Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a significant increase in passenger demand and flight operations, driven by factors such as longer holiday periods and the recovery of the inbound and outbound tourism market [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts that during the Spring Festival period, the national civil aviation passenger transport volume may reach 95 million, with a total of 780,000 flights expected, representing a 5% year-on-year increase in daily average flights [1]. - The travel demand is anticipated to rise due to the combination of holiday length and the recovery of tourism, leading to improved passenger load factors and ticket prices in the civil aviation industry [1][6]. Group 2: Airline Operations - China International Airlines plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, a 10.1% increase from 2025, with 9 C919 aircraft deployed on various routes [2]. - China Eastern Airlines intends to utilize 822 aircraft, including 14 C919 jets, executing 125,000 flights, with a focus on increasing capacity in domestic and international markets [3]. - China Southern Airlines aims to operate over 126,000 flights, with significant increases in domestic and international routes, including the deployment of C919 aircraft [3]. Group 3: Market Demand - The ticket booking data indicates a peak in demand, with over 5.21 million domestic tickets and 1.61 million international tickets booked, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 22% and 9%, respectively [5]. - The trend of combining family visits with tourism is emerging, leading to sustained demand for travel during the Spring Festival [5]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The civil aviation industry is expected to achieve a balanced supply-demand relationship, with a potential increase in profitability as the market stabilizes [6]. - Factors such as the recovery of business travel, the aging population's consumption potential, and the steady recovery of the inbound tourism market are likely to create a supply-demand gap, which could enhance airline revenue levels [6].

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 2026.02. 02 本文字数：2338，阅读时长大约4分钟 2月2日，为期40天的2026年春运正式拉开帷幕。由于返乡探亲、学生放假、旅游度假多重客流叠加，使得春运首日就呈现出需求旺盛、出行目的地多 元等特征。 民航局数据显示，今天全民航预计保障航班19080班，运输旅客219万人次。据航旅纵横大数据，春运第一天的国内航线机票预订量超186万张，比去 年春运同期增长约5%；出入境航线机票预订量超25万张，比去年春运同期增长约7%。 记者采访的多家航司和旅游平台均预计，在史上最长春节、亲子游需求火热、外国游客"反向春运"体验中国年等多重因素叠加下，今年春节有望刷 新"最热春节"纪录，民航旅客量也有望创历史新高。 国内部分航线已售罄 在上海虹桥国际机场记者看到，早晨7点多开始，2026年春运的首个进出港航班高峰就已到来，出发大厅区域旅客往来密集。 东航地服部虹桥旅客服务中心副总经理熊杰对记者介绍，连日来东航日均服务的进出港旅客数量持续增长，特别是随着上海市中小学放假，携带孩子出 行的家庭旅客和无陪伴儿童数量明显增多。今天春运首日，东航的旅客运输量将突破42万人次。 东航营销部网络收 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to set records for passenger volume and flight operations, driven by a combination of family visits, student holidays, and tourism demand [1][2] - Domestic flight bookings have increased by approximately 5% year-on-year, while international flight bookings have risen by about 7% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - On the first day of the Spring Festival travel period, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) projected 19,080 flights and 2.19 million passengers [1] - Eastern Airlines reported a significant increase in passenger numbers, with over 420,000 travelers expected on the first day of the Spring Festival [3] - Popular domestic routes include those to Harbin, Changchun, Sanya, and Kunming, with seat occupancy rates exceeding 85% [4] Group 2: International Travel Trends - International routes to destinations such as Paris, Madrid, and London have seen occupancy rates above 90% [4] - The demand for Southeast Asian destinations remains high, with airlines increasing flights to locations like Singapore and Bali [7] - There has been a notable increase in foreign tourists visiting China for the Spring Festival, with significant growth in visitors from countries like Argentina and the Netherlands [7] Group 3: Travel Capacity and Operations - Airlines are ramping up capacity to meet the surge in demand, with Hainan Airlines increasing its capacity by approximately 7% compared to the previous year [5] - Major airlines are deploying wide-body aircraft on key routes to accommodate the increased passenger volume [5] - The peak travel period is expected to begin on February 10, with significant increases in flight and passenger numbers anticipated [8][9] Group 4: Pricing Trends - Flight prices are expected to fluctuate, with the lowest prices occurring around February 16, following the initial travel rush [11] - Travelers can save on ticket prices by adjusting their travel dates, with potential savings of up to 30% for certain routes if booked strategically [11]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - During the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, the company aims to enhance passenger experience through precise capacity allocation, service upgrades, and product innovations, expecting to operate approximately 18,000 flights and carry around 2.9 million passengers [1][8]. Group 1: Capacity and Route Adjustments - The company is focusing its capacity on popular travel routes, with increased flight frequencies to destinations such as Changbai Mountain, Harbin, Sanya, Beihai, and Xishuangbanna [3]. - Specific route adjustments include increasing flights from Shanghai to Changbai Mountain to 3 daily, Harbin to 5 daily, and Sanya to 5 daily, with some flights operated by wide-body aircraft for enhanced comfort [3]. - International routes to Southeast Asia, including Hanoi, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur, will also see increased frequency, ensuring at least one daily flight on these routes [3]. Group 2: Service Enhancements and Innovations - The company is upgrading its service from "smooth travel" to "pleasant travel experience" by optimizing ground services and retraining cabin crew to improve emergency response and service friendliness [4]. - A new "Member Peace of Mind Refund" service allows members to cancel tickets without fees up to 12 hours before departure, significantly extending the previous 2-hour limit [4]. - The introduction of the "Reverse Reunion 2 Flight Card" product caters to off-peak travel trends, allowing members to redeem flights between Shanghai and various cities before and after the Spring Festival [5]. Group 3: Brand and Customer Engagement - The "Pet Travel" service has been expanded to include more routes and relaxed restrictions on certain dog breeds, along with flexible policies for pet health certificates during the holiday period [7]. - The company has revamped its airport lounges with a festive theme and introduced a new brand mascot, "Jibao Dengdeng," to enhance emotional connections with passengers [7]. - The mascot, designed as a lively pony with a detachable mini suitcase, aims to convey warmth and companionship during travel [9]. Group 4: Overall Strategy and Commitment - The company is committed to enhancing its comprehensive support capabilities and travel experience through a multi-faceted approach, aligning with its brand philosophy of "Heartfelt Fortune, Auspicious Life" [8]. - The focus remains on operational refinement, humanized service, and youthful branding while ensuring safety and contributing to the overall value enhancement of the civil aviation industry [8].

北京商报讯（记者 关子辰 牛清妍）2月2日，记者从吉祥航空获悉，春运期间吉祥航空及旗下九元航空预计执行航 班约1.8万班次，承运旅客约290万人次。 国际及地区航线上，吉祥航空通过提升飞机利用率、合理增开夜间航班等方式，确保上海至河内、曼谷、吉隆 坡、槟城等东南亚主要航线每日至少一班；新开通的上海—斗湖（仙本那）航线则维持每周三班的稳定运营。此 外，上海—巴厘岛、上海—新加坡等需求旺盛的航线也投入了宽体机执飞。 吉祥航空春运机票预售数据显示，旅客出行偏好鲜明，地域特征明显。 国内方面，"冰雪游"与"暖冬游"持续引领出行风向，长白山、哈尔滨等北方冰雪目的地以及三亚、北海等南方温 暖海滨城市的客流显著攀升。西双版纳、南宁等地部分航线在春节高峰时段已接近售罄。国际方面，泰国、新加 坡、越南、印尼巴厘岛等东南亚目的地市场需求稳健增长。 为高效应对客流高峰，吉祥航空对整体运力进行系统化调配与加密安排。国内热门旅游航线方面，上海—长白山 增至每日3班；上海—哈尔滨达到每日5班，部分班次由宽体机执飞；上海—三亚加密至每日5班，其中每日两班从 虹桥机场起飞并使用宽体机执飞；上海—西双版纳增至每日3班；上海—北海增至每日2班。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 春运客流持续增长，油运盈利 Q1 大增 [Table_Industry] 运输 本报告导读： 航空：2025 年主业盈利改善符合预期，春运客流持续增长，旺季表现可期。建议布 局超级周期长逻辑。油运：预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增数倍，期待超级牛市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《公路政策优化可期，公路法修正将是信 号》2026.01.26 运输《春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《全球经济温和复苏，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...