributing to a decrease in unit costs [3][5]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 20% and 8% to RMB 1.533 billion and RMB 2.330 billion, respectively, due to anticipated delays in aircraft deliveries and ongoing weak revenue levels [4][24]. - The target price has been revised to RMB 16.90, based on a PB ratio of 3.7x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous estimate of 4x [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, up 17.52% year-on-year [2] - The increase in revenue is attributed to a rise in turnover volume, with a total turnover volume growth of 19.9% in 2024, while the unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.6% [2] - Domestic passenger load factor remains high, while the load factor for international routes has room for improvement [2] - The fleet size expanded to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with an increase in fleet utilization to 11.53 hours, which is higher than the level in 2019 [2] - Unit costs decreased due to falling oil prices and improved utilization rates, with the unit cost per available seat kilometer down by 5.8% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 18.8% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.095 billion yuan, a 9.95% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.52% increase year-on-year [4] - The quarterly net profit for 2024 was 3.7 million, 1.15 million, 7.8 million, and -3.6 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +127%, +212%, -27%, and +6.7% respectively [2] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 14.1%, with a projected gross margin increase to 15.4% in 2025 [4] Operational Metrics - The company’s domestic passenger load factor reached 87.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor was 76.4%, with potential for further improvement [2] - The fleet utilization rate improved by 1.19 hours year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] Cost Management - The average fuel price decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, contributing to a reduction in unit costs [2] - The unit cost per available seat kilometer was 0.339 yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs at 0.123 yuan, a decrease of 7.4% [2] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.4%, and further growth expected in subsequent years [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 914 million yuan, up 17.52%, aligning with expectations [6] - The company plans to increase shareholder returns through a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 414 million yuan, which constitutes 45% of the net profit. Additionally, the company has repurchased shares worth 121 million yuan, with the combined total of repurchases and dividends accounting for 78.13% of net profit [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 20.096 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.855 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 778 million yuan in 2023 to 1.619 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 77.1% in 2025 [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.34 yuan in 2023 to 0.74 yuan in 2025 [5][7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.9% in 2023 to 15.7% in 2025 [5][7] Operational Data - The company’s capacity (ASK) is expected to grow by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024, with a recovery to 177.9% of the 2019 levels for international routes [6] - The passenger load factor is anticipated to increase by 2.0 percentage points compared to 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company benefited from an increase in turnover, achieving a revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, up 17.52% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor remains high, while there is still room for improvement in the load factor of international routes [2] - The fleet size has expanded, with utilization rates exceeding pre-2019 levels [2] - Unit costs have decreased due to falling oil prices and improved utilization rates [2] - The impact of tariff policies has increased uncertainty regarding industry supply and costs [2] - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 18.8% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.095 billion yuan, a 9.95% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.52% increase year-on-year [4] - The quarterly net profits for 2024 were 370 million, 115 million, 780 million, and -360 million yuan, showing significant fluctuations [2] - The company’s total turnover increased by 19.9% year-on-year, while unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.6% [2] Operational Metrics - The passenger load factor reached 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a load factor of 87.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The fleet size grew to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 10 aircraft [2] - Fleet utilization improved to 11.53 hours, an increase of 1.19 hours year-on-year [2] Cost Structure - The unit cost per available seat kilometer decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs down by 7.4% [2] - The average price of aviation fuel fell by 7.0% year-on-year, contributing to the reduction in unit costs [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.58, 0.78, and 0.93 yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are projected to be 22.13, 16.47, and 13.87 times, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 22.095 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, with a net profit of 914 million yuan, up 17.52% from the previous year [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for its main business was 13.51%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Juneyao Airlines' subsidiary, Juneyao Air, achieved a revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, representing a nearly 60% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 332 million yuan, up over 27% [1] Industry Context - The civil aviation industry saw a reduction in losses by 20.6 billion yuan last year, with expectations for further profitability improvements this year [4] - Major state-owned airlines reported record revenues but collectively incurred a net loss of 6.159 billion yuan, a significant reduction of over 50% in losses [4] Shareholder Returns - Juneyao Airlines repurchased 25.3795 million shares, accounting for 1.15% of the total share capital, with a repurchase amount nearing 300 million yuan [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with a total cash dividend of 414 million yuan, representing a cash dividend ratio of 45.33% [5] Operational Highlights - The number of passengers increased by 12.26% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional passenger numbers growing by 4.74%, 142.21%, and 15.95%, respectively [6] - The overall seat occupancy rate reached 84.62%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, with international routes achieving a seat occupancy rate of 76.04%, up 5.65 percentage points [6] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its international flight offerings, with nearly 40% of flights in the new season being international, and plans to increase its route network to over 300 routes covering 15 countries [7] - Juneyao Airlines aims to enhance its international marketing capabilities and develop a multi-dimensional ancillary product system, including optimized seat selection and pet travel products [8] Market Insights - The airline industry is experiencing price volatility due to market demand and competition, with a focus on flexible pricing strategies based on seasonal demand [9] - The departure of Fang Wei from the top ten shareholders of Juneyao Airlines was noted, with the chairman commenting on the company's focus on establishing a dual-brand strategy [9]